The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

I’ve held off on this so far, but with the 2024 presidential primary season upon us, it’s time to make this thread.

This thread is for news about the potential 2024 presidential candidates making news towards running (or not), including their public statements on the matter, visits to early primary states, etc.  It is *not* intended for "Hey, what about X?  Maybe he'll run." type posts, that aren't grounded in any actual news.

I’ve made some other scattered threads in past months about possible 2024 news that I’ll re-post at some point here, but for now let me start off with this story on Pence, Cruz, and others visiting NH:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/07/mike-pence-president-2024-067313

Current and former Republican party officials, and Pence's own camp, said the visit was aimed solely at winning a state Trump lost by 3,000 votes. But there’s more going on behind the scenes, with Pence and others, that point to four years from now.

Gov. John Kasich is also in the state Thursday — with much less fanfare — for a book signing at the University of New Hampshire. Sen. Ted Cruz was in New Hampshire last week to help raise money for former House speaker Bill O’Brien, who is now running for Senate. Cruz will be back next week to speak to conservative activists at a prominent free-market think tank.
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Cruz may have a leg up given his long-standing relationships with libertarian-minded Republicans. His decision to headline a fundraiser for the Josiah Bartlett Center, a free-market think tank, is a clear sign he's keeping up his rapport with some of the state’s leading conservatives.

“I think he’s clearly stoking the embers,” Mowers said. “Guys like Cruz haven’t kept it a secret he may want to run for office again. I’m sure he’s keeping track of every business card he gets on those trips.”
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Activists said others they're watching for 2024 clues are Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska; Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas; Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky; former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley; and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Then there’s this on Nikki Haley:

https://nypost.com/2019/11/13/nikki-haley-keeps-door-open-for-2024-presidential-run/

Haley, who discussed her book “With All Due Respect” at the 92nd Street Y Tuesday night,  sought to deflect the question when asked by Fox News’ Dana Perino about a 2024 candidacy.

“A year is a lifetime in politics,” Haley said. “It would be a waste of time to think about 2024 at this point.”

But Haley then added, “Instead I want to do everything I do really well now and just see if doors open.”

[Mr. Morden]

Other 2024 news from earlier this year that I’ll repost here….

In this thread:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315708.0
I noted that Pompeo visited Iowa earlier this year.  And also that he’s said that he’s thought about running for president at some point:

More Pompeo 2024 watch: He might run for US Senate in Kansas as a stepping stone to a presidential run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/25/mike-pompeo-senate-kansas-trump-1378323

For Pompeo, a Senate run could be a prelude to a presidential run in 2024. At the least, a spot in the Senate would keep him politically relevant regardless of Trump’s fate in 2020. Still, some senators said privately that the gravitas of the secretary of State post would position him better for a White House run than if he were one of the most junior senators in the building.

Pompeo himself has spoken privately about the prospect of a presidential run. He and his friend Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) attended a private dinner at the American Enterprise Institute’s annual retreat in Sea Island, Ga., this spring.

Asked whether he’s considered running for president, Pompeo responded, “I have,” and then pointed at Cotton and joked: “And I might be running against that guy,” according to one attendee.

Also earlier this year, Cruz says he hopes to run again:

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2019/0912/Ted-Cruz-eyes-the-White-House-I-hope-to-run-again

“Look, I hope to run again,” said Senator Cruz, who was the runner-up last time to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. “We came very, very close in 2016. And it’s the most fun I’ve ever had in my life.”

And Will Hurd has done several early primary state visits:

TM: You’ve been traveling and scheduling trips to New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. Those are early presidential primary states. Are you laying the groundwork for a 2024 presidential run? What you’ve said about trying to help out candidates nationwide feels like what someone exploring a presidential run would not.

WH: I am not going to run in 2020. My goal is to help other folks, other candidates in the 2020 election.

TM: Yeah, but 2024, you might run for some office?

