🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #125 on: March 16, 2023, 11:25:02 AM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.
I wouldn’t really consider this a climate change issue. The government is trying to limit nitrogen because of its pollution of the Dutch environment. This is worse than pretty much any other European country, and the courts ultimately forced them into acting or seeing significant restrictions imposed anyways. It probably helps that the Netherlands has a very low electoral threshold to get your foot in the door, and the breakdown of the traditional political system and associated voter loyalty means a new party can quickly breakthrough to ‘major’ party status. And to be fair other countries do see some parties fairly focused on farming/rural interests eg; the Center parties in most of Scandinavia or the Denmark Democrats in Denmark. The party that would traditionally represent many farmers/rural voters in the Netherlands, the CDA, is currently in government imposing unpopular policies on them so it helps spur these voters into looking elsewhere for something new and more radical.
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Logical
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« Reply #126 on: March 16, 2023, 11:29:54 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 12:40:48 PM by Logical »

Some of my own observations
-Despite little media attention, Volt had a surprisingly good night. Had they stood in Friesland, Limburg, Zeeland and Flevoland they could've won enough for 3 senate seats.
-Traditionally left wing rurals aren't immune to the rural BBB wave
-BVNL (yet another FvD splinter) failed to win any provincial seat, but did well enough nationally to win a seat in a general election.
-In Western Netherlands, CDA held up better, losing just a quarter of their votes, in the catholic South they lost half of their vote but in Eastern rural municipalities along the German border they up to three quarters of their vote.
-SP and PVV continue their slow decline into testimonial parties
-CU had an awful election for a party with a solid base. Maintaining the current course could erode their base even further.
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DL
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« Reply #127 on: March 16, 2023, 01:52:55 PM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.
I wouldn’t really consider this a climate change issue. The government is trying to limit nitrogen because of its pollution of the Dutch environment. This is worse than pretty much any other European country, and the courts ultimately forced them into acting or seeing significant restrictions imposed anyways. It probably helps that the Netherlands has a very low electoral threshold to get your foot in the door, and the breakdown of the traditional political system and associated voter loyalty means a new party can quickly breakthrough to ‘major’ party status. And to be fair other countries do see some parties fairly focused on farming/rural interests eg; the Center parties in most of Scandinavia or the Denmark Democrats in Denmark. The party that would traditionally represent many farmers/rural voters in the Netherlands, the CDA, is currently in government imposing unpopular policies on them so it helps spur these voters into looking elsewhere for something new and more radical.

I'm aware of the agrarian parties in Scandinavia such as the Centre parties in Sweden and Finland and Norway, but they are nothing like BBB. They are very middle of the road parties that have often been quite good on environmental issues.
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Cassius
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« Reply #128 on: March 16, 2023, 02:01:43 PM »

Given the extreme crowding on the ‘anti-government right’ segment of the Dutch political scene, what exactly is the remaining base of the PVV (in the polls for the next election I see that they’re still expected to get into the teens seats wise)?
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #129 on: March 16, 2023, 02:23:01 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 02:26:17 PM by Senator Laki »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

Low electoral threshold and at large lists, and less party financing than elsewhere.

Belgium has a high electoral threshold (and for local / regionalized lists), meaning you need to get proportionally higher percentage of votes in each region to get a seat. The financing for parties is much higher meaning it is harder to make a breakthrough.

Simply said, the system in the Netherlands is much more friendly for new parties to have an electoral breaktrough given the democracy is more direct.

The system can be called hyperproportional, for example the USA has 2 major parties but has virtually no proportional electoral process, but winner takes it all system (exc for presidential primaries).

This leads to a political culture where a vote for a different party isn't necessarily a wasted vote, meaning people are more open to vote for minor parties.

BBB had some visibility due to winning 1 seat last time in parliamentary elections. The person elected made good use of that seat in the nitrogen debate, meaning she got a lot of visibility for only having 1 seat, increasing name recognition etc.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #130 on: March 16, 2023, 07:20:36 PM »

Yeah got to agree with Laki here, for me what makes the Netherlands so unique is the accessibility of democratic spaces compared to other "democratic" countries such as Belgium, which is a very rigid partiocracy with lots of "vote banks" and where mainstream media invites the same card carrying establishment parties to debate over asinine issues. The Netherlands has a more permeable political system as such.

