UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[MillennialModerate]

Also seems to have ruled out an early election...

Of course lol… she knows she’d get destroyed

[MillennialModerate]

A new dawn has broken, has it not?

BRING BACK BLAIR

[MillennialModerate]

Liz Truss is a dreadful person to lead the UK through a moment like this (or potential).

Major, Blair, Cameron … hell even May and Johnson would be better. And of course Starmer could be

[MillennialModerate]

It still confuses me how a second house works in a meaningful way in a parliamentary system.

If they have any sort of veto power at all it renders the government of the day useless.

With that said I think Browns plans to devolve THAT much are not a good idea. However I could get behind turning the upper house into a smaller house of regions that is elected every certain number of years - and it takes 70% to veto anything by the commons.

[MillennialModerate]

Also, Truss is a disaster. Truly terrible.

I wonder if Non-right wing Scotland voters will get the message they need to vote Labour to end the Truss led Tories. Otherwise it would take a massive popular vote number to get any sort of decent majority.

[MillennialModerate]

Also, Truss is a disaster. Truly terrible.

I wonder if Non-right wing Scotland voters will get the message they need to vote Labour to end the Truss led Tories. Otherwise it would take a massive popular vote number to get any sort of decent majority.

Why would they?

Why would they vote Labour? Because they want to get rid of the Tories?

[MillennialModerate]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

[MillennialModerate]

This is a joke….

They should be forced to have a General election.

[MillennialModerate]

I know the monarch is supposed to stay neutral but in a situstion like this it’s be nice if the King could nudge the government to call an election

[MillennialModerate]

The Tories have almost been polling 40 points behind in the most recent poll. 1993 Canada redux seems possible

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

[MillennialModerate]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

[MillennialModerate]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

Does this dooming get boring for you?

It’s not “dooming” it’s a reality.

You really DONT think the Tories will be in a better spot in 2 years? It’s hard to be a worse spot then they are now. So by default they will be in better shape. I’d still say Labour likely to win but not with a landslide

[MillennialModerate]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

[MillennialModerate]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720

To be fair, isn't this including a lot of constituencies that will vote SNP or for some other third party?

Exactly.

389 is a dreadful result already. You’d think it would be at around 500 with what you’ve seen in the polls

[MillennialModerate]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984

Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

[MillennialModerate]

I think this is the first poll we've seen with fieldwork entirely after Sunak became PM:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1585578135059369984
Early days, but just six weeks ago that would have been astonishingly bad for the Tories.

At this rate they’ll win 100% of seats by the next general election lol

And so it begins…

Mark my words. Just like the GOP, putting party over country will pay off.

Quote me: BEST case scenario for Labour is 350 seats. And even that is a stretch


“mUh bUt wUt aBoUt gEorGiA!!”

a 28% lead is still far better than the Lead they held before Truss

Of course it is. But acting like a lead that ballooned in 3 weeks is going to last 2 years is silliness.

God forbid I say that out loud … the ultra tolerant crowd wouldn’t like it

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

I mean… that’s large. But for a popular vote margin that high? It’s nowhere near the Labour majority of 1997 and 2001

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

Considering they were double that just a WEEK ago. And they need a 9% win to get a majority….

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

Given the voters who have moved, it would likely be a bigger number than that. 16pts would also be the largest PV margin since 1931.

Even if the number held it’d be irrelevant in the context of “historically large” because it would result in an underwhelming majority for such a popular vote margin because Labour has been emasculated in Scotland.

Reform (Brexit Party) have seen an odd little surge, perhaps on the back of the uncontested leadership contest or being 'true believers'.

I am a little sceptical of Reform UK's polling.  They have nearly zero visibility and their track record in actual elections is either virtually non-existent (locals) or underwhelming (parliamentary by-elections).

They had a chance to be a force to be reckoned with in 2019. If they had stood in every contest in the country they could have done some real damage. Won 10-12 seats. Of course they also would’ve likely left the commons deadlocked between Remainers and Brexiteers but still

[MillennialModerate]

I haven’t seen a poll in a while does that mean Labour is slipping?

[MillennialModerate]

I’ve said all along this landslide talk was nonsense.

This is not a Blair like moment.

Especially with the baked in Tory advantage in the map with Scotland being SNP land now.

I’d say Labour a favorite for sure. But a Tory win more likely than a Labour landslide
(which is shocking when you look at what the Tories have done to the UK in recent years)

[MillennialModerate]

I really liked David Cameron tbh

This confuses me. I thought I had the British sound down pat but how someone not an MP can have this position…..

[MillennialModerate]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930
Bluster - but fascinated by the thought of Levido and Crosby unironically advising this.

Either way, a clip that fans of the Who Governs Britain/Stop the Boats snap election strategy, like Braverman and Simon Clarke will seize on, when the Lords dig their heels in - as they will. 

I’ll say Never.

Unless the migrant issue being blocked shows a sharp change in the polls - no chance Sunak is gonna call an election that most polls show being historically bad (I think they are exaggerated and Labour could win around 340-350 but nothing close to Blair)

[MillennialModerate]

Another one - TechneUK have the Tories on 22%. Worth noting that 22% is the lowest Techne have every found for the Tories, and has only been reached on one other occasion - the direct aftermath of the mini-budget.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1725313575214813606

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

I mean those numbers would produce what - 450 for Labour and 120 for the Tories?

I just can’t see this actually playing out. Labour likely to win? Sure. But I think with seat totals similar to 2005 (except the LD seat total in ‘05 will be split between LD & SNP).

You’ll see some lifelong blue wall - one nation tories come home, the LibDems aren’t as much of a force so you likely won’t see many LD/Con marginals go for the LibDems and also Labour doesn’t have a guaranteed 50+ seats in Scotland they can rely on.

[MillennialModerate]

Conspiracy theorists drive me crazy - they’re annoying. But it’s obvious there is some issue with her. Seeing that she was seen in a car with him tells me she isn’t having a medical issue - I think there may be issues with the relationship… what else could it be? If there is nothing going on then the way they’ve butchered the media on this is confounding.

On the political side…Sunak is selfish. He’s going to wait as long as possible - it’ll be in LATE fall.

It’ll be funny to see a British election and an American one at almost the same time