The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[NewYorkExpress]

Mike Pence delivers speech at Reagan Library, states he's proud of not overturning 2020 election.

Former Vice President Mike Pence reiterated at a speech at the Reagan Library on Thursday he did not have the constitutional authority to stop the count of the electoral votes on Jan. 6.

“Now there are those in our party who believe that in my position as presiding officer over the joint session that I possess the authority to reject or return electoral votes certified by the states,” Pence said. "The Constitution provides the vice president with no such authority before the joint session of Congress."

....

“And the truth is, there is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president,” Pence said. “And I will always be proud that we did our part on that tragic day to reconvene the Congress and fulfilled our duty under the Constitution.”

I think it's probably safe to assume Pence isn't running. I'd expect a formal announcement saying as much around the midterms, if not shortly afterwards.

[Pericles]

Pence's technical point about the Vice Presidency makes absolute sense, there was no way he could have overturned the election. The thing I don't know is whether he agrees with Trump that their defeat was a fraud. Maybe Republicans are dumb enough to believe the election was rigged but smart enough to accept the VP can't throw out results they don't like, but I'm not betting on it.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Pence's technical point about the Vice Presidency makes absolute sense, there was no way he could have overturned the election. The thing I don't know is whether he agrees with Trump that their defeat was a fraud. Maybe Republicans are dumb enough to believe the election was rigged but smart enough to accept the VP can't throw out results they don't like, but I'm not betting on it.

There's a sort of middle ground that many Republicans are embracing, wherein they don't endorse the 'Mike Lindell' brand of 'the election was stolen by Democrats! Working with China! Or Iran! Or Italy!' - but they're more of the thinking that 'the election was stolen because it was too easy for Democrats to vote!'

Which, stripped of the rhetoric, is essentially true: vote-by-mail was a massive boon for Democrats. And it's in the Republicans' interest to curtail stuff like that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pence's technical point about the Vice Presidency makes absolute sense, there was no way he could have overturned the election. The thing I don't know is whether he agrees with Trump that their defeat was a fraud. Maybe Republicans are dumb enough to believe the election was rigged but smart enough to accept the VP can't throw out results they don't like, but I'm not betting on it.

There's a sort of middle ground that many Republicans are embracing, wherein they don't endorse the 'Mike Lindell' brand of 'the election was stolen by Democrats! Working with China! Or Iran! Or Italy!' - but they're more of the thinking that 'the election was stolen because it was too easy for Democrats to vote!'

Which, stripped of the rhetoric, is essentially true: vote-by-mail was a massive boon for Democrats. And it's in the Republicans' interest to curtail stuff like that.

While true, it isn't so universal. Let's remember that mail-in ballots in Arizona, counted well after election day, helped Trump significantly close the gap in that state. It's another instance the GOP failing to recognize nuance in a situation, as per usual.

[2016]

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem attended Trumps Rally in Wellington, Ohio tonight!

Trump/Noem 2024?

[brucejoel99]

Pence's technical point about the Vice Presidency makes absolute sense, there was no way he could have overturned the election. The thing I don't know is whether he agrees with Trump that their defeat was a fraud. Maybe Republicans are dumb enough to believe the election was rigged but smart enough to accept the VP can't throw out results they don't like, but I'm not betting on it.

There's a sort of middle ground that many Republicans are embracing, wherein they don't endorse the 'Mike Lindell' brand of 'the election was stolen by Democrats! Working with China! Or Iran! Or Italy!' - but they're more of the thinking that 'the election was stolen because it was too easy for Democrats to vote!'

Which, stripped of the rhetoric, is essentially true: vote-by-mail was a massive boon for Democrats. And it's in the Republicans' interest to curtail stuff like that.

While true, it isn't so universal. Let's remember that mail-in ballots in Arizona, counted well after election day, helped Trump significantly close the gap in that state. It's another instance the GOP failing to recognize nuance in a situation, as per usual.