As I was alluding to in my previous post, all you need to do to crack the Dutch system is have a successful surge is media attention and the cleavage will form itself. People were discussing the farmers protests regardless of geographic location. The upside down flags were something us Belgians knew about. It was bound to be a big cleavage issue.

Anyway it will be interesting to see how Baudet copes with cocaine withdrawal symptoms.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #131 on: March 16, 2023, 07:21:27 PM »

Of course us Belgians tend to be wrong and slow so feel free to ignore the above posts.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #132 on: March 17, 2023, 07:57:24 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2023, 12:40:20 PM by DavidB. »

Map of biggest party by province in all PS elections since 1995. Utrecht "flipped" after counting Veenendaal - BBB is now the biggest party in all provinces. Of course, being the biggest party is only of relative importance in the Netherlands, with all its fragmentation. Still, I think it provides a striking view of the magnitude of BBB's victory:



For the Senate, it seems unsure whether the coalition + GL/PvdA manage to reach a majority together after all, as BBB's stock was apparently undervalued. It will also depend on the agreements parties strike to vote for each other - last time, an FVD member voted SGP to ensure a second SGP seat, and the plan succeeded. Votes from abroad still have to come in too, which will probably help the coalition. BBB and PVV did not even participate there (very big mistake, can flip a seat).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #133 on: March 17, 2023, 08:09:04 AM »

Given the extreme crowding on the ‘anti-government right’ segment of the Dutch political scene, what exactly is the remaining base of the PVV (in the polls for the next election I see that they’re still expected to get into the teens seats wise)?
Middle-aged (and slightly older) working class people in the periphery, including peripheral towns and suburbs in the West. BBB voters are less angry and probably rather diverse in terms of political views to begin with (will be interesting how they will deal with that, having borrowed voters from both the hard nationalist right and the center).

The JA21 electorate is more highly educated than PVV electorate, consists more of men than of women, and they more often live in Zuid-Holland and Noord-Holland; specifically the "A4-A7" corridor from Rotterdam to Amsterdam and up to the north of Noord-Holland. It is notable that the JA21 map looks very much like the FVD map last time, but of course the support level is lower - JA21 probably took the more highly educated and more affluent support. They are also very weak in the North and East. Also notable that they did better than the PVV in many municipalities in Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland but worse than FVD in much of the North.

For FVD, the picture is a little blurry; their numbers are quite similar throughout the entire country (a little better in Noord-Holland). Nowhere did they do well, but nowhere did they drop below 1% or so. I'd be interested in seeing more stats about their voters.  They performed at about 50% of the result in the parliamentary election of 2021 (when they got 8 seats), which is quite bad. The drop seems bigger outside the West.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #134 on: March 17, 2023, 03:02:17 PM »

Some recent developments:

- PM Rutte said they government will listen to the "scream" of the voters (not sure this is a good or respectful way to frame it...) and will think of the consequences in terms of policy. Behind the scenes, the Ministry for Agriculture is already preparing a proposal to pacify BBB. Scrapping the proposed tightening of the nitrogen reduction deadline from 2035 to 2030 is a prominent feature in this regard. VVD, CDA and CU would be ready to drop the tightening of this target. Van der Plas also demands no forced buyouts and an increase of the nitrogen emissions cap in the law. The latter demand would probably be subject to new lawsuits.

- On election night, Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal (VVD) gave a bit of a tactless interview in which she says nitrogen policy has to continue as planned because there is no choice. She said it was already known many people were opposed to the policy, but if we want our economy to stay open and housing construction to continue we have to do this. In De Telegraaf, an anonymous CDA MP remarked that they thought: "Shut the f**k up" when Van der Wal said all of this. Green and left commentators, on the other hand, lauded Van der Wal's comments.

- BBB asked MP Chris Stoffer (SGP) to investigate possible avenues for coalition formation in the province of Friesland. The SGP itself did not win any seats in Friesland. The local PvdA leader said it is positive he has experience and she wouldn't object to it.

