🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (user search)
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Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 68935 times)
DavidB.
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« on: January 10, 2022, 08:21:13 AM »
« edited: November 22, 2023, 10:00:58 PM by DavidB. »

EDIT JULY 17, 2023: Description of parties participating in the November 22, 2023 election here and onwards.

-----
New government, new thread. After the longest formation ever, the Netherlands has a new government consisting of VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie - just like last time. Rutte-IV was sworn in today (without Deputy PM Sigrid Kaag: as Freek said in the previous thread, she tested positive for Covid):



Prime Minister - Mark Rutte (VVD). Set to become the longest serving Prime Minister during his new term. Utterly remarkable how he managed to survive politically after April.
Finance Minister - Sigrid Kaag (D66). Will also be Deputy Prime Minister. Was a senior career diplomat at the UN, Minister for Foreign Trade & Development Cooperation and later Minister of Foreign Affairs in the previous government. Had to resign over the mishandling of the Afghanistan evacuations. Was rumored not to be interested in the Finance Ministry, but Finance Ministers tend to be very popular and this matters in the next election. Kaag will be the Netherlands' first female Finance Minister.
Foreign Affairs Minister - Wopke Hoekstra (CDA). Will also be Deputy Prime Minister. Former McKinsey partner, Senator and Finance Minister. Party leaders serving at Foreign Affairs has been a historically unfortunate combination. But apparently he wanted to do it anyway. Foreign Affairs is a position in which he can come across as "statesmanlike", which matters for the next election.
Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation - Liesje Schreinemacher (VVD). Member of the European Parliament, former barrister, former political assistant to then Defense minister Jeanine Hennis. Rather young and unexperienced - one of the surprises of the new government.
Minister for Poverty Reduction, Participation, and Pensions - Carola Schouten (ChristenUnie). Will also be Deputy Prime Minister. The former Minister for Agriculture will now be serving at this new government position, which suits the ChristenUnie well and reflects a broader sense in The Hague that more should be done to combat growing poverty and debt problems.
Minister of Justice and Security - Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius (VVD). Former MP and (briefly) Deputy Minister of Climate and Energy. One of the rising stars of the VVD. Daughter of Turkish/Kurdish refugees who were human rights advocates. First minister at this very difficult department without a law degree.
Minister for Legal Protection - Franc Weerwind (D66). Mayor of Almere, former mayor of Velsen. Was the first black mayor of a big city. Will be the second black minister after Abraham George Ellis in 1903 (!). But no legal background.
Minister of Public Health, Welfare and Sports - Prof Dr Ernst Kuipers (D66). Medical expert in the field of gastroenterology. Chairman on the board of the Erasmus Medical Center. Chairman of the National Network Urgent Healthcare - and therefore already known to the public due to his role during the Covid pandemic.
Minister for Long-Term Care and Sports - Conny Helder (VVD). Has been on the board of big healthcare organizations.
Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate - Micky Adriaansens (VVD). Senator and top consultant for TwynstraGudde.
Minister for Climate and Energy - Rob Jetten (D66). Former D66 parliamentary group leader and interim party leader who stepped aside for Kaag to take over. Architect of D66' recent electoral success by shifting the party's focus further to the issue of climate change. Will now be at this new ministry and fight with Adriaansens over the primacy at this "super-ministry". Will also be responsible for building new nuclear power plants, which he used to oppose.
Minister of Education, Culture and Science - Prof Dr Robbert Dijkgraaf (D66). Theoretical physicist and string theorist. Director of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton University, U.S. Former president of the Royal Dutch Academy of Science. Will start off with a lot of credit in academia as "one of their own", but education ministers tend to become unpopular with the "grassroots" rather quickly. Dijkgraaf's advantage: a bazooka with 5 billion euros to invest structually. He will also be responsible for re-introducing student grants.
Minister for Primary and Secondary Education - Dennis Wiersma (VVD). Another young VVD rising star. Former MP and now acting Deputy Minister of Social Affairs.
Minister of Defense - Kajsa Ollongren (D66). Former career bureaucrat. No background in Defense whatsoever. Mostly known for a very bad stint as Minister of Interior Affairs where she abolished the referendum and became one of the most unpopular ministers. Another low point of hers was flashing her notes during the formation, leaking sensitive information leading to the big formation stalemate. Her return in the government is somewhat of a surprise.
Minister of Interior Affairs and Kingdom Relations- Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA). Former MP (2010-2019), officer in the armed forces, and hockey player. Becomes minister at a position that has been stripped of almost all its duties over the last years. Biggest question: what will she be doing with her time?
Minister for Public Housing and Urban Planning - Hugo de Jonge (CDA). The former CDA leader and current acting Deputy Prime Minister and Public Health Minister gets another chance in the government, this time at a position that is perhaps less polarizing. Will now be responsible for building 100,000 houses annually. Let's see how he handles this...
Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management - Mark Harbers (VVD). MP and former Deputy Minister of Immigration & Asylum who had to resign in that capacity. Rutte loyalist at a perennial VVD position. Will hopefully sabotage the rollout of the pay-per-use car tax system, but I won't hold my breath.
Minister for Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality - Henk Staghouwer (ChristenUnie). Had never heard of the guy. Is apparently on the Groningen provincial government. Is bound to become really unpopular within the agricultural sector really soon. Frankly don't understand why the ChristenUnie accepted this ministry again.
Minister for Nature and Nitrogens - Christianne van der Wal (VVD). VVD party chairwoman and member of the provincial government in Gelderland. Rutte loyalist. Will be responsible for rolling out the government's nitrogen reduction agenda.
Minister of Social Affairs and Labor Participation - Karien van Gennip (CDA). Former McKinsey consultant, MP and Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs. Afterwards held positions at ING Bank and in the healthcare business.

