The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

Tucker Carlson running in 2024 is about as likely as Stephen Colbert running a serious campaign for President in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/12/larry-hogan-2024-republicans-358051

As rumors swirl that Larry Hogan is eyeing a run for president in 2024, the Republican governor of Maryland has some advice for the post-Trump GOP: Be more like me.

“I don't know what the future holds in November, but I know that the Republican Party is going to be looking at what happens after President [Donald] Trump and whether that's in four months or four years,” Hogan said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”


That, Hogan argued, should include becoming more inclusive.


“I think they're going to be looking to, ‘How do we go about becoming a bigger tent party?’” he told host Chuck Todd.

Hogan pointed to his 2018 reelection as the model, when he won in Maryland, a deeply Democratic state by twelve points. He also cited the fact he won votes from suburban women, Democrats and Independents, the latter two groups being groups that appear to have ditched President Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

Has anyone noticed that Joe Biden in his recent economic recovery speech twice said that he would create that many jobs "in my first four years alone" and "just in my first term"? I think this may indicate he hasn't settled on being a one-termer already. So if his health permits it, I could see him running for reelection.

Even as an incumbent, I find it hard to believe an 82 year old Biden would win a Democratic Primary for President.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/07/16/michelle-obama-announces-new-spotify-podcast-shares-special-guests/5449758002/

So, Michelle Obama is starting a podcast.

I only bring that up in the context of a possible Presidential bid because of some of her guests...

Special guests will include late night host Conan O'Brien; obstetrician-gynecologist Dr. Sharon Malone (who is also the wife of former Attorney General Eric Holder); Obama's older brother and executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches Craig Robinson; former Obama White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett; and journalist Michele Norris.

Valerie Jarrett and Sharon Malone (Eric Holder's wife) stand out for those with a political point of view.

That said, this podcast isn't about politics, but one has to imagine the subject will come up...especially with some guests (like Jarrett.)

[NewYorkExpress]

Christie reiterates that he might run for prez again in 2024.  At about the 15:55 mark in this video he's asked about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiy37CumQWA

“I would certainly look at the race in 2024, and I would not back off from that at all."

And then a bit later:

“Maybe 2024 is the time to go after that job again.”

Looks like, uncommonly for a politician seriously plotting a presidential run in a couple of years, Christie is currently spending his time cashing in on being a lobbyist:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/chris-christie-cashes-in-on-coronavirus-lobbying-380640

The former New Jersey governor is making big money from businesses trying to tap the gusher of coronavirus relief funds coming from the federal government. Newly filed disclosures show Christie’s firm pulled in $240,000 in less than three months for lobbying the Trump administration on coronavirus aid on behalf of three New Jersey hospital systems and a Tennessee-based chain of addiction treatment centers.
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Christie is hardly the first former governor to land on K Street. But it’s unusual for a former presidential candidate who hasn't ruled out running again to become a lobbyist, especially without joining a major Washington firm. And he’s off to a fast start pulling in business: Christie registered to lobby for the first time only last month, in the middle of a lobbying boom fueled by the federal government’s multitrillion-dollar response to the pandemic.

Hillary Clinton was essentially a lobbyist in all but name between 2013 and 2015.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/08/11/desantis-squelches-talk-of-a-white-house-run-1307396

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he plans to run for a second four-year term and expects to make a formal announcement at the end of the year.

He said speculation about a 2024 White House bid was “total garbage" but did not specifically rule out the possibility of a presidential bid.


In an interview, the Republican said it was a “safe assumption” he would run for a second term as governor.

“I’m planning that, I haven’t announced yet, but I think it’s a safe assumption that I will do it,” DeSantis said.

“Any political stuff that you hear along those lines—that is total garbage,” DeSantis said of speculation that he'll mount a White House bid. “It’s not coming from me. I’m just doing a day at a time.”

Hmm...a non-denial-denial. Assuming DeSantis wins reelection, I think he's running in 2024.

