🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Zinneke]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

He won't accept the EP Parliament President gig because he probably doesn't respect the EP enough as an institution coming from a veteran Council member and head of state. Unless he wants to just put his feet up and loves the Brussels networking culture he won't take it.

He could be EU council President easily as Michel is hapless and there is no better veteran in the current crop that can do what he does.

Von Der Leyen isn't confirmed and some people reckon Biden is pushing her for the NATO gig which is scary given how she managed MoD for her country and fell upwards into the Commission role. But she's a good Atlantacist that the French also like which is a rarity.

NATO is maybe more prestigious still for Rutte but let's see. Maybe he could do with an extended break. He seemed to resign "from politics" so I reckon it'll be a less publicly demanding role, but still diplomatic.

[Harlow]

Does Rutte resigning help (voters tired of him return to VVD) or hurt (lack of an experienced leader causes voters to look for other options) VVD's chances in the election?

I suppose it depends who replaces him. Any word on who that might be (he's literally the only name I know from the party)?

[oldtimer]

I'm surprised Rutte resigned.
Usually those who remain in power for decades try to stick around for as long as possible.

Although he might have seen that there was no possibility of him winning 1st place this time, 13 years might have been the "as long as possible".

As a political obituary:

He governed like Merkel and fell like Merkel, he ate all his coalition partners until there where none, being the master conspirator and backstabber until no one trusted him.

The last straw being a controversial strongly held personal opinion that led to a personal collapse of support, just like Merkel or Thatcher.

Record:

The Dutch economy grew as same as the Belgian one which mostly had no government, so he had no economic impact, maybe smaller gdp per capita.

Abolished referendums because he was constantly unpopular and he lost them all, instead of trying to be popular for a change.

[Mike88]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

He won't accept the EP Parliament President gig because he probably doesn't respect the EP enough as an institution coming from a veteran Council member and head of state. Unless he wants to just put his feet up and loves the Brussels networking culture he won't take it.

He could be EU council President easily as Michel is hapless and there is no better veteran in the current crop that can do what he does.

Von Der Leyen isn't confirmed and some people reckon Biden is pushing her for the NATO gig which is scary given how she managed MoD for her country and fell upwards into the Commission role. But she's a good Atlantacist that the French also like which is a rarity.

NATO is maybe more prestigious still for Rutte but let's see. Maybe he could do with an extended break. He seemed to resign "from politics" so I reckon it'll be a less publicly demanding role, but still diplomatic.

The problem for Rutte is that he's from ALDE and because the European Council is already in the hands of a ALDE member, the likeliest successor of Michel will be either from EPP or PES. The same for the European Commission, as the job normally goes to the party that wins the EP elections, and ALDE is in a fight for 3rd place with ECR according to polls.

But, yeah, maybe NATO is the more probable, it's less "party politics". We'll see.

[PSOL]

Mark Rutte, along with the likes of Italian leaders and Pedro Sanchez, remains the worst leader of a Western European country of the 21st century.

[Vosem]

Wow; it didn't seem like he was particularly doomed or anything. The smart money at least seemed to be that the van der Plas/Omtzigt challenge had lots of problems and Rutte was likely to get another term; I guess he ran out of drive, or something. End of an era.

How does VVD fare in the absence of Rutte as a leader?

[DavidB.]

He governed like Merkel and fell like Merkel

Merkel chose her own moment, though. Rutte didn't.

Does Rutte resigning help (voters tired of him return to VVD) or hurt (lack of an experienced leader causes voters to look for other options) VVD's chances in the election?

I suppose it depends who replaces him. Any word on who that might be (he's literally the only name I know from the party)?

It will most probably hurt the VVD, which had turned into the Rutte machine. The most obvious candidate to replace him seems Dilan Yesilgöz, Minister of Justice & Security. Another option would be former parliamentary group leader Klaas Dijkhoff, who had quit politics in 2021 but still has his share of admirers and who is more on the left of the party; and Edith Schippers, former Healthcare Minister who is more right-wing on immigration than Rutte but more socially liberal, but who screwed up the Senate campaign earlier this year.

Less likely candidates are Sophie Hermans, current parliamentary group leader, but unpopular and seen as incompetent with the public; Vincent Karremans, leader of the VVD in Rotterdam; and Christianne van der Wal, former party chairwoman, current Minister for Nature and Nitrogen, deeply unpopular with farmers but admired by social liberals and more green elements within the party.