WH: Look, I’m about to turn 42 years old, I’m sure this is probably not the last time I run for elected office. Who knows? I’m looking forward to helping great people, like I said, like Wesley Hunt, and staying involved in technology and national security. If opportunities arise, we’ll evaluate them as they come.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton says he "intends" to serve out his next 6 year term if reelected in 2020, but doesn't seem to make any ironclad promises:

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2019/aug/08/cotton-says-his-focus-is-on-2020-servin/

"I'm very grateful that the people of Arkansas sent me there for the past four years, and that's why I'm asking for another six years," Cotton said. "I expect I will serve six more years for the people of Arkansas."

Asked about a presidential run in five years, Cotton again pointed to next year's Senate campaign.

"I'm focused on the Senate campaign of 2020," he said. "These days, a week is a lifetime in politics, much less six years."

[Mr. Morden]

The reasons for silence amongst Dems are obvious, as either they'll have an incumbent President or they'll be outright saying they won't win if they try to make any statements on running before the election is decided. The only way there's major chatter is if Dems are heading towards a likely loss (you may remember discussion about the 2020 Republican primary back in 2016, for example).

We'll probably get some hints at the convention because what normally happens is that those with future presidential ambition schedule meetings with the early primary state delegations.  This can happen even if the party's current year candidate is seen as likely to win.  E.g., Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and Sanders all met with early primary state delegations at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

[Mr. Morden]

Nikki Haley.

What about her?

[Mr. Morden]

Possible 2024 presidential candidate Mike Pompeo possibly running for US Senate in Kansas, and among the names being floated to replace him as Sos are fellow likely 2024 presidential candidates Cotton and Rubio:

https://twitter.com/warren_bass/status/1210297787516149774

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055

[Mr. Morden]

Yang says he might run for president again if he's not the nominee this time:

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1226325723184533505

[Mr. Morden]

Tom Cotton headed to New Hampshire in May:

https://granitegrok.com/blog/2020/02/senator-tom-cotton-to-headline-hillsborough-gop-lincoln-reagan

Meanwhile, this Politico story notes that the following 2024 potentials spoke at CPAC this weekend:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/2024-republicans-trump-cpac-117991

Liz Cheney
Cruz
Haley
Hawley
Pence
Pompeo

They also name check Trump Jr., though note that people in his orbit say he has no interest in running:

Donald Trump Jr. is also on the conference speaker list, and some attendees were spotted carrying around his book. While many have floated the president's son as a prospective 2024 candidate, people close to him insist he has no interest.

Here’s the full CPAC schedule:

https://links.conservative.org/cpac/agenda/cpac-2020-agenda-9dmslp.pdf

Browsing through that schedule, I’d also note another 2024 potential candidate, which is Joni Ernst, given that she sent some signals of national interest back in 2016, such as, e.g., meeting with the New Hampshire delegation at the RNC that year, which seemed to signal that she was considering a 2020 presidential bid in the event that Clinton had beaten Trump that year.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump Jr. says “I have no intention of running in 2024.”:

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-jr-hbo-2024-presidential-election-580d8450-97f3-4d94-a690-9d9ae555579a.html

   •   "Listen, I have no intention of running in 2024. I mean, I've liked the game."
   •   "My only goal and my myopic focus is making sure my father gets re-elected because I want to keep the winning continuing."
   •   "I want to keep that going, so that’s my only focus."

[Mr. Morden]

The Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual conference has been posponed due to coronavirus:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-republican-jewish-coalition-postpones-annual-confab-poised-to-host-donald-trump-1.8665423

However, before the cancellation, they had lined up several speakers with possible presidential ambitions:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/pompeo-nikki-haley-and-greg-abbott-to-appear-at-republican-jewish-coalition-confab-signaling-2024-ambitions

E.g., Abbot, Ernst, Haley, and Pompeo.  The conference had been set to take place in the early caucus state of Nevada.

