🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Harlow]

The PvdD in third place with 11.5% in Amsterdam is quite something.

[Harlow]

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.

[Harlow]

Wow, PVV takes a big hit as well due to the BBB surge.

At least they are still in the top eight. Isn't "big hit" a relative term too?
hallo CDA? Ben je daar? Hallo?
(Hello CDA? Are you there? Hello?)

A big hit relative to their pre-provincial election polling. Nearly halved.

[Harlow]

-snip-

Fantastic and thorough analysis here--and incredible how there's still a decent chunk of parties you didn't get to. The fractured and malleable landscape is what makes Dutch politics so interesting to me.

[Harlow]

PvdD achieves their best polling result in history with 7.9% in the new I&O poll. I know we're working with single digit numbers here, but, well, it's electoral politics in the Netherlands.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1660683684888952833?s=20

[Harlow]

Ahead of the PvdA too!

Yes, the highest-polling party on the left. Quite something, but certainly shows how polarizing the nitrogen issue has become.

[Harlow]

Very interested to see what the electoral map will look like due to the rise of BBB (and if they can stay aloft in a national election as opposed to regional).

[Harlow]

Does Rutte resigning help (voters tired of him return to VVD) or hurt (lack of an experienced leader causes voters to look for other options) VVD's chances in the election?

I suppose it depends who replaces him. Any word on who that might be (he's literally the only name I know from the party)?

[Harlow]

Poll: voters prefer to see Pieter Omtzigt as prime minister (deVolkskrant)

Now that Mark Rutte is giving up, many Dutch people would like to see MP Pieter Omtzigt succeed him as prime minister. In a flash poll conducted by the EenVandaag Opinion Panel (which has 18,000 members), 58 percent say they consider the former CDA member an acceptable prime minister.

Omtzigt enjoys support among both left-wing and right-wing voters and could therefore be a connecting figure. Whether the MP from Twente is hungry for the premiership remains to be seen. The popular politician wants to make a decision about his future within a few weeks. He could set up his own party, leave politics or join the BoerBurgerBeweging. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas has made it clear several times that the door of her party is wide open to him. Perhaps a return to the CDA is also an option, although there are no indications for this so far.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/liveblog-val-kabinet-edith-schippers-geen-kandidaat-voor-lijsttrekkerschap-vvd-kiezers-zien-het-liefst-pieter-omtzigt-als-premier-blijkt-uit-peiling~b064c473/

(liveblog snippet translated by Google Chrome)

The possibility of two relatively new parties, BBB and Omzigt's potential party, fighting for 1st and 2nd billing in this election, is certainly intriguing.

[Harlow]

Starting to feel like all the leadership turnover clears the way for a fairly different lineup of top parties compared to last election. PVV will still be up there, but now a BBB v. "Red-Green" (v. Omzigt?) race looks somewhat more likely.

[Harlow]

I also think the PVV is going to take a nosedive, though, unless a gamechanger happens (i.e. they could realistically be in the coalition). Many of their voters will leave for BBB - perhaps they can mitigate the bleeding if immigration stays a top issue, but even then they will lose seats.

Well, I hope so, if only because the BBB seems like a more moderate, less rabidly bigoted alternative, with a different issue to rally around.

For D66, parliamentary group leader Jan Paternotte has decided not to run for leading candidate. This probably means Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten will lead the party. As parliamentary group leader (2017-2021), he was the architect of their "green" turn both on climate and on agriculture (outflanking GL on its signature issue), which laid the basis for the 2021 election victory. It was already rumored he would lead the party back then, but when Kaag entered the picture he was eager to step aside for her and was rewarded with his position as minister in Rutte-IV. D66 has a massive problem, but they also have better strategists than RedGreen, clearer ideas, a clearer support base, and a load of cash. I wouldn't be surprised if Jetten did more decently than we would now expect.

Ah, yes. Rob Jetten of TikTok Klaver-Jetten fanfic fame.

https://www.insider.com/rob-jetten-jesse-klaver-resse-tiktok-dutch-politicians-love-fake-2021-10

[Harlow]

First Peil poll since the government collapsed:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1680479378080251905?s=20

They also tested different scenarios:

Scenario: Omtzigt (*) forms a new party

Omtzigt-*: 29 (n.a.)
VVD-RE: 23 (-2)
PvdA/GL-S&D|G/EFA: 22 (-3)
BBB-*: 15 (-10)
PVV→ID: 12 (-3)
...

Scenario: Timmermans leads PvdA/GL

PvdA/GL-S&D|G/EFA: 28 (+3)
BBB-*: 25
VVD-RE: 25
PVV→ID: 15
D66-RE: 8 (-1)
PvdD-LEFT: 7 (-1)
CDA-EPP: 7
…

Looks like a BBB v. PvdA vs. VVD race at the moment, but still early going obviously. I wonder how long Omtzigt has to form a new party before he pulls a Desantis and misses his window of momentum (and also just, on a technical level).

