🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Ah, thank you. Did he offer any details? You made it sound earlier like he was relatively more hesitant about ever-closer union with GL.

Before this comment it was reported that Nijboer was among those more skeptical of an "ever closer union" with GL. However, this comment could still mean anything, because he didn't elaborate and didn't use the word merger.

Attje Kuiken presented herself as a candidate too, so the PvdA parliamentary group will have an actual choice. No idea what the difference between these candidates would be policy-wise. With someone like Kathmann or Piri declaring herself candidate it would be easier to tell.

One of Kuiken's more remarkable parliamentary contributions was when she used a "black" accent while pronouncing the word "waarom" ("why") in an anti-racism debate - see 0:34 in this video. She probably hadn't been thinking about it (and perhaps realized it was a mistake the moment she said it), but the result was massively cringeworthy and Zouhair El Yassini (VVD) criticized her for it rather relentlessly, and she apologized while claiming she had never intended to do this.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And Kuiken wins.

[DavidB.]

Indeed. An NRC article confirms that Kuiken and Nijboer don't really differ in terms of poiicy, but that Kuiken's win is viewed as a win for Timmermans and Moorman. Kuiken already said that she does not consider herself an "interim leader" even though she understands there are other contenders for the leadership. She says combatting inequality is her "priority one, two and three" and that any further cooperation with GL has to be discussed within the parliamentary group and with the PvdA members first.

Another consequence of Kuiken's election is that those who filed a complaint against Gijs van Dijk, who resigned as PvdA MP over #MeToo allegations earlier this year, now refuse to cooperate with the investigation into Van Dijk's alleged misconduct. This is because they have the impression that Kuiken and Van Dijk are close to each other and, rumor has it, even had a romantic relationship. This is politically relevant because of Ploumen's resignation not just as party leader but also as an MP, which means Van Dijk can actually take up the vacant seat (instead of Mohammed Mohandis, who was already invited to cast his vote for the parliamentary group leadership following Ploumen's resignation).

[DavidB.]

Some quick updates:

- Members of PvdA (76%) and GL (80%) voted in a referendum for a joint list for the Senate next year (but not for the Provincial elections).
- A majority of VVD members voted to oppose their own minister's plans to decrease nitrogens emissions. The party is falling in the polls over a new Rutte scandal wrt transparency and (more importantly) the rising costs of living; now, for the first time in 12 years, members start rebelling too. Looking to be a hot summer with a lot of new farmers' protests - angry farmers already showed up at Minister Van der Wal's house last week.
- D66 also fell to some 13 seats in the polls over Kaag's poor handling of the MeToo scandals within her party.
- For Crabcake: PvdD has become part of two coalitions, in Groningen (with GL, PvdA and CU) and Arnhem (GL, D66, Arnhem Centraal, PvdD, PvdA, Volt).

[DavidB.]

New I&O poll with VVD -4 and BBB +4. Latter are in pole position to pull a Forum 2019 at the PS election.

[snip]
27% are satisfied with the performance of the government (-4), 68% dissatisfied (+4).
According to I&O, the main reasons for dissatisfaction are the new nitrogens regulations, inaction against rising prices/costs of living, and a general lack of action. Right-wing voters often mention the role of D66 in government policy.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/lientje1967/status/1552629628732416000

Death threats for the leader of BBB. They've decided to be more calm with upcoming media visits.

Protests currently still ongoing, and escalating.



Government approval rating is tanking (actually already started on low approval).

Some analysis i found and that i agree with:

This government was already unpopular when it started as it was a continuation of the previous Rutte III govt that collapsed over a big scandal. And then the country was without a functioning govt for a year.

Since then, D66 has lost voters to its left who think the govt is too economically right-wing and unambitious on the environment

VVD and CDA have lost many voters to their right (mostly BBB) who are unhappy over the govt's nitrogen pollution and (for the VVD) migration policies

So the govt is in a difficult place, especially on nitrogen pollution:

D66 is vulnerable to their voters who want MORE action to cut agriculture so homes can be built and nature saved

VVD/CDA are vulnerable as their voters want LESS action and are more supportive of the farmers

[DavidB.]

