End of April - Who Wins the election?

[Sir Mohamed]

Polling shows a dead heat, fundamentals favor Biden. Overall, Tilt Biden at least.

[BlueSwan]

Polling shows a dead heat, fundamentals favor Biden. Overall, Tilt Biden at least.

Polling shows a dead heat NATIONALLY. Swing state polling continue to be very clearly in Trumps favour.

All the main issues that people care about except for abortion, favours Trump (immigration/border, inflation, wokeness) and Trump isn't even that terrible on abortion, so not necessarily the slam dunk winning issue that democrats think it is.

People who aren't already anti-Trump DO NOT CARE about his behavior or his criminal cases.

In 2020 when Trump was in office and Biden was running as a "generic D", Biden JUST squeeked out a win by appealing to a very broad anti-Trump coalition. It's gonna be a LOT harder to energize voters against Trump this time and Biden is far more unpopular than he was last time.

Conclusion: Trump is the favourite.

[EastwoodS]

With the Capitol gains threat and Tik Tok ban, Trump.

[Duke of York]

With the Capitol gains threat and Tik Tok ban, Trump.

if someone isn't going to vote or vote Trump over Tik Tok their priorities are screwed up. anyway I still think the election is Lean Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Polling shows a dead heat, fundamentals favor Biden. Overall, Tilt Biden at least.

Polling shows a dead heat NATIONALLY. Swing state polling continue to be very clearly in Trumps favour.

All the main issues that people care about except for abortion, favours Trump (immigration/border, inflation, wokeness) and Trump isn't even that terrible on abortion, so not necessarily the slam dunk winning issue that democrats think it is.

People who aren't already anti-Trump DO NOT CARE about his behavior or his criminal cases.

In 2020 when Trump was in office and Biden was running as a "generic D", Biden JUST squeeked out a win by appealing to a very broad anti-Trump coalition. It's gonna be a LOT harder to energize voters against Trump this time and Biden is far more unpopular than he was last time.

Conclusion: Trump is the favourite.

Swing state polling does not exclusively favor Trump, even though latter polls are more discussed here and by the media.

"People who are already anti-Trump" are a majority of this country, Trump has never polled in favorable territory. While some may not be thrilled about Biden or the possibility of a rematch, in the end a lot of them will realize he's the only option to prevent Trump from winning. Meanwhile, Trump hasn't done much to expand his coalition.

It's also not true all discussed issues besides abortion favor Biden. Not even border security, as the GOP sunk a bipartisan bill to secure the border. It's easy for Biden to use this against his opponent.

And lastly, polling is just a snapshot in time, even the high quality polls. We're 6 months away from the election and incumbents typically surge/do better towards the end. No recent prez has been defeated for reelection with the economic data of the moment.

Does Biden have it in the bag? Of course not. But stop dooming.

[Xing]

I've been increasingly disconnected from politics since I've become more and more resigned to the idea that Trump is going to win, if narrowly. I'm just done with getting invested in something that will disappoint me time and time again.

if someone isn't going to vote or vote Trump over Tik Tok their priorities are screwed up. anyway I still think the election is Lean Trump.

Welcome to America!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've been increasingly disconnected from politics since I've become more and more resigned to the idea that Trump is going to win, if narrowly. I'm just done with getting invested in something that will disappoint me time and time again.

if someone isn't going to vote or vote Trump over Tik Tok their priorities are screwed up. anyway I still think the election is Lean Trump.

Welcome to America!

Your analysis is wrong Trump isn't going to win the Latest poll has Biden ahead, and it's a 270 map anyways

[Bush did 311]

I think the far left has been very effectively neutralized from participating in electoralism in the parts of the internet where it exists, and the accelerationist element has gotten stronger each election after 2008.

Biden wins more white moderates than Obama or Hillary so he CAN win with less of the left. I'd put 2/3rds odds on Trump though. Biden has a puncher's chance at best for now.

[Eraserhead]

Went from leaning slightly towards Trump to Biden and now back to Trump again. It may swing back to Biden in a week or two, it's really on a knife's edge.

[Eraserhead]

Strong Lean Trump.

North Carolina is in the bag, Georgia is in the bag, and Michigan is also seemingly in the bag. All that's left is to pick off one of the swing states and that's about it.

I do think Biden has a real problem in Michigan but you can't seriously think it is "in the bag" for Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Strong Lean Trump.

North Carolina is in the bag, Georgia is in the bag, and Michigan is also seemingly in the bag. All that's left is to pick off one of the swing states and that's about it.

I do think Biden has a real problem in Michigan but you can't seriously think it is "in the bag" for Trump.

I think his problem in Michigan is overstated due to the narrative of “Arabs abandoning Biden” that ignore that this is a smaller and less electorally impactful group than people think.