And some thoughts about provincial coalition building:

- BBB's victory will make provincial coalition formation a nightmare. This is not like 2019, where FVD's victory was impressive/shocking (depending on political POV) and surprising but the magnitude was fairly limited. Now, the numbers game is fundamentally different. In many provinces, sidelining BBB, FVD, PVV and JA21 requires absurd coalitions to be formed, consisting of basically all other parties. This won't be feasible.

Take Flevoland, where BBB got 20.8% of the vote and 10 out of 41 seats - close to its national average and by no means the most pro-BBB province. Not that crazy. But BBB, PVV, FVD and JA21 already have 17 seats combined. VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL and PvdA have only 16 combined. Even adding the SP and the PvdD (quite a lot of an ideological stretch...) only takes you to 20, 1 short of a majority. Where to go next? 50Plus and a local party both have one. But it's difficult to see how this would work - and how voters wouldn't punish this behavior. In many provinces, the picture is similar or even more favorable to BBB. I expect establishment parties to form anti-BBB coalitions in some provinces (Utrecht, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland are the most obvious options - in that order), but in most provinces this simply won't be an option - BBB will be "incontournable", as the French say, mostly because excluding BBB means excluding PVV/FVD/(almost definitely) JA21 too.

Playing with the coalition builder in every province and looking at the different provincial results is possible here.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #135 on: March 17, 2023, 03:19:38 PM »

Some recent developments:

- PM Rutte said they government will listen to the "scream" of the voters (not sure this is a good or respectful way to frame it...) and will think of the consequences in terms of policy. Behind the scenes, the Ministry for Agriculture is already preparing a proposal to pacify BBB. Scrapping the proposed tightening of the nitrogen reduction deadline from 2035 to 2030 is a prominent feature in this regard. VVD, CDA and CU would be ready to drop the tightening of this target. Van der Plas also demands no forced buyouts and an increase of the nitrogen emissions cap in the law. The latter demand would probably be subject to new lawsuits.

- On election night, Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal (VVD) gave a bit of a tactless interview in which she says nitrogen policy has to continue as planned because there is no choice. She said it was already known many people were opposed to the policy, but if we want our economy to stay open and housing construction to continue we have to do this. In De Telegraaf, an anonymous CDA MP remarked that they thought: "Shut the f**k up" when Van der Wal said all of this. Green and left commentators, on the other hand, lauded Van der Wal's comments.

- BBB asked MP Chris Stoffer (SGP) to investigate possible avenues for coalition formation in the province of Friesland. The SGP itself did not win any seats in Friesland. The local PvdA leader said it is positive he has experience and she wouldn't object to it.

And some thoughts about provincial coalition building:

- BBB's victory will make provincial coalition formation a nightmare. This is not like 2019, where FVD's victory was impressive/shocking (depending on political POV) and surprising but the magnitude was fairly limited. Now, the numbers game is fundamentally different. In many provinces, sidelining BBB, FVD, PVV and JA21 requires absurd coalitions to be formed, consisting of basically all other parties. This won't be feasible.

Take Flevoland, where BBB got 20.8% of the vote and 10 out of 41 seats - close to its national average and by no means the most pro-BBB province. Not that crazy. But BBB, PVV, FVD and JA21 already have 17 seats combined. VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL and PvdA have only 16 combined. Even adding the SP and the PvdD (quite a lot of an ideological stretch...) only takes you to 20, 1 short of a majority. Where to go next? 50Plus and a local party both have one. But it's difficult to see how this would work - and how voters wouldn't punish this behavior. In many provinces, the picture is similar or even more favorable to BBB. I expect establishment parties to form anti-BBB coalitions in some provinces (Utrecht, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland are the most obvious options - in that order), but in most provinces this simply won't be an option - BBB will be "incontournable", as the French say, mostly because excluding BBB means excluding PVV/FVD/(almost definitely) JA21 too.

Playing with the coalition builder in every province and looking at the different provincial results is possible here.

For years I have observed Rutte push voters from one Pro-Rutte party to another Pro-Rutte party, so I expected that Rutte would stay until he ran out of pro-Rutte parties to push disappointed voters into.