Today, Mark Rutte has become the longest incumbent Dutch Prime Minister in history. Now 4311 days in office, Rutte has taken the record from Ruud Lubbers (CDA), who was in office from 1982 until 1994.

[Aurelius]

Is there any chance the meteoric rise of the BBB will be here to stay, and they'll be a major party? Or are they just a flash in the pan in response to the farmer protests? Hoping for the former, of course.

[Zinneke]

Is there any chance the meteoric rise of the BBB will be here to stay, and they'll be a major party? Or are they just a flash in the pan in response to the farmer protests? Hoping for the former, of course.

They've made the CU agricultural minister resign. But I think their electoral score is obviously correlated with how pressing the farmers issue is. it really is capturing the political debate though .

[DavidB.]

Provincial elections take place in all 12 Dutch provinces next week. These are not just important because they decide the course of the provinces over the next 4 years, but also because the newly elected Provincial States will elect a new Senate in May. The new Senate will mirror the Provincial States very closely and may, depending on the result, make life for the Rutte-IV government (VVD-D66-CDA-ChristenUnie) more difficult.

1. What is the current configuration of the Senate?

The Senate has 75 seats; therefore, 38 seats are needed for a majority. In 2019, the Rutte-III government - which consisted of the same parties as the current government - lost its majority (32 seats, compared to 38 in 2015).  

After the Senate election in 2019, the configuration was as follows: Forum for Democracy 12, VVD 12, CDA 9, GroenLinks 8, D66 7, PvdA 6, PVV 5, SP 4, ChristenUnie 4, PvdD 3, 50Plus 2, SGP 2, Independent Senate Group 1.

The current configuration, however, looks different, as Forum for Democracy has disintegrated and its seats are scattered across four different political groups, the biggest of which is JA21 with 7 seats (Forum still has 1).

The government could strike deals with either of PvdA, GL or JA21 to reach 38 - one of them would suffice. In practice, they mostly struck deals with PvdA and/or GL - in 45 out of 60 cases, to be precise. Agreements with the left were mostly struck on issues regarding the environment, climate, and nitrogen emissions (more on that later). Agreements with the right were struck on issues related to combating terror and crime.

2. What is the current state of play?

- The government had a disastrous election in 2019, but will almost certainly do even worse this time. This is mostly because the CDA are projected to incur a catastrophic loss as no one in the country really knows what they stand for anymore + they essentially forced very popular MP Pieter Omtzigt out of the party + agricultural policies pursued by the government are seen as "anti-rural" and are particularly opposed by core CDA voters. However, D66 would also take a beating compared to the 2021 parliamentary election (but not compared to the 2019 Senate election). The only government party holding up well in all polls is Rutte's VVD.

- PvdA and GroenLinks are set to merge in the Senate and form one big parliamentary group. They explicitly campaign on this. They try to make the race into a 2012 redux, i.e. a clear right vs. left election, in which they end up as the biggest party. However, as happened in 2012, the likeliest outcome is that the left end up cooperating with the right. And a GL-PvdA group that is the biggest force in the Senate wouldn't be that spectacular: currently, if taken together, they are already the biggest. The question that remains: will the merger be more than the sum of its parts? Right now, this doesn't seem to be the case.

- In 2019, Forum for Democracy were the shock winner of the election. Four years later, the party has crumbled after several media storms and splitoffs. Many former FVD voters don't want to vote for a party that thinks COVID was a conspiracy and Putin is a hero. However, dissatisfaction with the government has only grown - except for the time of the pandemic period -, particularly regarding policy on agricultural and environmental matters. Enter BBB, or in English: the Farmer Citizen Movement. Caroline van der Plas entered parliament in 2021 with only one seat, but her movement is riding high in the polls. Van der Plas is charismatic, doesn't speak like a politician, and is a guest in talk show after talk show. Another new force to the right is Forum splitoff JA21, led by former Rotterdam alderman Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga, a Senator from Amsterdam, who mostly focus on immigration but aim to be more moderate and constructive than PVV/Forum. Notably, many (more?) other voters have returned to the original. Geert Wilders' PVV may double his seat count in the Senate election from 5 to 9 or 10 - basically back to his old level before there were any other parties to the right of the VVD.

