🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Renske Leijten (SP) has announced she will resign as an MP coming Tuesday. In parliament since 2006, Leijten was one of the leading voices on healthcare and one of the three MPs (together with Pieter Omtzigt, formerly CDA, and Farid Azarkan, DENK) that worked tirelessly to uncover the childcare benefit scandal and its magnitude, over which the previous government resigned. She is leaving on good terms with the SP and has always remained loyal to the leadership - even if she is arguably more important than party leader Lilian Marijnissen - but her departure will massively contribute to the SP's descent into further irrelevancy and invisibility.

[DavidB.]

Rutte is threatening to collapse the government if other parties do not agree with tightening immigration policies regarding the family reunification of war refugees. Would be a political master stroke. BBB doesn’t have the candidates. GL-PvdA aren’t ready, and their dream candidate Timmermans will still be in Brussels until next year. D66 has collapsed in the polls. JA21 and PVV would lose firepower if the VVD act tough on immigration. It would make all the sense in the world for Rutte to call it now and call it over this issue. I suppose the election would then take place in September. But so far negotiations are still taking place. The proposed changes in policy are unacceptable to CU and D66, but Rutte would have a majority for them in parliament together with CDA and the right-wing opposition. However, that would probably mean the end of the government.

[Earthling]

Rutte is threatening to collapse the government if other parties do not agree with tightening immigration policies regarding the family reunification of war refugees. Would be a political master stroke. BBB doesn’t have the candidates. GL-PvdA aren’t ready, and their dream candidate Timmermans will still be in Brussels until next year. D66 has collapsed in the polls. JA21 and PVV would lose firepower if the VVD act tough on immigration. It would make all the sense in the world for Rutte to call it now and call it over this issue. I suppose the election would then take place in September. But so far negotiations are still taking place. The proposed changes in policy are unacceptable to CU and D66, but Rutte would have a majority for them in parliament together with CDA and the right-wing opposition. However, that would probably mean the end of the government.

According to the polls at the moment there is no way to any stable government. Any possible coalition will need at least five parties in order to get to a majority. And there will be parties within that coalition that are hardly reliable partners (BBB, PVV, Volt) or are not in a good place at the moment (CDA, D66).

Also, I doubt many right wing voters will fall for this obvious play by the VVD anyway. Rutte is not seen as trustworthy. Not by the left but also not by the right.

[DavidB.]

I agree. But that difficulty of building a coalition is likely to remain. The only difference will be that opponents (Timmermans, BBB) will be more ready. But it is true: if the VVD now make this government collapse, it will be almost impossible for Rutte to govern with any party to the left of the CDA. It’s a massive gamble. But there is no better issue better for him to let the government collapse on than asylum and immigration.

[Death of a Salesman]

What would a victory look like for Rutte here?

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Parties to the right of VVD are polling at between 18 and 21 seats, but FvD is unreasonable and BVNL is tiny. A six-party coalition with PVV would be the only reasonable majority. VVD and CDA have worked with PVV before, but it didn't go over too well. Yet that would be the only possible coalition unless the center-right has a massive surge.

To the best of my knowledge, this would be the first ALDE-ID coalition on a national level. The Finns Party was in ID, but they moved to ECR before the election.

[S019]

What would a victory look like for Rutte here?

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Parties to the right of VVD are polling at between 18 and 21 seats, but FvD is unreasonable and BVNL is tiny. A six-party coalition with PVV would be the only reasonable majority. VVD and CDA have worked with PVV before, but it didn't go over too well. Yet that would be the only possible coalition unless the center-right has a massive surge.

I don't think the VVD would call a snap election to play second fiddle which would probably mean no coalition with the BBB unless the VVD vote rose significantly higher than where it is right now. As for a victory, I think it would mean placing ahead of at least one of BBB or PvdA/GL, which would give him a feasible path to form a government. Ideally, he would want to place ahead of both, but who knows if that will happen. My opinion is that calling an election now is a mistake as I don't think the BBB is going to maintain its current heights forever.

To the best of my knowledge, this would be the first ALDE-ID coalition on a national level. The Finns Party was in ID, but they moved to ECR before the election.

It has happened in Estonia when the Estonian Centre Party (ALDE) was in coalition with EKRE (ID) from 2019 to 2021.

[Death of a Salesman]

What would a victory look like for Rutte here?

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Parties to the right of VVD are polling at between 18 and 21 seats, but FvD is unreasonable and BVNL is tiny. A six-party coalition with PVV would be the only reasonable majority. VVD and CDA have worked with PVV before, but it didn't go over too well. Yet that would be the only possible coalition unless the center-right has a massive surge.

