UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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Chancellor Kwartang it is then.

Has been very close to Truss in the past. They know each other well and have often discussed matters affecting the country and, also, I believe Uganda.

Nice that such good friends can live next door to each other.

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Yeah, I think a 1997 Tory wipeout would have to come from a substantial Lib Dem rise or Reform (or whatever it's calling itself these days) finding Truss gov weak on immigration (one of the curious things about the current brand of Brexiteers in office is they genuinely believe immigration was incidental to brexit, and they have already signalled they want laws loosened as a result. Neither of which are impossible, but both LDs and especially Reform are not yet national forces.

As for Scotland, 2017 indicates that if people are relatively fine with Labour, a lot of seats can look awfully marginal.

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Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

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As an aside, I don't think there's ever been a Conference of a major British political party quite like this. Even the really bad Labour Conferences - even 2019, even more in the 1970s and 80s than I'd care to mention; yes, even the one where Trade Union General Secretaries accused each other of being JACKELS from the podium, live on on national television - were not this bad. This is a shitshow for All Time.

I guess the difference is that terrible Labour conventions are normally done from opposition, when nothing really matters anyway. Far more of a spectacle if we see this display from the actual governing party - nobody can look at this and not see a party totally going off the rails.

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Her backstory point is just weird as she’s from the background that imho dominates a decent chunk of middle management/professional life in the U.K- born to two professional middle class parents in a middle class suburb before going to Oxbridge/Russel Group uni.

Made no sense too as she had nothing to say on education or social mobility!

It's one of the most frustrating thing politicians do: would it be so hard to say "I want every child in this country to have the same opportunities I did" (yes, I know she doesn't think this is her priority, but most politicians have the ability to at least pretend to support vague egalitarianism)

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A) Burns statement on twitter is less "nicely worded lawyer approved boilerplate" more "passive aggressive digs clearly written from the heart/bottle".

B) Bournemouth West would be a dream by election for Starmer in this environment: it's a seat where Labour clearly underperform based on profile and - if polls are remotely accurate - would be won on an incredibly embarrassing swing in a seat where Labour has never won before.

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F**kin' ay:

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1580268039643070464

After the scare they got from Theresa May, they should have at least vetted for charisma. Ridiculous.

Truss is much, much worse on that front than May.

Yes, May at least had some gravitas wheras Truss carries student politician vibes.

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One of the big issues for the government (aside from the obvious) is that the backbenches are now full of ex ministers, failed rising stars, would-be grandees and the like: people who have tasted power and cannot be bossed around by anybody. Smith is just one example.

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People Polling have just released a poll which shows Lab - 54 Tory - 19

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Worth noting that Hunt also wanted to cut corporation tax during his leadership campaign.

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Incidentally, whose bright idea was it to have a major economic statement on October 31st? Will the next one be on April 1st?

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Those who are actually in power should have the dignity to seize it formally by installing an actual PM instead of using Truss as a meat puppet. This reeks of cowardice and the desire to avoid responsibility for enabling this maniac. Truss should have the courage to resign for her own good instead of holding onto a figurehead role that's nothing more than a poisoned chalice, a scarlet letter.

It's very peculiar. I can't think of a more humiliating position for a politician to be in - she's literally being treated as some kid playacting a big-girl job while the grown ups do the real work! And worse, this isn't some shadowy puppet master, but something literally everybody knows. If I was Truss, I would seriously consider spitefully calling a general to at least take out Hunt and Mordaunt along with everybody else.

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Smh Big Tofu strikes again

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Braverman may be the shortest serving Home Secretary since George Nugent-Temple-Grenville, 1st Marquess of Buckingham, who was appointed by Pitt the Younger for three days in 1783.

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Meanwhile, Chris Skidmore says that he won't support the government on fracking tonight and is prepared to lose the whip.

Interestingly he was one of the co-writers of the infamous Britannia Unchained (along with the late Chancellor, Truss herself, Patel and Dominic Raab - i guess he got the inevitable Bill Rodgers role).

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At this point, is there any way for the UK to have a stable government that lasts more than a handful of months or is it just going to be this sort of chaos over and over until the election finally gets called?

The rather brutal reality is that this is quite clearly the first Parliament with a secure majority out of which it is not possible to form a functional government since the 1900-06 Parliament after Chamberlain blew things up over tariffs. Quite remarkable really. Of course there are different levels of 'not functional': this is off the scale.

Could you also count the post 1918 Coupon government as another government elected to a huge majority that collapsed anyway?

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I still can’t get over it. This is textbook “free vote” stuff, right? A motion that ended up with a 100-vote margin, with specific defections already expected for constituency and manifesto-based reasons — why burn so much political capital on THIS, of all things?

Arguably it was even more idiotic than the mini budget, which at least makes sense if you remember Truss and Kwarteng are zealots with something to prove. This was just idiocy on a monumental scale, a classic example of looking both extremely weak and heavy handed at the same time.

I feel the root is a Whip culture where people are cosplaying as tough guy enforcers, without realising that the classic whips had a few more tricks up their sleeves than the Mafioso routine (and also not realising that the backbenches are not green rookie MPs but full of egos and has beens not afraid to show a bit of mettle).

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Will she get resignation honours?

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So it looks like Brady is saying there will be a membership vote. If that's the case, wouldn't the process drag out for a couple months like it did with BoJo? Or can they actually speed up the calendar to a more reasonable time frame? I don't think the country can handle two months of Lame Duck Liz.

I guess in the spirit of Truss, they're going to completely bungle the logistics of a leadership election by mixed messages and overpromising.

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Will she get resignation honours?

As an official PM - however short serving - she is surely entitled to them.

I hope so, just for the likely lolz if nothing else.

If I was her i would exclusively pick sitting MP's (including herself) to throw a grenade in the new ministry's way.

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Surprised that Coffey hasn't been ditched? She seemed like a certain one to be punted out a window.

Sharma removed from cabinet.

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The big issue with Braverman is she is one those politicians who believes that every day where she isn't in the news to be a personal failure - everything she does is calculated as "i hope I'm the front page of the mail and telegraph tomorrow"

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Thing is many people in the 80s didn't know coal miners, and you could reasonably come to the conclusion the strikers were some selfish people far away only interested in their parochial interests: everyone knows somebody working for the NHS or in some public service, and it's very hard to argue with them.

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There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.

Out of curiosity, did she ever compromise with any unions?

Not really a compromise, because the situation is complicated, but two unions - EETPU and the Union of Democratic Mineworkers - worked a lot behind the scenes with Thatcher, and they were presented as the moderate party to scargill's extremists. Iirc they also made seperate deals with unions that represented the more technical and managerial positions to isolate num itself.

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When I was working at a further skills college, my main job was effectively glorified English and Maths tutor: students needed to basically be dragged past the finishing line because they needed to get a few more grades while the college tried every means to assist them in the exam. I assume this would be the  result of Sunak's ideas.

Ultimately the issue is a lack of literacy: sometimes i think it would be best if most "subject" teachers in KS3 (11-14) started learning phonics. This is basically the thing that depresses me most about the profession: you really get a startling look at endemic illiteracy.

I think if you really want to target lack of maths skills, you need to look at the adult population: plenty of NEETS or "low skilled" workers out there that probably could have better maths results (whether GCSE or Advanced), but for whatever reason it's not really pushed even though you'd think that population would be more easily mobilised and would certainly be more motivated (and probably more financially viable as well).