I guess the question is would he defer to Marco Rubio or Rick Scott?

[NewYorkExpress]

Potentially relevant re: Warren's future presidential intentions:

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1294054174859186177
Unclear if this was just spin to help her land the job, or alternatively if this was specific to a scenario in which Biden wins this year.  But if serious, it sounds like, even if Trump wins this time and there's an open Dem. contest again in 2024, Warren might not run.

I liked Warren this time, but I won't vote for her in 2024, regardless of what I think of her politics. I like my Presidential candidates on the younger side of seventy.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cardi-b-aoc-endorsement-trnd/index.html

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1294623988656660481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%...

That's not even an attempt at a denial.

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

[NewYorkExpress]

Sanders says another presidential campaign by him is "very unlikely":

https://www.gazettenet.com/How-Sanders-is-helping-keep-the-progressive-movement-strong-35774671

That’s a part of a larger fight that could dominate future presidential races Sanders won’t run in. He said it is “very unlikely” that he’s a 2024 presidential candidate, but also refused to speculate on who might succeed him as the movement’s next White House hopeful.

“They want to know who’s running in 2092,” he joked. “In 2092, there was a baby that was born yesterday that announced her candidacy.”

I still think Sanders will at least consider running a third time in 2024 (assuming he's healthy enough to do so). His chances to do so probably increase if Biden actually is running, because I doubt anyone else is actually going to challenge Biden in a primary (except maybe Yang).

Donald Trump being deprived of the nomination next week is more likely than the scenario you describe of Bernie primarying an incumbent Biden.

This is the same guy who suggested Obama should get a primary challenge. Why wouldn't he (or Ocasio-Cortez, for that matter) try to primary out Biden?

[NewYorkExpress]

Politico has a new 2024 story:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/18/trump-republican-convention-2024-race-396630

snip

Also, uncertainty on who will be given a convention speaking slot next week:

snip

If there's a significant number of people really thinking of running for the Republican nomination in 2024, then I'm curious why we're not hearing more about back-biting & internal sabotage of the re-election campaign.

These folks do understand that if he wins in November, then the 2024 nomination isn't worth winning, right? Or are they actually that dense?

Probably because the endorsement of a two-term President Trump (regardless of his political fortunes) would be very valuable. Assuming there even is a 2024 election in this scenario, I don't think it's automatic that Pence gets Trump's endorsement.

[NewYorkExpress]

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)

Shoot the prisoners? As much as I'd like to see the Trump family executed, I can assure everyone a Biden Presidency would not do such a thing.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/terry-branstad-us-ambassador-china-resigns/

U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is stepping down amid increasingly strained ties between the world's two biggest economies, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday on Twitter. Thanking Branstad for his service, Pompeo said in a tweet that he had "contributed to rebalancing U.S.-China relations so that it is results-oriented, reciprocal, and fair."


The reasons for the ambassador's departure, which the U.S. Embassy later confirmed in a statement, were not immediately clear.

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There was no immediate indication from Pompeo or the U.S. embassy as to who President Trump might nominate to replace Branstad, or what the GOP veteran's next step might be. 

Just a note to point out that the last Republican Governor to serve as Ambassador to China (Jon Huntsman) ended up running for President in the next election after his resignation.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nina Turner says she's "thinking about" 2024.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqH4XWy3Nko

The only way she gets any traction at all is if Biden/Harris is the only other candidate running, and even then, that's unlikely (especially against Harris).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/is-it-even-possible-for-meghan-markle-to-become-the-u-s-president.html/

Completely bizarre showbiz article speculating on Meghan Markle running. I thought she gave up her U.S citizenship when she married into the British Royal Family...but I guess not?

She is political enough, living in the U.S again, and old enough...

[NewYorkExpress]

Noem would be a decent GE candidate but she won’t ever win a primary

If Republicans want a female candidate in 2024, they'd be better off nominating Nikki Haley (she left the Trump administration on good terms, and that will be important for his loyalists), Sarah Palin (she's still in tune with the base) or possibly as a longshot, Liz Cheney.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1314646154190172161
https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1314644910285389825

Tim Scott seems like a choice that actually might make sense if Republicans want to win, but don't want to nominate Nikki Haley for some reason.