So it's poetic justice that he runs out of centrist parties to eat.
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« Reply #136 on: March 18, 2023, 06:06:28 AM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

The nature and scale of these nitrogen cuts, and the way they were handled (imposed by a court) is  relatively unique to. The Netherlands.
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jeron
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« Reply #137 on: March 18, 2023, 09:50:21 AM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

The nature and scale of these nitrogen cuts, and the way they were handled (imposed by a court) is  relatively unique to. The Netherlands.

The cuts were not imposed by the court. The previous system was ruled unlawful by a court. That system was criticized when it was implemented because it was deemed to be unlawful by lawyers.
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #138 on: March 18, 2023, 05:14:13 PM »

At the national level, the right has managed 38.6% of the vote. The Rutte coalition has managed a whopping 28.0%. The left has managed 29.7%. More than a third of Rutte voters have deserted their parties. Clearly, Rutte's centrism has lost some appeal with voters.

There are four basic coalitions which can be examined.

1: A purely right coalition, encompassing BBB, PVV, JA21, FvD, SGP, and maybe 50+.

2: A center-right coalition, encompassing the three tractable conservative parties (BBB, JA21, and SGP), and the three vaguely conservative Rutte parties (VVD, CU, CDA).

3: A center-left coalition, encompassing the 4 Rutte Parties and the three tractable leftist parties (PvdA, GL, and Volt). This is unwise from an electoral perspective for VVD and CDA, who need conservative voters, but there will be some inclination to these over the center-right when the math works out.

4: A purely left coalition, encompassing every party left of Rutte (PvdA, PvdD, SP, GL, Volt), and the two Rutte parties which seem at all willing (CU and D66).

At the national level, the right has managed 38.6% of the vote. The Rutte coalition has managed a whopping 28.0%. The left has managed 29.7%. More than a third of Rutte voters have deserted these parties.

In Drenthe, 22 seats are needed. The center-right has 27. The right has 21, with 1 seat held by a seemingly conservative regional party. Center-right or right.

In Flevoland, 21 seats are needed. The center-right has 22. The right has 20, with 1 seat held by a seemingly conservative regional party. Center-right or right.

In Friesland, 22 seats are needed. The center-right has 24. The right & center-left have 18 seats, with 5 seats held by vaguely centrist regional parties. Center-right almost certainly, but there exists the possibility of a right or center-left government.

In Gelderland, 28 seats are needed. The center-right has 32, while the center-left has 28. Either coalition is possible, so it depends on what the Rutte parties prefer.

In Groningen, 22 seats are needed. The center-left and left coalitions have 20, and the center-right has 19. 4 seats are held by regionalist parties, which seem to be generally center-right in nature. I anticipate a center-right government, since the regionalist parties should be unwilling to work with the left-wing parties on the nitrogen issue.

In Limburg, 24 seats are needed. The center-right has 22 seats, with 2 seats going to a regionalist party. I anticipate a center-right government.

In North Brabant, 28 seats are needed. The center-left has 27 seats, with 27 seats going to the center-right and 2 seats to a centrist regional party. Either coalition is possible, so it depends on what the Rutte parties prefer.

In North Holland, 28 seats are needed. The center-left has 30 seats, and is the only viable coalition.

In Overjissel, 24 seats are needed. The center-right has 31 seats, and the right falls narrowly short of plausibility with 23 seats.

In South Holland, 28 seats are needed. The center-left has 29 seats, and the center-right has 28. Either coalition is possible, so it depends on what the Rutte parties prefer.

In Utrecht, 25 seats are needed. The center-left has 30 seats,  while the center-right & the left have 24 seats. A center-left government seems to be the most plausible outcome.

In Zeeland, 20 seats are needed. The center-right has 25 seats, and is the only plausible government.

Of the 12 Provincial governments, I would forecast as follows
Right or Center-Right: 2
Center-Right: 5
Center-Right or Center-Left: 3
Center-Left: 2

Thus BBB should be in the government of between 7 and 10 provinces. The Rutte parties, by dint of centrism, should be in government in at least 10 provinces, and I would guess they will be in the government of all 12.

