🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/RonnieAmsterdam/status/1486239279940571138

[Zinneke]

Less cucked though.

[Zinneke]

If you had to describe Volt's political position, how would you describe it aside from being pro-european federalism?

It is a very similar party to D66 but there are couple of things worth highlighting I feel (and DavidB can correct me). For one, Volt is very open about wanting to lead a sort of political revolution and a generational transition of power. They play on the elite/ordinary people cleavage to an extent despite their high educated voter base, and they definitely play on the generational cleavage more than D66.

D66 is more of a managerialist/conservative reformist kind of party that believes in maintaining cadre interests and status quo politics and has pretty much given up on its wacky ideas to renew Dutch politics such as majoritarian system or elected mayors (or referenda, which really damaged their image as a "let's renew dutch politics and make it closer to citizens").

In simple terms, Volt is first and foremost a youth party, and then one that seeks to overhaul the political system (inc. the Eurofederalism thing). D66 is a party that goes across generations and targets different cadres and sectors specifically, and does not seek an overhaul anymore.

It's pretty clear though that Volt mainly benefit from disgruntled D66 voters.

[Zinneke]

Klaver has asked that confidential documents on Ukraine are not shared with FvD and PVV. Baudet has already hinted at having no issue with taking Russian money.

I hope this opens a broader debate into foreign funding of Dutch political parties. Their rules seem waaay too lax, especially with the likes of Denk roaming about too.

[Zinneke]

Psychologically quite a big boost for them, I presume?

Yes they’ve managed to maintain face better than the other pillar party CDA throughout the last year, that’s for sure.

[Zinneke]

This might be a silly question but what is stopping the various FVD splitters (JA21, BVNL, Otten) from working together? Is it actual policy differences or just egos?

The Dutch clearly have egos on par with the British in terms of self-importance, and yet they are the most sectarian nation in Europe. Each village and town, and in some case neighborhoods, views itself as superior to the savages outside it’s borders.

Nope, just Amsterdam (and they're partially right regarding the savages part)

[Zinneke]

In general in Limburg there is an old population, people go to retire there

[Zinneke]

All the GL workers I have met in Brussels (who are not as caricatural as GL activists in local branches in the Netherlands) absolutely despise Timmermans so I'm a bit surprised he and his wing are calling for closer cooperation. I feel the whole GL-PvdA thing is because of the Kaag effect last election where she successfully convinced left-leaning voters to back her as a way to try and topple Rutte within the coalition dynamics.

Overall though I think it would be a mistake to merge PvdA and GL, I think there is space for both and that if the PvdA can be deployed in some areas (I'm particularly talking about Peripheral Netherlands here, where PvdA was very strong in the past!, and Ploumen demonstrated that having local people with visibility in those parts is important!) to shore up voters who will not touch GL with a bargepole because its a Randstad stoner party in their eyes then so be it.

The Left needs to be as pragmatic as possible. Yes "Timmermans for PM" might be an effective campaign to siphon D66 votes and sell the toppling Rutte part in theory, but Timmermans is best deployed in the straight talking parts of the Dutch demographic. He'll be hamstrung by GL's favorite restrictions like speed limits (not talking about the drug!) when really he should just be let loose with his rhetoric.

This idea is just because the Left wants to feel good about itself seeing it high in the polls again. I guarantee you with a year there will be reports of tensions between activists, etc. People who join PvdA join it for entire different reasons than joining GL.

[Zinneke]

Is there any chance the meteoric rise of the BBB will be here to stay, and they'll be a major party? Or are they just a flash in the pan in response to the farmer protests? Hoping for the former, of course.

They've made the CU agricultural minister resign. But I think their electoral score is obviously correlated with how pressing the farmers issue is. it really is capturing the political debate though .

[Zinneke]

What is this new party? The "BBB"?

Its a front for the various big corporatist farmer interests that organised the farmers protests. It adopts classic center-periphery cleavage issues and some standard populism/anti-political sentiment to boost its cause but fundamentally its the equivalent of an extremely successful psy-op that relies on a caricature of a Dutch farmer to motivate people to vote for it. Some of their defenders will say they are centre-right populist but they have some genuinely unhinged policies like wanting to imprison scientists who selectively choose data (which makes me laugh as someone who has had dealings with the farming and chemical industries in the EU lobbying arena - for them selective facts are a way of life).

Honestly, putting myself in conservative shoes, i would still be dissapointed that JA21 didn't replace the old FvD vote like for like. At least JA21 have a coherent ideological plan that goes beyond ''love big agri, fck Randstad''. BBB became a fad because the farmer protests were the new omnipresent issue that the mainstream media loved to report on (a similar obsession with Baudet helped him too) and to their credit the upside down flags, the protests, etc have all been consistent enough to make the environmental standards debate a big cleavage issue.

[Zinneke]

Yeah got to agree with Laki here, for me what makes the Netherlands so unique is the accessibility of democratic spaces compared to other "democratic" countries such as Belgium, which is a very rigid partiocracy with lots of "vote banks" and where mainstream media invites the same card carrying establishment parties to debate over asinine issues. The Netherlands has a more permeable political system as such.

As I was alluding to in my previous post, all you need to do to crack the Dutch system is have a successful surge is media attention and the cleavage will form itself. People were discussing the farmers protests regardless of geographic location. The upside down flags were something us Belgians knew about. It was bound to be a big cleavage issue.

Anyway it will be interesting to see how Baudet copes with cocaine withdrawal symptoms.

[Zinneke]

Of course us Belgians tend to be wrong and slow so feel free to ignore the above posts.

[Zinneke]

D66 are a cucked party episode 754. They seem to be the big losers from this situation now, which is no mean feat given CDA are in a more existential crisis.

[Zinneke]

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.

