🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (user search)
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 60443 times)
JimJamUK
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« on: March 11, 2023, 10:07:00 AM »

2. Nitrogen is their biggest issue, but I wouldn't call them a one-issue party, and they object to being called a "farmers party" only. They also care about issues like decentralization and more facilities in the countryside - I think they are most comparable to the Norwegian Center Party.

3. Their natural partner would be JA21, with whom they wrote proposals on tackling the nitrogen issue together. Another obvious partner is the SGP.

But then it gets more difficult. I believe they could cooperate with VVD and CDA, at least in more "rebellious" and more rural provinces, although this is likely to cause serious rifts between the national and the provincial VVD/CDA leadership and could cause the government to collapse. But I don't think it should be impossible, as BBB don't actually reject the premises of the government's nitrogen policy - they just want different terms.
What are their alternative proposals to deal with the nitrogen issue?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2023, 11:25:02 AM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.
I wouldn’t really consider this a climate change issue. The government is trying to limit nitrogen because of its pollution of the Dutch environment. This is worse than pretty much any other European country, and the courts ultimately forced them into acting or seeing significant restrictions imposed anyways. It probably helps that the Netherlands has a very low electoral threshold to get your foot in the door, and the breakdown of the traditional political system and associated voter loyalty means a new party can quickly breakthrough to ‘major’ party status. And to be fair other countries do see some parties fairly focused on farming/rural interests eg; the Center parties in most of Scandinavia or the Denmark Democrats in Denmark. The party that would traditionally represent many farmers/rural voters in the Netherlands, the CDA, is currently in government imposing unpopular policies on them so it helps spur these voters into looking elsewhere for something new and more radical.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2023, 11:40:38 AM »

- Coalition formation is still ongoing in all provinces. It seems BBB prefers "grand coalitions" including PvdA (and sometimes GL too) almost everywhere, including in provinces where they could govern with CDA, VVD and JA21 alone. In some provinces (Limburg, Groningen, Drenthe), the PvdA have let go of GL to form a coalition with BBB, which causes bad blood within GL. Meanwhile, D66 used to be part of the coalition in about half of the provinces but are now sidelined everywhere - while GL is still set to govern in a good number of provinces. This is Jetten's strategy of D66's repositioning as "climate nagger party", which has successfully taken issue ownership over environmental and climate issues from GL by placing it in the most extreme position besides PvdD, coming back as a boomerang for D66.]
Is there any reconsideration of the growing alignment between GL and PVDA? From the outside it seems odd that they would compete together for these elections and then not even form government together. The PVDA as an establishment, pragmatic party of the centre-left does seem an awkward fit for an idealistic, strongly progressive-left party like GL.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2023, 12:59:51 PM »

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2023, 04:09:03 PM »

A few question for DavidB if he doesn’t mind:

Do the PvdD actually achieve anything? They don’t look able or really interested in entering government, but do they even get bills (especially animal ones) passed or anything like that?
Would the CU qualify as ‘Christian Left’ or is it just too right wing of a party for that description?
Could you explain more about GL’s views? On the previous page you quoted Klaver as arguing for the importance of social class and collectivism, which seems to jarr a bit with my impression of GL as an ultra progressive party focused on (to use an academic term) post-material issues.
Who votes for the PvdA these days?
Where are D66 and Volt economically these days?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2023, 09:53:41 AM »

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s
No, absolutely not. It’s an ultra progressive middle class party, almost the complete opposite of Blue Labour politics.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2023, 04:53:18 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2023, 02:55:46 PM by JimJamUK »

If asked whether voters want Keijzer (BBB), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) or Yesilgöz (VVD) as PM, this is the result by party (allen = all voters):





What immediately jumps out to me is how right wing the SP vote is and how left wing the CU vote is.
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JimJamUK
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Posts: 843
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2023, 11:41:51 AM »

