🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Logical]

There are also water board elections today. The vote compass for it has a lot of fun questions like combating muskrats and crayfish and allowing public fishing holes.
https://mijnstem.nl/waterschappen#!/

[Logical]

Turnout as of 3.45 pm is 29%, 3% higher than 2019. I'd say it's probably bad for the government.

[Logical]

Turnout as of 5.45 pm is 37%, up 4% compared to 2019. If this continues then final turnout will hit 60%.

In Amsterdam turnout as of 6 pm is 34,6%, up from 24,5% in 2019.

[Logical]

North Holland Exit Poll

BBB 9 (New)
VVD 8 (-1)
GL 7 (-2)
PvDA 7 (+1)
PvDD 5 (+2)
D66 4 (-2)
Volt 3 (New)
JA21 3 (New)
PVV 2 (-1)
CDA 2 (-2)
SP 2 (-1)
50+ 1 (-)
FVD 1 (-8)
CU 1 (-1)
DENK 0 (-1)

[Logical]

Overijssel Exit Poll

BBB 17 (New)
CDA 4 (-5)
VVD 4 (-2)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdA 3 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
PVV 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
D66 2 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
JA21 1 (New)
SP 1 (-2)
FvD 1 (-5)
Volt 1 (New)
50+ 1 (-)

Total massacre. RIP CDA

[Logical]

North Brabant Exit Poll

BBB 12 (New)
VVD 9 (-1)
PvdA 5 (+2)
SP 5 (-)
GL 5 (-)
D66 4 (-1)
PVV 3 (-1)
CDA 3 (-5)
JA21 2 (New)
PvdD 2 (-)
50+ 2 (-1)
Local Party 1 (-)
Volt 1 (New)
FVD 1 (-8)
CU-SGP 1 (-)

BBB dominates. Decent result for PvdA here considering everything.

[Logical]

Senate Exit Poll
BBB 15 (New)
GL/PvdA 15 (+1)
VVD 10 (-2)
D66 6 (-1)
CDA 5 (-4)
PVV 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (-1)
SP 3 (-1)
JA21 3 (New)
CU 3 (-1)
FVD 2 (-10)
Volt 2 (New)
50+ 1 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
Others 1 (-)

Government 24 (-8)

[Logical]

BBB won 58.8% of the vote in rural Tubbergen, Overijssel. Complete bloodbath for every other party. CDA lost three quarters of their vote in their former stronghold, down to 11% from 42%.

[Logical]

Everyone's favorite Calvinist theocracy of Urk:
SGP 40.5% (+0.1)
BBB 29% (New)
CU 7.9% (-9.4)
PVV 6.6% (-6.4)
FVD 5.2% (-12.4)
CDA 4.4% (-4.1)
Localist 3.4% (New)

Every other party below 1%

[Logical]

Some of my own observations
-Despite little media attention, Volt had a surprisingly good night. Had they stood in Friesland, Limburg, Zeeland and Flevoland they could've won enough for 3 senate seats.
-Traditionally left wing rurals aren't immune to the rural BBB wave
-BVNL (yet another FvD splinter) failed to win any provincial seat, but did well enough nationally to win a seat in a general election.
-In Western Netherlands, CDA held up better, losing just a quarter of their votes, in the catholic South they lost half of their vote but in Eastern rural municipalities along the German border they up to three quarters of their vote.
-SP and PVV continue their slow decline into testimonial parties
-CU had an awful election for a party with a solid base. Maintaining the current course could erode their base even further.

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Amazing own goal from Teflon Mark. After 13 years his luck finally runs out.

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Calling CU "GroenLinks with the Bible" is ironic since 2 of the 4 parties that merged to form GL were Christian left and ecologist parties. I do wonder how large the Christian left vote is now and how they split.

[Logical]

So that makes it two out of three Vice Presidents of the EC with one foot out of door.

[Logical]

A nice boost for GL-PvdA regardless of what happens next. No one likes party infighting two months before an election.

[Logical]

Turnout in selected major municipalities so far (16 15)

Amsterdam : 42.2%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/amsterdam/
Rotterdam : 37.4%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/rotterdam/
The Hague : 41.2%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/denhaag/
Utrecht : 48.2%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/utrecht/
Eindhoven : 42.3%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/eindhoven/
Groningen : 46.4%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/groningen/
Nijmegen : 47.5%
https://www.opkomstenuitslag.nl/nijmegen/

[Logical]

Turnout in selected major municipalities so far (20 45)

Amsterdam : 70% (75.7% 2021 - 78.9% 2017)
Rotterdam : 63.9%  (67.7% 2021 - 72.3% 2017)
The Hague : 68.6%  (71.9% 2021 - 75.6% 2017)
Utrecht : 79.4%  (81.7% 2021 - 83.8% 2017)
Eindhoven : 71.9% (75.1% 2021 - 78.3% 2017)
Groningen : 79.9% (81.7% 2021 - 83.4% 2017)
Nijmegen : 78.3% (80.2% 2021 - 79% 2017)

[Logical]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

[Logical]

Are there any countries where TV debates have such a provably huge impact on election results as the Netherlands? This isn't even the first time something like this has happened.

Canada?

[Logical]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Compared to the final polls it is clear that the right tactically voted for PVV while the left did not do the same for GL-PvdA. The balance between the right and left "blocs" did not shift much.

[Logical]

PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 26 (+9)
VVD 23 (-11)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 4 (-2)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Volt 2 (-1)
Denk 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1 (lol)
Bij1 0 (-1)

Welcome to Bulgaria

Updated exit poll
PVV 35 (+18)
GL-PvdA 25 (+8)
VVD 24 (-10)
NSC 20 (New)
D66 10 (-14)
BBB 7 (+6)
CDA 5 (-10)
SP 5 (-10)
PvdD 3 (-3)
FvD 3 (-5)
CU 3 (-2)
SGP 3
Denk 3
Volt 2 (-1)
JA21 1 (-2)
50Plus 1
BIJ1 0 (-1)
GL-PvdA and PvdD loses a seat
VVD and Denk gains a seat each

[Logical]

Well VVD's strategy of legitimizing Wilders and opening the door for him worked out great didn't it? Not the first time a far right party canniblizes legacy center right parties after they were legitimized.

[Logical]

Some interesting voter movements from the exit poll

NSC

PVV

CDA

VVD

GL-PvdA

D66

[Logical]

Quick count in Amsterdam
GL-PvdA 34%
VVD 12%
PVV 10%
D66 10%
NSC 7%
Denk 7%
PvdD 5%
Volt 4%
SP 3%
FvD 3%
BIJ1 2%
BBB 1%
CDA 1%

With these results BIJ1 will definitely not win a seat.

[Logical]

Why does it take them so long to count votes in the Netherlands? In Germany the votes would almost all be counted within an or two of the polls closing

Gigantic ballot papers

[Logical]

Calvinist hellhole (Urk)
SGP 48.3% (-6.2)
PVV 25.8% (+12)
NSC 6.0% (new)
BBB 5.0% (+4.9)
CU 4.1% (-4)
CDA 3.7% (-4.1)
FvD 3.7% (-5.9)
VVD 0.9% (-0.8 )
GL-PvdA 0.7% (+0.2)

First time SGP under 50% here?