I don't think the VVD would call a snap election to play second fiddle which would probably mean no coalition with the BBB unless the VVD vote rose significantly higher than where it is right now. As for a victory, I think it would mean placing ahead of at least one of BBB or PvdA/GL, which would give him a feasible path to form a government. Ideally, he would want to place ahead of both, but who knows if that will happen. My opinion is that calling an election now is a mistake as I don't think the BBB is going to maintain its current heights forever.

To the best of my knowledge, this would be the first ALDE-ID coalition on a national level. The Finns Party was in ID, but they moved to ECR before the election.

It has happened in Estonia when the Estonian Centre Party (ALDE) was in coalition with EKRE (ID) from 2019 to 2021.

BBB is polling quite well, but they're more or less a single-issue party, and that issue isn't immigration. If this election is about immigration, BBB will drop, and VVD isn't that far behind.

[Earthling]

On current polling VVD will be the largest party again, followed by BBB, PvdA/Groenlinks combination, PVV and the others.

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Is not likely to happen and it will only lead to a very unstable coalition. Even worse than the current one.
CDA is falling apart and is eaten alive by BBB as we speak.
BBB is not a strong party. Their support is a wide but narrow. And they don´t have the people to create a stable parliamentary party.
SGP is the fundamentalist Christian party. Their core values are not popular with about 90% of the public (shops closing on sundays, no abortion, no gay marriage).
JA21 might be the only stable partner of the four parties (not counting the VVD). But there are also a lot of unknows about them.

And even with all of them there is no majority within parliament. So they need to find a sixth party to fill the gap.

Look, about 70 to 75% of the voters are done with Rutte. He is not popular, is seen as a liar and untrustworthy and judged as someone who does not seem to care too much about the state of the nation. His supporters (the VVD voters) don´t mind all of that because they are not suffering from the effects of his policies.
The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.

[DavidB.]

Dutch media claim the government has indeed collapsed: https://nos.nl/artikel/2481938-bronnen-kabinet-valt-geen-akkoord-over-asielmaatregelen.

https://twitter.com/lientje1967/status/1677379950620590080

[Mike88]

So, snap elections in September?

[DavidB.]

So, snap elections in September?

Most probably. Journalists are waiting for clarification outside the government's offices. Live stream here: https://nos.nl/livestream/2481937-kijk-mee-live-beelden-uit-den-haag.

[Earthling]

So, snap elections in September?

Seems very likely. But the government still needs to give a clarification. Until that time, nothing is out the question.

[jeron]

So, snap elections in September?

Generally, it is expected it will be October or the first week of November

[Oryxslayer]

The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.

It will be interesting in this regard if precedent is predictive once more. There have been a few elections in recent memory where the voters left of VVD, those who care about influencing government rather than casting a protest or testimonial vote, find themselves congregating on the party polling the best late in the campaign. In this case that would be PvdA-Greens.

In the past though this just means Rutte has a stable coalition partner.  The BBBs present position though means there is a window for an alternative coalition,  if it is willing to accept the risk of a more wobbly base of support. That I personally suspect is just the future of Dutch politics as long as they maintain electoral rules that encourage indefinite electoral fragmentation. 

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/MarjoleinMoor/status/1677382252676669441
The first barely concealed job application for PvdA/GL leader is in. Marjolein Moorman (PvdA) is alder(wo)man for education in Amsterdam and led the PvdA in the 2022 local election there, in which they managed to become the biggest political force in the capital again after 4 years as junior partner for GL.

[DavidB.]

The Central Election Committee now states elections would probably indeed take place in the middle of November because of the summer holidays. Absolutely ridiculous - and probably dangerous for the VVD, as who knows how long the issue of immigration remains the #1 issue.

Meanwhile, Geert Wilders wants to cooperate with Rutte again, singing a radically different tune than in the years before: "We have to let go of our egos", he states. Very smart: he opens the lane to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-PVV-JA21, perhaps CDA) and I don't see how Rutte can reject this offer. By doing so, he once again occupies the space he left after 2012.

[Harlow]

Very interested to see what the electoral map will look like due to the rise of BBB (and if they can stay aloft in a national election as opposed to regional).

[Diouf]

The Central Election Committee now states elections would probably indeed take place in the middle of November because of the summer holidays.

What? How complicated can things be? What on earth should take so long compared to all other civilized countries?

[DavidB.]

The Central Election Committee now states elections would probably indeed take place in the middle of November because of the summer holidays.

What? How complicated can things be? What on earth should take so long compared to all other civilized countries?

Your questions are my questions...

The leaders of PvdA and GL announced their intention to run together. Everyone had already assumed it and nobody is surprised, but this is still a massive step.

Rutte is about to do a press conference.

[DavidB.]

Rutte: "Differences on migration cannot be bridged, I will directly send a letter of resignation on behalf of the entire government to the King tonight."

[Death of a Salesman]

On current polling VVD will be the largest party again, followed by BBB, PvdA/Groenlinks combination, PVV and the others.