Half of the 20 ministers are women (interestingly, only the D66 delegation will not be 50% female; of the VVD ministers, 5 out of 8 are women). The team has been thoroughly reshuffled, with very few faces from Rutte-III - but while there are many new faces, most of them are known as long-term party loyalists.

Deputy ministers:
Eric van den Burg (VVD) - Asylum and Migration (at the ministry of Justice and Security)
Alexandra van Huffelen (D66) - Kingdom Relations and Digitalization (at the ministry of Interior Affairs and Kingdom Relations)
Gunay Uslu (D66) - Culture and Media (at the ministry of Education, Culture and Sciences)
Marnix van Rij (CDA) - Taxes (at Finance)
Aukje de Vries (VVD) - Tax Credits and Customs (at Finance)
Christophe van der Maat (VVD) - Defense
Vivianne Heijnen  (CDA) - Infrastructure and Water Management
Hans Vijlbrief (D66) - Mines (at Economic Affairs and Climate)
Maarten van Ooijen (ChristenUnie) - Youth and Prevention (at Public Health)

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DavidB.
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2022, 05:27:48 AM »

Was D66 as a whole previously anti-nuclear energy or was this just Jetten's position?
They weren’t officially “opposed” (like GL) but in practice they were (kept pushing against nuclear and kept voting against it), because they argued it would be too expensive. I’ve never been quite sure whether that argument was completely sincere or whether they were actually opposed in principle but didn’t feel like even having that debate - I’m guessing the latter, or at least a bit of both. Jetten’s position was the same as his party’s.

What probably helped in D66 making concessions on this issue is public opinion being quite strongly in favor of nuclear energy and D66 competitors Volt being outspokenly pro-nuclear, which seems to be a popular position especially among younger voters. CU had a similar position to D66 but was probably more easily convinced (I guess because their “it’s too expensive” stance was their actual stance and the new government is spending like crazy anyway).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2022, 08:22:58 AM »

Yes, that’s exactly what I wrote - that GL is opposed based on principles while D66 was “semi-opposed” due to financial and other reasons. And on the D66 website you link to (“Nuclear energy: not now”) they talk about the costs. So what exactly isn’t correct? Our “disagreement” seems entirely about semantics. Jetten will be responsible for “taking the necessary steps to build two nuclear power plants” instead of “building two power plants”? Yeah, no one thought he’d be building them himself or that this process would be fully finished within one term.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2022, 11:43:26 AM »

Some other news: as expected Jan Paternotte will lead the D66 parliamentary group in parliament. Paternotte has been in parliament since 2017 and was on the Amsterdam city council before (2010-2017). He gained national attention by being the biggest proponent of the introduction of a 2G system, in which events, restaurants, "non-essential stores" and other places would only be accessible to people who are vaccinated or have recovered from Covid-19. It was already clear that Sophie Hermans would lead the VVD parliamentary group and Pieter Heerma the CDA. Gert-Jan Segers (CU) is the only government party leader who remains in parliament - he will lead the CU parliamentary group again.

