The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump may be planning to announce his 2024 run on Jan 19th while fleeing the country in Air Force One and breaching coronavirus restrictions. (Not joking.)

Donald Trump could be planning Turnberry trip as Scots airport told to expect a high-flyer the day before Joe Biden’s inauguration

Air traffic controllers receive details of the arrival of a plane with a US special call sign weeks in advance but are not told exactly which plane when the booking is made. The source at Prestwick airport, who asked to remain anonymous, said: “There is a booking for an American military version of the Boeing 757 on January 19, the day before the inauguration. That’s one that’s normally used by the Vice-President but often used by the First Lady. Presidential flights tend to get booked far in advance, because of the work that has to be done around it.”

Veteran NBC reporter Ken Dilanian tweeted: “Trump may announce for 2024 on inauguration day. Either way, he won’t attend the inauguration and does not plan to invite Biden to the White House or even call him.”

White House spokesman Judd Deere said Trump has not finalised his plans for inauguration day.

If Trump does fly to Scotland he could be in breach of coronavirus restrictions. Trump Turnberry is effectively closed until February 5 due to Tier 4 rules, according to the resort’s website.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1373067785035726850

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

As I've said, I'll believe a Trump run when I see it. I feel like he'll keep teasing but never actually get in.

I strongly suspect it depends on how his finances are doing. (Presuming health and criminal challenges don't overwhelm him.)

If the GOP continue to let him drain their donations into his private coffers, he likely won't bother. ("Donate now to help Donald Trump elect Nikki Haley!") If they push back, he'll either run and steal their crop of hateful idiots again, or he'll just flat-out sabotage them ("Donate now to Real Republican Donald Trump, not backstabbing traitor Nikki Haley!") There's also a chance he'll hold out, or try that sort of political extortion, in order to collect on a big bribe. ("Large Republican Donor buy multiple Trump properties in deal worth $30 billion! And in completely unrelated news, Trump endorses Jeb Bush for President.")

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump was convinced that he had to take Pence to get Evangelical support. He has doubtless deeply regretted that decision ever since, and certainly doesn't think he "needs" to win over Evangelicals or establishment Republicans.  I'm also skeptical that he will choose anyone he sees as a possible rival (aka. an older white male perceived as successful), and he isn't going to let what's left of the GOP establishment dictate terms to him.

He's going to pick someone he likes, who doesn't seem threatening to his ego, and who he perceives as giving him an edge. He might go for a younger white male who offers sufficient flattery, but a non-white male candidate like Allen West or Kristi Noem, who is sufficiently ingratiating and flattering, seems more likely to me.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1419799686823792644

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

How much do you want to bet, after she wins the nomination, all the Republicans on Atlas who are criticizing her now would line up in lockstep behind her.

Blue avatars will always find their rationalizing.  You just keep consuming right-wing media and hearing an array of often-contradictory justifications for her presidency, and when you land on the one that works for you, you cling to it like Linus to his blanket, because that justification is the one thing standing between you and having to reckon with the failure of not just your ideology but a large part of your identity.

It happened with Trump and it will happen again with Greene if she succeeds.

I'm skeptical. Republicult misogyny runs deep. I think there'd be a fair number of "she's terrible" takes that are truly motivated not by any disagreement with her murderous ignorance but with her lack of a Y chromosome.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Libertarian Party has its first potential candidate, "Part of the Problem" Podcast host Dave Smith.

Smith calls out Jo Jorgensen, claiming that she should've taken a larger anti-mandate, anti-lockdown approach.

https://reason.com/podcast/2021/07/28/dave-smith-libertarians-vs-big-tech-big-government-and-other-libertarians/

So at least one libertarian faction will be running on the "COVID didn't kill enough Americans" platform. Bold choice.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-on-9-11-teases-2024-run

Asked by a police officer if he plans to launch a comeback in 2024, or perhaps run for New York City mayor, Trump responded "that’s a tough question."

But then he said "actually, for me, it's an easy question. I mean, I know what I'm going to do, but I'm not supposed to be talking about it yet from the standpoint of campaign finance laws, which, frankly, are ridiculous."

And the former president, as he’s said numerous times already this year of his potential campaign decision, added that "I think you're going to be happy."

