🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Logical]

North Holland Exit Poll

BBB 9 (New)
VVD 8 (-1)
GL 7 (-2)
PvDA 7 (+1)
PvDD 5 (+2)
D66 4 (-2)
Volt 3 (New)
JA21 3 (New)
PVV 2 (-1)
CDA 2 (-2)
SP 2 (-1)
50+ 1 (-)
FVD 1 (-8)
CU 1 (-1)
DENK 0 (-1)

[Logical]

Overijssel Exit Poll

BBB 17 (New)
CDA 4 (-5)
VVD 4 (-2)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdA 3 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
PVV 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
D66 2 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
JA21 1 (New)
SP 1 (-2)
FvD 1 (-5)
Volt 1 (New)
50+ 1 (-)

Total massacre. RIP CDA

[DavidB.]

Wow. Overijssel:

BBB 31.3% - 17 (+17)
CDA 4 (-5)
VVD 4 (-2)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdA 3 (-1)
ChristenUnie 3 (-1)
PVV 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
D66 2 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
JA21 1 (+1)
SP 1 (-2)
FVD 1 (-5)
Volt 1 (+1)
50Plus 1 (nc)

Brutal. Almost all parties in red. GL-PvdA also in red. CDA, FVD and SP decimated. BBB will be the biggest party nationally and in the Senate for sure.

Hard to see how the government survives this in the long run. Israel/Bulgaria scenario within 5 years.

[Estrella]

Winning in the province that includes Amsterdam and getting a mega-landslide (by Dutch standards) in their strongest province? Wow.

BBB leader looked like she was going to pass out on live TV after that Overijsel result. Good for her.

[Logical]

North Brabant Exit Poll

BBB 12 (New)
VVD 9 (-1)
PvdA 5 (+2)
SP 5 (-)
GL 5 (-)
D66 4 (-1)
PVV 3 (-1)
CDA 3 (-5)
JA21 2 (New)
PvdD 2 (-)
50+ 2 (-1)
Local Party 1 (-)
Volt 1 (New)
FVD 1 (-8)
CU-SGP 1 (-)

BBB dominates. Decent result for PvdA here considering everything.

[DavidB.]

Complete contrast with FVD 4 years ago. Van der Plas is continuously surrounded by other people from her party and does not lay out a soft of utopian, revolutionary vision, but continues to stay down to earth and talk like she could be your neighbor. She emphasizes that BBB will work together with others, but that things really have to change. "It's not just about nitrogen", she said, "it's about citizens not being heard anymore. It's about a train in The Hague that is going faster and faster. We're going to stop that train. We're going to put citizens at the center again."

BBB should end up at about 20% nationally, maybe more - a much bigger victory than the FVD one in 2019.

[DavidB.]

Senate exit poll shows majority for government + GL/PvdA: 39 seats (24 without GL/PvdA).

[Logical]

Senate Exit Poll
BBB 15 (New)
GL/PvdA 15 (+1)
VVD 10 (-2)
D66 6 (-1)
CDA 5 (-4)
PVV 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (-1)
SP 3 (-1)
JA21 3 (New)
CU 3 (-1)
FVD 2 (-10)
Volt 2 (New)
50+ 1 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
Others 1 (-)

Government 24 (-8)

[DL]

Senate exit poll shows majority for government + GL/PvdA: 39 seats (24 without GL/PvdA).

Wouldn't the VOLT party's 2 seats also fit in well with Gov't + GL/PVDA?

[DavidB.]

Senate exit poll shows majority for government + GL/PvdA: 39 seats (24 without GL/PvdA).

Wouldn't the VOLT party's 2 seats also fit in well with Gov't + GL/PVDA?

Yes, and SGP could prop them up too, and the next option would be the SP. It wouldn't be completely impossible. But realistically, the more partners needed, the more difficult it would get. At some point it would just get too much - also in terms of optics. GL/PvdA alone is still workable, they did it over the last years, they can do it now. GL/PvdA will act tough and extract very painful compromises which will cause VVD and CDA to bleed more, but it would work.

The only question is whether the CDA will pull the plug now. Their losses are absolutely historical. Any rational person would pull the plug (except... but do you want new elections now?), but some people are so far into "responsibility over party" mode that they are willing to sacrifice the party.

---

Mathematically, NL politics now has three blocs of the same size.

