The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

He is totally going to take credit for the GOP taking back the House, isn't he? He might as well literally push McCarthy out of the way of his podium when the networks call it.

[S019]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

I expect him to tease it, but ultimately not run, he seems to love having the spotlight, but doesn't actually like doing much, becoming a GOP primary kingmaker would allow him to do just that.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

I expect him to tease it, but ultimately not run, he seems to love having the spotlight, but doesn't actually like doing much, becoming a GOP primary kingmaker would allow him to do just that.

I tend to agree, but Trump also likes grift.  If he thinks being the nominee would be a more profitable swindle, he might go for it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

I expect him to tease it, but ultimately not run, he seems to love having the spotlight, but doesn't actually like doing much, becoming a GOP primary kingmaker would allow him to do just that.

He'll be taken away of his kingmaker's status as soon as GOP gets a new nominee. How does he suppose to handle it? He's running (I hope).

[NYSforKennedy2024]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

[President Johnson]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

[AltWorlder]

I expect him to tease it, but ultimately not run, he seems to love having the spotlight, but doesn't actually like doing much, becoming a GOP primary kingmaker would allow him to do just that.

The funny thing is, he's taking a long roundabout way to get to where he was roughly at a decade ago, when he was an up and rising GOP operative of sorts, hosting different events and trolling Obama about his birth certificate.

He'll be taken away of his kingmaker's status as soon as GOP gets a new nominee. How does he suppose to handle it? He's running (I hope).

Until there's a new movement or phenomenon figure, that new nominee will still be beholden to his blessing and influence.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

[Heebie Jeebie]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

Not practically, but politically. Americans haven't cared about the war in Afghanistan probably since Bin Laden was killed. So it really would have done little harm to not rock the boat on the situation, even if it was still an absolute waste.

We, as a nation, are in such a dire moment in our history where every political decision that attracts the attention of the media cycle can be consequential to our future being anywhere close to sustainable as a republic. And today's terrorist attack, on top of an already messy situation, just becomes another threat that the increasingly autocratic Republican Party can utilize for their nefarious ends of gaining and maintaining power at all costs.

[Heebie Jeebie]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

Not practically, but politically. Americans haven't cared about the war in Afghanistan probably since Bin Laden was killed. So it really would have done little harm to not rock the boat on the situation, even if it was still an absolute waste.

We, as a nation, are in such a dire moment in our history where every political decision that attracts the attention of the media cycle can be consequential to our future being anywhere close to sustainable as a republic. And today's terrorist attack, on top of an already messy situation, just becomes another threat that the increasingly autocratic Republican Party can utilize for their nefarious ends of gaining and maintaining power at all costs.

I guess what I'm suggesting is that there was no choice but to rock the boat in some way.  Leaving gave us what we've been watching unfold.  It's a mess, but there's a clear end to it on the way.  But staying would require a giant surge of troops and a regular, elevated body count for...what?  Several more months?  Years?  Decades?  Again, the relative stability of the last several months was extremely fragile, only the result of Taliban restraint as they waited for us to withdraw.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1430976084179312642

[NewYorkExpress]

Mike Pompeo under attack from John Bolton for his role in brokering a deal with the Taliban.

While the chaotic drawdown of the war in Afghanistan has taken a toll on President Joe Biden's standing back home, it's also complicated political matters for one prominent Republican with eyes seemingly on the White House.

Few GOP officials have been more intimately involved with U.S.-Afghan relations than Mike Pompeo, who as Secretary of State helped lead negotiations with the Taliban to lead to an end of the 20-year-old war.


With that ending now mired in chaos, Pompeo has rushed to the airwaves to defend his work and differentiate it from the job that the Biden team is doing. Republican strategists say it's no coincidence. Pompeo, they posit, recognizes that his own electoral fate could be directly impacted by how the public perceives the current situation in Kabul.