In other news, Vanity Fair has a story about Karen Pence updating her fashion sense to be more First Lady-esque:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/02/inside-remaking-of-karen-pence-mike-pence-2024

As I’ve reported, the Pences have been focused on the White House since November 2008, the moment after then senator Barack Obama’s election, when Mike truly caught fire on the right. Their original plan in joining the Trump ticket, sources told me for my book, was to run for the Republican nomination in 2020 when Trump lost in 2016. That, of course, didn’t happen, so the Pences’ window was pushed to 2024. Since the 2016 election, Mike has campaigned and fundraised extensively for Trump, which has the dual benefit of giving him exposure and developing stronger ties with Republican mega-donors who will decide who runs in the subsequent election.

Ergo the timing for the reinvention of Karen, said one longtime Indiana Republican, is ideal. If they waited until the 2024 campaign to reinvent her image, too many people would take notice. But now, with the Democratic primary and the Trump media circus running full tilt, is the perfect time for a soft launch. The Indiana Republican noted the Pences have time and space to make mistakes before the heat of the spotlight melts them. “They’re playing long ball.”

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott is buying attack ad TV space in Iowa to fight Joe Biden, surely a sign that he's looking toward the future politically.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/florida-senator-iowa-bomb-biden-108416

Scott is also running a Spanish language ad in Florida attacking Sanders over “past praise of Cuba’s Fidel Castro, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega”:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/10/scott-slams-sanders-in-spanish-language-ad-1266324

The ad is running in Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Fort Myers. The Scott campaign said the ad buy would be in the mid five figures. It lands as thousands of Floridians already are casting ballots — nearly 655,000 Democrats have already voted, according to the state Division of Elections.

Scott’s interference in the Democratic primary is widely seen in Republican circles as a warm-up act for either his reelection or a 2024 bid for president, where he could face fellow Floridians Gov. Ron DeSantis or Sen. Marco Rubio.

Meanwhile, Tom Cotton is running an ad in Ohio(!):

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/14/cotton-scott-trump-128972

The content was standard, pro-Trump, anti-Democrat fare. What was very atypical was that it aired hundreds of miles from his home state, in Ohio.
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Aside from getting Trump's back, Cotton and Scott are using the spots to introduce themselves to voters. Both appear prominently: While Scott is face-to-camera, Cotton’s features a side-by-side shot of him with the president. Cotton, an Iraq War veteran, is seen wearing combat uniform with a machine gun strapped to his chest.

In separate interviews, neither Scott nor Cotton explicitly denied interest in running for president in four years. They deflected questions about whether their efforts could help position them for presidential runs down the line, saying they were just interested in bolstering Trump.

Also speaking of Scott, he campaigned for Trump in New Hampshire last month:

https://thecapitolist.com/rick-scott-appears-at-trump-rally-amid-2024-presidential-bid-speculation/

[Mr. Morden]

Haley resigns from the board of Boeing over their Coronavirus bailout bid:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/818909351/nikki-haley-resigns-from-boeings-board-over-coronavirus-bailout-bid

According to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, "Ambassador Haley informed the Company that, as a matter of philosophical principle, she does not believe that the Company should seek support from the Federal Government, and therefore decided to resign from the Board."

In her letter of resignation, Haley wrote, "As we encounter the Covid-19 crisis, Boeing, along with many other companies, face another major set of challenges. I want to be part of helping the company as it pushes through it. However, the board and executive team are going in a direction I cannot support.

"While I know cash is tight, that is equally true for numerous other industries and for millions of small businesses. I cannot support a move to lean on the federal government for a stimulus or bailout that prioritizes our company over others and relies on taxpayers to guarantee our financial position. I have long held strong convictions that this is not the role of government."

Widely viewed as a future potential GOP presidential candidate, Haley's decision could be a way to insulate herself from future charges that she supported a taxpayer-funded bailout of a private company.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like I missed this at the time, but Chris Christie had intended to do a New Hampshire trip two weeks ago to fundraise for Republicans there, but the event was cancelled due to coronavirus:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-chris-christie-to-return-to-nh-for-sununu-mowers-fundraisers/31232510
https://newjerseyglobe.com/national/christie-cancels-new-hampshire-trip/

The first story notes that Christie has also held a fundraiser for NH-1 candidate Matt Mowers in New Jersey.

