UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

[TheTide]

Anderson and Galloway are sitting next to each other at PMQs, perhaps showing that they have something of a sense of humour. It was suggested that Bridgen and Corbyn should sit next to each other but I don't think that has happened.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

But if they are heavily defeated in a May GE, they will lose shedloads of council seats anyway (don't forget when most of the seats were last contested, after all) The "Tories have to go in May because councillors" thing is heavily overplayed by some.

And they still have money, and so can pay people to deliver their stuff at the end of the day.

[Torrain]

But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Haven’t seem cope on that level since 2022, when one of Johnson’s SPADs briefed that if Putin just nuked Ukraine, people would rally around the flag, with Johnson’s position secured and the party ready to win a new election.

Been trying to find that quote - it really is something.

[MillennialModerate]

Conspiracy theorists drive me crazy - they’re annoying. But it’s obvious there is some issue with her. Seeing that she was seen in a car with him tells me she isn’t having a medical issue - I think there may be issues with the relationship… what else could it be? If there is nothing going on then the way they’ve butchered the media on this is confounding.

On the political side…Sunak is selfish. He’s going to wait as long as possible - it’ll be in LATE fall.

It’ll be funny to see a British election and an American one at almost the same time

[Torrain]

Busy morning, but have been catching up on PMQs. And man… Sunak really decided to tie himself to the donor, and tell successive MPs that it’s ok to continue their association because he apologised.

Sunak using that patronising tone he falls back on when stressed, even when being pressed by black MPs like Marsha de Cordova felt particularly ill-judged. All while Abbott sat in sombre silence at the back of the chamber - looking truly grave.

Tory backbenches furious too - critics making clear his weakness on the right flank. Mark Francois tearing strips off him for the cuts to defence spending. Miriam Cates scathing about changes to the extremism definition proposed by Michael Gove. Andrea Jenkyns trying to back him into a corner on the ECHR.

Sunak didn’t fall apart, or get as rattled as he has at his worst. But the mood music was the worst it’s been in quite some time.

[Hnv1]

On that subject, here's quite a piece from The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/rishi-sunak-warned-off-may-general-election/

The main points are:

- The 1922 Committee has urged Sunak not to go for May. Does this mean that Sunak is seriously considering it?

- At the same time, a minority is urging him to go for it.

- Sunak has been told that he could be in real danger of a coup after the local elections, something which has been talked about for quite a while.

- But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Desperation level: hoping England winning an international tournament (in itself a miracle) will save your party politically

[TheTide]

Daily Mirror's political editor:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1767903213716480174?s=20

This at a briefing by the Downing Street Press Secretary.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

But if they are heavily defeated in a May GE, they will lose shedloads of council seats anyway (don't forget when most of the seats were last contested, after all) The "Tories have to go in May because councillors" thing is heavily overplayed by some.

And they still have money, and so can pay people to deliver their stuff at the end of the day.

I bet Andy Street, for one, is not hoping for a may general election.

[TheTide]

On that subject, here's quite a piece from The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/rishi-sunak-warned-off-may-general-election/

The main points are:

- The 1922 Committee has urged Sunak not to go for May. Does this mean that Sunak is seriously considering it?

- At the same time, a minority is urging him to go for it.

- Sunak has been told that he could be in real danger of a coup after the local elections, something which has been talked about for quite a while.

- But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Desperation level: hoping England winning an international tournament (in itself a miracle) will save your party politically

This is something that goes back to 1970, when England's World Cup exit was blamed by some for Labour's (unexpected) defeat in the general election that followed a few days after it. Oddly enough I don't think Labour got a polling bounce from the 1966 World Cup.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Conspiracy theorists drive me crazy - they’re annoying. But it’s obvious there is some issue with her. Seeing that she was seen in a car with him tells me she isn’t having a medical issue - I think there may be issues with the relationship… what else could it be? If there is nothing going on then the way they’ve butchered the media on this is confounding.

There are in fact many medical circumstances, some of them extremely serious, which do not prevent the sufferer from being a passenger in a car. Consult your family doctor for more information on this.

On that subject, here's quite a piece from The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/rishi-sunak-warned-off-may-general-election/

The main points are:

- The 1922 Committee has urged Sunak not to go for May. Does this mean that Sunak is seriously considering it?