Current projections for the Senate look as follows in the last EenVandaag/Ipsos poll and the Peil.nl prognosis

Government:
VVD: 15 (Ipsos) - 12 (Peil)
CDA: 5 - 5
D66: 6 - 7
ChristenUnie: 2 - 3
Government total: 28 - 27

Left-wing/"progressive" opposition:
GL-PvdA: 13 - 14
SP: 5 - 4
PvdD: 4 - 3
Volt: 1 - 1
Left-wing/"progressive" opposition total: 23 - 22

Right-wing opposition:
BBB: 9 - 10
PVV: 9 - 8
JA21: 3 - 3
Forum: 2 - 3
SGP: 1 - 1
Right-wing opposition total: 24 - 25.

Others: 0 - 1.

BBB are set to become the biggest party in the Northern provinces of Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe and the eastern province of Overijssel, which would be important from a symbolical perspective. Gelderland, Zeeland and Flevoland are supposedly a BBB/VVD tossup. The PVV will be the biggest party in Limburg. VVD are expected to win in Noord-Brabant, Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht. Notice the center vs. periphery polarization here?

All of this is based on current projections, however; in a 2019 redux scenario in which BBB (like FVD back then) gain more at the expense of other right-wing parties (in this case primarily PVV/JA21), all bets are off.

3. What is the campaign about?

- First and foremost: nitrogen emissions. In 2019, the highest court of the Netherlands ruled that the system of granting permits for activities that emit nitrogens goes against European regulations. This caused a total shutdown of new permits being granted. A new nitrogen law was supposed to solve the problem, but these targets are too ambitious in the eyes of some and suicidal for farmers to others. The goal is to cut nitrogen emissions by 50% in 2035. D66 added fuel to the fire when it claimed to want 50% reduction in cattle, infuriating farmers and causing mass farmers' protests in 2019 and again last year.

Officially, the government line is now that nitrogen reduction targets are set in stone but the way to reach them is not. Left-wing opposition parties want to speed up the process further and reach the 50% target in 2030. This issue is also very relevant for the provinces, as they are responsible for much of the policy regarding spatial planning, climate, and the environment.

- Secondary: inflation/cost of living (I'd call this "secondary +"), housing shortages, the energy transition, and immigration (with asylum requests skyrocketing again).

4. What line do the parties take?

- VVD and GL-PvdA want this to be a right vs. left contest focused on the Senate. The VVD, who have been governing for 13 years, present us with the most populist takes about lower taxes and more security, as if they are not in government. GL-PvdA try to paint the VVD as the big villain, as if they haven't cooperated for years. The VVD hope to gain right-wing BBB/JA21 voters who are scared of the idea of GL-PvdA becoming the biggest party. GL-PvdA hope the prospect of a left-wing alliance as biggest party is attractive to D66 voters.

- By contrast, D66 wants this to be about the government vs. the conservative opposition in the Provincial States. Their slogan ("Stop standstill, vote forward") sounds as linguistically awkward in Dutch as it does in English, but it's quite clear.

- BBB and JA21 also want the campaign to be about the government vs. the conservative opposition both nationally and provincially. The idea: a good result for them forces Rutte to cooperate with the right in the Senate + VVD and CDA to cooperate with the right provincially. BBB are set to win over a large number of CDA+VVD voters, particularly in the North and the East.

5. Tl;dr?

- Provincial election will decide composition of Senate + determines important nitrogen policies with a big impact on the agricultural sector.

