The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[President Johnson]

Of course he's being a coward.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1403037776732360704

[brucejoel99]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

I don't understand this argument. How can it be a kiss of death for his career when Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and it would give him an opportunity to be a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on the planet? Trump is old and unhealthy... DeSantis or anyone else would be a fool to reject a VP offer.

Not who you were responding to, but the same way in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end: if you can't be 100% loyal to Trump & his wishes 100% of the time (which has proven itself to be something of an inherent impossibility, in that one's own potential legal liability will always tend to get in the way of being able to obey Trump's orders sooner-or-later), he'll see to it that you're finished in GOP politics. Just ask Sessions.

Of course, DeSantis might just see that as a risk worth taking anyway, since Trump would be 78 upon taking office again.

Again... Pence's career isn't "dead"... he consistently leads in polls for 2024 primary (when Trump is not included) and was the Vice President for four years. If he retires now, that's not a bad career to have.

Hence why I said "in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end" (my emphasis added in italics), given the very real possibility of him still ultimately flaming out with Trumpists in the primary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Of course he's being a coward.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1403037776732360704

I still think he would be among the worst candidates they could nominate in 2024, only outmatched maybe by Ted Cruz in terms of doing poorly. After all, if Mike Pence is tapioca pudding; Ted Cruz is that same pudding which has been left in the back of the fridge until a year past its expiration date and curdled into a lumpy, gag-inducing mess.

[Mr. Morden]

Earlier this week, Noem gave another denial of presidential ambition:

https://www.sdstandardnow.com/home/ignore-noems-denial-about-a-presidential-run-because-she-is-already-on-the-campaign-trail

“No, I do not,” she said when asked if she planned to run to become the nation’s first female president, just as she is our first female governor. “I think that would be a miserable job, don’t you guys think? I mean, honestly, it would be.”

Meanwhile, Pence just bought a house in Indiana:

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/09/trump-vp-mike-pence-buys-house-carmel-indiana-real-estate/7618512002/

[beesley]

If the tension has reduced between Trump and Pence, that means Pence has caved in somehow or tried to butter him up. How pathetic.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the tension has reduced between Trump and Pence, that means Pence has caved in somehow or tried to butter him up. How pathetic.

Was Mr. Pence ever NOT pathetic since signing a pact with the devil in 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Haley's visiting Israel this week:

https://themedialine.org/headlines/nikki-haley-presumed-2024-us-presidential-hopeful-visits-israel/

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump was convinced that he had to take Pence to get Evangelical support. He has doubtless deeply regretted that decision ever since, and certainly doesn't think he "needs" to win over Evangelicals or establishment Republicans.  I'm also skeptical that he will choose anyone he sees as a possible rival (aka. an older white male perceived as successful), and he isn't going to let what's left of the GOP establishment dictate terms to him.

He's going to pick someone he likes, who doesn't seem threatening to his ego, and who he perceives as giving him an edge. He might go for a younger white male who offers sufficient flattery, but a non-white male candidate like Allen West or Kristi Noem, who is sufficiently ingratiating and flattering, seems more likely to me.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump was convinced that he had to take Pence to get Evangelical support. He has doubtless deeply regretted that decision ever since, and certainly doesn't think he "needs" to win over Evangelicals or establishment Republicans.  I'm also skeptical that he will choose anyone he sees as a possible rival (aka. an older white male perceived as successful), and he isn't going to let what's left of the GOP establishment dictate terms to him.

He's going to pick someone he likes, who doesn't seem threatening to his ego, and who he perceives as giving him an edge. He might go for a younger white male who offers sufficient flattery, but a non-white male candidate like Allen West or Kristi Noem, who is sufficiently ingratiating and flattering, seems more likely to me.

I wonder how picking Gingrich or Christie would have went in 2016. Doubling down on your strengths as a loud mouth tough guy could work. It worked for having two moderate Southerners in 1992 for the Clinton/Gore ticket.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/15/pompeo-launches-political-group-494513

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is launching an organization to support Republican candidates in the 2022 midterm elections and build his national political profile, as the GOP ponders its future after the Trump administration.

Pompeo told POLITICO in a telephone interview that he was starting a political action committee that will allow him to travel the country and campaign, fundraise and donate to GOP office-seekers. The vehicle, dubbed the Champion American Values PAC or CAVPAC, will be able to raise unlimited amounts of money and help candidates running for federal, state and local offices.
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Pompeo dodged a question about whether he would run for president if Trump mounted a 2024 comeback bid, saying he hadn’t “given it enough thought” because he was focused on the 2022 elections, not the next race for the White House.

