UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Coffey is Health Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister as expected.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Cleverly is Foreign Secretary. I imagine the government will heavily rely on him for media rounds etc. A better communicator than most of the others getting top jobs.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Truss, incidentally, is still a republican if the 'kissing hands' photo is anything to go by.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The statement, particularly the 'concerned about her health' bit, sounds very similar to what is part of the official procedure when it's about to happen. When George VI was about to go, for example, something like that was said. It's also worth noting perhaps that the Palace doesn't usually speak in such tones regarding the health of the Queen or any senior Royals, as I think has been said on here.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The graphics on the BBC are quite ominous and there's a lack of "get well soon" or anything similar in the statements from various quarters.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Andrew, Anne and Edward are also heading to Balmoral.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Huw Edwards is now on the BBC in a black suit and tie.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Huw Edwards is now on the BBC in a black suit and tie.

I doubt the BBC knows more at the moment than we know. They just do this out of precaution.

Maybe not, but there is a written procedure IIRC with 'buzzwords' that are released in statements such as the one earlier in this sort of situation.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Harry and Meghan are heading there too.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Talking quite a lot about transitions etc on the BBC now.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Some people are noting that the Royal Standard (the flag flown wherever the Queen happens to be in residence) doesn't appear to be flying over Balmoral and is being mistaken for the Lion Rampant (the Royal Banner of Scotland).

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Some people are noting that the Royal Standard (the flag flown wherever the Queen happens to be in residence) doesn't appear to be flying over Balmoral and is being mistaken for the Lion Rampant (the Royal Banner of Scotland).

Charles is at Balmoral at the moment, right? If she died the monarch is still there.

It might be that both or one are somewhere else on the estate (which is quite vast) rather than in the Castle.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Liz Truss is a dreadful person to lead the UK through a moment like this (or potential).

Major, Blair, Cameron … hell even May and Johnson would be better. And of course Starmer could be

Not Johnson. And it's fairly clear that she would not have wanted that: it's an open secret that there hasn't been a PM as personally detested by Brenda and the rest of them as he was (and, bluntly, for several good reasons).

On the other hand, she liked Wilson in particular from what some have said.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

RIP

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

If you want to see what Boris Johnson would have said in an address to the nation if he had still been PM then, er, look at the tribute he's put out whilst not being PM.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

He's - and I say this as an observation not as a slur, very much not - very clearly on the spectrum.

I've heard that more about his father than him, but yes I can see it. The aimless walking around after he had shook hands with the crowd the day after his mother's death for one thing.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Meanwhile there are scores of Conservative MPs who are about as religious as Lenin's corpse who nevertheless always chose to be sworn in (and usually on the KJV) because it's what's done, old chap. Which is related to the main reason why Truss's Reading at the Queen's funeral was as amusingly poor as it was: she's not religious (even if she now, frankly pointlessly, claims to be vaguely Anglican. Who buys this? And why even bother?), did not have a religious background growing up and was not exposed to religion much at school and so, unsurprisingly, was entirely and obviously unfamiliar with both the verse she had to read and how you're supposed to read from the Bible. Mind you, most people in that position would have rehearsed like mad and made sure to check how you're supposed to do it, but she's arrogant even for a politician.

Here's a little experiment for everyone: Ask the voice assistant on the electronic device you're using to read out a verse from the Bible and compare it to Truss's reading. The voice assistant will sound more human and convincing. 

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

If there's a mood in the Tory Party after a defeat at the next election that's akin to that in 2001 (or indeed in Labour in 2015) then he could become leader. If he does keep his seat.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Boris Johnson returns as leader within a year as the voice of rationality and moderation. Calling it now.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Sterling is now less than 10% stronger than the US dollar.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

What would worry me if I was a Tory is that they have no one good on the airwaves to promote this?

They’re trying to reform the British state with a bunch of D list cabinet ministers and G list junior ministers.

Shapps or Gove (yes) would have been their best bets for that, but of course they aren't in the cabinet now.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Liz "George Canning" Truss?

https://twitter.com/Alan_McGuinness/status/1574323890272116739?s=20&t=FRIoCo...

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The government is actively humiliating itself so far. This isn't surprising given Truss's, ahem, preferences.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.

It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

Labour will get the fabled 20 point lead on the same day that the pound falls below the US dollar in value. A fun day on Twitter.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Is it significant that Truss hasn't been seen in days? It's easy to imagine Blair, Cameron and Johnson all over the airwaves during this kind of situation to provide spin.