In Rotterdam, the SP have decided not to run in the local election on March 16, increasing the possibility that Socialists 010 - who were kicked out of the SP for being members of youth organization ROOD and/or some communist subgroups and started their own party - get elected to the local council. Pretty incredible that the SP voluntarily choose not to run in the biggest "working class city" of the country.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2022, 07:40:07 AM »

This evening Health Minister Ernst Kuipers (D66) will have his first Covid press conference, together with PM Rutte (VVD). The expectation is that the lockdown will be slightly eased from tomorrow onwards: gyms and barber shops will reopen, non-essential stores will reopen but making an appointment in advance will be necessary, and amateur sports will be allowed again. No certainty about the cultural sector yet.

Pressure on the government to end the lockdown has been mounting over the last week, with public support for the lockdown waning: the reason for the new total lockdown was scenarios for Omikron in December which clearly ended up way too pessimistic. Shops in several municipalities said they would reopen on Saturday regardless of what happened and multiple municipalities said they would stop enforcing the lockdown - some local governments (and the province of Overijssel) wrote a letter to the national government to urge them to end the lockdown. Shop owners close to the border are particularly angry: they see their customers drive just across the border to shop in Germany or Belgium, where almost everything is open.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2022, 01:38:29 PM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 01:43:48 PM by DavidB. »

- Contrary to what was leaked to the media, "non-essential" stores will open again tomorrow without appointments being necessary. They still have to close at 5 PM, in line with the "evening lockdown" regulations that came into force in November before the total lockdown.

- Non-medical contact professions, such as barbers, beauty salons and sex workers, will open again (but have to close at 5 too).

- In-person education will open again. Masks will be mandatory everywhere, including during classes.

- Indoor sports venues (such as gyms) will reopen. A QR code (3G: vaccination, recovery or negative test) will be mandatory again.

- Engaging in indoor trainings for cultural purposes (including music) will be allowed again.

- Restaurants, bars, events, museums, and sports stadiums remain closed. Professional football clubs threaten to open up their stadiums to the public because they lose so much money due to the forced closings. Restaurants and bars will be doing the same tomorrow.

- The mask mandate will be expanded: they now have to be worn at more places - apparently they will be "advised" for outdoor use too in crowded areas - and will from now on have to be medical masks. Doesn't necessarily mean FFP2, but cloth masks will no longer be allowed. [Mask use has already gone down markedly, so good luck with this.]

- Quarantine rules will be eased for those having had a "booster" vaccination or those who recently recovered from Covid.

- The new government will continue to push for 2G. This legislation still has to pass parliament, but debates have been delayed, partly over new considerations regarding the spread of Omikron among the vaccinated and Omikron being less dangerous.

- The government intends to present a long-term plan "to learn to live with the virus" by the end of the month. Some ideas leaked were absolutely monstrous, with summer holidays being much shorter for the coming years, winter holidays being much longer, remote working becoming the standard every winter, and 2G/masks becoming mandatory almost everywhere - essentially perpetuating the "new normal" but without lockdowns. Let's pray it doesn't move in that direction...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2022, 11:12:36 AM »

1Vandaag poll: 62% think the government should have opened up society further. 42% support some restrictions but think the government didn't go far enough in ending the lockdown; 20% want to end all Covid restrictions. 22% think the government's approach is adequate while 12% think the government has gone too far in opening up the country.

47% are worried about Covid, compared to 60% on December 21st and 72% on November 30th. Since the first lockdown, this percentage was only lower in June 2021 (42%) and in September 2021 (41%).