But he added that he was intent on "deliver[ing] good outcomes for the American people” and said that “wherever I can be the most effective in delivering those outcomes, whether it’s as a candidate, or in this case supporting candidates, that’s what my wife and I aim to do.”

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump was convinced that he had to take Pence to get Evangelical support. He has doubtless deeply regretted that decision ever since, and certainly doesn't think he "needs" to win over Evangelicals or establishment Republicans.  I'm also skeptical that he will choose anyone he sees as a possible rival (aka. an older white male perceived as successful), and he isn't going to let what's left of the GOP establishment dictate terms to him.

He's going to pick someone he likes, who doesn't seem threatening to his ego, and who he perceives as giving him an edge. He might go for a younger white male who offers sufficient flattery, but a non-white male candidate like Allen West or Kristi Noem, who is sufficiently ingratiating and flattering, seems more likely to me.

I wonder how picking Gingrich or Christie would have went in 2016. Doubling down on your strengths as a loud mouth tough guy could work. It worked for having two moderate Southerners in 1992 for the Clinton/Gore ticket.

Pence probably was the right running mate for 2016, as his least worst choice with the smallest potential to backfire, but in 2024 it won't matter as much who he picks and so will probably pick someone who is more of a firebrand like him. I agree that Noem has a really good chance at being number two...I mean, she is a number two.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Jared Kushner lands a 2022 memoir deal with HarperCollins.

"'His book will be the definitive, thorough recounting of the administration — and the truth about what happened behind closed doors,' Broadside announced Tuesday."

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-jared-kushner-middle-east-entertainment-business-c339b8a137e126f76ad6aef346f85007

[AltWorlder]

Everyone in this thread, I must ask if any of you think that Trump is a long-term thinker with strong impulse control. There you have it. Trump himself doesn't know whether or not he will run and I maintain he will not know earlier than summer 2023. Until then all of this wild speculation is for naught, just giving him more attention which is not bad in of itself but ultimately trivial.

I would rather take bets on when Trump will decide for certain and stick to it by 2024. Even if he was to declare his intentions tomorrow I would not give it any weight until, like I said, by summer 2023. That is what he did for 2016 and that is what he'll do again the next.

[Calthrina950]

I wasn't sure where else to post this, but I had an interesting "encounter" at my job today. I had to checkout a customer who was wearing a "Trump 2024" hat, the first time I've seen someone wearing that kind of hat. He asked me if I liked his hat. I hesitated, and after some delay, I lied and said yes. He then mentioned the Arizona audit which that pro-Republican firm has been conducting for weeks now, and claimed that they had found 20,000 illegal votes. I just shook my head and didn't say anything to the contrary, as I was on the clock and I didn't want to cause trouble. But this was yet another indicator to me of how strong Trump's support remains among the Republican base, and why I believe that the nomination is his unless he decides not to run.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wasn't sure where else to post this, but I had an interesting "encounter" at my job today. I had to checkout a customer who was wearing a "Trump 2024" hat, the first time I've seen someone wearing that kind of hat. He asked me if I liked his hat. I hesitated, and after some delay, I lied and said yes. He then mentioned the Arizona audit which that pro-Republican firm has been conducting for weeks now, and claimed that they had found 20,000 illegal votes. I just shook my head and didn't say anything to the contrary, as I was on the clock and I didn't want to cause trouble. But this was yet another indicator to me of how strong Trump's support remains among the Republican base, and why I believe that the nomination is his unless he decides not to run.

There are many things I can't stand about Trump supporters, but in this instance you highlighted a consistent assumption that some have that everyone else agrees with them. It reminds me of a person my mom met a Dunkin Donuts the weekend before the election where the guy, unprompted, waiting behind her in line struck up a conversation about how they won't have to wear masks anymore once Trump wins again on Tuesday. There's a real arrogance about them sometimes whereas most of us Biden supporters are never so in-your-face about our support for our candidate in my experience.

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis gives a non-answer when asked about his 2024 plans:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/435969-2024-desantis-dance/

“I get, probably everywhere I go, I get people that have all these ideas and people can say what they want, but you know, we’ve got a lot to do here, so that’s the focus that I have, and we look forward to getting off and running for the 2022 cycle. Obviously, we’re planning a lot, we’re doing the stuff we need to do, there will be more coming in that regard. But look, at the end of the day, we’re really happy with the direction that the state is going,” DeSantis said.

Liz Cheney also continues to give a non-answer on this question:

https://gruntstuff.com/rep-liz-cheney-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-run/197103/

Home Republican Convention Chair Liz Cheney is not ruling out a possible presidential bid, The Submit has realized.

“I’m not ruling something in or out — ever is a very long time,” she advised The Submit when requested if she would ever contemplate running sooner or later. 