Hmm I would say there is a perverse logic to this : the people in central Amsterdam causing mayhem are the public "lads on tour"-style drinkers, not the stoners. Those are just annoying.

Anyway its important to not blame the substance, but rather the type of people we're bringing up in the world.

[Zinneke]

Omtzigt may be popular, but the fact he chose to spend two years sitting on his hands instead of building up a party doesn't inspire much confidence in his political skills – if he wants to stay in politics at all, that is.

I'd argue the opposite, building up a party would be very risky.

[Zinneke]

With parties so divided how likely is it that there will be an actual government or will it be like Israel where have multiple elections before resolving it?  Likewise interested in how long it will likely take to form government?  I am guessing if election is in November it will take until at least spring of 2024 and possibly longer.  Does Netherlands have a time limit before they must go to a new election or is there any chance of breaking the record Belgium set at 583 days?

No, the Netherlands has a much easier time forming governments than Belgium (and Israel) because people on opposite sides of the political spectrum still tend to be constructive in the Netherlands. It might have more to do with the socialisation aspect of the political class in the NL that generally isn't as polarised as the spectrum suggests. That BBB for example call for a government with SP or that JA21 would probably share a gov with a minor left wing party is indicative of the consensus-building model being strangely resilient despite fragmentation

Last time out only took long because of a very peculiar political scandal that made dealing with Rutte difficult for D66 especially but they caved in as they always do..

[Zinneke]

Rutte isn't running.


Hoekstra neither but that is a given.

[Zinneke]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

[Zinneke]

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

No. There will not be a bite of confidence

Yep they changed their stance in the last hour though, both Klaver and Wilders had tweeted that Rutte needed to "go now*.

I wonder what made them change their stance? Sympathy points for Rutte being obvious?

[Zinneke]

Btw, for me Rutte's legacy and reason for longevity is that he's also a master dealmaker. Michael Ignatieff in an interview on the Alistair Campbell politics podcast said there were too many ideologues or even intellectuals in politics who fail because they are unable to drive deals through. Rutte IMO was a master at dealmaking and he ended coalitions too based on calculating that he could get better deals with other partners, as was the case here. He might be a serious loss to the EU Council for example because many recognised his know how in driving deals between actors in the Netherlands reflected his approach there despite his stubborn tone on the major issues. My comments on Dutch governments being easier to form than other very fragmented political scenes may turn out to go to dust if there isn't someone like him with such skills. Rutte was divisive towards the end of his term, and especially after the Omzigt debacle, but he maintained a solid dealmaking capability that is sorely missed in modern political society across the West. he'll do well in whatever diplogig he gets after this one, certainly better than people like Ardern, who while I agree more with politically, is hyped up by the liberal international crowd for a diplogig because she is marketable rather than competent.

[Zinneke]

The end of an era in the Netherlands.

An EU job seems improbable for Rutte as Von der Leyen is expected to continue and the European Council Chair post is normally given to incumbent leaders. But, maybe President of the EU Parliament? The NATO leadership is also up for grabs next year, but not sure if the US will accept another European to the post.

He won't accept the EP Parliament President gig because he probably doesn't respect the EP enough as an institution coming from a veteran Council member and head of state. Unless he wants to just put his feet up and loves the Brussels networking culture he won't take it.

He could be EU council President easily as Michel is hapless and there is no better veteran in the current crop that can do what he does.

Von Der Leyen isn't confirmed and some people reckon Biden is pushing her for the NATO gig which is scary given how she managed MoD for her country and fell upwards into the Commission role. But she's a good Atlantacist that the French also like which is a rarity.

NATO is maybe more prestigious still for Rutte but let's see. Maybe he could do with an extended break. He seemed to resign "from politics" so I reckon it'll be a less publicly demanding role, but still diplomatic.

[Zinneke]

Wow; it didn't seem like he was particularly doomed or anything. The smart money at least seemed to be that the van der Plas/Omtzigt challenge had lots of problems and Rutte was likely to get another term; I guess he ran out of drive, or something. End of an era.

He is number 1 target of both opposition and 2 parties within his own cabinet who were gonna make him lose a motion of no confidence in a sitting "resigning" government, which would have been a very bitter end to finish on. Also, almost certainly both right and left-wing parties in negotiations after the election would have demanded Rutte resign the PM spot. Even Teflon Mark would not survive this environment. I'm curious if this was premeditated to ensure he was given sympathy points to survive the interim government period or if it genuinely was major sudden political pressure and blowback that he didn't expect following what he called a "very tough week" to personal friends.

[Zinneke]

Schippers, the David Miliband of VVD, has ruled herself out of the VVD list leader position.

[Zinneke]

I'd say I've met people who would vote VOLT but would find D66 too stuffy, not exciting enough in terms of policy and also markedly more right wing on the political economy spectrum. VOLT do give off McKinsey faux progressive vibes and there was a journalist who remarked that a lot of their rank and file are consultants, D66 often seem to me more purely political types. It also depends on the branch you get though. I'd say of I were Dutch I'd consider my vote for them but never vote D66, which is weird because I voted D66 in a local election.

My main motivation for being a card carrying Volt member in Brussels though would be the endless free lunch events hosted by shady lobby groups their members work for and me liking eurocratic women in business attire.

[Zinneke]

Frans Timmermans isn't just dipping his toe in then. He can sense the moment.

I still am in two minds about the merger : I actually think it benefits the Left to be able to target different types of voters and not be pencilled in as an urban party, which is the risk when working with GL activist types. But Timmermans is actually very effective at changing his message according to his audience. They could deploy him in his home region Limburg and places like Gronigen and rack up voters. So let's see how this turns out. I think as David was alluding to they definitely want to recreate the dynamic of the 2012 campaign, seeing if voter blocks can consolidate over the PM contest.