- At the same time, a minority is urging him to go for it.

- Sunak has been told that he could be in real danger of a coup after the local elections, something which has been talked about for quite a while.

- But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Desperation level: hoping England winning an international tournament (in itself a miracle) will save your party politically

This is something that goes back to 1970, when England's World Cup exit was blamed by some for Labour's (unexpected) defeat in the general election that followed a few days after it. Oddly enough I don't think Labour got a polling bounce from the 1966 World Cup.

Given that the general election was in March and the World Cup was in July, this is less surprising than you might think.

[TheTide]

Given that the general election was in March and the World Cup was in July, this is less surprising than you might think.

I know, but I'm pretty sure the (limited) polling evidence doesn't show that there was a bounce in the government's popularity after the World Cup. Three of the 1997-2010 government's most noticeable polling bounces (although none of them were that long-term) came a few months after general elections (a comparable time as to between the 1966 general election and the World Cup) and each concerned a tragic event - the death of Princess Diana, 9/11 and the start of the War on Terror and the 7/7 London attacks. Generally it's major tragic events that boost a government, although I'm not sure there's anyone even in the present Tory Party who would be stupid/sociopathic enough to say that that's what could boost the party's fortunes before the GE. Frivolous feel-good events don't seem to have much effect on any government's popularity - the 2012 Olympics didn't boost the Coalition much IIRC. The government and the Prime Minister were unpopular enough that Boris Johnson (the one politician who did get a boost from it) got an even more increased amount of hype about him taking over the Tory leadership.

[Earthling]

Andy Coulson wants Keir Starmer to keep Dodgy Dave at the Foreign Office.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/opinion-bold-keir-starmer-keep-185149162.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA9dIgi1d3SXWucVKBUEGkNANc8ipEiaus-uHFsyelAsAZM3py4hDMyZJVFyXs5DNhSvPxeXduFHGXtel36pSJra45nT1lTSCsm66y5BNxrjgvVAYvz5Ml9QxEvJFHmc80jUBiA4GfWc66iJj_WnUZkSoUt10KEL_J630Eut4b2f

Yeah, that is going to happen.

[YL]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

But if they are heavily defeated in a May GE, they will lose shedloads of council seats anyway (don't forget when most of the seats were last contested, after all) The "Tories have to go in May because councillors" thing is heavily overplayed by some.

And they still have money, and so can pay people to deliver their stuff at the end of the day.

I bet Andy Street, for one, is not hoping for a may general election.

The main likely Tory beneficiaries in the local elections from having the General on the same day will be those in areas where the Lib Dems and Greens (and I suppose localists/residents/independents) are competitive locally but not for Westminster. I suspect on balance it would help them but I doubt it'll be a decisive factor in Sunak's decision making; the case for May is probably more a suspicion that they are likely to lose by even more in the autumn than in May.

[Torrain]

After some of their sampling messes over the past few years, I don’t really trust Redfield and Wilton numbers. But their latest Holyrood numbers suggest an outcome that would make 2007 look civil:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1767966664245588438
I mean, the layers:

• The Lib-Lab and SNP-Green blocs tied, meaning a First Minister would be reliant on right wing votes - triggering some recriminations..
• Reform entering Holyrood - the first time anyone to the right of the Tories has ever won a seat in Edinburgh.
• Every bill requiring consensus across major dividing lines, either Left-Right or Unionist-Nationalist.
• And Alba completely locked out of office. The scene of Richard Tice being more relevant in Edinburgh than Alex Salmond - rather a ‘continuing-SDP beaten by the Raving Loony Party’ scenario.

In the event we end up with a parliament this divided, we’d finally need a Holyrood megathread, for the confidence motions alone…

[afleitch]

Very mild recovery with R&W. Not as strong as with Survation which was the best result since last April, but that's pretty much a house effect with R&W; marginal changes at Westminster. Bouncy, bouncy at Holyrood.

Holyrood polling is just for fun at the moment; eighteen months to two years into a Labour government who knows what the situation will be. A popular Labour government is a big long term risk for the SNP. An unpopular one, an opportunity.