“Trying to extricate yourself from this withdrawal is I think difficult if not impossible to do, especially to rewrite history about what actually happened,” said former Trump national security adviser John Bolton, a prominent critic of his former boss’ Afghanistan policy. “I think that’s a prescription for Democratic attack ads that would be fatal to someone’s credibility.”

Pompeo has been coy about his own ambitions for 2024, but the former congressman from Kansas, CIA Director, and Secretary of State has been popping up at high profile fundraisers for midterm candidates and rubbing elbows with influential conservatives in critical early-voting states like Iowa. His appeal to voters is due, in part, to the feet he has had in its two most prominent, recent movements: the Tea Party and Trumpism.

[Heebie Jeebie]

haha, I'm sure Christie and Haley are glad they degraded themselves to stay in Trump's graces.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is doing several events in Iowa both today and tomorrow:

https://iowatorch.com/2021/08/24/marco-rubio-headline-two-republican-events-in-iowa/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

In every Trump speech/statement so far, he's explicitly said that he supports withdrawal, but thinks Biden handled it poorly.
Regular GOP politicians are a different story, but Trump isn't going pro-war.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

In every Trump speech/statement so far, he's explicitly said that he supports withdrawal, but thinks Biden handled it poorly.
Regular GOP politicians are a different story, but Trump isn't going pro-war.

If you expect consistency out of Trump, then I've got some Ivermectin to sell you.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump planning a trip to Iowa:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/30/trump-to-head-to-iowa-with-an-eye-on-2024-507656

Former President Donald Trump plans to hold a rally in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa as he continues to tease a third run for the White House.

Details for Trump’s trip are still being worked out, but it comes on the heels of visits to the state by other high profile Republicans also eyeing a run for president. This summer, a steady parade of top GOPers have held fundraisers and political events in Iowa in an effort to support the party but also rub elbows with GOP leadership who will prove instrumental in the early presidential caucus state.

[NewYorkExpress]

Wealthy GOP donors starting to surround Ron DeSantis.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has cemented himself as the face of GOP opposition to anti-Covid-19 mandates — a position that is winning over not only rank-and-file voters ahead of the 2024 presidential primaries but also some of the Republican Party's wealthiest donors.

How the race shapes up will first and foremost be determined by whether former President Donald Trump decides to run. But many donors are investing early in potential candidates like DeSantis, whom polling shows to be the leading Trump alternative in the prospective presidential field.

Campaign finance records covering the first seven months of this year showed that prominent contributors, including many beyond Florida, are investing in his 2022 re-election campaign — which could further solidify his prospects.

Writing a check now is a low-risk way to get into DeSantis' circle early, an investment if he runs for president and wins the nomination. Unlike the potential presidential candidates who serve in Congress and can accept only relatively small donations, DeSantis is allowed to get unlimited checks from donors under Florida law.

Ken Griffin, the GOP megadonor and billionaire founder of the hedge fund Citadel, donated $5 million to DeSantis' campaign in April — the largest donation he has received this year. DeSantis also raked in $500,000 in May from WeatherTech founder David MacNeil, $250,000 in March from Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus and $250,000 in February from former Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner, who moved to Florida after he lost re-election. New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, an ambassador in the Trump administration, also donated.

Other Trump administration officials got in on the action, too: Former ambassadors Jamie McCourt and Kelly Craft and ex-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross donated $10,000 to $50,000.

Nick Iarossi, a Tallahassee lobbyist and DeSantis fundraiser, said DeSantis is also raising plenty of small-dollar donations from across the country.

.....


Among DeSantis' other top donors are St. Louis Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr., Los Angeles Chargers owner Dean Spanos, Hall of Fame baseball pitcher Nolan Ryan, UFC President Dana White, Jimmy John's founder Jimmy John Liautaud, Jack Link's CEO Troy Link and disgraced Papa John's founder John Schnatter. Each has donated $5,000 to $100,000 this year.