Support for the new rules is as follows:

Engaging in sports outside allowed again (without supporters) - 88%
Contact professions (barbers etc.) opening again - 87%
Higher education opening again - 87%
Non-essential stores opening again until 5PM - 81%
Engaging in sports inside allowed again (with 3G QR code) - 77%
Hosting a maximum of 4 visitors per day inside in your home (up from 2) - 60%
Maximum group size of 4 people outside (up from 2) - 50%
Non-essential venues (such as theme parks, football stadiums etc.) remain closed - 32%
Restaurants and bars remain closed - 20%
Cultural sector remains closed - 17%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2022, 06:02:01 PM »

Peil poll Jan 23 (seats compared to GE21):

VVD 23 (-11)
D66 18 (-6)
PVV 17 (nc)
JA21 11 (+8)
Volt 10 (+7)
PvdA 9 (nc)
GroenLinks 9 (+1)
PvdD 9 (+3)
SP 8 (-1)
FVD 7 (-1)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 6 (-9)
ChristenUnie 6 (+1)
SGP 4 (+1)
DENK 3 (nc)
BIJ1 1 (nc)
BVNL 1 (+1)
50Plus 1 (nc)

Coalition at only 53 seats and -25. VVD are probably mostly bleeding votes to JA21 (the type of people that voted FVD in 2019, came home for the VVD in GE21 because they think Rutte is a safe pair of hands but now think the coalition agreement is too left-wing), CDA to BBB (voters who are angry the CDA essentially kicked out people like Omtzigt and Keijzer), and D66 to Volt (younger voters).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2022, 03:59:06 PM »

From tomorrow onward lockdown will end; restaurants, gyms, cultural venues, sports stadiums etc. etc. will get to open their doors again. Until 10 PM, that is, and with 3G policy, and big events (>1250 people) can only take place outside and at 1/3 of maximum capacity, with 1.5 meters distance.

With these changes, the government is moving further towards public opinion as a whole. According to an 1Vandaag poll, 42% now think the government's decisions are appropriate, while 40% think society should have been opened up even further. 13% think the government is too quick in opening up society. The cultural sector and professional football clubs have already complained, arguing that organizing shows at less than full capacity and only until 10 isn't viable (culture) and that football games at 1/3 capacity will add to clubs' financial misery.

Meanwhile, the VVD is in hot water over having Soumaya Sahla, who was convicted and jailed for preparing a terror attack and "repented" afterwards, as a national security advisor. The VVD had attacked Wilders for tweeting "A VVD member with a Turkish background at [the Ministry of] Justice. Now I have to hope she will not cancel my security because of course they would like me to disappear six feet under" about VVD Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz, a rather bizarre tweet considering Yesilgöz is about the most liberal person you can think of: a completely assimilated non-Muslim married to a Jewish man. But Wilders struck back by attacking the VVD for working with Sahla, who has been close to former VVD leader Frits Bolkestein (known as tough on immigration and law and order) for years. This had long been known to those following politics closely, but not to the bigger public. The PR mistake the VVD made here was very simple: Sahla should have given a big interview in VVD newspaper De Telegraaf earlier on, explaining to the world what she had learned in prison, how she deradicalized, and how she aims to use her experience to make the Netherlands more resilient. There would have been a general amount of understanding that isn't there now that Wilders got to dictate the terms on which she became known to the public. In any case, Wilders got the attention he needs now that he has to compete for it with FVD (who have issue ownership over opposing Covid restrictions, an increasingly popular position) and JA21 (who are seen as the "reasonable voice" to the right of the VVD). Meanwhile, parliamentary debates are derailing more and more often, and ministers receive a lot of death threats - last week two people were convicted to jail time for standing in Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag's front yard with a torch. Scary stuff and it all fits within the pattern of Dutch democracy turning into a pressure cooker, where ordinary people think parliament is crazy and the government is corrupt. Not good.

Wilders' tweet:

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DavidB.
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2022, 05:59:10 PM »

What is PVdB’s stance on the lockdowns?
PvdD or PvdA?