There can be no practical cordon sanitaire of the right in 7 of 12 provinces. Whether they like it or not, Rutte's coalition must come to terms with the right in order for a government to form in many provinces.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #139 on: March 18, 2023, 06:48:11 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2023, 06:52:52 PM by DavidB. »

I appreciate the work in the above analysis, and the numerical game really matters, and the above prediction will probably be sort of correct in many cases simply because of the maths. However, the above analysis ignores local factors: for instance, the extent to which the provincial VVD/CDA are supportive of the national government's nitrogen policy (which can be counterintuitive - for instance, Noord-Brabant is an agricultural powerhouse but Noord-Brabant's VVD is one of the "greenest"). It also ignores issues which aren't related to nitrogen - I guess this is where the term "political culture", which I normally don't tend to use because it's so vague, starts to matter too (for instance: Limburg is likely to have another "extraparliamentary" government, without a big coalition agreement, since most parties were satisfied with the way this promoted dualism and transparency last term - but due to the numbers game, policy will absolutely have a right-wing signature). It ignores the fact that VVD/CDA on the one hand and D66 on the other hand have very real differences among them and will not necessarily see each others as allies provincially everywhere. And it ignores potential cooperation of left-wing parties (PvdA, perhaps SP) with BBB (I wouldn't rule this out in the North and the East). Much of my criticism of the above boils down to the fact that in the Netherlands, the three "blocs" are a useful unit of analysis to look at voter movements and to restore some order to the madness of the 20 parties we have, but they are not formal or informal electoral blocs like we (used to) see in Scandinavia.

Provinces have a tradition of oversized governments which aren't too ideologically left or right in nature but consist of the biggest parties (but not too many of them). Only recently, due to massive fragmentation, have majorities become more narrow, while at the same time a much larger number of parties has been needed in some cases. Any purely "right" coalitions aren't going to happen anyway. The possibility greatly strengthens BBB's position, but they will never enter a government with only FVD/PVV/JA21.

In the end it's difficult to predict in which coalitions BBB will take part. I suspect much will depend on the leeway the national government will provide - and on whether we will even have a national government by then.
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #140 on: March 18, 2023, 06:57:58 PM »

I appreciate the work in the above analysis, and the numerical game really matters, and the above prediction will probably be sort of correct in many cases simply because of the maths. However, the above analysis ignores local factors: for instance, the extent to which the provincial VVD/CDA are supportive of the national government's nitrogen policy (which can be counterintuitive - for instance, Noord-Brabant is an agricultural powerhouse but Noord-Brabant's VVD is one of the "greenest"). It also ignores issues which aren't related to nitrogen - I guess this is where the term "political culture", which I normally don't tend to use because it's so vague, starts to matter too (for instance: Limburg is likely to have another "extraparliamentary" government, without a big coalition agreement, since most parties were satisfied with the way this promoted dualism and transparency last term - but due to the numbers game, policy will absolutely have a right-wing signature). It ignores the fact that VVD/CDA on the one hand and D66 on the other hand have very real differences among them and will not necessarily see each others as allies provincially everywhere. And it ignores potential cooperation of left-wing parties (PvdA, perhaps SP) with BBB (I wouldn't rule this out in the North and the East). Much of my criticism of the above boils down to the fact that in the Netherlands, the three "blocs" are a useful unit of analysis to look at voter movements and to restore some order to the madness of the 20 parties we have, but they are not formal or informal electoral blocs like we (used to) see in Scandinavia.

Provinces have a tradition of oversized governments which aren't too ideologically left or right in nature but consist of the biggest parties (but not too many of them). Only recently, due to massive fragmentation, have majorities become more narrow, while at the same time a much larger number of parties has been needed in some cases. Any purely "right" coalitions aren't going to happen anyway. The possibility greatly strengthens BBB's position, but they will never enter a government with only FVD/PVV/JA21.

In the end it's difficult to predict in which coalitions BBB will take part. I suspect much will depend on the leeway the national government will provide - and on whether we will even have a national government by then.

