UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

But outside the hard core (some of whom could still end up voting Reform for other reasons) even saying that "we delivered on our pledge to bring about Brexit" is a bit of a double edged sword now.

Agree on why not just Labour but LibDems are still mostly keeping quiet about it now (to the chagrin of extremely online #FBPE types) but this is something where simply the Tories losing power could make a significant difference, plus demographics as WW2 obsessed boomers finally start to die off.

[TheTide]

Reviving the Brexit issue is IMO one of the few ways Labour can blow up their massive lead now, and perhaps lose if they are doing it after entering government.  Yes, the country overall seems to have a majority now in favor of some nebulous type of reintegration, so Labour do have a justification.

 However,  as noted, it's just a dead and done issue to many, and the cost of living is now the order of the day. This change in voter behavior is why Labour are going to win (and already have in some By-Elections) many seats where the electorate is still going to defend Brexit, sometimes fiercely. Digging the issue back up is just going to reopen the polarized divides within the Labour vote, and give the Tories ways to easily win back the electorate.

Labour's reasoning is similar to their reasoning why (other than under Corbyn, to some extent) they have shied away since Kinnock-present from backing renationalisation of various sectors despite polls pretty consistently showing strong support for bringing railways, water, gas/electricity etc back into public ownership. The branding is often more important than the actual policies as far as 'electability' goes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It might be hard for foreigners to understand this but literally people don't talk about Brexit any more. It's not popular, but no-one really cares and it definitely isn't hurting the Tories - they do that well enough themselves.

Maybe not, but I think it’s a mistake by the Conservatives to not to talk about it, as big a pile of fecal matter it have been, it has been the only real success of the Conservatives. Yes, it won’t let them win the election, but it may remind some of their potential voters that they delivered on their promises.

If sunak couldn't even manage to remind tory voters he supported brexit from the begining unlike Truss, I doubt he can do it here. Besides the credit given for tories was largely "now we can stop banging on about it" so not really something you can continually bring up.

[MacShimidh]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

[ingemann]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

Another leadership farce and doubling down on issues the voters are loudly refusing to care about during a cost of living crisis? And you think that'll improve the situation?
...on the other hand this is basically what happened with Gillard/Rudd so maybe the Australian advisors will take the inspiration and run with it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

Another leadership farce and doubling down on issues the voters are loudly refusing to care about during a cost of living crisis? And you think that'll improve the situation?
...on the other hand this is basically what happened with Gillard/Rudd so maybe the Australian advisors will take the inspiration and run with it.

If Johnson was still in parliament I'm almost certain the tory party would have to do a kevin rudd reinstallation through gritted teeth to save the furniture, even though they hate Boris even more than the faceless men hated Rudd. A lot of parallels tbh (although rudd is obviously a better person than Boris).

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, one does wonder if he regrets quitting the Commons in a strop now.

[YL]

Yes, one does wonder if he regrets quitting the Commons in a strop now.

He would have been recalled and there would have been a by-election anyway. I know they won the actual by-election, but with him on the ballot it would have been an election about Johnson rather than one about ULEZ and I suspect he would have lost.

[CumbrianLefty]

I agree with that, but quitting removed any chance of him remaining relevant.

(in the near future at least)

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1775556851452752119

ummmm wtf

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I agree with that, but quitting removed any chance of him remaining relevant.

(in the near future at least)

If he was healthier and in a better financial situation i could even see him running as an independent somewhere and trying to rebuild his career that way.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

Another leadership farce and doubling down on issues the voters are loudly refusing to care about during a cost of living crisis? And you think that'll improve the situation?
...on the other hand this is basically what happened with Gillard/Rudd so maybe the Australian advisors will take the inspiration and run with it.

If Johnson was still in parliament I'm almost certain the tory party would have to do a kevin rudd reinstallation through gritted teeth to save the furniture, even though they hate Boris even more than the faceless men hated Rudd. A lot of parallels tbh (although rudd is obviously a better person than Boris).