PvdD support some restrictions that pertain to everyone, but are very critical of - and do not support - measures such as 3G and 2G, because they see no merit in it. They prefer focusing on the (presumed) zoonotic origin of the virus (which would illustrate the need of a very different approach toward animals in our society, not anymore as a "product"), on its global transmission through people flying (which they think should be restricted), on prevention, and on increasing the capacity of the healthcare system.

PvdA are a party for the olds and have been one of the most reliable supporters of the government's policies, including 3G and the lockdowns. At times they have even been advocating for more restrictive measures than the government, such as when the government finally ended the winter lockdown (including evening curfew) in April 2021 but the PvdA opposed lifting these restrictions.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2022, 06:33:25 PM »

Can this opposition to the harsh lockdowns be the primary reason they are rising in the polls?
Difficult to say because there's not been any polling on this, but yes, they are - together with the SP, but they're currently a mess, and they're less critical than PvdD - the only left-wing party relatively critical of the lockdowns, and there are left-wingers who are critical of the restrictions, and this could be one of the reasons why they are gaining in the polls.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2022, 07:40:19 PM »

^ This is one of the reasons why most parties agreed that it was necessary to reintroduce the Ministry for Urban Planning this time around. Indeed staggering.

-

1,5 month until local elections. Here's an I&O poll for Amsterdam. That CDA figure... lol.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2022, 10:05:56 AM »

If you had to describe Volt's political position, how would you describe it aside from being pro-european federalism?
Almost indistinguishable from D66.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2022, 08:04:54 PM »

^ This is one of the reasons why most parties agreed that it was necessary to reintroduce the Ministry for Urban Planning this time around. Indeed staggering.

-

1,5 month until local elections. Here's an I&O poll for Amsterdam. That CDA figure... lol.


I like how CU is doing better than CDA in Amsterdam.
I have no idea what type of person would still vote CDA in Amsterdam apart from some very old people. Meanwhile, CU enjoys some support among black Christian communities. Former CU council member Don Ceder, who won the first ever (and only) seat for CU Amsterdam in 2018 and held it until being elected to parliament last year, is of Ghanaian and black Surinamese descent himself.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2022, 09:08:54 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2022, 10:07:29 AM by DavidB. »

- Almost all Covid restrictions were scrapped yesterday; the use of the 3G QR pass was abolished. Only restrictions remaining are the mask mandate on public transportation (expect this to be abolished soon too) and on airports, and a new, 1G testing requirement for everyone (including vaccinated and recovered people) in indoor venues wth 500+ people without people being assigned seats (think nightclubs). These tests are free of charge. Within 1 month we went from total lockdown to near total freedom.

- Almost all parties agree with the government in its tough approach toward Russia following its invasion in Ukraine. Geert Wilders, who went on RT and visited Russian parliament a couple years ago, condemned the invasion too. Only Forum for Democracy disagree, claiming the West is at fault and the Netherlands should reconsider its NATO membership. Quite unbelievable stuff.

- Following a new wave of #MeToo accusations (which started with a rapper, a singer and Ajax sports director Marc Overmars), PvdA MP Gijs van Dijk resigned and today, Volt kicked out MP Nilüfer Gündogan from its parliamentary group over some thirteen allegations of misconduct, both sexual and non-sexual (intimidation, abuse of power position). Gündogan disagrees and has sued Volt - the court case will take place on Tuesday. She will remain in parliament in any case, meaning that there will be a record of 20 parliamentary groups, each entitled to speaking time in every debate. After Van Haga's three man splitoff from FVD and Omtzigt's departure from the CDA, this will be the third splitoff not even a year after the election. For Volt, who have managed the situation in a very amateuristic way from a PR point of view, this is a painful affair. They were doing very well in the polls and expected to make big gains in next month's local elections. Not party leader Laurens Dassen but Gündogan was easily the most visible Volt MP.



- Local elections will take place in a month. Local parties - already by far the biggest political force with about a third of local seats - are set to gain even more ground. CDA, GroenLinks and SP are expected to lose.