Absolutely. There are a lot of local factors that I'm ignoring for this, but the general strength of BBB, combined with the seats held by unworkable right-wing and left-wing parties, nearly guarantees BBB (and probably JA21) entry into the governments of many provinces.

I will say that a PvdA-BBB coalition seems tough to imagine. BBB isn't technically a single issue party, but their voters are overwhelmingly opposed to the nitrogen party. Do you really think provincial PvdA parties would compromise that plank?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #141 on: March 18, 2023, 07:11:54 PM »

I don't think it's impossible in places like Friesland, Drenthe or Overijssel, where the PvdA isn't dominated by people from big cities and consists of people more understanding of the situation of farmers and more eager to strike a compromise. The PvdA aren't in the national government either, so provincial branches will in practice have quite a bit of autonomy. Ultimately, in many cases, CDA/VVD will have to decide between forming incoherent coalitions of 6-8 parties and risking even more popular anger, or biting the bullet and striking some sort of compromise with BBB. If they do the latter, I won't rule out PvdA/CU joining such coalitions in rural provinces. (The effect this would have on GL-PvdA merger plans, however, would be interesting...) Also remember the PvdA in Overijssel were really close to entering a coalition with FVD last time, until the national leadership interfered.

All of this reminds me of the previous coalition in the municipality of Barendrecht, where local party EVB held 14 out of 29 seats and all six other parties (VVD, PvdA, D66, CDA, CU/SGP, GL) on the council formed a coalition consisting of 15 seats. In the following election, EVB crushed the coalition won an absolute majority of 20 out of 29 seats. This is the type of scenario establishment parties will want to avoid.
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« Reply #142 on: March 18, 2023, 07:56:58 PM »

I don't think it's impossible in places like Friesland, Drenthe or Overijssel, where the PvdA isn't dominated by people from big cities and consists of people more understanding of the situation of farmers and more eager to strike a compromise. The PvdA aren't in the national government either, so provincial branches will in practice have quite a bit of autonomy. Ultimately, in many cases, CDA/VVD will have to decide between forming incoherent coalitions of 6-8 parties and risking even more popular anger, or biting the bullet and striking some sort of compromise with BBB. If they do the latter, I won't rule out PvdA/CU joining such coalitions in rural provinces. (The effect this would have on GL-PvdA merger plans, however, would be interesting...) Also remember the PvdA in Overijssel were really close to entering a coalition with FVD last time, until the national leadership interfered.

All of this reminds me of the previous coalition in the municipality of Barendrecht, where local party EVB held 14 out of 29 seats and all six other parties (VVD, PvdA, D66, CDA, CU/SGP, GL) on the council formed a coalition consisting of 15 seats. In the following election, EVB crushed the coalition won an absolute majority of 20 out of 29 seats. This is the type of scenario establishment parties will want to avoid.
That the national leadership interfered against coalitions with FvD is evidence that coalitions with BBB might arouse some controversy, is it not? Of course BBB is not FvD, but the FvD of 2019 was a substantially more moderate party.

Refusing to work with BBB would be electorally bad for every party on the right, but I doubt that D66/CU/SP would suffer all that much. If PvdD or GL worked with BBB they'd immediately lose most of their voters.

Also, PvdA isn't that electorally powerful. Drenthe is the only province where BBB+PvdA would be close to a majority. JA21 has a better reputation than the other conservative parties, but this is because their national liberalism overlaps with the right-liberalism of VVD. Adding them to a BBB+PvdA coalition would be awkward. FvD and PVV are unworkable for any self-respecting party of the left. SGP could perhaps join such a coalition. Still, the math is rather awkward. VVD and CDA will probably be more natural coalition partners for BBB.


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DavidB.
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« Reply #143 on: March 18, 2023, 08:06:57 PM »

I’m not talking about BBB-PvdA only coalitions. I’m talking about coalitions of BBB and PvdA which also include either VVD, CDA or both. FVD in 2019 was already significantly more radical than BBB in 2023. And I’ll once again emphasize similarities between BBB and PvdA on issues like budget cuts for local facilities.