- The government already lacks a majority but is set to lose more seats. The question is whether they will have a majority together with GL+PvdA. Currently this looks like the most likely scenario and in the end they will strike deals, but it will make life harder for the government.

- Dutch politics now consists of three blocks of equal size: the left, the center-right, and the populist/nationalist right (or, alternatively: the left, the center and the right). The number of seats to the right of the VVD keeps growing, even if Forum has collapsed. Few voters shift between blocs; the most important cross-bloc shifts are GL/PvdA <--> D66 and VVD/CDA <--> BBB/JA21.

- After failed experiments in Noord-Brabant (VVD-FVD-CDA) and Limburg (in practice: CDA-FVD-PVV-VVD), FVD are uncoalitionable on the provincial level. BBB and JA21 should be considered coalitionable, but D66 excludes them; however, in rural provinces where VVD-CDA-BBB-JA21 have a majority, things might get very interesting. The PVV is somewhere in between - in Limburg, VVD and CDA have indicated interest in a coalition.

- I expect the D66 vs. BBB narrative to be more successful than the VVD vs. GL/PvdA narrative.

- The nitrogen issue has all the ingredients to be something over which the government could later collapse, particularly if deals with GL/PvdA get too difficult and pressure on CDA/VVD (the former moreso than the latter) from BBB/JA21 (the former moreso than the latter) keeps growing.

[DavidB.]

Some campaign videos:

VVD: "They will vote. Will you do so too?"
https://twitter.com/VVD/status/1634078631726321664

GroenLinks: "This election is unimportant. Let our generation do the voting. You can keep scrolling on Tiktok."
https://twitter.com/groenlinks/status/1634100594091728896

BBB: "We want there to be buses again. We want people to have doctors in their neighborhood. Good train connections, police officers back in the neighborhoods and the villages. Small local schools that can stay open."
https://twitter.com/BoerBurgerB/status/1633819364716601345

D66: "Stop standstill. Vote forward."
https://twitter.com/D66/status/1626960134504165376

[DavidB.]

A shock I&O poll - a firm without a right-wing bias by any means - shows BBB gaining momentum and the government not reaching a majority even together with GL/PvdA.

BBB would currently have 13 seats in the Senate, compared to 14 for GL/PvdA. However, BBB has more room to grow. FVD were polling on about 9 at this time in the campaign in 2019, while they eventually got 12.

The coalition is at only 20 seats, and 34 together with GL/PvdA. There are ways out if you also take Volt's 2 seats and the ever-constructive SGP's two seats, or even the SP's four seats, but let's be fair - a result like this could blow up the government.



Compared to the parliamentary election in 2021, BBB gain 22% of all PVV voters, 20% of CDA voters, 20% of JA21 voters, 17% of FVD voters, 17% of SP voters and 10% of VVD voters.

The poll per province looks as follows:



The political map in the North and East shifts dramatically. The North used to be the hotbed of socialism and gave below-average scores to populist parties in the 2000s and early 2010s. This shifted in the last years, however, when Rutte-II hollowed out more facilities in the countryside, when the asylum crisis mostly took a toll on the North (biggest intake per head of the population + biggest reception center located there), and particularly when environmental/climate/nitrogen issues started affecting farmers. Now, in Drenthe, BBB, PVV, FVD and JA21 are polling at 45% - yes, that is without VVD and CDA. BBB wouldn't do this, but it places them in a perfect position to demand the ultimate price of VVD and CDA. This poll also shows BBB is making inroads in the West.

In Limburg, PVV-VVD-CDA-JA21 have a majority (without FVD).

These are the polling results for most urban vs. most rural areas:


Polling results per region in the country (3 biggest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague; rest West; North; East; South):


Polling result per education level (lower; middle; higher):

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is BBB likely to be flash in the pan? Are they merely single issue on this nitrogen thing? What coalitions could they form?

[DavidB.]

Is BBB likely to be flash in the pan? Are they merely single issue on this nitrogen thing? What coalitions could they form?