The LP are the proud owner of my first vote ever (in 2012), but not many more than that. In recent years they changed their name from Libertarische Partij to Libertaire Partij, indicating a swing towards a more 'progressive' type of libertarianism and messaging. They will probably get around 5,000 votes like in 2021.
Purely out of interest, can you elaborate more on the difference? My Google translate can’t tell the difference 😅
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2023, 05:40:14 PM »

DENK did not stop here, however, as it published a series of controversial images - all with the addition "Vote DENK - Now is the moment":
- One of them shows Wilders behind bars with the text "Ultra tough punishment for anti-Muslim hatred"...
- ... another one is opposed to Drag Queen Story Hours and Pride Month advertisements by government institutions and big corporations with the text "Shall we act normally again?"
- DENK also wants to chemically castrate p*d*ph*les...
- ... and they attack electoral competitor GL-PvdA and their leader Frans Timmermans on the subject of plastic taxes, sugar taxes, meat taxes and flight taxes: "Don't let yourself be robbed!"
How much do Denk campaign on outright social conservatism (as opposed to hiding behind ‘woke’ rhetoric)?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2023, 01:59:43 PM »

Incredibly low numbers among both VVD and, more interestingly, NSC voters. GL-PvdA are really unpopular with non-left-wing voters. Reason to worry for Timmermans: if he wants to enter the government, it's either this combination or one with BBB, either instead of VVD (but that one is unlikely to win a majority) or in addition to it.
Do you think this is attributable to one of the constituent parties being particularly unpopular, both of them being unpopular, or simply because they are left of centre and therefore were never going to appeal to mostly right or centre voters?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2023, 01:04:29 PM »

Shifts regarding favorability/acceptability of PM candidates tend to be good proxies for where the momentum is going. According to today's 1Vandaag poll, Omtzigt has it. Yesilgöz, Timmermans and particularly Keijzer are losing it. Compared to last month, 58% find Pieter Omtzigt to be an acceptable candidate for PM (+5%). Yesilgöz (44%, -6%) is losing steam, but still considered acceptable by almost half of the voters. Timmermans (33%, -3%) and Keijzer (23%, -16%) are deemed less acceptable - BBB's campaign seems as if it's free-falling.
What has gone so wrong for BBB? I can understand their core issue disappearing from a previous high point will have hurt their polling a lot, but that shift suggests many potential voters are just being turned off by them.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2023, 12:02:05 PM »

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.
If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2023, 03:16:01 PM »

Denk down in the current circumstances is nice to see I suppose.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2023, 12:05:33 PM »

It's both. The primary reason is that a larger percentage of the younger population is Muslim, but younger Muslims are also more likely to vote for DENK than older Muslims.
What’s the gender split like for Denk?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2023, 07:15:32 PM »

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away, maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.
If for no other reason than the fact the current strategy cannot get them into government, as the overall Parliament was simply too right wing and their voters opposed to having ‘progressive’ parties in government once again. The left needs to grow its vote share, as well as becoming less toxic to middle of the road voters who might not vote for it but would punish a right of centre party that went into coalition with them.
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JimJamUK
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Posts: 843
United Kingdom


« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2023, 01:34:10 PM »

Here is a graph with all candidates that were elected with preferential votes, i.e. 25% of a seat, 17.388 votes this time:


Timmermans stands out as having a weak personal vote given the vote/personal vote ratio of the other majorish parties. Some of that will be down to the fact he’s the lead candidate of an alliance rather than the only leading figure in his party, but it doesn’t look the whole explanation.
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JimJamUK
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Posts: 843
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2023, 06:30:02 PM »

- But a left-wing motion to scrap copayments for healthcare (in 2024 set to be €385 per person per year) was also adopted: PVV and BBB voted along with the left and gave the motion a majority. It is unclear what will happen next.
What was the specific party breakdown of this vote (I only ask because ‘left’ can be a pretty debatable label in The Netherlands)?
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