Some polls from the two biggest cities:

Amsterdam (conducted in January, pre-Volt scandal; comparison with last election):
GroenLinks 15% (-5), D66 13% (-3%), Volt 12% (new), PvdA 10% (-1%), VVD 9% (-2%), JA21 8% (new, but present on the council with 2 FVD splitoff seats), PvdD 8% (+1%), BIJ1 5% (+3%), SP 4% (-4%), DENK 3% (-4%), Elderly Party 3% (+1%), FVD 2% (-4%), CDA 2% (-1%), ChristenUnie 2% (-).

Here the biggest party is going to matter for the formation. D66 can be expected to win over people who previously intended to vote for Volt and I think they will top the poll here, with quite a bit of backlash against GL's record as leading party in a left-leaning coalition consisting of D66, PvdA and SP. The coalition will probably lose its majority and I don't expect this left-wing experiment to be continued.

Rotterdam (conducted Feb 20): Leefbaar Rotterdam 23% (+2%), D66 11% (+1%), VVD 9% (-1%), GroenLinks 7% (-3%), PvdA 7% (-3%), DENK 7% (-), Volt 6% (new), PvdD 5% (+1%), BIJ1 4% (new), ChristenUnie-SGP 3% (-), CDA 3% (-2%), FVD 2% (new), SP 2% (-3%), Socialists 010 2% (new; the people kicked out from the SP), 50Plus 1% (-2%).

What's interesting here is whether Leefbaar will be back in the government. Last time they were excluded (their alliance with FVD, who were riding high in the polls back then, played a major role here) and an "anti-Leefbaar" coalition of VVD, D66, GL, PvdA, CDA and CU-SGP was formed. Now this alliance doesn't exist anymore, with former Leefbaar leader Joost Eerdmans now being the leader of JA21 in parliament and Robert Simons having taken over Leefbaar. In 2014-2018 Leefbaar governed Rotterdam together with D66 and CDA and it wouldn't be completely unthinkable for them to return to the city government.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2022, 06:22:50 PM »

Ouch: D66 foreign affairs spokesman Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, an anti-Putin hardliner, was making jokes in a studio right before a talkshow took place about people made lots of money by "going short" on the Ukrainian economy and speculated how much he could make by "going short" on Russia. A Dutch-Ukrainian writer was present and didn't quite enjoy this while her relatives are under fire. During the formation Sjoerdsma had already invented a lie about informateur Johan Remkes, namely that he had been "acting drunk". This PR trick backfired spectacularly.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2022, 11:44:49 AM »

Local elections will take place next week on Wednesday (early voting possible on Monday and Tuesday in person, no voting by mail anymore), but everything is overshadowed by what's happening in Ukraine + what's happening with energy prices. I don't see any campaign that is really much more visible than others. If I had to guess, the current circumstances will probably help VVD (Rutte effect, safe pair of hands etc.) and D66.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2022, 06:17:52 PM »

Some more #analysis on the level you’re used to from me:

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DavidB.
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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2022, 07:24:57 AM »

Turnout at 10 AM was 0.4% in The Hague, 0.3% in Utrecht, and 0.2% in Rotterdam. I don’t think we’ll have early voting in the next election if the Covid situation is like this. Shame, because I personally find it quite convenient.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2022, 07:44:49 AM »

National turnout on Monday was 4-5% according to Ipsos. In The Hague, it was 3.3%, in Utrecht 2.5%, in Amsterdam 2.4% and in Rotterdam only 2%. Apparently not a lot of people are into early voting.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #20 on: March 16, 2022, 11:07:00 AM »

Turnout at 5PM: Rotterdam 26.1%, The Hague 30.5%, Utrecht 36.6%, Eindhoven 28.3%, Groningen 36%, Nijmegen 38.5%. This includes the early vote. Turnout for the early vote (Monday and Tuesday) was about 10% nationally.