Center/coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU=24
Right-wing opposition: BBB+JA21+FVD+PVV+SGP=25
Left-wing opposition: GLPvdA+PvdD+Volt+SP=24

[DavidB.]

Rutte (VVD) minimizes the amount of change and emphasizes similarities with the past, Kaag (D66) is "satisfied" with her result (loss); Hoekstra (CDA), on the other hand, emphasizes that this is an electoral earthquake and that a torpedo has hit the coalition.

[Logical]

BBB won 58.8% of the vote in rural Tubbergen, Overijssel. Complete bloodbath for every other party. CDA lost three quarters of their vote in their former stronghold, down to 11% from 42%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

[Mike88]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

Well, their leader Caroline van der Plas was a CDA member until 2019. So, probably yes.

[Oryxslayer]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

That's what they were until the CDA decided to cut off their arm. Now that the government gave them a wedge issue, an they have won seats off it, we will be able to see if they will adapt into a national force or collapse from poor structural foundations (FvD).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just when you thought Dutch politics couldn't get anymore ridiculous. Amazing stuff.

Do you think BBB can be considered a CDA splinter?

That's what they were until the CDA decided to cut off their arm. Now that the government gave them a wedge issue, an they have won seats off it, we will be able to see if they will adapt into a national force or collapse from poor structural foundations (FvD).

Dutch politics rarely gets boring...

[Logical]

Everyone's favorite Calvinist theocracy of Urk:
SGP 40.5% (+0.1)
BBB 29% (New)
CU 7.9% (-9.4)
PVV 6.6% (-6.4)
FVD 5.2% (-12.4)
CDA 4.4% (-4.1)
Localist 3.4% (New)

Every other party below 1%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everyone's favorite Calvinist theocracy of Urk:
SGP 40.5% (+0.1)
BBB 29% (New)
CU 7.9% (-9.4)
PVV 6.6% (-6.4)
FVD 5.2% (-12.4)
CDA 4.4% (-4.1)
Localist 3.4% (New)

Every other party below 1%

I say this is a wonderful CDA performance (compared to Overijssel). At least they didn't lose a majority of their votes!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

BBB won 58.8% of the vote in rural Tubbergen, Overijssel. Complete bloodbath for every other party. CDA lost three quarters of their vote in their former stronghold, down to 11% from 42%.

Turnout increased by 16% (up from 60 to 76)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Roermond, Limburg

BBB
2.764
12,9%
0
0,0%
+12,9%.

CDA
2.337
10,9%
2.732
12,6%
−1,7%.

D66
2.310
10,8%
2.501
11,5%
−0,7%.

GROENLINKS
2.297
10,7%
2.822
13,0%
−2,3%.

ChristenUnie
2.222
10,4%
549
2,5%
+7,9%.

Interesting to see the vote so divided.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What is this new party? The "BBB"?

[Zinneke]

What is this new party? The "BBB"?

Its a front for the various big corporatist farmer interests that organised the farmers protests. It adopts classic center-periphery cleavage issues and some standard populism/anti-political sentiment to boost its cause but fundamentally its the equivalent of an extremely successful psy-op that relies on a caricature of a Dutch farmer to motivate people to vote for it. Some of their defenders will say they are centre-right populist but they have some genuinely unhinged policies like wanting to imprison scientists who selectively choose data (which makes me laugh as someone who has had dealings with the farming and chemical industries in the EU lobbying arena - for them selective facts are a way of life).

Honestly, putting myself in conservative shoes, i would still be dissapointed that JA21 didn't replace the old FvD vote like for like. At least JA21 have a coherent ideological plan that goes beyond ''love big agri, fck Randstad''. BBB became a fad because the farmer protests were the new omnipresent issue that the mainstream media loved to report on (a similar obsession with Baudet helped him too) and to their credit the upside down flags, the protests, etc have all been consistent enough to make the environmental standards debate a big cleavage issue.

[DL]

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

[DavidB.]

BBB now at 16 (instead of 15) in last Senate projection. ChristenUnie get two, a loss of 1 from the previous projection and 2 compared to the current Senate.

- Voter flowcharts compared to the 2021 parliamentary election can be found here, quite interesting: https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/ps2023/kiezersbewegingen/.
- All maps here: https://nos.nl/collectie/13923/artikel/2467604-bekijk-hier-alle-uitslagen-van-de-provinciale-statenverkiezingen.

Will post more stats later.