As for electorally powerful - I think the tendency of former “natural governing parties” like PvdA and CDA to have the desire to govern, especially in provinces where they have always done so, should not be understated, even apart from electoral considerations. It’s all very hard to predict, but I would be surprised if no province ends up with a coalition consisting of both PvdA and BBB.
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #144 on: March 18, 2023, 08:54:48 PM »

We can look at the current executives as a guide, but they are already unwieldy, and yet short of a majority everywhere. BBB involvement seems assured in several provinces.

Drenthe has a PvdA/VVD/CDA/GL/CU government. This has 15 seats, with 22 needed for a majority. BBB involvement seems unavoidable.

Flevoland has a VVD/GL/CDA/PvdA/CU/D66 government. These parties have 16 seats, with 21 needed for a majority. BBB involvement seems unavoidable.

Freisland has a CDA/VVD/PvdA/FNP government. These parties have 16 seats, with 22 needed for a majority. Adding GL, D66, and CU would bring them to 22, but this seems unduly awkward, so I suspect it will be BBB and some conservative parties.

Gelderland has a PvdA/CDA/VVD/GL/CU government. These parties have 23 seats, with 28 needed for a majority. D66, Volt, and 50+ combined would bring them to 28, but this 8 party government seems unwieldy, so again BBB will probably join.

Groningen has a GL/PvdA/CU/VVD/CDA/D66 government.These parties have won 19 seats of the 22 needed. If the regionalists can be brought on board, this could stay. Otherwise, some new and unwieldy coalition must be formed.

Limburg is an unusual case.

North Brabant has a VVD/CDA/D66/PvdA/GL government. These parties have 26 seats, with 28 needed. Local Brabant has 2, and was part of a prior more right-wing government. JA21 has 2, but GL would certainly leave. It seems likely that BBB will join.

North Holland has a GL/PvdA/VVD/D66 government. These parties have 25 of the needed 28 seats. CDA has 2, as does Volt. If both can be accommodated, a reasonably current coalition could be maintained. 50+ also has 2 seats.

Overijssel has a a CDA/VVD/CU/SGP/PvdA government. These parties have 16 of the needed 24 seats. BBB and the intractable right possess 20. There is no reasonable path forward without BBB, but perhaps PvdA will do their past to stay within an otherwise conservative government.

South Holland has a VVD/SGP/CU/GL/PvdA/CDA government. These parties have 26 of 28 seats needed. D66 has 4 seats, 50+ and Volt have 1 each. Probably some centrist grand coalition will remain.

Utrecht has a GL/D66/CDA/PvdA/CU government. These parties have 22 of the 25 needed. VVD has 6 seats, Volt has 2, 50+ has 1. I don’t know VVD is out of the government, but they can be included easily in a centre-left coalition.   

Zeeland has a VVD/SGP/PvdA/CDA government. VVD+SGP+CDA is 14 seats, with 6 going to the GL-PvdA combined list. 20 is needed for a majority. If they can keep GL on board, this executive can stay. Otherwise, it must add parties.

If VVD and CDA are willing, they could be Rutte-PvdA/GL coalitions in 3-6 provinces. BBB seems likely to join the government in 6-10 provinces. Overijssel is the only province where it’s easy to see PvdA and BBB together. In other provinces, it would require a dedication to work together with BBB in lieu of more suitable partners that would imperil attempts to create a joint PvdA/GL bloc.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #145 on: March 19, 2023, 01:19:49 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2023, 01:47:56 PM by DavidB. »

For the first time, Dutchmen living abroad could vote for the Senate too - for the newly established "electoral college non-residents", which was formed because it was deemed unfair that Dutchmen abroad did not have influence on the election of the Senate, and which has the sole purpose of electing the Senate together with the 12 Provincial States.

Today, the municipality of The Hague, which is responsible for the administration of this election, released the following preliminary results (still excluding some votes cast at embassies, which will be counted tomorrow):



(Click for full results - VVD and PvdD are cut off in the preview.)

As opposed to Dutchmen living in the Netherlands, eligible voters abroad had to actively register to vote in this election (hence the low number of votes cast and high turnout figure - this is only turnout of registered voters).