[Silent Hunter]

Andy McDonald has got the Labour whip back

[Coldstream]

Andy McDonald has got the Labour whip back

Never liked him, but I’d say this is the right call. He has engaged constructively (unlike certain others) and he seems genuine. Readmitting Huq & Coyle but not him would have seemed ridiculous. Having said that I still wouldn’t be surprised if the NEC blocks all 3 from standing in the end.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that efforts are being made to get Coyle to retire for his own good (there is likely less chance of him falling off the wagon if he leaves parliament) For different reasons, I think quite a few behind the scenes (including her friends) are trying to get Abbott to call it a day, there may be a chance of her getting the whip back as a goodwill gesture if she is thus persuaded.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Huq and McDonald allowed to stand again, personally.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If McDonald were not to be allowed to stand again (which is unlikely) then I do not think the actual cause would be his comments, or indeed his ideology.

[Coldstream]

There’s lots of reasons to think the NEC will use an election to purge the PLP of its more embarrassing members, overtly or otherwise (Coyle, Duffield, Begum to name a few) and fill safe/held seats with people loyal/reliable to the leadership. The only reasons not to are 1. The media backlash throwing off the campaign or 2. A fear that LOTO/L2W’s control of the party is less than total. Given the abject humiliations inflicted on the left in recent years, 2 seems unlikely to me.

I really think there’s an underestimation of how much the party leadership overlearned the lessons of Corbynism in general & specifically O’Mara/Onasanya and the degree to which they are trying to make sure the PLP is as rigid as possible.

[Dan the Roman]

There’s lots of reasons to think the NEC will use an election to purge the PLP of its more embarrassing members, overtly or otherwise (Coyle, Duffield, Begum to name a few) and fill safe/held seats with people loyal/reliable to the leadership. The only reasons not to are 1. The media backlash throwing off the campaign or 2. A fear that LOTO/L2W’s control of the party is less than total. Given the abject humiliations inflicted on the left in recent years, 2 seems unlikely to me.

I really think there’s an underestimation of how much the party leadership overlearned the lessons of Corbynism in general & specifically O’Mara/Onasanya and the degree to which they are trying to make sure the PLP is as rigid as possible.

Duffield, if she would shut up a bit, has value as a Sister Souhjah. As long as she exists in the parliamentary party, and is perceived as "protected" by the leadership, they can counter any backlash for any policies they do undertake. As it seems clear a Labour government will do a lot of things that will piss off Duffield's, erm, fan-base, keeping her around while also passing a Trans-inclusive conversion therapy-ban allows attention to be redirected as needed. Provided Duffield has an on/off button. That, of course, has been called into doubt.

[Blair]

There’s lots of reasons to think the NEC will use an election to purge the PLP of its more embarrassing members, overtly or otherwise (Coyle, Duffield, Begum to name a few) and fill safe/held seats with people loyal/reliable to the leadership. The only reasons not to are 1. The media backlash throwing off the campaign or 2. A fear that LOTO/L2W’s control of the party is less than total. Given the abject humiliations inflicted on the left in recent years, 2 seems unlikely to me.

I really think there’s an underestimation of how much the party leadership overlearned the lessons of Corbynism in general & specifically O’Mara/Onasanya and the degree to which they are trying to make sure the PLP is as rigid as possible.

My perhaps incorrect reading of 2010 and 2017 was that the unions will go along as long as chairs get found for a few allies when the music stops.

I might be wrong but the labour 2017 intake in safe seats and marginals was actually quite strong it was the just let down by the No-hope seats where the getting was a tad patchy

[Zinneke]

Andy McDonald has got the Labour whip back

Never liked him, but I’d say this is the right call. He has engaged constructively (unlike certain others) and he seems genuine. Readmitting Huq & Coyle but not him would have seemed ridiculous. Having said that I still wouldn’t be surprised if the NEC blocks all 3 from standing in the end.

"We will not rest until we have justice. Until all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea, can live in peaceful liberty"

Am I the only one who finds this incredibly mild for a suspension in the first place? He was hardly saying that Palestine should be established from the river to the sea as the more recognisable chant suggests. Meanwhile the Israeli ambassador, a political stooge of Netenyahu, is allowed to say "river to the sea" for Israel's land claims.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The point was that the PLP had been warned off using the phrase, he deliberately tried to find the most innocuous context to use it in, and the decision was made to throw the book at him anyway to show that they really weren't kidding. Posturing all round.