The men in grey suits honestly still haven’t approached the level of vitriol Rudd got. Boris is still one of them, an old Etonian Oxford boy, just putting on a different act. Kevin was a Queensland (!) farm boy from a Country Party family, a Goss acolyte who strode in, double crossed Beasley and fcked over the Victorian branch, then quickly betrayed the NSW branch too. And most importantly of all, he was *never* a trade union member. No working class roots, no trade union activism, nothing. An academic obsessed with China, flipped a dalliance with diplomacy into Goss’s technocratic inner circle, then lucked into preselection.

[Thomas D]

"William Wragg told The Times he handed over the personal phone numbers to a person that he met on Grindr, which is a gay dating app."

A senior Conservative MP has admitted he was the victim of a phishing scam and handed over several MP's personal phone numbers

[Torrain]

Wragg has a pastoral role as vice-chair of the 1922 committee, and is chair of a Commons select committee with oversight of the entire civil service. Doesn’t look like continuing in either of those roles is particularly tenable right now. Particularly given that two MPs ended up being compromised by the scammer, as a direct result of him handing over their numbers.

He’s also a massive grandstander, who’s been behind the drives to remove Johnson and Truss from No.10 and Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker, alleging tremendous moral failings (true for Johnson, exaggerated for Truss, very contentious in the case of Hoyle). That’s earnt him more enemies than friends - with a number of backbench calls for him to leave parliament entirely.

He’s probably toast. Just a question of how badly burnt.

[YL]

Wragg has a pastoral role as vice-chair of the 1922 committee, and is chair of a Commons select committee with oversight of the entire civil service. Doesn’t look like continuing in either of those roles is particularly tenable right now. Particularly given that two MPs ended up being compromised by the scammer, as a direct result of him handing over their numbers.

He’s also a massive grandstander, who’s been behind the drives to remove Johnson and Truss from No.10 and Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker, alleging tremendous moral failings (true for Johnson, exaggerated for Truss, very contentious in the case of Hoyle). That’s earnt him more enemies than friends - with a number of backbench calls for him to leave parliament entirely.

He’s probably toast. Just a question of how badly burnt.

He was standing down at the General Election anyway, so the question is whether this is bad enough for him to quit early. I assume he'll at least stand down from his 1922 Committee and select committee positions.

[TheTide]

It does show the decline in the quality of MPs generally that Wragg is often referred to as a 'senior Tory MP'. It also shows that political careers are getting shorter - the supposedly 'senior' Wragg has only been an MP since 2015.

[Joe Republic]

It does show the decline in the quality of MPs generally that Wragg is often referred to as a 'senior Tory MP'. It also shows that political careers are getting shorter - the supposedly 'senior' Wragg has only been an MP since 2015.

He's also the grand old age of 36.

[LabourJersey]

It does show the decline in the quality of MPs generally that Wragg is often referred to as a 'senior Tory MP'. It also shows that political careers are getting shorter - the supposedly 'senior' Wragg has only been an MP since 2015.

Isn't that more of an example of how many old-guard Tories have either retired or been cast aside in the last 14 years?

[Coldstream]

I think Wragg is more idiot than traitor, but he should have lost the whip like his old master Bone.

[oldtimer]

It does show the decline in the quality of MPs generally that Wragg is often referred to as a 'senior Tory MP'. It also shows that political careers are getting shorter - the supposedly 'senior' Wragg has only been an MP since 2015.

Most of the Labour frontbench is also very new to parliament.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/TUVonline/status/1776526536134279202

Nightmare blunt rotation.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/TUVonline/status/1776526536134279202
Nightmare blunt rotation.

Always been quite amused that Kate Hoey - Northern Irish of a staunchly Orange persuasion, pro-hunting, Hard Brexiteer - represented Vauxhall.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, her politics *were* slightly different when she became an MP in 1989.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, her politics *were* slightly different when she became an MP in 1989.

Quite. As you'll probably remember, there was surprise that Blair made her a minister in 1998 as she was seen as very much on the Left and not interested in compromising for the wider good in the manner of, say, Margaret Beckett. It is probably fair to say that she has been on A Journey. Of course she always had a few views that didn't quite 'fit', but for a long time people just put them down to her being from Northern Ireland. 'Concerns' only really started when she was appointed as the Chair of the Countryside Alliance in 2005...