This. So much this. Study after study after study after study has shown that vote-by-mail doesn't inherently serve to advantageously benefit one political party over another. It's only now "a massive boon for Democrats" in the sense that the recent GOP rhetoric on the matter - which is inherently predicated upon the falsehood that vote-by-mail actually does inherently serve to benefit the Democrats & hurt the GOP - has served to utterly depress vote-by-mail turn-out among Republicans & thereby cause the partisan split that has seen Republicans become significantly less likely than Democrats to vote-by-mail & Democrats become significantly more likely than Republicans to cut into their opponents' lead during canvassing periods as a result. In effect, this GOP belief was a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, in that in spite of a literal litany of evidence to the contrary, they believed that vote-by-mail benefits Democrats to the detriment of the GOP, & so attempted to suppress vote-by-mail, attempts which saw the vast majority of vote-by-mail ballots get cast by Democrats. If they hadn't spread such falsehoods to begin with, then more Republicans would've opted to vote-by-mail, thus serving to disprove the lie that vote-by-mail is "a massive boon for Democrats" which is "in the Republicans' interest to curtail." Sigh.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump teased 2024 at his rally yesterday:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/at-ohio-rally-trump-knocks-biden-on-border-hints-at-2024-plans.html

“We won the election twice and it’s possible we’ll have to win it a third time. It’s possible,” he said.

Trump also talked 2024 on Friday:

https://www.inquisitr.com/c/donald-trump-2024-announcement-distant-future

Former President Donald Trump appeared on Newsmax TV's "Wake Up America" on Friday and teased an announcement about his plans for 2024, Breitbart reported.

I’ll be making an announcement in the not too distant future,” he said.

According to Trump, people will be "very happy" about his plans for 2024, although he did not indicate whether they involved another presidential bid.

His son Eric also commented on it earlier in the week:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-run-presidency-in-2024-says-son-eric-2021-6

Eric Trump on Wednesday told conservative cable network Newsmax on Wednesday: "You have a lot of people out there who say 'I really miss Trump. I might not like every single tweet he sent but the guy was incredibly effective.'"

"Every single day that Biden messes up our nation, I think it further incentivizes my father and frankly our entire family to do it again," he said.

"We're going to walk through that door, I'm telling you. We're going to walk through that door," Trump added.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley just spent three days in Iowa:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/24/haley-praises-trump-in-iowa-speech-laced-with-2024-intrigue-496198

Haley’s 30-minute speech before the 500-person Iowa GOP dinner comes as she embarks on a three-day swing across the state. The former South Carolina governor is holding fundraisers for Gov. Kim Reynolds and two members of the state’s congressional delegation, Reps. Randy Feenstra and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, all of whom are up for reelection next year. She is also holding events with former state House Speaker Linda Upmeyer and the Story County GOP.

[NewYorkExpress]

Rob Portman says Trump is still the leader of the Republican Party

GOP Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio) on Sunday said former President Trump is “definitely the leader” of the Republican Party, one day after Trump held his first post-presidential rally in Ohio.

Portman, asked by ABC's "This Week" host Jon Karl about Trump, said the ex-president remains the party leader given his “high popularity among the Republican base.”

“That’s what you saw last night, I think. You saw a big turnout,” Portman said.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Tom Cotton launches PAC to get veterans (himself) into Congress (the Presidency).

[NewYorkExpress]

Wisconsin Republicans seem to temporarily be turning away from fealty to Trump

It could have upended the Wisconsin Republican Party’s annual convention, given Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP. Just as the state party gathered this past weekend, Trump issued a statement tearing into the state Assembly speaker, Robin Vos, and two other Republican lawmakers for doing too little to promote his election conspiracies.

But in a rare setback for his post-presidential interventions in the GOP, Trump in Wisconsin appeared to shoot a blank. When Vos and Devin LeMahieu, the state’s Senate majority leader, took the stage on Saturday in front of some of the party’s most fervent pro-Trump activists, it was as though Trump had said nothing at all. There were no boos. Vos drew applause. Convention-goers dismissed an effort to censure him.


In Wisconsin at least, Trump failed to set off the same intra-party chaos that has marked his efforts elsewhere. Worse for him, despite the former president’s harsh personal criticism, there were signs his comments were dismissed with a roll of the eyes.


“I just think it’s been going on for so long that people are kind of tired of it,” said Tony Kurtz, a GOP assemblyman from rural Juneau County, which went for Trump last year by nearly 30 percentage points.

