UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

All the reports say Truss and Coffey are great friends - which is why her allegedly being sent to  Health is so odd. It’s such an exhausting job, with no easy wins, and an easy way to become one of the least popular members of government.

I guess Coffey has avoided controversy at W&P, (which is no easy feat) so she might just be seen as a safe pair of hands. But having a Deputy PM, who’s in charge of shepherding the NHS through a very tough winter just feels like the government is setting itself up for Labour attack lines - especially if she has to stand in at PMQs at any point in the next six months. 

[Torrain]

Chancellor Kwartang it is then.

Trivia note - he’ll be the second Chancellor in British history to hold a PhD. The first was Gordon Brown.

[Torrain]

In a turn of events that will surprise no one, Ben Wallace is sticking around at MOD. Man has some of the best job-security in politics right now.

Also, Zahawi has been given Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, so I imagine we’ll see a lot of him defending the Truss government’s record (both on TV and in the Commons).

Making Penny Mordaunt Leader of the House feels a bit patronising - quite a downgrade from her cabinet roles under May, but it’s definitely a step up compared to her roles under Johnson.

Appointing Jake Berry as Party Chairman feels like either a savvy move, or an attempt to look like you’re making a savvy move. Either way, given his leadership of the Northern Research Group, and advocacy for the Red Wall, it looks like a statement of electoral intent.

[Torrain]

Michelle Donelan has been made Culture Secretary. Guess she’ll get to be in the Cabinet for more than 24 hours after all! She’s got to be one of the unquestioned upgrades because, after Dorries, the only way is up.

[Torrain]

This might be embarrassing for the new PM.
https://twitter.com/itvcalendar/status/1567102473826885637

I think in a list of embarrassing things that could come out about Liz Truss, that's pretty low down.

Aye - I mean, we live in a world where this Daily Mail photoshoot exists:

And that's something she signed off on. If any of the rumours floating around about interdepartmental discussions are true, the Mirror and Guardian are going to be printing a salacious headline or two in the next couple of years.

[Torrain]

...someone who left the Lib Dems because they weren't approved as a candidate fast enough.

Oh is that why she defected when she did? I had always wondered what on Earth was behind that: not many people joined the Conservative Party after being a member of a different party in 1996 of all years!

The story as I heard it was that the panel told her to make a few improvements and come back, and shortly afterwards she left. Not impossible she could've ended up MP for Leeds North West and (completely ignoring all the other changes it would have caused) in the place of Jo Swinson come 2019, thinking about it.

That’s a fascinating hypothetical - wonder how she would have done in the 2017 election, and if she survived that, 2019. Would she have warmed to the coalition? Or attacked if from the left?

Would she have been the natural Swinson replacement, or accepted a ministerial role in the coalition, and been turfed out when the Lib Dems imploded?

[Torrain]

Buckingham Palace have released this statement to the press:

Following further evaluation this morning, The Queen’s doctors are concerned for Her Majesty’s health and have recommended she remain under medical supervision.

The Queen remains comfortable and at Balmoral.

Edit: Clarence House have also announced that Charles, Camilla and William are en-route to Balmoral.

[Torrain]

Yeah - they didn’t even confirm she had COVID for a couple of days, if I remember correctly. It’s the sort of statement you only release as a pre-amble to a significant development.

The BBC News operation seems to be bracing for an announcement. The sign language interpreter is in all black. The presenters are still wearing coloured ties, but the male presenters are in matching black suit jackets. They’re mostly running stock footage from the Jubilee, but the background shots of the studio are far busier than is typical at this time of day.

[Torrain]

It’s also worth noting that notes were passed to the PM, Labour frontbench, and SNP leader in the middle of parliamentary debate, and all three party leaders seem to have vacated the chamber within a number of minutes - right as Hoyle took over to make his well-wishing statement.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1567919002021675009
Context - these are the chief political correspondents for the Times, and the Sun.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1567945702818418691

[Torrain]

I’ve not tended to find Charles much of an impressive figure in the past, but I thought he (and the Palace team) did an admirable job, broadly hitting the right notes in his speech. It was certainly more emotional than the speeches QE2 gave, but it fit the mood.