The big turnout spike always takes place after 5 PM on election day, but it does seem as if turnout is going to be a bit lower than 55% in 2018 (and 54% in 2014). It would be symbolically relevant if it actually ends up lower than 50%. Not too surprising, though, as the campaign (that never became one) was completely overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.
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DavidB.
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E: 0.58, S: 4.26


« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2022, 05:59:36 PM »

Final result in Rotterdam - with abysmal turnout of 38.9% (-7.8%): Leefbaar Rotterdam 21.3 (+0.8 ), VVD 10.2 (-0.5), GroenLinks 9.1 (-0.7), D66 9 (-0.9), PvdA 8.9 (-0.8 ), DENK 8.6 (+1.3), Volt 4.8 (new), PvdD 4.2 (+0.7), BIJ1 4.1 (new), 50Plus 4 (+0.8 ), ChristenUnie 3.6 (new), SP 3.1 (-1.8 ), CDA 3 (-1.7), FVD 2.5 (new) - below threshold but above 1%: Jong Rotterdam 1.1% and Socialists 010 1%.

Results here: https://nos.nl/artikel/2421425-eerste-uitslagen-bekend-bekijk-hier-alle-uitslagen-van-de-verkiezingen
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DavidB.
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Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2022, 06:26:40 PM »

Amsterdam isn't fully in yet, but the PvdA seem to have made big gains (their leader Marjolein Moorman is popular) and go from 5 to 10 seats to become the biggest party in the capital again; because of this, the current left-wing coalition (GL, D66, PvdA, SP) renews its majority against all odds. The SP aren't even needed for a new coalition. PvdA-GL-D66 now the most likely coalition option.
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DavidB.
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E: 0.58, S: 4.26


« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2022, 05:35:08 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2022, 05:55:29 PM by DavidB. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 »

Main takeaways of the election:

1. Low turnout
Only 50.8% of eligible voters turned out - an all-time low for local elections. Rotterdam (38.9%), Almere (39.8%) and Tilburg (40%) were among the 100.000+ cities with the worst turnout, but The Hague (43%) and Amsterdam (46.5%, may still increase a little as only 95% of the votes are counted) didn't do a lot better. According to the Ipsos exit poll, more voters than usual didn't turn out because they simply didn't know who to vote for. The lack of attention for the local elections due to the Ukraine war probably played a role here.

2. Big gains for local parties
From 28.6% to 36.2%: local parties won almost everywhere, at the expense of "national" parties. Local parties can have any signature or none at all: from left-wing to right-wing and from progressive to conservative to "pragmatic". By visualizing the biggest party we can already see some of the extent of these gains, though in many places there are multiple local parties.

Biggest party in 2018 (yellow = local parties). Still somewhat of a mixed picture:
https://imgur.com/LcSqom0
Biggest party in 2022 (orange = local parties). Local parties overwhelmingly strongest political force:
https://imgur.com/wPWeJK2

3. Stable picture in terms of national parties
Contrary to the exit polls for some cities, in which GL seemed to gain quite a lot, the picture was rather stable for the national parties. Contrary to the Kantar polls which showed big VVD gains, the liberals actually lost quite some seats across the board. For the CDA this happened too, as expected. Still, the VVD is again the biggest "national" party locally while the CDA won the most seats (they do better in small municipalities that relatively elect more seats compared to bigger municipalities when accounting for their size). GL and D66 lost a little (with D66 expecting to make more gains and GL holding up remarkably well - coming first in Utrecht and for the first time in D66 stronghold Leiden is an important feat), PvdA gained 3 seats (from 555 to 558) and had a much more mixed picture across the board than you'd expect just thinking of the result in Amsterdam. Given that their 2018 result was quite awful, this isn't really good news for the social democrats. The SP lost more than a third of its seats. While its split off youth members failed to win seats anywhere, the conflict has badly hurt the SP image and doubtlessly cost them votes. SGP and especially PvdD made small but important gains.

4. Increased fragmentation
We have 19/20 (depending on the result of the Gundogan saga) political groups in parliament, which is crazy - and local councils are starting to look more and more the same. With Volt, PvdD, PVV and now also FVD gaining a lot of seats across the country, local councils will now often have more than 10 political groups. In the capital of Noord-Brabant, Den Bosch, 16 parties managed to get elected, 7 of those with only 1 seat ("Bosch' Interest", PVV, "Simply Driven", PvdD, Volt, "For Den Bosch", 50Plus). Maastricht, Limburg's capital, will also have 16 parties on the council, 6 with 1 seat (PVV, "Courage", 50Plus, the Socially Active Citizen Party, the Liberal Party Maastricht and FVD).