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan, Pence, Pompeo, Haley, Cotton, and Tim Scott will all be speaking at the Reagan Library as part of a speaking series called “Time for Choosing”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-pence-ryan-haley-scott-cotton-reagan-library-speeches-gop-future

Looks like they're going to get Christie for this as well:

https://reagan40.secure.force.com/events/cnp_paas_evt__ExternalRegistrationPage?Site_Id=a2E1Q000003KFz7UAG

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio (while in Iowa) is asked if he’ll run for president again, and says he doesn’t know:

https://www.radioiowa.com/2021/08/31/on-2024-prospects-rubio-says-he-doesnt-know-what-the-future-holds/

“I imagine in 2024 I, like others, will have to view what the opportunities are and I’ve run for president before, so clearly it’s something that’s interested me, but it’s certainly not something that right now I’m either planning or not planning,” Rubio said during an interview with Radio Iowa. “I don’t know what my life, the world, the country or politics will look like in two years.”

Rubio said his focus right now is on winning reelection to his U.S. Senate seat in 2022.

Paul Ryan is also asked about running for president in ’24, and doesn’t rule it out, but says “I like being where I am right now”:

https://www.wisn.com/article/paul-ryan-says-former-president-donald-trump-lost-the-2020-election/37436025#

Wainscott asked whether Ryan would consider running for the White House in 2024.

"I like being where I am right now, a private citizen with a great family life, working on some big ideas at think tanks and teaching young minds at Notre Dame," Ryan said.

"You don't see yourself on a ballot again?" Wainscott asked.

"Not presently I don't. Who knows what the future holds down the road, but nothing in the near future, that's for sure," Ryan said.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1433608805397504004

[NewYorkExpress]

Pat Toomey says Trump should not be the Republican nominee in 2024.

Sen. Pat Toomey has urged his party not to nominate former President Donald Trump as its presidential candidate in 2024, calling his conduct in the aftermath of the 2020 election “completely unacceptable.”

The Pennsylvania Republican voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial over his role in stoking the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, fueled by the former president’s misinformation about the election being “stolen” due to widespread voter fraud.

Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday, Toomey, who is not seeking reelection in 2022, suggested his party consider other presidential nominees in 2024.

“I think that the future of our party is to be a party of ideas, and not to be a party about any one individual, and I think we will learn a lot from the next set of primaries,” he said.

“I think after what happened post-2020 election, I think the president’s behavior was completely unacceptable, so I don’t think he should be the nominee to lead the party in 2024.”

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1433608805397504004

"Any day now" is a vague enough statement to make this not very newsworthy.

[NewYorkExpress]

Vanity Fair article on the 2020 Republican field. The juicy part of the article is about DeSantis's relationship with Trump.

DeSantis’s biggest challenge, though, will be navigating his fraught relationship with Trump. “Trump ing hates DeSantis. He just resents his popularity,” a second Trump confidant told me. (“Ron is a good guy,” Trump said.) According to a source, advisers for Pompeo have been promoting DeSantis in hopes of stoking Trump’s jealousy. “Pompeo’s people are building up DeSantis as the leader of the Republican Party to piss Trump off,” the source said.

Part of Trump’s irritation with DeSantis is that Trump feels that DeSantis doesn’t give Trump enough credit for his rise. “Trump tells people, ‘I made Ron.’ Trump says that about a lot of people. But in this case, it’s actually true,” a prominent Republican said. (“He gives me good credit,” Trump told me.)

According to sources, then Congressman DeSantis cultivated Trump’s support during the 2018 gubernatorial election by hanging out at Trump’s Washington, D.C., hotel. “He asked me if I’d endorse him,” Trump recalled. For much of the primary, DeSantis trailed Florida agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam. But after Trump backed DeSantis in June, DeSantis zoomed 12 points ahead and went on to win by nearly 20 points. “The second I endorsed Ron, he blew through everybody,” Trump said.