[Joey1996]

Pretty comfortable in saying Pence's career in politics is over.

[Mr. Morden]

More Pompeo:

https://www.newsweek.com/mike-pompeo-mum-potential-2024-presidential-run-amid-speculation-only-lord-knows-1601722

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is staying silent on a potential 2024 presidential run, amid speculation he may run as the GOP nominee, saying that "only the Lord knows where I'll be in 2023."

Pompeo, who was the CIA director as well as secretary of state under former President Donald Trump, made the comment Thursday to the Associated Press when asked about his political plans and whether a decision on a presidential bid would change if Trump chooses to run again. He established his own political action committee two days ago.

"But make no mistake about it: This fight for these things that I care so deeply about...that we have worked on and done our best to serve, to deliver, is something that we're just not going to walk away from," Pompeo said.
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On Thursday, he said he plans to campaign in South Carolina for Governor Henry McMaster, who is seeking his second full term in office next year.

[Mr. Morden]

Tucker Carlson on 2024:

https://news.yahoo.com/oh-god-come-tucker-carlson-111531658.html

Tucker Carlson — the top-rated host in cable news, who's rumored as a possible GOP presidential candidate in 2024 — told the "Ruthless" podcast he has no plans to run.

"Oh, God, come on!" Carlson told the hosts. "That seems like a fun job!" [Laughter] "No! No!"

Carlson said he has known and talked to every president for about 30 years: "I can't think of any one whose life was improved ... I guess if I was the last person on earth who could do it. But that seems pretty unlikely that I would be that guy — you know what I mean? ... I'm a talk show host; I enjoy it."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pretty comfortable in saying Pence's career in politics is over.

I wonder if he thinks it was all worth it.

Tucker Carlson on 2024:

https://news.yahoo.com/oh-god-come-tucker-carlson-111531658.html

Tucker Carlson — the top-rated host in cable news, who's rumored as a possible GOP presidential candidate in 2024 — told the "Ruthless" podcast he has no plans to run.

"Oh, God, come on!" Carlson told the hosts. "That seems like a fun job!" [Laughter] "No! No!"

Carlson said he has known and talked to every president for about 30 years: "I can't think of any one whose life was improved ... I guess if I was the last person on earth who could do it. But that seems pretty unlikely that I would be that guy — you know what I mean? ... I'm a talk show host; I enjoy it."

He already practically is a shadow President for the GOP already, he doesn't need the job to have influence.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1407163046506680327

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1407163046506680327

I'd vote for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump asked about his decision about whether to run in 2024, and gives a non-answer:

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2021/june/president-trump-tells-why-he-may-run-again-in-2024-our-country-is-really-america-last-i-was-america-first

So, what would impact that decision? "Well, I think I'm just looking at what's going on, I'm very unhappy with what's going on," President Trump tells CBN News. "I look at the border where people are coming in by the millions. It's going to be by the millions very soon, it already is. I look at other things, how our country is really America last. I was America first. I look at it and I see what's happening and I'm not happy about it, so we'll make that decision, and I think people will be very happy with the decision I make."  
  
When it comes to the 2024 presidential race, also in the conversation on the Republican side: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump is a fan.

"I think Ron is very good," says the former president. "I endorsed him and when I endorsed him he went up like a rocket ship. He understands that. He's doing a good job. We have a number of people that are doing a very good job. Ron's a friend of mine. He's been great."  

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1407163046506680327

I'd vote for him.

This is not a winning slogan.

[Mr. Morden]

2024ers eye NY donors:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/pompeo-other-2024-gop-hopefuls-head-to-new-york-to-meet-donors-.html

A growing group of Republicans who could run for president in 2024 are making their way to New York to meet with lucrative donors.

Potential contenders who either have or are set to gather with donors in the Big Apple include former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sens. Tim Scott and Marco Rubio and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to people briefed on the matter and invitations to fundraising events.

Though Scott, Rubio and DeSantis are up for reelection in 2022, raising money for those campaigns could translate into financial support for a 2024 presidential run. Pompeo recently launched the Champion American Values PAC to help Republicans running in 2022, including those in the House and Senate, and these meetings could end up helping him bring in cash for this venture.

Pompeo has been making the biggest push into New York donor circles since the 2020 presidential election ended, according to insiders familiar with the efforts. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely about private events.

“He’s basically already running for the presidency,” said one of the people familiar with Pompeo’s New York meetings. A recent straw poll at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver showed DeSantis ranked first, just ahead of former President Donald Trump among potential presidential candidates. Behind Trump in that poll is Sen. Ted Cruz, Pompeo and Scott.