FVD stood in 50 municipalities and gained 1 seat almost everywhere, with exceptions (2 seats) in Velsen, Almere, Lelystad and its best result in Hoogeveen (7.1%). They failed to get in in Utrecht, but managed to gain seats in Rotterdam and The Hague. In Amsterdam, the only place where they stood in 2018, they lost two seats compared to 2018 and won only 1. JA21 only stood in Amsterdam and won two seats for Annabel Nanninga and Kevin Kreuger, who were elected for FVD last time and split off in 2020. Another FVD splitoff, BVNL ("Interest of the Netherlands", but also something like "Netherlands Ltd" - a BV is the most common legal form of a private company) led by Wybren van Haga, managed to gain seats in more than 10 municipalities too. The PVV stood for the first time in a couple of its (economically deprived) heartland municipalities such as Heerlen (10.2%), Westerwolde (12.3%) and made gains in places like Pekela (15.9%, +3.3%) that weren't part of the PVV's initial base, but have strongly shifted toward Wilders after the PvdA's selling out to the VVD in Rutte-II. The PVV lost a little in most other places, though. Volt won seats in some bigger cities but lost a lot of their "projected gains" previously projected by the polls due to the Gundogan affair.

All maps (for parties + change maps) can be found here:
https://verkiezingensite.nl/

Some interesting municipalities:
- In the Rotterdam suburb of Barendrecht (population about 50k), local party Echt voor Barendrecht (EVB) had won 14 out of 29 seats last time. All other parties - VVD, CDA, PvdA, D66, GroenLinks, ChristenUnie/SGP - decided to exclude them and form a coalition instead. Voters didn't like it one bit and gave EVB 20 out of 29 seats with 59.6% of the vote this time.
- In Zeewolde, tech multinational Meta (Facebook etc.) aims to build a controversial data center that will use a crazy amount of energy. Locals oppose it but the previous local council voted for it, pressured by lobbyists and with some shady, corrupt-seeming practices. The only two parties opposing the data center, Leefbaar Zeewolde (45.5%, +19%) and ChristenUnie (22.3%, +7.9%) made massive gains, will form a coalition, and will try to prevent the data center from being built.
- The eastern, very rural municipality of Tubbergen is usually the single best municipality for the CDA, both in local and in national elections. But the CDA mistreating Pieter Omtzigt (who is from the region) + farmers largely thinking the CDA betrayed them and now supporting BBB nationally has taken its toll. In a perfect storm, the CDA lost its absolute majority (29.3%, -32%).
- Coalition formation in Rotterdam will be a nightmare. Leefbaar Rotterdam has been the biggest party for two decades now, but was excluded by most other parties last time - instead, VVD, D66, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA and CU/SGP formed a coalition. But they lost their majority (20/45 seats) while Leefbaar even gained some ground and kept their 11 seats. None of SP, PvdD, Volt, BIJ1, DENK, or FVD seem logical candidates for the previous coalition to "add" to the city government. But any cooperation with Leefbaar will also be very difficult for any party to the left of the CDA, and the council continues to lean left. I ultimately think it will be an option with Leefbaar, but interesting for sure...

Psychologically quite a big boost for them, I presume?
Absolutely, though it won't erase their mediocre performance nationwide. Above all, this will probably boost Marjolein Moorman's career. It will be interesting to see what she will do differently compared to the previous city government, in which GL - as biggest party - was also held responsible for things that went wrong much more than the other parties, which should serve as a warning.
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DavidB.
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Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2022, 06:22:01 AM »

Are there any embarrassed retrospectives on that Ukrainian referendum a few years back?
The intellectual level of the public debate in the Netherlands is far too low for something like this to happen, and the extent to which "opinion makers" are stuck in the trenches far too high. I personally deeply regret voting against the Association Agreement but haven't seen this sentiment voiced anywhere in the media. (Though 90% of those who get a say in the media probably supported the Association Agreement to begin with.)
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