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Is not likely to happen and it will only lead to a very unstable coalition. Even worse than the current one.
CDA is falling apart and is eaten alive by BBB as we speak.
BBB is not a strong party. Their support is a wide but narrow. And they don´t have the people to create a stable parliamentary party.
SGP is the fundamentalist Christian party. Their core values are not popular with about 90% of the public (shops closing on sundays, no abortion, no gay marriage).
JA21 might be the only stable partner of the four parties (not counting the VVD). But there are also a lot of unknows about them.

And even with all of them there is no majority within parliament. So they need to find a sixth party to fill the gap.

Look, about 70 to 75% of the voters are done with Rutte. He is not popular, is seen as a liar and untrustworthy and judged as someone who does not seem to care too much about the state of the nation. His supporters (the VVD voters) don´t mind all of that because they are not suffering from the effects of his policies.
The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.

If you think Rutte is going to win again and that a conservative coalition won't be formed, what do you imagine is going to happen?

BBB and CDA are working together in 5 of the 12 formed provincial executives, there's clearly no red line there.

BBB may be a flash in the pan single issue party, but that makes them more desirable as a governing partner, since by implementing their agenda you can steal their voters.

SGP is in the provincial executives of three provinces, working with BBB and VVD in all three, with CDA in two, with CU in two, and with PVV in one. None of these parties would blackball them. They wouldn't win a ban on abortion and they're not delusional enough to ask for one.

The full six party group might drop SGP or JA21, but there's no other plausible coalition with the current polls.

[DavidB.]

Rutte emphasizes the decision to pull the plug was made by all four parties and is very explicit in thanking the coalition partners for the cooperation, praises the coalition's achievements. Clearly goes for the statesmanlike line again, but this may also leave the door open to future cooperation in the most Ruttian of ways. Doesn't "frame" position of CU or D66. Probably doesn't have to - most voters agree with him.

[DavidB.]

BBB want a right-wing coalition with the SP in it. Pieter Omtzigt announced he will decide on his future in "a number of weeks".

[Earthling]

On current polling VVD will be the largest party again, followed by BBB, PvdA/Groenlinks combination, PVV and the others.

VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.

Is not likely to happen and it will only lead to a very unstable coalition. Even worse than the current one.
CDA is falling apart and is eaten alive by BBB as we speak.
BBB is not a strong party. Their support is a wide but narrow. And they don´t have the people to create a stable parliamentary party.
SGP is the fundamentalist Christian party. Their core values are not popular with about 90% of the public (shops closing on sundays, no abortion, no gay marriage).
JA21 might be the only stable partner of the four parties (not counting the VVD). But there are also a lot of unknows about them.

And even with all of them there is no majority within parliament. So they need to find a sixth party to fill the gap.

Look, about 70 to 75% of the voters are done with Rutte. He is not popular, is seen as a liar and untrustworthy and judged as someone who does not seem to care too much about the state of the nation. His supporters (the VVD voters) don´t mind all of that because they are not suffering from the effects of his policies.
The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.

If you think Rutte is going to win again and that a conservative coalition won't be formed, what do you imagine is going to happen?

BBB and CDA are working together in 5 of the 12 formed provincial executives, there's clearly no red line there.

BBB may be a flash in the pan single issue party, but that makes them more desirable as a governing partner, since by implementing their agenda you can steal their voters.

SGP is in the provincial executives of three provinces, working with BBB and VVD in all three, with CDA in two, with CU in two, and with PVV in one. None of these parties would blackball them. They wouldn't win a ban on abortion and they're not delusional enough to ask for one.

The full six party group might drop SGP or JA21, but there's no other plausible coalition with the current polls.

You are talking about provincial level. That is vastly different because many people do not care about that.

And I never said that there is a red line within either CDA or BBB about working with the other party. But a party being decimated by another party makes for a very difficult situation between the two parties. CDA will be in shambles and not eager to govern again. And BBB, like I said, is not a stable partner in any coalition because the don´t have the people to both govern and form a stable party within parliament.

I am not saying that I won´t happen. Because off course it could. But I don´t see it as likely right now. A coalition of six parties is not a stable one. And if there are parties within that coalition that are either in a very bad (CDA) or unknown place (BBB, JA21 and SGP all have no governing experience) it will make the coalition even worse.

But in the end, we don´t even no what will happen because all polls were done before the end of the current coalition. With an election somewhere in the next 4 months everything could change.
BBB could just as easily fall apart. Like I said, their support maybe wide but it´s not deep. But they could also become the biggest party.
There is Omzigt, what will he do?
Will FvD even collapse even further?
The PvdD (Animal rights Party) might become even bigger than PvdA and SP.

[Earthling]

BBB want a right-wing coalition with the SP in it. Pieter Omtzigt announced he will decide on his future in "a number of weeks".

SP is a socialist party (it´s literally their name). They are not going to be part of any economical right wing coalition.