Edit: After the collapse of the coalition but before Rutte's announcement today, 1Vandaag did a poll among GE21 VVD voters about which potential candidates they consider "acceptable" as leading candidate in the next election. Karremans, Becker and Aartsen have low name recognition. Hermans and Van der Wal have high name recognition but still a very low acceptability rate. Opinions on Schippers are mixed. Dijkhoff and Yesilgöz would be frontrunners, based on this.
https://twitter.com/JeroenKester/status/1678324619776860160

[Zinneke]

Wow; it didn't seem like he was particularly doomed or anything. The smart money at least seemed to be that the van der Plas/Omtzigt challenge had lots of problems and Rutte was likely to get another term; I guess he ran out of drive, or something. End of an era.

He is number 1 target of both opposition and 2 parties within his own cabinet who were gonna make him lose a motion of no confidence in a sitting "resigning" government, which would have been a very bitter end to finish on. Also, almost certainly both right and left-wing parties in negotiations after the election would have demanded Rutte resign the PM spot. Even Teflon Mark would not survive this environment. I'm curious if this was premeditated to ensure he was given sympathy points to survive the interim government period or if it genuinely was major sudden political pressure and blowback that he didn't expect following what he called a "very tough week" to personal friends.

[DavidB.]

Have to say I still have to get over the initial shock of all of this. For years it felt like nothing happened. Leaves me with very mixed feelings.

Wow; it didn't seem like he was particularly doomed or anything. The smart money at least seemed to be that the van der Plas/Omtzigt challenge had lots of problems and Rutte was likely to get another term; I guess he ran out of drive, or something. End of an era.

I guess he figured he was doomed because:

1) He had lost the spin game of the collapse of the coalition in the newspapers; he guessed he could successfully blame CU but he didn't succeed at it.
2) BBB and/or Omtzigt are set to win more votes than the VVD
3) Too many parties refuse to cooperate with him specifically, leading to a potential Netanyahu scenario which doesn't fit the Netherlands and its consensus-based political culture, and which he perhaps doesn't have the energy for - it's a lost battle

I fully expect him to chair the EU Council (suits him best, as Zinneke said) or NATO.

[Lord Halifax]

I fully expect him to chair the EU Council or NATO.

I think it'll be hard to elect a NATO SG that isn't a Central or Eastern European or a woman, preferably both, and if they do Ben Wallace is much more popular in C & E Europe and will be more acceptable for them.

[DavidB.]

I think it'll be hard to elect a NATO SG that isn't a Central or Eastern European or a woman, preferably both, and if they do Ben Wallace is much more popular in C & E Europe and will be more acceptable for them.

Rutte's crusade against Poland (and Hungary, but less important) as well as his troubled history with Erdogan (see 2017 election campaign) won't help him either. On the other hand, who the Americans want matters too. But I think the Council is more likely and suits him better.

[Harlow]

Poll: voters prefer to see Pieter Omtzigt as prime minister (deVolkskrant)

Now that Mark Rutte is giving up, many Dutch people would like to see MP Pieter Omtzigt succeed him as prime minister. In a flash poll conducted by the EenVandaag Opinion Panel (which has 18,000 members), 58 percent say they consider the former CDA member an acceptable prime minister.

Omtzigt enjoys support among both left-wing and right-wing voters and could therefore be a connecting figure. Whether the MP from Twente is hungry for the premiership remains to be seen. The popular politician wants to make a decision about his future within a few weeks. He could set up his own party, leave politics or join the BoerBurgerBeweging. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas has made it clear several times that the door of her party is wide open to him. Perhaps a return to the CDA is also an option, although there are no indications for this so far.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/liveblog-val-kabinet-edith-schippers-geen-kandidaat-voor-lijsttrekkerschap-vvd-kiezers-zien-het-liefst-pieter-omtzigt-als-premier-blijkt-uit-peiling~b064c473/

(liveblog snippet translated by Google Chrome)

The possibility of two relatively new parties, BBB and Omzigt's potential party, fighting for 1st and 2nd billing in this election, is certainly intriguing.

[Zinneke]

Schippers, the David Miliband of VVD, has ruled herself out of the VVD list leader position.

[DavidB.]

Schippers, the David Miliband of VVD, has ruled herself out of the VVD list leader position.

And so did Dijkhoff now. This means Yesilgöz should be considered the frontrunner. The VVD board will announce its “preferred candidate” this week still. However, there will probably be an election: former MP André Bosman, with a military background, declared himself a candidate too, and according to the rules of procedure there will be an internal election if there is more than one candidate.

[DavidB.]

Former Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis, also known for binge drinking and throwing up in the tv show House Ibiza, is also not available for the VVD leadership.

