The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!

Considering how often presidential candidates launch bids after multiple flat-out denials, I don't think this is an especially poor inference.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

A Demsoc running in 3 consecutive races still wouldn't match Marxist Eugene Debs' fourth presidential run from inside prison.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

Biden assured Obama he would not run if they won in 2008. I suspect she was just talking up an asset; the "Warren Democrats" schtick has convinced me she's probably still entertaining a 2024 or even a 2028 bid.

I heard this as well, though I'm not sure what the point was? I'd actually like my vice president to run after two terms to continue the work. Joe Biden obviously backed out in 2016 for other reasons, but if he ran instead of Hillary, he would have beaten Trump in all likelyhood.

Politico just put out a good article on this, actually:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Basically, it had nothing to do with Beau passing away & everything to do with the fact that Obama just liked that Hillary would govern similarly to him in terms of that 'technocratic' style & focus, whereas Biden is more interpersonal, so Obamaworld (including Obama himself) basically wrote Biden off.

Clowns who want their candidate to talk to the beltway and not their constituents. Let this primary and the foundering of many sympathetic candidates’ bids be the end of that nonsense.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

“ Senior Trump campaign aide confirms that rising GOP stars Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem will all be featured RNC speakers next week.
Overall Convention Theme next week: Honoring the Great American Story.  @CBSNews”-Fin Gomez via Twitter

I definitely think Joni Ernst doesn’t get enough talk about a potential presidential bid, obviously she won’t show signs till after her re-election but I feel that she is overlooked

Bold of you to assume that she'll be re-elected.

I would have thought the campaign currently increasing the jeopardy she is in suggests Ernst 2024 wouldn't go very well.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Biden wins I predict 2 of the Dems to challenge harris in the primary will be Nina Turner and Tulsi Gabbard

Harris would win with 90+% of the vote.

Obviously. These would probably be exercises in grift from the outset.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bernie threatens to challenge Biden or Harris in 2024 primary if agenda is not passed

https://www.mediaite.com/news/watch-bernie-sanders-doesnt-rule-out-2024-primary-challenge-to-joe-biden-or-kamala-harris/

They asked him if he would support a challenge and he answered thusly:

And to answer your question, am I prepared to support primary challenges all across this country, to those members of Congress, Democrats who are not prepared to move toward a progressive agenda? You’re damn right I am,” Sanders added.

This is not the same thing as saying he'd support a challenge to Biden or Harris, let alone run himself.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyone got a feeling that if Trump loses, we'll see a few GOP campaigns announcements even before New Year's Day?

Especially if Biden wins, it's going to be a ripe season for making your name as the person who can move the party past Trumpism.

Possibly, but I don't think anyone with a real chance will want to do it until Trump has well and truly conceded the election for fear of being cast as someone who allowed the Biden administration to happen.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

I meant downballot primaries in '22 and '24. Conversely, the establishment wing would be more favoured in the presidential primary because Biden would either run again and probably face no serious competition or Kamala Harris would clear the field early with the institutional support typically afforded to a sitting Vice President.

In terms of who (among progressives) would run in a genuinely competitive '24 presidential primary, I'd guess Warren will try to go for it again, although I don't think it'll go well for her. Others to watch are Jeff Merkley and Tammy Baldwin; Sherrod Brown might try, but a presidential run could damage his chances if he ended up running for Senate again so I think he'd only do it if he was already convinced he'd lose his Senate seat anyway.

AOC might run after a second Trump term, but I think it's slightly less likely under a Biden presidency. I also don't think that bid would go particularly well but there's always a lot of uncertainty this far out.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

I meant downballot primaries in '22 and '24. Conversely, the establishment wing would be more favoured in the presidential primary because Biden would either run again and probably face no serious competition or Kamala Harris would clear the field early with the institutional support typically afforded to a sitting Vice President.

In terms of who (among progressives) would run in a genuinely competitive '24 presidential primary, I'd guess Warren will try to go for it again, although I don't think it'll go well for her. Others to watch are Jeff Merkley and Tammy Baldwin; Sherrod Brown might try, but a presidential run could damage his chances if he ended up running for Senate again so I think he'd only do it if he was already convinced he'd lose his Senate seat anyway.

AOC might run after a second Trump term, but I think it's slightly less likely under a Biden presidency. I also don't think that bid would go particularly well but there's always a lot of uncertainty this far out.

They're white. A progressive of color will have to win. White progressivism doesn't win

I don't think it's that simple given the way the primaries played out this year. The problem for some of the best POC progressives is that they are currently US House members and House members (for the most part) don't have much of a national platform. I mentioned AOC, but perhaps Mark Pocan could also pull it off without making it to the Senate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I’m not even convinced Trump would win the primary. What would he run on? He has no achievements and having lost he can’t exactly run on his electoral record. Even his supporters would want someone who could actually beat Biden/Harris not a proven loser.

There is no one who could get a greater reaction from "the libs." Return of the King for his supporters, Orange Dracula for his opponents.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

Not after the lockdowns, he isn’t. He’d do badly in a national primary unless Republicans somehow lost some Texas races in 2022.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hawley has apparently been planning to run for president in 2024 for decades now:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/25/josh-hawley-school-yearbook-2024-republican-run

Josh Hawley, the Republican from Missouri who faces calls for expulsion from the Senate over his support of Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn his election defeat, signed a friend’s eighth-grade yearbook “Josh Hawley, president 2024”.

The same yearbook named Hawley and the friend whose yearbook he signed among “future presidents”, the Kansas City Star reported.

What a freaking weirdo

Not compared to his contemporaries. Most people who make credible bids for president have at least imagined the idea much earlier in their lives, and the majority have probably made certain preparations. Biden's been running since before 1984 at the latest and looking at a younger example:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1119618985316818944

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cheney:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melissaholzberg/2021/04/26/liz-cheney-isnt-ruling-out-a-2024-presidential-bid/?sh=30374b406fa6

Might be a good way for her to avoid a career ending primary loss in 2022, forego re-election and go for a long shot Prez bid.

There is a cursed timeline in which a Bloomberg/Clinton-Cheney "unity" ticket gets serious backing "to defeat Trump", but Trump isn't president and there isn't even much room for a good grift here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This thread's recent talk is activating some 'nice' flashbacks to 2015 of Democratic hopes for a certain bumbling fool to end up being the Republican nominee so that Hillary could easily crush him. Did the totality of everything over these last 6 years really somehow manage to not force us to learn our lesson on that? Let's please not go through that again, shall we?

He's personally reprehensible, but on policy, Gaetz would probably be a better president than most of the Republican frontrunners.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

Robert Lighthizer and Mike Pompeo would probably beg to differ. They might all wind up smelling of sulphur, but being tossed out by Trump and having one's political career end is a pattern, not a law.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hints-2024-presidential-run-people-very-happy-1620893

Towards the end of the Newsmax interview, Kelly asked Trump about the 2024 election.

"As we say goodnight, sir, thoughts on 2024 and you. What are you thinking right now?" Kelly asked.

Trump replied: "So, look, I love this country. I hate what's happening to it. I hate it."

"And we're not gonna have a country anymore if it keeps going like this week," he said. "We're a laughing stock all over the world and I think a lot of people are going to be very happy."

Trump has used similar phrasing regarding a potential 2024 run in the past. In May, he appeared by phone on Candace Owen's show for the Daily Wire and said: "I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement."

In or out, he won't be wrong.