UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Blair]

Boris still sounds quite bitter despite his booster heavy waffle

[Blair]

Coffey as Health makes sense imv- it’s a very important job with everything going on and she is competent, not ambitious and very close allies with Truss. It makes much more sense than say Chief Whip- I would have made her Home Secretary if I was Truss and imo she’s one of the few of this cabinet that merits a position in it, despite her many faults.

[Blair]

Cleverly falls into the Margaret Beckett category e.g foreign policy will be ran by the PM.

[Blair]

This was iirc briefed to the Eye back in March or April- that her health was worse than was being made public and that she was largely reduced to the formal necessary tasks as sovereign.

Will be the end of an era and I expect more emotional than a lot of people expect

[Blair]

The death of the monarch use to lead to a general election.

[Blair]

Liz Truss is a dreadful person to lead the UK through a moment like this (or potential).

Major, Blair, Cameron … hell even May and Johnson would be better. And of course Starmer could be

Not Johnson. And it's fairly clear that she would not have wanted that: it's an open secret that there hasn't been a PM as personally detested by Brenda and the rest of them as he was (and, bluntly, for several good reasons).

HM was a regular reader of political gossip to the extent that she use to get a Government whip to send her a daily summary of events in Parliament- who was up, who was down and who spoke well.

I take some joy in knowing that despite her constitutional role she would have watched those events with an arched eyebrow.

She has had an interesting relationship with PMs- the most powerful and presidential were generally the ones she disliked the most- Blair and Thatcher and ofc Bojo. All were in different ways decidedly against conserving the established way.

Her personal favourite was Harold Wilson.

[Blair]

I really don’t care about hearing from journalists opinions on how it’s being managed.

There is an awful tendency on social media for people to assert complete bullsh**t- I’ve seen someone say Prince Charles will address the nation. This is not the West Wing.

[Blair]

I also think with the way of the royal family now and how their profile has changed that it’s less likely for name changes bar a sudden set of deaths and upheaval (see the death of George V and the Abdication)

[Blair]

His speech is very Charles.

[Blair]

IDS turned down the role of Lord President too this week.

[Blair]

Even more hilarious when you consider what her views on Europe actually were…

[Blair]

Even more hilarious when you consider what her views on Europe actually were…

what were they?

Historically eurosceptic; she fell out with Heath over it in the 1970s but largely because she had what was then the Gaitskellite position of wanting to focus on the commonwealth rather than the EEC.

It was also briefed that she made pro leave remarks before 2016- I took it as true as neither the palace nor the Remainers tried to deny it- rather they said it was low politics for it to leak.

She was a great Francophile ofc though.

[Blair]

I hope after Charles had a very normal reaction to an exploding pen perhaps we look at a less daunting schedule for the next time this happens.

I know tradition, four nations etc but it would be a lot easier for the family if they weren’t made to go through this 5 day slog of sitting, standing and looking solemn.

They should be allowed some time alone to grieve before the very public funeral.

[Blair]

Yeah the fuss some are trying to make over the pen is ridiculous, if anything it humanises him.

Also very funny seeing people express shock- he has always been like this!

[Blair]

He's - and I say this as an observation not as a slur, very much not - very clearly on the spectrum.

I've heard that more about his father than him, but yes I can see it.

For entertainment value alone, I hope as King he turns out to have the mouth of his father.

That would be Anne who has that- although she might have got it from her aunt Margaret too.

[Blair]

It’s drifted past but has anyone noticed how bad some of the new ministerial teams are?

Education features a man who led a campaign against naughty stickers in phoneboxes with his junior ministers including an MP who gave the public the finger, another who went on a rant about dog leads and another who celebrated roe being repealed.

People are in ministerial jobs who weren’t even trusted by Boris.

[Blair]

Well yes but consider those of us who’d have to listen to his views on town planning!

[Blair]

The problem is that having public p political views very quickly devolves into the Monarch picking sides when a Government is being formulated- it’s worth remembering George V played a huge role in creating the National Government in the 1930s.

The powers we give to the Monarch are so vast- the ability to dissolve Parliament, dismiss Ministers, appoint virtually every senior official and command the armed forces, that we really don’t want them engaged in a political battle with the Government especially when 50% of the time it would be with a Labour Government.

[Blair]

Government getting really hammered over fracking by Conservative MPs in Parliament.

The first intervention from Mark Menzies was extremely hostile especially for a new Government.

What an absolutely barmy idea but this is what happens if you let you let the IEA run the Government.

Now being reported they might use some way of completely by-passing any local opposition- lol.

[Blair]

It’s been a long running demand and idea within most of the party but I doubt anyway expects it to happen- the lords ofc has the benefit now of being an anti Tory body so there’s a lot less anger.

My own deeply weird proposal would be to make it 50% elected by regional PR and 50% appointed, with half of that being cross benchers.

The main thing they could do is cut the numbers- currently only the Chinese congress has more members. 

[Blair]

Boris Johnson was never fully a part of the very right wing IEA/Adam Smith set- they have now got everything they broadly want and have no real excuse if it all falls apart.

The plan seems based around the idea that there will be huge levels of growth and well the market reaction today shows that things could collapse very quickly.

Didn’t Ted Heath try this in the 1970s and then have to retreat massively?

[Blair]

What would worry me if I was a Tory is that they have no one good on the airwaves to promote this?

They’re trying to reform the British state with a bunch of D list cabinet ministers and G list junior ministers.

[Blair]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.

I think the Lords can’t vote on budget resolutions thanks to some quirk from the Lloyd George era

[Blair]

It is quite a skill to produce a budget that is both politically unpopular and which crashes the markets- which stops your supporters from arguing it was actually alright.

Also worth noting no-one is talking about the energy bills support- this is why this stupid west wing ‘4 policies in 4 days’ blitz was made.

Boris Johnson was never fully a part of the very right wing IEA/Adam Smith set- they have now got everything they broadly want and have no real excuse if it all falls apart.

The plan seems based around the idea that there will be huge levels of growth and well the market reaction today shows that things could collapse very quickly.

Didn’t Ted Heath try this in the 1970s and then have to retreat massively?

Wonder how long till the retreat.

[Blair]

The funny thing about party unity is that sudden and brutal acts of fighting can sometimes lead to much greater stability; TIG forming in 2019, Boris kicking the anti no-deal Tory MPs out etc.

But there is a very dangerous situation where you can’t get the genie back in the bottle and all people know how to do is to brief and panic and plot; it is imho what would have happened if Brown was deposed in 2009.

It seems we’re in the latter…