[Harlow]

I didn't realize FvD and Baudet had gone that far off the deep end, but I can't say I'm surprised one bit.

I am also confused by the Volt phenomenon given the existence of D66, although I guess this is mostly attributable to the lack of an electoral threshold.

I would say that Volt making European federalism the core part of their party ideology, coupled with them actually having a Europe-wide party apparatus, makes them enticing to voters who have that as one of their main issues.

And as DavidB said, they have less baggage (although apparently still a bit of baggage based on their MPs feuding) than established parties with similar ideologies.

[Harlow]

In the 2021 campaign, Omtzigt's status was so big that the party could no longer sideline him or treat him disrespectfully in public, but the party elite hated his guts - leaked WhatsApp messages show he was called "psychopath", "sick man", "asshole", "insane" and "mentally unstable" in additions to rumors about him being "depressed".

He should lean into it by tattooing these words on his face like Jared Leto's Joker.

[Harlow]

Interestingly, Omtzigt says he does not want to become Prime Minister. Would be an interesting situation if his party were to become the largest and in the governmental coalition.

[Harlow]

FWIW, here's the peil poll from yesterday with an Omtzigt party:

Omtzigt: 27
VVD: 25 (-3 w/o Omtzigt)
Pvda/GL: 24 (-2)
PVV: 15 (-4)
BBB: 12 (-9)
D66: 8
PvdD: 8 (-1)
CDA: 6 (-2)
SP 6 (-2)
FVD: 5
Volt: 4
CU: 3 (-1)
JA21: 2 (-1)
SGP: 2 (-1)
DENK: 2
50+: 1

Complete disaster for the BBB

[Harlow]

He says he has a manifesto, but no candidate list, but has until Oct 8th for it. More news to follow.

honest question: how will he possibly recruit and vet a full slate of serious candidates in just 49 days? has there been any speculation/discussion in Dutch media about this? Because he's basically starting from scratch here and it's not like he has an existing network of party activists to recruit from.

It is unclear. Omtzigt himself has said he does not want to become "too big" as he "has learned from LPF and Forum for Democracy", which grew too quickly and then imploded.

The media are absolutely paying attention to it. Today, NRC published this article (ChatGPT can probably translate it quite well), in which the option of running in only a number of electoral districts is explored. Two political scientists note how remarkable Omtzigt's message really is: "vote for me, but not everybody, please".

From that article:

Voters may vote anywhere in the Netherlands, provided they apply for a voter's pass in advance. This already happens during holiday periods, when people want to vote for their holiday destination. On November 22, Omtzigt fans could then, for example, drive to Overijssel from other places to vote for him there. “It is possible, but it may be a bit theoretical,” says Van den Braak.

This is an absurd set-up, to have your list of candidates based on where you happen to be voting and not on permanent residence.

[Harlow]

First polling after the formation of NSC. Table from I&O Research:



NSC: 31 seats
GL/PvdA: 28
VVD: 22
PVV: 13
BBB: 13
PvdD: 8
D66: 7
SP: 5
CU: 4
SGP: 4
CDA: 3 (lol)
FvD: 3
Volt: 3
JA21: 3
DENK: 3
50+: 0
BIJ1: 0
BVNL: 0

This is of course assuming Omtzigt does nothing to limit his party's maximum number of seats they can win.

[Harlow]

uh what lol

https://twitter.com/CrazyDutchPol/status/1699320485937357208?s=20

[Harlow]

Worst poll for D66 since 2008, apparently. PvdD haven't taken a hit yet but the timeframe may be missing most of this week's chaos.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1702923359967731878?s=20

[Harlow]

Splinter was subject to a Russian attempt to sow division within Dutch politics

A difficult feat, to be sure

[Harlow]

I choose to assume this is referring to one specific, uncommonly large Wolf.





My results from Checkjestem:

Volt: 91%
PvdD: 87%
GL-PvdA: 83%
SP: 78%
D66: 74%
DENK: 70%
BIJ1: 70%
PVV: 52% (wha??)
CU: 52%
BBB: 48%
VVD: 30%
CDA: 30%
FvD: 26%
SGP: 26%
JA1: 26%
BVNL: 26%
NSC: 22%

Shocked to see NSC and not PVV or FvD, as the furthest from my views.

[Harlow]

Timmermans will be stuck between a rock and a hard place - he doesn't want to be Corbyned with the general public but also has to appease or at least silence the activist base from causing this internal dispute to overshadow their campaign. Perhaps this becomes easier for him if Israel's response gets bloody, as he will then condemn Israel as usual and most of his voters will be happy.

It unquestionably already has.

[Harlow]

Why was Wilders not included in tonight's debate?

[Harlow]

I just watched a report on the election from NOS and they ran into the lijsttrekker of LEF, who had a tattoo of his party's policies on his arm. LEF was in the top three parties of my StemWijzer result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_pNjFzMlBU