🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22) (user search)
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Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 68936 times)
jeron
Jr. Member
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Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« on: January 11, 2022, 05:23:10 AM »
« edited: January 11, 2022, 06:25:14 AM by jeron »

Was D66 as a whole previously anti-nuclear energy or was this just Jetten's position?

What is written above is not entirely correct.
Jetten's position was much more nuanced than just being against nuclear energy, as is D66's position. To claim Jetten will be responsible for 'building two nuclear power plants' is also a stretch. The coalition agreed to take the 'necessary steps to build two nuclear plants', which includes facilitating nuclear initiatives and looking into a financial contribution (subsidy) from the government. Of course everything hinges on the last and there is bound to be discussion over it. That doesn't mean that there won't be nuclear plants but it is a long way still.

Essentially the new policy should come as no surprise. There are two parties in government which want nuclear energy and two which don't take a strong position either way. Of course things would have been different had Groenlinks and PvdA been in government.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2022, 06:08:06 AM »
« Edited: January 11, 2022, 06:28:45 AM by jeron »

Was D66 as a whole previously anti-nuclear energy or was this just Jetten's position?
They werenít officially ďopposedĒ (like GL) but in practice they were (kept pushing against nuclear and kept voting against it), because they argued it would be too expensive. Iíve never been quite sure whether that argument was completely sincere or whether they were actually opposed in principle but didnít feel like even having that debate - Iím guessing the latter, or at least a bit of both. Jettenís position was the same as his partyís.

What probably helped in D66 making concessions on this issue is public opinion being quite strongly in favor of nuclear energy and D66 competitors Volt being outspokenly pro-nuclear, which seems to be a popular position especially among younger voters. CU had a similar position to D66 but was probably more easily convinced (I guess because their ďitís too expensiveĒ stance was their actual stance and the new government is spending like crazy anyway).

This is again not correct. GL does clearly oppose nuclear energy as do most of its supporters. D66 wrote that it prefers other kinds of energy and that nuclear energy comes with disadvantages that would have to be taken away (https://d66.nl/kernenergie/) CU essentially takes the same position, but the argument is not money, but nuclear waste. See: https://www.christenunie.nl/standpunt/kerncentrales
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2022, 08:17:08 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2022, 08:20:47 AM by jeron »

If you had to describe Volt's political position, how would you describe it aside from being pro-european federalism?

It is a very similar party to D66 but there are couple of things worth highlighting I feel (and DavidB can correct me). For one, Volt is very open about wanting to lead a sort of political revolution and a generational transition of power. They play on the elite/ordinary people cleavage to an extent despite their high educated voter base, and they definitely play on the generational cleavage more than D66.

D66 is more of a managerialist/conservative reformist kind of party that believes in maintaining cadre interests and status quo politics and has pretty much given up on its wacky ideas to renew Dutch politics such as majoritarian system or elected mayors (or referenda, which really damaged their image as a "let's renew dutch politics and make it closer to citizens").

In simple terms, Volt is first and foremost a youth party, and then one that seeks to overhaul the political system (inc. the Eurofederalism thing). D66 is a party that goes across generations and targets different cadres and sectors specifically, and does not seek an overhaul anymore.

It's pretty clear though that Volt mainly benefit from disgruntled D66 voters.


In terms of voter base, the generational divide between Volt and D66 is not as large as you describe because:
a) Volt attracted voters from all age groups, and
B) D66 also disproportionally gets it votes from younger voters and overperforms in university towns.

Relatively speaking Volt did do better among college and university students which may be partly due to D66 previously supporting the abolishment of student grants and the introduction of student loans. In that sense Volt is more of a student party than a youth party.

https://maurice.nl/peilingen/2021/04/tk2021-naar-demografische-en-andere-kenmerken/

.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2022, 01:33:34 PM »

Are there any embarrassed retrospectives on that Ukrainian referendum a few years back?

Not really, everybody mainly sticks to their own opinion. Baudet has gone completely mad and now spews Russian propaganda in parliament and claims Putin is a wonderful guy. He claims the war is a corroboration of his point of view: the EU should not have signed an Association agreement with Ukraine as it was a threat to Russia and without it there would have been no war.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2023, 09:50:21 AM »

The Netherlands is not the only country in Europe that has a large agricultural sector and its also not the only country that is trying to meet climate change targets. Why is this BBB revolt by farmers such a uniquely Dutch phenomenon? Why do we not see similar parties popping up in Germany or Denmark or Belgium. I know those other countries have rightwing populist parties - but they tend to be focused on xenophobia and not fight against nitrogen reduction.

The nature and scale of these nitrogen cuts, and the way they were handled (imposed by a court) is  relatively unique to. The Netherlands.

The cuts were not imposed by the court. The previous system was ruled unlawful by a court. That system was criticized when it was implemented because it was deemed to be unlawful by lawyers.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2023, 02:01:40 PM »

So, snap elections in September?

Generally, it is expected it will be October or the first week of November
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2023, 08:54:32 AM »

Peil.nl pollster Maurice de Hond: BBB would now stand to win 33 seats, if Omtzigt joins it'd be 53. If Omtzigt were to run alone, he'd win 38 seats with BBB at 17, so the parts are still bigger than the sum. Problem for them: good luck finding suitable candidates.
[

That is the old poll from March. In de hond's latest poll BBB is at 27 (and there are other polls which have them lower, at 23 or 24 and VVD as the largest party). BBB has of course been working on its party for the last couple of years. Omtzigt has not and he chose not to take part in the provincial elections and therefore has no seats in the senate.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2023, 04:19:00 AM »

With parties so divided how likely is it that there will be an actual government or will it be like Israel where have multiple elections before resolving it?  Likewise interested in how long it will likely take to form government?  I am guessing if election is in November it will take until at least spring of 2024 and possibly longer.  Does Netherlands have a time limit before they must go to a new election or is there any chance of breaking the record Belgium set at 583 days?

With current polling it would be very difficult to form any kind of government. It would indeed take until spring at least but maybe longer. There is no time limit so it could take ages, but i don't the Belgian record will be broken. If VVD turns out to be the largest party again that would complicate things further (assuming Rutte is still its leader). That being said, a repeat election never happened before so i think in the end soms form of government will be formed.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2023, 04:53:19 AM »

Guess there goes the theories that he intentionally brought down the government to trigger a new election.

No he just didn't bank on a potential no confidence vote in his own position I think, but also now what is up for grabs is that he wants to lead the "current affairs/demissionair" cabinet, presumably to extend his innings a bit more and fill a small gap between his potential EU or NATO gig.

There will still be a vite of confidence in his position submitted by PvdA/GL and Wilders has indicated he will back it.

No. There will not be a bite of confidence
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2023, 02:36:12 AM »

Who does it look like Omtzigt benefits or hurts? The hypothetical polling seems to show him forming the largest party and taking a lot of support from many parties, though maybe more from the right. Does it look like he has the skills to actually live up to those expectations?
In these hypothetical polls, it looks like BBB, PVV and smaller parties SP and JA21 stand to lose the most if Omtzigt were to run. So yes, your conclusion is correct: it would hurt everyone a little, but some right-wing parties a lot. The extent to which he can live up to this partly depends on his other candidates and his campaign. Currently, Omtzigt can almost be whatever you want him to be - not entirely, because he has a track record of 20 years in parliament and he has recently outlined his ideas in the book A new social contract. But it will be interesting to see whether potential BBB/Omtzigt or PVV/Omtzigt voters will like his ideas on, say, immigration, agriculture or climate when forced to explain them. I am not completely sure these voters will then stick with Omtzigt. If he's running, attacking his positions will also become fair game - no one does this right now and no one has done it. But I still think his chances are strong. The polls for "preferred PM" tend to be a good indicator and he tops them all.

From a left-wing point of view, there are two ways of viewing it: on the one hand, right-wing votes move towards an option that can barely even be called right-wing, which left-wingers could consider to be positive. On the other hand, it is much more difficult to attack Omtzigt than to attack BBB or the VVD - first of all because the political fate of those who attacked him before (Rutte, Hoekstra, De Jonge) hasn't exactly been stellar and Omtzigt scored sympathy points with most voters with it, and second of all because Omtzigt's political views are probably about where the median Dutch voter is, unlike Van der Plas and Wilders (although they try on most issues). And I still think Omtzigt would prefer a coalition very similar to the one preferred by BBB: with BBB themselves, VVD, JA21 and SP, and maybe what's left of the CDA. A PvdA running separately would be a somewhat logical partner, but a PvdA-GL under Frans Timmermans less so.


Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.
As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2023, 07:40:21 AM »

Omtzigt seems to be popular among some left wing voters which is kind of weird considering his 20 year parliamentarian streak. He has been a rather conservative CDA member. Of course we do not know his future ideas yet so maybe he will pander to left wing voters during the campaign.
I think Omtzigt's popularity among left-wing voters can be explained very easily: he stands up for marginalized people who are being crushed by the government machinery. This is the core of his legacy in parliament, most importantly because of his role in exposing the childcare benefits scandal - and it is what the left is supposed to do. I also don't think his streak in parliament can be unequivocally called "conservative". He is more of a euroskeptic, true, but seems more left-wing on socio-economic issues than the CDA (see also: his support for increasing the minimum wage by 10%, which was eliminated by Hoekstra from the 2021 draft election manifesto at the last moment). On immigration he is more to the right, but on agriculture more to the left.

As to the SP joining such a right wing coalition, the idea is quite absurd. The SP does not want to be in a coalition with VVD, let alone JA21.
This may be your impression but it is not what they say. They excluded the VVD in 2017 but softened this position that fall. Then SP chairman Ron Meyer in De Volkskrant: "Excluding a party is never permanent."

In 2021, Lilian Marijnissen only excluded cooperation with the PVV and Forum for Democracy but she did explicitly not exclude cooperation with the VVD. From NOS: "She does not wish to anticipate on specific potential coalition partners, but will definitely not [enter a coalition] with PVV and Forum for Democracy. She does not wish to completely exclude the VVD [as potential partner], but they are at the bottom of the list." For Marijnissen, the most important thing was the SP would "only enter a government that would decrease inequality".

On the local and provincial level, VVD and SP have already cooperated successfully. With Rutte out and the new VVD leader not carrying a lot of negative baggage, the most important obstacle for VVD-SP cooperation on the national level is removed. I don't think it is far-fetched at all. The only alternative for the SP is ever-further marginalization in opposition.

You prove my point exactly. People focus on the child benefits scandal and think Omtzigt is on the left and on their side.

It is not my impression, it is what SP members say privately. One of them just laughed when i told him people think the may join such a coalition. And even if they would be willing to join the vvd in a coaliton that is still something completely different than joining a completely right wing coalition. That would be political suicide. Why would any socialist party want to do that?

We all know that cooperating on provincial level is something completely different than on a national level as the main tasks of provinces lie in the fields of public transport, roads and environment.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2023, 01:39:51 PM »

New poll by peil shows NSC losing 1 seat and VVD and BBB losing two seats each while PVV gains two and PvdAGL gajn one. PvdD lose one which may be due to their internal struggles.
The BBB campaign seems to be losing steam and Mona Keijzer is getting less popular. In a three way contest voters prefer both Yesilgoz and Timmermans and even 30 percent of BBB voters prefer Yesilgoz over Keijzer as prime minister.

With current polling we could well end up with a coalition of NSC and PvdA/GL, but of course they would still need several other parties to get to a majority.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2023, 12:12:28 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2023, 12:15:47 PM by jeron »

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.
If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?

Maybe, but De Hond has overpolled PVV during the last two elections by at least four seats
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2023, 12:14:35 PM »

Peil.nl has PVV +5 and NSC -5. Pollster Maurice de Hond says the SBS6 debate was a gamechanger.
If the PVV came 1st, is there any chance of them ending up in government?
Yes, probably. In that case I could see a minority government with PVV, VVD and BBB being formed, with outside support from NSC and what is left of JA21 (useful because of their 3 Senate seats).

Why would Omtzigt want to do that? It seems quite unlikely
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2023, 04:18:20 AM »

So thatís why I saw Klaver and Timmermans warning  about a Wilders-led government earlier today.

What are the chances of potential coalition parties allowing Wilders to be PM? I assume slim, but maybe his supposedly more moderate tone has shifted things.

What a bag-fumble by Omtzigt if NSC ends up in 4th place. He had such a long time to decide whether he was willing to be PM before launching his party but he never got around to settling on an answer, and itís clearly costing him.

There won't be a Wilders led government. It would be supported by BBB, JA21 and fvd. That's about it.
As to Omtzigt if he loses this will be one of the reasons. It took him too much time to decide to start his own party. After that he wasn't clear about his political positions. He just seems to be wavering too much
I am not sure if excluding PVV did go down well with voters on the right and the same can be said for moderate voters by opting for a coalition with JA21 and SGP.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2023, 09:36:41 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2023, 09:59:40 AM by jeron »

If there was a PM from a party other than the largest, this would be for the first time in forty years.

Yes, but it happened regularly before
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2023, 10:25:28 AM »

Turnout was 40% at 15:45. In 2017, it was 43% at the time (with 81.6% total turnout).

We seem to be getting closer to 2017 turmout. It is not evenly divided over the country though. In soms towns turnout is up compared to 2017 or it is about even. Low turnout in Rotterdam. 37% at 16:15, soms cities getting close to 50% already
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2023, 10:39:06 AM »

Boy it sure looks like BBB has turned out to be just a flash in the pan. If they end up with just a paltry 4 or 5 seats, do they even survive as a party?

Of course. They have 16 seats in the senate and they are in many provincial governments. Any future government will have to negotiate with them
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2023, 01:34:11 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2023, 01:37:43 PM by jeron »

Turnout is relatively high in the north, or at least in the provinces of Drenthe and Groningen, but that is also true of the city of Groningen which is not particularly PVV-friendly.
In the east turnout is not high at all. Enschede (Omtzigt's hometown) was at 45% at 17:30, Hengelo was at 42% at 17:00 (3% lower than in 2021) and Arnhem has low turnout as well.
Some figures point to PVV doing well, but turnout in Rotterdam is low (which is the most favorable for PVV among the largest cities) and it will be lower than 2021. Turnout in Almere was an abysmal 38% at 17:00.  PVV is the second largest party in its city council and was the largest between 2010 and 2018.

So, lots of it is still unclear
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2023, 01:39:19 PM »

Does anyone have any livestreams for the election results coverage that aren't geoblocked?

A live results map site would be amazing too.

Many thanks to everyone for all the updates, especially David.

Thanks,

DC

I have used https://nos.nl/ for the past two Dutch Elections (I recall checking live updates on my phone between shifts while working as a temp swim instructor in 2017). They should also have a livestream on their youtube page when the time comes. Here's their description of the counting process.

Let me see if their map is up yet.

There is no map yet but there will be once the results start coming in.
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2023, 03:17:47 PM »

Looks like it would be very difficult to form a government-what's the pathway from this?

If it is genuinely impossible, then fresh elections. If it is just about possible, then a weak government (though there are different ways in which it might be week) which staggers on for a while (a year or so? Two?) before fresh elections.

Most likely repeat elections within a year
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2023, 03:19:06 PM »

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

No majority in the senate though and probably not a stable government anyway
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2023, 03:26:57 PM »

I mean GL-PvdA+VVD+NSC+D66 form a majority, but not sure whether it would be a good idea politically to exclude PVV from government (for VVD)

Does the prospect of Timmermans as PM make it harder than if the VVD got second? PM from third feels weird.

Frankly, I don't think Yesilgoz would be acceptable for the average PVV voter
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2023, 03:30:03 PM »

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.
Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

Or alternatively that the "tacitcal voting for the left" maybe had already taken place as much as it could up to this point? I don't really know

I know quite a few people for who don't like Timmermans and who might have voted PVDA-GL with a different leader. Timmermans is not well liked, many people think he is arrogant
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jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 676
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2023, 04:09:48 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2023, 04:18:01 PM by jeron »



Stages of grief speedrun.

In fairness, I think that guy is a dual national with a Moroccan background so he has quite a legitimate reason to fear a Wilders gov beyond normal partisan "muh side lost".

Interesting there was no predicted "gaza effect" to either sace Bij1 or bolster denk.

If the senate is problematic, is there a mechanism by which ths regions can be prematurely dissolved so a new senate can be elected?

No, regional or local councils cannot be dissolved early.
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