Good performance for GL, D66, VVD, and Volt - unsurprisingly so. No BBB and PVV here, so much of their support has gone to JA21 and FVD. I had expected the CDA figure to be much higher.

The electoral weight of this college will be extremely small, but small differences still matter in Senate elections.
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Harlow
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« Reply #146 on: March 19, 2023, 01:55:53 PM »

The PvdD in third place with 11.5% in Amsterdam is quite something.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #147 on: March 19, 2023, 02:16:40 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2023, 02:35:05 PM by DavidB. »

The PvdD in third place with 11.5% in Amsterdam is quite something.

The PvdD used to have two types of voter bases - the animal activist, environmentalist, "alternative" voter base, and disaffected protest voters (or simply apolitical people) who don't trust politicians but like animals. Quite unique. But it seems the party is shifting more towards the first base and losing the second base. This could also have to do with a subtle shift in focus under Esther Ouwehand's leadership - from Animal Party more towards Earth/Climate Party. You could say the party is becoming more conventionally "left-wing".

This is very visible in the change map compared to 2019: losses in post-industrial and otherwise peripheral areas in suburban Rotterdam, Southern Limburg, Western Brabant, Noord-Holland Noord, and Eastern Groningen; offset by big gains in the Alkmaar-Nijmegen "progressive belt", particularly in cities with highly educated voters.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #148 on: March 19, 2023, 02:47:26 PM »

One of you may have explained this, but why did neither Denk nor Bij1 run in these elections? (I guess DENK did run a small slate, but they lost all their seats). I know the former is troubled, but what's happening with the latter?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #149 on: March 19, 2023, 03:28:25 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2023, 06:19:52 PM by DavidB. »

One of you may have explained this, but why did neither Denk nor Bij1 run in these elections? (I guess DENK did run a small slate, but they lost all their seats). I know the former is troubled, but what's happening with the latter?

Last time in the PS elections, DENK ran everywhere but still failed to win a Senate seat. This time, they chose to focus their efforts on three of the provinces with the most Muslims: Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht. These are also provinces with a high electoral weight in the Senate election due to their big population, so theoretically one could win a Senate seat by winning something like 2 seats in each of these provinces. But they failed miserably: they even lost all of their Provincial seats there (and now have 0 left). They're not so much in trouble internally anymore, but simply seemed to have lost their mojo since they quit Öztürk's confrontational course and became more "constructive" in terms of style - from "Muslim PVV" to "Muslim CDA", if you will. It probably doesn't help that their voters are more low-info and don't tend to vote in second-order elections, if at all.

They also seem to be out of sync with young Muslims (their most important target group) when it comes to issues regarding traditional family structures, LGBT, and gender. While DENK refuses to go hard on issues like these (which would raise difficult questions in relation to their general stance "against discrimination"), FVD has embraced young Muslims as a potential voting bloc and has campaigned hard to win over this group - mostly on Instagram and TikTok. Thierry Baudet gave interviews on Muslim podcasts claiming he had been wrong all the time on Islam and 9/11 and sees "beautiful elements" in Islam, has been in the gym with very prominent Muslim bodybuilding influencer Kosso, supports Andrew Tate vocally, and is about to make a song with Muslim rap star Boef. They are very visible; DENK isn't.

According to opinion pollster Aziz El Kaddouri, 1 out of 10 young Muslims in the Netherlands is now inclined to support FVD, the NOS reported today. I suspect many of them used to support DENK.

As for BIJ1:

BIJ1 doesn't take part in the elections - they have had lots of infighting since the local elections, with accusations of "anti-Muslim racism" on the other hand and "anti-black racism" on the other hand between the two warring factions. Sylvana Simons is often not present in parliament due to chronic illness and pain, but cannot temporarily give up her seat, as it would go to #2 Quinsy Gario, who left the party on bad terms. Therefore, they are less visible than perhaps possible and decided not to take the risk. BIJ1 have endorsed the Party for the Animals.
So Simons' illness + internal unrest.

Then there is Volt, which could have won a second Senate seat had they stood everywhere. But there was supposedly a lack of capable candidates + they want to have gender parity everywhere.
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