I mean, he led off with a tribute to QE2, reiterated the importance of service and the Commonwealth, and then implied he’d do his best to step back from political advocacy (which will assuage some concerns).

Refusing to wait the traditional period, and just naming William as Prince of Wales now gets rid of a lot of pointless media speculation, and helps reinforce the transition (it certainly gave me slight vertigo for a moment). Seems like a good call.

Explicitly celebrating Harry and Meghan feels like the best way to avoid those circumstances getting another round of speculation (“King snubs Harry by leaving him out of first speech!” is a headline they did well to avoid).

He does kinda talk about Camilla like she’s going to be our fun new stepmother, but that’s just a longstanding Charles thing.

[Torrain]

The Privy Council has been an interesting assembly so far - fascinating to see Starmer, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and Johnson standing at the head of a crowd of politicians, with a sea of familiar Cabinet faces hovering in the background, in addition to Lib Dem and SNP grandees.

Penny Mordaunt is chairing events. Truss made her Leader of the Commons and Lord President of the (Privy) Council on Tuesday, which are pretty low-key jobs in normal times (the kind of thing you give to Andrea Leadsom or Rees-Mogg). And yet by Saturday, she’s MC for a number of constitutional ceremonies, as part of the succession, and by dint of being appointed Lord President (which is normally just a sinecure given to an MP so they have the right to attend Cabinet).

[Torrain]

The Privy Council has been an interesting assembly so far - fascinating to see Starmer, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and Johnson standing at the head of a crowd of politicians, with a sea of familiar Cabinet faces hovering in the background, in addition to Lib Dem and SNP grandees.

And Nicola Sturgeon as well.

Aye - she’s got a more important role, as one of the co-signatories for the documents relating to the accession in Scotland  the First Minister holds some constitutional power, possibly from holding the Great Seal of Scotland, in addition to their elected responsibilities laid out by the devolution legislation - but I can’t find the exact basis for it).

[Torrain]

Deep down, Rees-Mogg is kicking himself.

Oh definitely - I must say, I’m glad he’s out of that office.

[Torrain]

IDS turned down the role of Lord President too this week.

He was in the room as one of the invited Privy Councillors though. Watching it all go down, I wonder whether he felt relieved or regretful he turned it down. Probably for the best - he's never been one to command a room in moments like this.

Oddly, IDS feels like one of the most apt comparisons for Truss under current conditions - darling of the Right, more popular with the party membership than MPs, and trying to make themselves heard in an environment dominated by louder voices.

[Torrain]

IDS turned down the role of Lord President too this week.

He was in the room as one of the invited Privy Councillors though. Watching it all go down, I wonder whether he felt relieved or regretful he turned it down. Probably for the best - he's never been one to command a room in moments like this.

Oddly, IDS feels like one of the most apt comparisons for Truss under current conditions - darling of the Right, more popular with the party membership than MPs, and trying to make themselves heard in an environment dominated by louder voices.

His victory in 2001 over Clarke was announced two days after Sept 11.

Now, *that's* unlucky timing.

Seriously? Man, that’s on a different level of misfortune.
The guy never stood a chance…

[Torrain]

What’s you guys’ sense for conference season this year? The Lib Dems literally scheduled theirs for the date of the funeral, so it was always going to get canned, but the other parties haven’t discussed it yet (probably still too early to discuss without tabloids moaning about “playing politics”).

In theory, this is the opportunity for all the big players to make political hay - Starmer trying to define Truss before she can define herself, while bigging up his “Labour can be patriotic too” thing - I’m expecting a lot of flags. Truss has been denied her honeymoon, and can’t even tout her energy policy right now. The SNP have a theoretical referendum to start defining (quite possibly with a Supreme Court outcome to either bemoan or celebrate), which seems like something that would be telegraphed heavily at the October conference.