Christie also made a trip to NH last year as part of his book tour:

https://patch.com/new-hampshire/concord-nh/christie-keynote-lincoln-reagan-dinner-concord

While he was there, he did an interview in which he was asked about 2024.  (You can see an edited version here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9U-US5U02w&feature=youtu.be Skip ahead to the ~4:40 mark.) He gave a noncommittal answer, but noted that he’s too young to retire from politics, and all of his kids will be out of college by then, so he wouldn’t preclude making more trips to New Hampshire around that time (if you get his drift).

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, back in February, at CPAC, Scott Walker said another presidential run for him was possible:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-gop-gov-scott-walker-floats-potential-2024-2028-presidential-bid-at-cpac

When asked whether he would run for president again, he said: “Never say never—I don’t know about 2024, but 2028—yeah, at some point. I’ve got plenty of time.”

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like yet another 2016 candidate gave a non-committal answer on 2024 earlier this year.  This is Rand Paul in February (sounding more skeptical than some of the others, but not ruling it out either):

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/exclusive-rand-paul-talks-mixed-bag-trump-foreign-policy-and-mulls-2024-presidential-bid

I eventually hinted at whether Paul maintains presidential ambitions or is eyeing 2024 and didn’t get the denial I was expecting.

“I don't say absolutely no because I think it depends on the circumstances,” the senator said. “[We need to see] what goes on between now and then ... it would take something for me to believe that the libertarian part of the Republican Party is bigger. The libertarian movement is a mixture of people, and they're not all in the Republican primary. It may be a small number of the Republican primary, but it may include more independents and maybe some Democrats.”

[Mr. Morden]

Another move from February that I’m just catching up on: Nikki Haley hired the executive director of Heritage Action to run her conservative policy group:

link

With his conservative resume and organizing ability, Chapman is seen as a key hire for Haley, especially if she seeks the Republican nomination in a post-Trump world.

“Tim’s one of the most talented people in the conservative movement,” Mike Needham told RealClearPolitics. The chief of staff for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Heritage Action director added that Haley had “made a great choice” and said that “it will be exciting to watch the work they do together to advance our nation’s values.”

Haley left her post at the end of 2018, one of only a few administration alumni who walked away from the White House with an intact relationship with the president. So popular was Haley in certain Trump circles, she eventually had to quash rumors that she might replace Vice President Pence on the 2020 ticket. Speculation about her White House ambitions now abounds. By bringing in Chapman, with his sterling conservative resume, the ex-ambassador may be shoring up her right flank in advance of a presidential bid.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess back in March, Andrew Cuomo (in an interview with his brother Chris) ruled out ever thinking about running for president in the future?  Though I'm not sure if he was interpreting this as just whether he'd run this cycle (which itself doesn't make much sense unless you expect Biden to be removed from the ticket):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/andrew-cuomo-2024-2028-president/index.html

C. CUOMO: Let me ask you something. With all of this adulation that you're getting for doing your job, are you thinking about running for President? Tell the audience.
A. CUOMO: No. No.
C. CUOMO: No, you won't answer?
A. CUOMO: No. I answered. The answer is "No." I answered the question.
C. CUOMO: No, you're not thinking about it?
A. CUOMO: Sometimes, it's one word. I said "No." No.
C. CUOMO: Have you thought about it?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: Are you open to thinking about it?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: Might you think about it at some point?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: How can you know what you might think about at some point right now?
A. CUOMO: Because I know what I might think about, and what I won't think about.

Of course, answering no to "have you ever thought about it?" is surely a lie, which anyone who followed the 2016 and 2020 versions of the "Tea Leaves" threads would know.  There's been tons of reporting over the past decade to indicate that Cuomo has thought about running for president.  It's just that he ended up opting not to run in the end (so far).

[Mr. Morden]

Pence is going to Iowa tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1258407687664078848

And Pompeo will be there in July:

https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/05/05/secretary-of-state-pompeo-to-headline-iowa-event-in-july/

Pompeo is scheduled to speak at The Family Leader’s annual mid-year “Leadership Summit” on July 17th in West Des Moines. Pompeo, an Army veteran, has been President Trump’s secretary of state for the past two years. He was the president’s CIA director before that.