For more than seven months since he lost the election, Trump has engaged in a crusade against Republicans who crossed him, an effort he invigorated with a rally in Ohio on Saturday, where he traveled to campaign against Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, who voted to impeach him earlier this year. In most cases, the Republican base has responded zealously. But here, at a convention center attached to a water park, the lack of interest from the rank-and-file suggested some of the first, tentative signs of weariness of Trump’s smash-mouth political act.

[NewYorkExpress]

More Republicans, now including Trey Grayson and Bill Barr, are calling Trump out for his lies in 2020.

The more we learn about Donald Trump’s baseless, false and discredited claims about the 2020 election, the more baseless, false and discredited those claims have become.

Just consider the revelations over the past week — from Republicans:

In Michigan, a GOP-led investigation by its state Senate concluded that it “found no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud in Michigan’s prosecution of the 2020 election.” (Remember, Biden won Michigan by more than 150,000 votes.)

Regarding Arizona, a report co-authored by former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson criticized the so-called “audit” of the election results in that state, saying it “does not meet the standards of a proper election recount or audit,” and that it’s being conducted by an “inexperienced, unqualified contractor.”

And over the weekend, ABC’s Jon Karl writing for the Atlantic had former Trump Attorney General Bill Barr debunking Trump’s claims about the 2020 election results. “If there was evidence of fraud, I had no motive to suppress it. But my suspicion all the way along was that there was nothing there,” Barr said. “It was all bullsh!#.”

This is pretty good clue, that should Trump run in 2024, he won't have unanimous hold over the Republican Party after all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

More Republicans, now including Trey Grayson and Bill Barr, are calling Trump out for his lies in 2020.

The more we learn about Donald Trump’s baseless, false and discredited claims about the 2020 election, the more baseless, false and discredited those claims have become.

Just consider the revelations over the past week — from Republicans:

In Michigan, a GOP-led investigation by its state Senate concluded that it “found no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud in Michigan’s prosecution of the 2020 election.” (Remember, Biden won Michigan by more than 150,000 votes.)

Regarding Arizona, a report co-authored by former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson criticized the so-called “audit” of the election results in that state, saying it “does not meet the standards of a proper election recount or audit,” and that it’s being conducted by an “inexperienced, unqualified contractor.”

And over the weekend, ABC’s Jon Karl writing for the Atlantic had former Trump Attorney General Bill Barr debunking Trump’s claims about the 2020 election results. “If there was evidence of fraud, I had no motive to suppress it. But my suspicion all the way along was that there was nothing there,” Barr said. “It was all bullsh!#.”

This is pretty good clue, that should Trump run in 2024, he won't have unanimous hold over the Republican Party after all.

I guess only having 90%+ of the party backing him technically isn't unanimous, so you're right in a way.

[Mr. Morden]

Tom Cotton launches PAC to get veterans (himself) into Congress (the Presidency).

This story talks about that, plus other maneuverings in Iowa:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/28/2024-iowa-caucus-republican-campaign-496418

Coinciding with his trip to Iowa this week, Cotton is set to launch a program aimed at bolstering military veterans such as Miller-Meeks. As part of the effort, the Arkansas Republican is expected to campaign for the freshman congresswoman, raise money for her and fund attack ads against her eventual Democratic opponent.

Some are even tapping political strategists to help them navigate the state. Pence has been working with Chip Saltsman, the GOP operative who helped oversee former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s 2008 caucus win. Pompeo is being advised by former U.S. Ambassador Chuck Larson, a past Iowa legislator and state GOP chair. The list of other operatives who’ve received outreach from prospective presidential hopefuls includes Jimmy Centers, a former top Branstad aide.