1. Difficult to say. The bigger they get, the more difficult it will get to keep the party united when hard decisions have to be made. In a province like Drenthe, I&O polls them at 15 (!) seats. It isn't hard to see how this could cause trouble. However, the ingredients are there to make them a lasting force too. Increasing distrust in "The Hague", a growing sentiment that rural areas are structurally put at a disadvantage, and a political establishment that increasingly looks alike. Van der Plas also seems to do a good job at keeping more extreme people out. And almost none of their candidates have a past in right-wing populist parties (a category which I don't think BBB is in), which have been very prone to infighting.

I guess the gist of the answer would be that the party is likely to land in trouble, but that the ingredients are also there to make them a structural force.

2. Nitrogen is their biggest issue, but I wouldn't call them a one-issue party, and they object to being called a "farmers party" only. They also care about issues like decentralization and more facilities in the countryside - I think they are most comparable to the Norwegian Center Party.

3. Their natural partner would be JA21, with whom they wrote proposals on tackling the nitrogen issue together. Another obvious partner is the SGP.

But then it gets more difficult. I believe they could cooperate with VVD and CDA, at least in more "rebellious" and more rural provinces, although this is likely to cause serious rifts between the national and the provincial VVD/CDA leadership and could cause the government to collapse. But I don't think it should be impossible, as BBB don't actually reject the premises of the government's nitrogen policy - they just want different terms.

I don't think BBB would reject cooperation with the PVV, but in most provinces (except Limburg) VVD and CDA do.

Other very difficult, but perhaps not 100% impossible options are ChristenUnie and PvdA, at least in the North/East. Quite far apart on nitrogen, but in all other regards there is quite some overlap and "cultural" proximity. Polar opposites D66, GL, and PvdD seem off-limits.

[JimJamUK]

2. Nitrogen is their biggest issue, but I wouldn't call them a one-issue party, and they object to being called a "farmers party" only. They also care about issues like decentralization and more facilities in the countryside - I think they are most comparable to the Norwegian Center Party.

3. Their natural partner would be JA21, with whom they wrote proposals on tackling the nitrogen issue together. Another obvious partner is the SGP.

But then it gets more difficult. I believe they could cooperate with VVD and CDA, at least in more "rebellious" and more rural provinces, although this is likely to cause serious rifts between the national and the provincial VVD/CDA leadership and could cause the government to collapse. But I don't think it should be impossible, as BBB don't actually reject the premises of the government's nitrogen policy - they just want different terms.

What are their alternative proposals to deal with the nitrogen issue?

[DavidB.]

What are their alternative proposals to deal with the nitrogen issue?

- Keeping 2035 as target year for having 50% of Natura 2000 areas below "critical nitrogen deposition value" (instead of lowering the target year to 2030)
- No forced buyouts of farmers, only voluntarily
- Focus on improvement of nature instead of nitrogen targets as goal in and of itself
- Replacing nitrogen estimation models (which have been proven inaccurate in many cases) with actual measurements

See also this article in Binnenlands Bestuur: "With BBB in the provinces, there won't be a revolution"

Still, this means many farmers will be forced to quit, one way or another. Sooner or later, BBB risk becoming the target of protests themselves if they enter provincial governments carrying out this policy.

[DavidB.]

The final Peil.nl prognosis shows a three-way race, with GL/PvdA currently at 14, BBB at 12 and VVD at 12. This is their prognosis, with column "minimaal" at the lower end and "maximaal" at the higher end:



With this prognosis, the government could lose its majority even together with GL/PvdA but may keep it. For the government, this one is therefore more "optimistic" than the I&O one.

By province (in seats), with all polls next to each other (by column: PS19 election, EenVandaag/Ipoos poll, I&O poll, Peil poll):






BIJ1 doesn't take part in the elections - they have had lots of infighting since the local elections, with accusations of "anti-Muslim racism" on the other hand and "anti-black racism" on the other hand between the two warring factions. Sylvana Simons is often not present in parliament due to chronic illness and pain, but cannot temporarily give up her seat, as it would go to #2 Quinsy Gario, who left the party on bad terms. Therefore, they are less visible than perhaps possible and decided not to take the risk. BIJ1 have endorsed the Party for the Animals.