But the mood is still so weird, that it will be slightly jarring to go from the funeral to party-political fervour within a week. Part of me thinks that it might all still get reduced in scope, and there’s a chance conferences gets cancelled altogether if focus-groups/polling makes them jumpy about diving right back into adversarial politics etc etc.

[Torrain]

Again, there's nothing but long-standing convention keeping King Charles from expressing his political opinions. The guy pays all the taxes he's legally required to, why shouldn't he express his opinions on subjects he cares about?

Filuwaúrdjan has already made the point, but remember, we unironically subscribe to the following maxim:

The real Constitution was the friends conventions we made along the way.

[Torrain]

The situation in Leicester seems reminiscent of Glasgow, with the sectarian angle to key sporting fixtures, and the associated marching. Not to bring everything back to Scotland - but we do seem to have a fair bit of experience with performative sectarianism, mirroring our neighbours in Belfast. 

[Torrain]

I'm report-writing from home this week, so put BBC Parliament on in the background during the swearing-in. Fairly diverse, at least compared to some of our neighbours. Lots of Welsh, .

Fairly diverse set of religious texts for the swearing-in (alongside the ever-popular non-religious affirmation). So far we've had the King James Bible, the Qur'an, the Bhagavad Gita, the Book of Mormon, the Jerusalem Bible (includes the Apocrypha), a Welsh Bible, and an Old Testament.

We've still got some sectarian issues in this country, but I'm glad that there's no MTG-type in Parliament taking umbrage with the diversity of belief, non-belief, and holy texts on display.

MP-specific anecdotes:

• Chris Bryant was cracking very niche jokes about the specific biblical translations available, which seems on brand.
• Tim Farron, also very on brand, takes the non-religious affirmation, quoting Matthew 5:37 ("let your yes be yes, and your no be no...") as his explanation.
• Jim Shannon (DUP) snuck in some Ulster Scots, the only MP to do so
• Naz Shah continued her personal tradition of wearing hijab to the swearing in (she doesn't in day-to-day life), reasoning that taking the oath is an act of prayer, and she would always wear a headscarf for that. Which is an interesting theological point I hadn't considered.

[Torrain]

MP-specific anecdotes:

• Chris Bryant was cracking very niche jokes about the specific biblical translations available, which seems on brand.
• Tim Farron, also very on brand, takes the non-religious affirmation, quoting Matthew 5:37 ("let your yes be yes, and your no be no...") as his explanation.
• Jim Shannon (DUP) snuck in some Ulster Scots, the only MP to do so
• Naz Shah continued her personal tradition of wearing hijab to the swearing in (she doesn't in day-to-day life), reasoning that taking the oath is an act of prayer, and she would always wear a headscarf for that. Which is an interesting theological point I hadn't considered.

Ooh, any video available? BBC iPlayer won't work for me.

It should be archived here:
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/63823429-3bd9-451d-ba01-0edab6a28887

If that’s also region-locked to the UK, then I’m not sure where to go. It might end up on the UK Parliament YouTube channel in a week or two.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1573018690638987267?s=21&t=sZXljWcP7a0Bh7yJIpkFzw

Good idea, but that would first require creating regional governments with meaningful powers in England.

They’ve got a skeleton to build on with the mayoral system, but a more federal approach, with parliaments in Yorkshire, Cornwall etc would be far better, and in line with the second chamber suggested in the report.

[Torrain]

Step 1: Be Liz Truss
Step 2: See Labour are tilting towards the centre-ground
Step 3: Cede the centre-ground, with a sharp-right turn on taxation and benefits
Step 4: Be 5-10 points behind in the polls
Step 5: …
Step 6: Profit???

[Torrain]

It’s probably not the moment to get into the weeds on this - but I can’t imagine the House of Lords is going to be enthusiastic about Trussenomics, when it comes time to vote on this (whether that’s this package, or a full budget at a later date).

They’re not bound by the Salisbury Convention (where the Lords let most of a party’s manifesto promises pass into law without much argument), as this is basically a 180 from the  Johnson approach, and outside his 2019 platform.

They’re not exactly going to be able to block it - but I wonder whether they might become the thorn in the PM’s side, and slow-walk it.