I can't shake the idea that one of the scenarios Trump (and his inner circle, whatever that consists of these days)  may be fishing for is some sort of immense bribe from the GOP in return for his support (aka not guaranteeing they lose - "You've got a good shot at beating Bad Biden, it would be a shame if you let the Democrats steal another Election because you weren't willing to help Me win it for you").

He could, at a minimum, get epic amounts of grift and flattery, along with promises of pardons, jobs for family members and allies, and maybe even an impressive sinecure for himself. And if the GOP nominee loses, he can blame them and keep the grift going that way. ("I would have won, but they wouldn't let me run. Click now to donate your life savings to the Trump Saves The Republic campaign!")

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1483810638094811139

Fingers crossed.

??

The implication is that Trump will run as an attempt to escape punishment for his crimes. Either he hopes that his incoherent screams of "political persecution" will somehow bear fruit, or that if he does manage to again gain the ability to abuse the office of the President, he will either be protected by it, or abuse it further in order to quash investigations against him or punish those conducting them. It's a shallow, obviously and reprehensible motive, but Republicans are rather shallow, obvious and reprehensible themselves, so that won't harm his chances any.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

At the very least, they will do the ground work so that they can run if Trump falls apart (politically or physically). If Bush 41 could go from 88% approval to losing re-election, Trump can lose the nomination by a landslide. Not that he necessarily will, but if he has a health crisis, or is revealed to have secretly been an anamatronic operated by Putin's pet cockatoo, those Republicans with presidential aspirations will want to have their campaign apparatus in place. So I think we will see other Republicans preparing to run, and delaying their announcements either until Trump is out, or as long as possible.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1503741286347595781

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tucker Carlson visiting Iowa:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-iowa-summit-raising-eyebrows-and-speculation-of-a-presidential-run/

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1518992834384343041?s=20&t=LN08rUUxu...

Trump is running in 2024 so he won't run then, but he would be a formidable candidate in 2028.

Given that Tucker's median viewer (conservative, male, age 68) will be dead by then, I doubt it. (And that is with an average life expectancy of 74 before taking into account how many of their supporters Tucker and his fellow conservative cult leaders killed with pro-COVID garbage in the last few years.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

David Axelrod takes the knives out on Biden, says his age would be a liabilty should he run for a second term.

David Axelrod, chief strategist for former President Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns, told the New York Times in an interview that President Biden's age would be a liability if he runs for a second term in 2024.

Is this is a sign that Obama does not want Biden to run again?

And the Democratic Party was is such great shape after two Obama terms...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

Never thought about this, but why not change his registration back to NY or Bedminster, NJ?

Cheney did something similar in 2000, when has was actually a TX resident prior and officially went back to WY.

In FL Trump is under the jurisdiction of a friendly state attorney general. In NY or NJ, this would not be the case. While the American justice system is rather reluctant to prosecute rich white men, Trump has a lot of enemies, has committed a lot of crimes, and is also paranoid.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The latest on Trump's timeline:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-not-expected-to-announce-white-house-run-in-july-2022-7

Former President Donald Trump has backed off considering a presidential run announcement in July, a Republican strategist who spoke with two of Trump's advisors told Insider.
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Trump's advisers are urging him to delay an announcement until 2023, but a chief perspective for Trump would be that of of his wife, Melania Trump, according to the GOP strategist who spoke to Trump's advisors.

I wonder if his advisors are worried that if he announces before November, anything short of a stellar GOP result will likely be blamed on him (even if Roe v. Wade will probably be a bigger factor).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I still think Chris Christie might give it a go. On the other hand, he seems pretty set on denying Trump the nomination again, so he might sit it out if the field is too crowded.

I think he’s more likely to run and drop out early, as he basically said he wants to be in a debate with Trump to try and kamikaze him like he did to Rubio.

Despite his skill at BSing, Donald, especially post 2017 Donald, feels like someone who could either collapse or explode under a verbal assault that doesn't care about future goodwill or playing nice. I would like to see what Christie could do.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Trump goes to jail, who is the nominee?

Trump.

Likely accurate (although I have the faint hope that if he manages to get himself silenced and under house arrest from defying protection orders, that might change), but there still the question of: If Trump dies, or has an incapacitating health crisis, who is the nominee?  (Insofar as any of the Republican candidates are serious about getting the nomination next year, I suspect they're betting on this happening.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Jill Stein trying to deliver America to our enemies once more.

“Our democracy is on life support,” Stein wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, previewing a Nov. 21 campaign kickoff.

And who better to help finish it off, than this woman: