🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (user search)
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  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 60542 times)
Cassius
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« on: March 16, 2023, 02:01:43 PM »

Given the extreme crowding on the ‘anti-government right’ segment of the Dutch political scene, what exactly is the remaining base of the PVV (in the polls for the next election I see that they’re still expected to get into the teens seats wise)?
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Cassius
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2023, 02:23:15 PM »

Hoist by their own commissioner as it were.
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Cassius
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2023, 04:56:13 AM »

The proposed ban on alcohol sales after 10 is a carbon copy of the present law in Scotland. Clearly K(i/e)rk’s of a feather flock together.
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Cassius
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2023, 12:18:52 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2023, 12:22:04 PM by Cassius »

Best visualization of the Peil poll: green is scenario with Omtzigt party, red is scenario without Omtzigt party. Looks like the VVD pulling the plug on the government has actually helped them and Rutte stepping aside for Yesilgöz too, very interesting. BBB are losing to VVD and PVV.


Why do Omtzigt and BBB win so many more seats if they both run (at this stage) than BBB if it runs alone? Is the latter perceived as being too right-wing whereas Omtzigt appeals across the spectrum?
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Cassius
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2023, 10:05:12 AM »

Isn’t D66 kind of a “blue labour” social Democratic Party? My understanding is that party was first created by people on the right of PVDA in the 1960s

The founders of D66 came from the left-wing of the VVD (Hans van Mierlo and Hans Gruijters) - I think you may be confusing them with DS’70, a group of PvdA traditionalists led by Willem Drees Jr (son of the PvdA PM of the same name) who split from the main party due to their dissatisfaction with its leftward drift.
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Cassius
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2023, 10:51:43 AM »

I look forward to the Guardian pronouncing a progressive triumph when GL-PvDA come first in a crowded field with 27 seats and 17% of the vote.
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Cassius
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2023, 05:18:21 AM »

Curious to see what happens to the CDA after the election - from what I can tell Bontenbal and the party’s present platform are vaguely leftish (with emphasis on the ‘ish’). Could there be a link up with the CU at some point to avoid total irrelevance?
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Cassius
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2023, 04:17:23 PM »

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?



He could at least have replicated the cursus honorum.
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Cassius
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2023, 07:26:27 AM »

I&O Research poll, November 6-7:

NSC: 29 seats (+2 from 10/24)
VVD: 26
GL/PvdA: 24 (-1)
PVV: 18 (-1)
BBB: 8 (-3)
D66: 8 (+2)
SP: 6 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-2)
FvD: 5 (+1)
Volt: 5
CDA: 4
DENK: 4 (+1)
CU: 3
SGP: 3
JA21: 1 (-1)
BVNL: 1 (+1)
BIJ1: 0
50+: 0

BBB looking like it could fall into 6th place - yet again another Dutch insurgent party which fails to sustain its growth. How long will NSC last after the election?

Speaking as an outsider, I imagine they’d have the potential to do quite well if they go for the centre-right minority coalition option with some combination of VVD/BBB/SGP and the PVV tacitly supporting them from the outside. I think they could run into problems if they try the centre-left/“grand coalition” option with some combination of PvdA-GL/VVD (even if they are taking some voters from the former). The first coalition will probably run into trouble with the EU, but the EU don’t have the same purse strings to pull (ie wield as a cudgel) with the Netherlands as they do with Italy/the Eastern European countries, so there should be more room for manoeuvre.
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Cassius
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2023, 07:56:03 AM »

Would a strong PVV result make some type of VVD/PvdA-GL/NSC grand coalition more likely? I’m thinking that Omtzigt might get cold feet at the prospect of being part of a minority VVD/NSC/BBB/JA21 coalition with only 55-60 seats or so that would be far more dependant on Wilders’ goodwill than if say that same formulation had 70+ seats (which looked more likely at the start of the campaign)?
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Cassius
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2023, 05:15:14 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2023, 06:13:15 PM by Cassius »

I get that PVV plays the xenophobia card and make rightwing populist promises about stopping asylum seekers etc... but what do they offer when it comes to inflation? Do they promise to wave a magic wand and make prices drop?

I mean, what did any of the other parties offer to tackle inflation? The only way a government can ‘tackle’ inflation in the short term is by inducing a recession via contractionary fiscal and monetary policy. This is obviously very unpopular so instead all parties and all governments in all countries promise to wave the magic wand. The left (and this is a pan-western thing rather than something specific to the Netherlands) have no solutions either, so they just retreat into platitudes about ‘Green New Deals’ and ‘fairness’.

Ultimately, in 2023 the toolkit that national governments have for influencing economic matters is very limited (especially if you’re a member of the EU), so the ‘social’ issues (a crude phrase but it’ll have to do) are the only real remaining area of contestation.
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Cassius
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2023, 05:18:07 PM »

Anyway, good to see another Simon Kuper L:

https://www.ft.com/content/411050a7-0a60-4d8e-b4c9-395815b66caf
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Cassius
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2023, 06:10:19 PM »

Why does it take them so long to count votes in the Netherlands? In Germany the votes would almost all be counted within an or two of the polls closing

They count by municipality and release the results in one dump for each municipality once they’re fully counted. The ones that are coming in at the moment are the smaller ones, but once places like Amsterdam start coming in the percentage of votes counted will start to shoot up.
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Cassius
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2023, 07:25:10 PM »

Any more clarity as to which party will come second/third/fourth?

GL-PvdA will probably pip VVD for second thanks to Utrecht, but it will be close. Not a particularly impressive night for the former and a pretty disastrous one for the wider liberal-left (if we include D66 in this category).
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Cassius
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« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2023, 04:13:50 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2023, 04:29:56 AM by Cassius »

Now that most of the votes are in, here’s my stab at the top three winners and losers:

Winners
1. PVV: Self explanatory.
2. BBB: Failed to get the kind of massive result that looked possible earlier in the year, but then I get the impression that that was never the real purpose of the party. They nonetheless increased vote and seat share and have room to grow in the regions should NSC disappoint.
3. NSC: Failed to live up to the early campaign hype, but didn’t collapse completely either and will be vital to any government formation.

Losers
1. CDA: Catastrophically bad result for a party that was originally created to be a mass party with mass appeal. They’re now little more than a minor party and offer nothing that no other party doesn’t offer more convincingly. Had a dreadful result in Overijssel, previously their strongest province, where their vote seems to have gone over to NSC en masse.
2. GL-PvdA: Came second and increased their vote share, but in the end not by all that much (they only improved on their combined 2017 vote share by less than a point), and this came mostly at the expense of cannibalising other liberal and left-leaning parties, who had a pretty uniformly dreadful night.
3. NSC: A winner and a loser - on this side of the ledger, they underperformed expectations at the start of the campaign and their pool of voters looks so heterogeneous that they stand to lose a large chunk of their voters no matter who they go with in government (although I do think propping up a Timmermans-led government would be worse for them, given the fact they got their strongest results in places like Overijssel.
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