In Overijssel, DENK are not standing and have endorsed - quite interestingly - BBB.

[DavidB.]

Last Ipsos/EenVandaag poll (compared to Feb 28):

PvdA/GL 14 (+1)
BBB 13 (+4)
VVD 12 (-3)
PVV 8 (-1)
SP 5
CDA 5
D66 4 (-2)
PvdD 4
JA21 3
FVD 2
ChristenUnie 2
Volt 1
SGP 1
50Plus 1
DENK 0
OSF 0

Government 23
Government + GL/PvdA 37 (1 short of a majority)

Very bad poll for D66. Government in deep trouble.

[DavidB.]

Polling stations have opened and will close at 21:00. Exit polls will probably follow either directly or 15 minutes later.

Meanwhile, regional public transportation staff are striking for a better wage. If I were them I'd do it literally every day this month except for election day, but they're doing it today, which will make voting more difficult for some disabled people and elderly people. This decision has been heavily criticized and Interior Minister Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA), who is responsible for the electoral process, gave a statement saying she is disappointed. She calls on people to help others to make sure everyone can vote.

https://twitter.com/HankeBruinsSlot/status/1635733355743379481

[Logical]

There are also water board elections today. The vote compass for it has a lot of fun questions like combating muskrats and crayfish and allowing public fishing holes.
https://mijnstem.nl/waterschappen#!/

[DavidB.]

So the evening will look as follows.

21:00: Polls close; exit poll for Noord-Holland
21:20: Exit poll for Overijssel
21:40: Exit poll for Noord-Brabant
22:00: Exit poll for Senate
22:30: Results for municipalites start coming in

After 1:30: Separate prognoses for all 12 Provincial States + Senate, based on actual results, with high level of reliability

--

At 10:30, turnout was 8%, 1% higher than in 2019. Total turnout was 56% in 2019, which was relatively high compared to the Provincial elections in the years before - turnout used to be around 50%.

[Logical]

Turnout as of 3.45 pm is 29%, 3% higher than 2019. I'd say it's probably bad for the government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So the evening will look as follows.

21:00: Polls close; exit poll for Noord-Holland
21:20: Exit poll for Overijssel
21:40: Exit poll for Noord-Brabant
22:00: Exit poll for Senate
22:30: Results for municipalites start coming in

After 1:30: Separate prognoses for all 12 Provincial States + Senate, based on actual results, with high level of reliability

--

At 10:30, turnout was 8%, 1% higher than in 2019. Total turnout was 56% in 2019, which was relatively high compared to the Provincial elections in the years before - turnout used to be around 50%.

Who are you voting for these days?

[Logical]

Turnout as of 5.45 pm is 37%, up 4% compared to 2019. If this continues then final turnout will hit 60%.

In Amsterdam turnout as of 6 pm is 34,6%, up from 24,5% in 2019.

[DavidB.]

Turnout as of 5.45 pm is 37%, up 4% compared to 2019. If this continues then final turnout will hit 60%.

I also tend to say this will hurt the government, but this is not a given. The VVD, for example, had a very aggressive GOTV campaign - see the above "they will vote, will you do so too?" video. A substantial number of voters (think middle class and lower middle class, small towns and suburbs, law and order voters) are "VVD minded" and will vote VVD in general elections, but seldom turn out in second-order elections and had to be activated to do so.

Still think this will end up badly for the government. Would particularly like to see how much turnout went up in BBB areas in the North and the East.

Who are you voting for these days?

Depends, but went for JA21 this time. I found it important to vote for a party that wants to reduce immigration substantially and also supports Ukraine, with a mature view on the implications of war on our continent (no ruling out any type of support; no rhetoric about how support for Ukraine would go at the expense of the Dutch; open mind on deepening European cooperation regarding security and defense).