[PSOL]

Former Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis, also known for binge drinking and throwing up in the tv show House Ibiza, is also not available for the VVD leadership.

You seriously can’t handle Eurotrash Jersey Shore?

[DavidB.]

- VVD parliamentary group leader Sophie Hermans has now also declined running. Yesterday, she was the subject of a remarkable video by the communist vlogging channel Left Laser, in which the VVD's head of communication Kees Berghuis - who has one of the biggest offices in all of parliament, bigger than most VVD MPs, reflecting his massive influence - got so angry he decided to aggressively take his microphone away.

https://twitter.com/LeftLaser/status/1678657648315465728?s=20

- Relations between the CDA and D66 have soured too. CDA Senator and former MP Madeleine van Toorenburg voiced her thoughts on D66 leader Sigrid Kaag, who had threatened Rutte with a motion of no confidence. Van Toorenburg: "Sod off to the UN!"

https://twitter.com/WNLHaagseLobby/status/1678490967832162307?s=20

- For PvdA/GL, rumor has it that Frans Timmermans only wants the top job. He doesn't want to leave Brussels just to enter Dutch parliament or become "just another" minister. Therefore, he would be their "candidate for Prime Minister" but not be the #1 on the joint list - so he would only leave Brussels when PvdA/GL actually get the PM position. Jesse Klaver could then be #1 on the list. PvdA/GL hope this scenario would still attract Timmermans-friendly voters, even without him on the ballot.

- The CDA is in a bad shape and the names going around to replace Wopke Hoekstra as party leader reflect this - they include junior MPs Henri Bontenbal (energy and climate) and the relatively visible Derk Boswijk (agriculture, foreign affairs, defense), the invisible Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Vivianne Heijnen, and, interestingly, Mona Keijzer, who lost her job as Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs in Rutte-IV over publicly voicing her opposition to the COVID passport system.

[oldtimer]

He governed like Merkel and fell like Merkel

Merkel chose her own moment, though. Rutte didn't.

Does Rutte resigning help (voters tired of him return to VVD) or hurt (lack of an experienced leader causes voters to look for other options) VVD's chances in the election?

I suppose it depends who replaces him. Any word on who that might be (he's literally the only name I know from the party)?

It will most probably hurt the VVD, which had turned into the Rutte machine. The most obvious candidate to replace him seems Dilan Yesilgöz, Minister of Justice & Security. Another option would be former parliamentary group leader Klaas Dijkhoff, who had quit politics in 2021 but still has his share of admirers and who is more on the left of the party; and Edith Schippers, former Healthcare Minister who is more right-wing on immigration than Rutte but more socially liberal, but who screwed up the Senate campaign earlier this year.

Less likely candidates are Sophie Hermans, current parliamentary group leader, but unpopular and seen as incompetent with the public; Vincent Karremans, leader of the VVD in Rotterdam; and Christianne van der Wal, former party chairwoman, current Minister for Nature and Nitrogen, deeply unpopular with farmers but admired by social liberals and more green elements within the party.

Edit: After the collapse of the coalition but before Rutte's announcement today, 1Vandaag did a poll among GE21 VVD voters about which potential candidates they consider "acceptable" as leading candidate in the next election. Karremans, Becker and Aartsen have low name recognition. Hermans and Van der Wal have high name recognition but still a very low acceptability rate. Opinions on Schippers are mixed. Dijkhoff and Yesilgöz would be frontrunners, based on this.
https://twitter.com/JeroenKester/status/1678324619776860160

I suspect that if Merkel thought that she had a chance of staying after the 2021 election she would not have retired.

That's why I consider the circumstances similar, they both ran out of road and stepped down before a possible defeat.

[DavidB.]

^ Please remove that long quote with the tweets in it or cut it down to the things you're responding to.

Dilan Yesilgöz is in.
https://twitter.com/DilanYesilgoz/status/1678981726247215109?s=20

[DavidB.]

And Sigrid Kaag is out. She will not lead D66 another time.

[Harlow]

Starting to feel like all the leadership turnover clears the way for a fairly different lineup of top parties compared to last election. PVV will still be up there, but now a BBB v. "Red-Green" (v. Omzigt?) race looks somewhat more likely.

[DavidB.]

Starting to feel like all the leadership turnover clears the way for a fairly different lineup of top parties compared to last election. PVV will still be up there, but now a BBB v. "Red-Green" (v. Omzigt?) race looks somewhat more likely.