He's a minority, he's from a key early state in the primaries (South Carolina), can make inroads with a traditionally Democratic voting bloc (African Americans), and is relatively conservative.

[NewYorkExpress]

Any celebrities or billionaire businessmen made any noises yet?

Other than Meghan Markle? No.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, this is interesting as it pertains to 2024.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/politics/larry-hogan-ronald-reagan-donald-trump/index.html

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican and outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, wrote in Ronald Reagan for president when he cast his 2020 ballot.

"I know it's simply symbolic. It's not going to change the outcome in my state. But I thought it was important to just cast a vote that showed the kind of person I'd like to see in office," Hogan told The Washington Post in an interview released Friday.

The vote makes Hogan one of the highest-profile Republicans who is not supporting Trump for reelection, though his decision to not back Democratic nominee Joe Biden could be seen as a way for him to refocus attention on his ongoing criticism of Trump and maintain standing in the Republican Party in case he decides to continue his political career beyond his current term in office.

The Maryland governor, a moderate Republican speculated to be considering a 2024 presidential bid, has long been critical of Trump, and the pandemic has exacerbated the tension between them.

[NewYorkExpress]

Presumably this doesn't really mean anything, since NH is just one of many swing states he's visiting, but in the interests of documenting every NH trip, Pence will be in NH on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/VPComDir/status/1318169584336240641

Florida's probably going to be early enough in the primary season to be relevant too.

[NewYorkExpress]

Vermont Governor Phil Scott has told reporters he has voted for Joe Biden.

I don't think he's given any indication that he's going to run for president, so I don't think this is that relevant for 2024?

KaiserDave would love to see Scott run in 2024...

[NewYorkExpress]

CNN article on how Mike Pompeo's trip to the Golan Heights and the West Bank is advancing a possible 2024 campaign.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's groundbreaking trip to a West Bank settlement Thursday was meant to highlight the Trump administration's commitment to Israel. Instead, it reignited speculation that the top US diplomat's higher priority is his own political future.

Pompeo, the first US secretary of state to visit a settlement and the Golan Heights, touted the Trump administration's break with international consensus to recognize settlements as Israeli territory and its determination to help Israeli businesses in the West Bank avoid international sanctions. But when the news inadvertently leaked that the trip was being described as part of the "Pompeo Doctrine," the criticism was instantaneous.

"Pompeo's West Bank winery and Golan excursions have nothing to do with America's ambitions but his own in 2024," Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, tweeted.

Pompeo's visit was in line with the Trump administration's stated policy and those who know him well argued that he was just doing his job. "Arguably anytime he does something for his job you could say he is making a 2024 play," said a source close to the secretary.

Others viewed it differently. Presidential historian Michael Beschloss chimed in. "A Secretary of State should not use his Senate-confirmed job to run for President."

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump really saved Pence's political career. No wonder he's been such a supplicant. He owes Trump a personal debt. I doubt he'd run against Trump in 2024.

I think Pence would run against Trump, if he saw polling numbers that looked good for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Larry Hogan and Joe Lieberman have been named co-chairs of No Labels.

Maryland's Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is joining the bipartisan group No Labels as its new national co-chairman.

Hogan joins Joseph Liberman, a one-time vice presidential nominee and former Connecticut senator, who served as a Democrat before switching to an independent in his final years on Capitol Hill.

Together they will help lead the organization that promotes centrist political ideas as a new Congress is set to convene early next year.

"I am honored to help lead No Labels at a time when our message of putting aside partisan differences for the common good is needed more than ever," Hogan said in a statement Tuesday.

Lieberman of course, was Al Gore's VP nominee in 2000, and ran for President in his own right in 2004.

Hogan is widely speculated to be a likely 2024 candidate for President.