Last year, Pompeo said he is open to running for president after Trump leaves office. Pompeo’s speech in July will be his second major address in Iowa. He spoke in March of 2019 at the World Food Prize Headquarters in Des Moines, telling farmers at that time he was seeing “real progress” in trade talks with China.

[Mr. Morden]

Stacey Abrams spoke at the (virtual) New Hampshire Democratic Convention earlier today:

https://www.wmur.com/article/stacey-abrams-tells-nh-democrats-granite-state-can-lead-fight-against-voter-suppression/32424227#

[Mr. Morden]

Not really sure where Pompeo’s reluctance to run for Senate factors into his potential run for president in 2024.  Again, Pompeo has admitted that he’s thought about running for president, and has made a few trips to Iowa, with another one planned in July.  But he’s declined to run for US Senate in Kansas, despite it previously being floated that he might aim to run there as a launching pad for president in 2024.  WaPo has a new story about Trump wanting him to run for Senate and Pompeo refusing.  McConnell also seems to be annoyed with him for not running:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-encourages-pompeo-to-run-for-senate-but-secretary-of-state-rebuffs-him/2020/05/14/16e23fc4-9563-11ea-8107-acde2f7a8d6e_story.html

President Trump recently encouraged Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to reconsider running for the U.S. Senate in Kansas but Pompeo rebuffed the request, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
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As the calendar closes in on Kansas’s June 1 primary-filing deadline, a person close to Pompeo said that the secretary is no longer considering running for the seat after weighing it for months last year. Officials say Pompeo, who served as a congressman from the Wichita area for six years before joining the Trump administration in 2017, wants to remain Secretary of State out of a concern that he has unfinished business to complete.
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McConnell has repeatedly tried to convince Pompeo to run for the seat, seeing him as the ideal candidate, according to people close to the majority leader. Trump was initially skeptical of the bid, seeing Pompeo as one of his most valuable and trustworthy member of his Cabinet. Some people close to McConnell were frustrated when Pompeo decided against the bid in January.

[Mr. Morden]

Yang on 2024:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-yang-says-hes-open-to-challenging-biden-in-2024-if-former-vp-wins-in-2020

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang announced that he planned to run for political office again and that he could challenge former Vice President Joe Biden in 2024 if he wins in 2020.

"So one thing I will say to you that, like if the Democrats were to win this year, that would not preclude me from running in 2024, if I thought that was a better approach to solve the problems that I care so deeply about that are wrecking our lives and communities in many, many cases," Yang said during a Friday interview on the Zach and Matt Show on YouTube. "So I’m operating as if I’m going to run for office again, possibly president. And I’m driven not by conventional political dynamics."

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1259915242399764480

[Mr. Morden]

Former Pence chief of staff Nick Ayers may be defecting to the Haley camp for 2024:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/trump-eyes-campaign-shake-up

In 2018, Kushner recruited Ayers to replace John Kelly as Trump’s chief of staff. Ayers turned down the offer, and sources said he has no interest in joining the Trump campaign. One person close to Ayers told me he’s aligning himself with Nikki Haley to lead her potential 2024 campaign. “He views Haley as the right train to be on,” the source said.

[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Examiner on coronavirus and Pence 2024, including a non-denial from his current chief of staff:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/coronavirus-spotlight-shines-a-path-for-mike-pence-toward-2024

“Pence is a natural with the governors and he, more than anyone else in the administration, has been traveling nonstop collecting chits with every GOP governor, mayor, and state leader. Hugely helpful in the inevitable race for key endorsements in 2024,” said a figure close to the Pence team.

“If anyone needs anything from the White House, if you're an elected official, your first call is to Pence.”
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For his part, the vice president has said politics are not a factor in his travel itinerary. Marc Short, his chief of staff, told the Washington Examiner that 2024 remained a long way off.