For now, the most visible political activity is organized around the 2022 midterm elections, with potential hopefuls using down-ballot contests to earn chits and introduce themselves to future caucus-goers. Those on the ground say Haley has been among the most aggressive in bolstering candidates, sending out emails and text messages raising money for Gov. Kim Reynolds and the state’s congressional delegation. Haley also campaigned for several Iowa lawmakers during the 2020 election.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie has a new book on the way:

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/chris-christies-republican-rescue-book-coming-this-fall/2862293/

“Republican Rescue: Saving the Party from Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden" will be published Nov. 16, Threshold Editions announced Monday. Threshold, a conservative imprint of Simon & Schuster, is calling the book “a timely and urgent guide to moving the party forward.”
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“As a Republican insider, Christie feels compelled to weigh in on the past four years, but especially the past few months, and explain how these falsehoods, and the grievance politics they support, cost his party the House, the Senate and the White House in two years, for the first time since Herbert Hoover,” Threshold announced.

“Christie delivers a frank insider’s account of that election and the tragic descent of some members of the Republican Party into cowardice and madness, as well as no-nonsense solutions for how to recover the party’s image and integrity, and how to beat back the ultra-liberal policies of Joe Biden’s Democrats."

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul:

https://www.lex18.com/news/coronavirus/paul-keeps-up-complaints-about-handling-of-covid-19-pandemic

Paul said Tuesday that he’s focused on his reelection campaign, and said the national GOP political scene will be “upended until President Trump decides what he’s going to do.”

“And so I think we wait and see,” Paul said when asked about a 2024 presidential bid. “But it’s not something that I’m actively thinking, oh, this is my next step. I’m not really thinking toward that. It would have to be some extraordinary set of events to come together probably for me to consider it.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Tom Cotton and Dan Crenshaw are making trips to NH in the near future.

Cotton:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sen-tom-cotton-plans-to-return-to-nh-in-mid-july-for-at-least-two-events/36634676#

The Arkansas conservative is scheduled to headline a breakfast fundraising event for the Rockingham County Republicans on July 17 at the Atkinson Country Club, according to an invitation to the event obtained by New Hampshire Primary Source.

Separately, sources confirmed that Cotton also plans to attend, as the featured guest, the Hillsborough County Republicans’ annual Machine Gun Shoot fundraiser on the same day at the Londonderry Fish and Game Club in Litchfield. Other stops may be added.

And then I guess Crenshaw made a “virtual” appearance w/ a group of NH conservatives last week:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-crenshaw-to-speak-remotely-to-nh-center-right-coalition-on-wednesday/36792113

And now he'll go to NH in person next week:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-us-rep-dan-crenshaw-to-headline-major-republican-fundraiser-in-july/36721620

New Hampshire Primary Source has learned that Crenshaw, who represents the 2nd Congressional District of Texas, will be featured speaker at a dinner hosted by the New Hampshire Republican Party and the Grafton County Republican Committee on July 8 at the Grappone Center in Concord.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

[tosk]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

pain

[brucejoel99]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0-HOCbRMDQ

pain

I'll believe it when he's formally filed with the FEC & delivered a legitimate announcement speech & not a moment sooner.

[brucejoel99]

Ron DeSantis realizing that he'll never be President solely because of this photo (c. 2021, colorized):




And as if to confirm the inherent absurdity thereof:

https://twitter.com/rawstory/status/1410630921162735621

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ron DeSantis realizing that he'll never be President solely because of this photo (c. 2021, colorized):




And as if to confirm the inherent absurdity thereof:

https://twitter.com/rawstory/status/1410630921162735621

Please let this be DeSantis' Christie literally embracing Obama moment!

[Mr. Morden]

In this interview posted on Youtube, Cotton is asked about 2024, and dodges with “It’s too soon to speculate about an election that is 3 years away.”

[Ferguson97]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

Well... I guess he's running.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz says he’s considering another run for president.  Also says that his 2016 presidential run was “the most fun I’ve ever had in my life”:

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/tedcruz-2024-president-whitehouse/2021/07/01/id/1027201/

Appearing Thursday on "The Chris Salcedo Show," Cruz told guest host Tom Basile he was "just considering it, just thinking about it," when asked about his 2024 plans.
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But Cruz said his 2016 bid for the GOP presidential nomination, in which he was the last candidate standing against Trump, was "the most fun I've ever had in my life."

"We came incredibly close," he said. "Had an incredible grassroots army of 326,000 volunteers nationwide. And so whether it is in the Senate, or whether it is in a presidential campaign, I am committed to fighting to defend free enterprise, to defend freedom and defend the Constitution and Bill of Rights."