Absolutely. My cautious working assumption - so much is still going to happen and there are so many unknown unknowns - is that BBB, RedGreen and Omtzigt's project will be the three biggest parties - not sure in what order. The VVD have a higher floor than any other party and will always get at least 15 seats, so they would be fourth (could get bigger than either BBB or Omtzigt if one takes too many votes from the other). Then there will be a whole number of small parties below 10 seats.

I also think the PVV is going to take a nosedive, though, unless a gamechanger happens (i.e. they could realistically be in the coalition). Many of their voters will leave for BBB - perhaps they can mitigate the bleeding if immigration stays a top issue, but even then they will lose seats.

--

The general board of the VVD and all heads of regions have unanimously nominated Dilan Yesilgoz as VVD top candidate: "A power woman bursting of energy and ideas to become the captain of our club." This is receiving more attention than I had expected, although Sigrid Kaag's departure is now the subject number one.
https://twitter.com/EricWetzels/status/1679411861274472448

For D66, parliamentary group leader Jan Paternotte has decided not to run for leading candidate. This probably means Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten will lead the party. As parliamentary group leader (2017-2021), he was the architect of their "green" turn both on climate and on agriculture (outflanking GL on its signature issue), which laid the basis for the 2021 election victory. It was already rumored he would lead the party back then, but when Kaag entered the picture he was eager to step aside for her and was rewarded with his position as minister in Rutte-IV. D66 has a massive problem, but they also have better strategists than RedGreen, clearer ideas, a clearer support base, and a load of cash. I wouldn't be surprised if Jetten did more decently than we would now expect.

Meanwhile, in smaller party news, JA21 MP Nicki Pouw-Verweij has decided not to be a candidate for the party anymore - unclear whether she'll quit altogether or stay in politics, but go elsewhere. Pouw-Verweij, who holds a PhD in medicine, is part of the conservative faction of the party and is known as a hard-working MP who always has her facts together. She had voiced criticism of the lack of internal democracy and professionalism within the party before. With her leaving, the party is on life support. It is doubtful whether they'll even win any more seats than in GE21.

[Harlow]

I also think the PVV is going to take a nosedive, though, unless a gamechanger happens (i.e. they could realistically be in the coalition). Many of their voters will leave for BBB - perhaps they can mitigate the bleeding if immigration stays a top issue, but even then they will lose seats.

Well, I hope so, if only because the BBB seems like a more moderate, less rabidly bigoted alternative, with a different issue to rally around.

For D66, parliamentary group leader Jan Paternotte has decided not to run for leading candidate. This probably means Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten will lead the party. As parliamentary group leader (2017-2021), he was the architect of their "green" turn both on climate and on agriculture (outflanking GL on its signature issue), which laid the basis for the 2021 election victory. It was already rumored he would lead the party back then, but when Kaag entered the picture he was eager to step aside for her and was rewarded with his position as minister in Rutte-IV. D66 has a massive problem, but they also have better strategists than RedGreen, clearer ideas, a clearer support base, and a load of cash. I wouldn't be surprised if Jetten did more decently than we would now expect.

Ah, yes. Rob Jetten of TikTok Klaver-Jetten fanfic fame.

https://www.insider.com/rob-jetten-jesse-klaver-resse-tiktok-dutch-politicians-love-fake-2021-10

[PSOL]

PVV is going to survive, Geert Wilders is the true Teflon Don.

[DavidB.]

This morning, Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten officially declared his candidacy for leading candidate for D66. He was immediately endorsed by fellow party members Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, Education Minister Robbert Dijkgraaf and Deputy Minister for Mining Hans Vijlbrief. In other words, a carbon copy of the scenario within the VVD: they're set on one candidate and it'll be him.

Meanwhile, Jesse Klaver has become a member of the PvdA and explained in a Volkskrant op-ed why: he believes we live in a new era of pillarization (based on social class and education level) and that people from different pillars uniting in one party is needed for change, and he believes only if the left work together a breakthrough towards a system that is less about individualism and more about solidarity can be created.

https://twitter.com/jesseklaver/status/1679734863237111810?s=20

The election will take place on Wednesday November 22.

And the exodus continues: Carola Schouten (ChristenUnie) will finish her term as demissionary Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Anti-Poverty Policy, Participation and Pensions and then quit politics. In the previous government, Schouten had the ungrateful task to be Minister of Agriculture, which seemed boring until the Council of State presented its landmark ruling on nitrogen in 2019, leading to massive farmers' protests. This means the Prime Minister and all three Deputy Prime Ministers are quitting politics. After Kaag's departure it was already clear that all four coalition parties were to have a  new party leader in the next election.