Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1653511507458641923?s=46

The Russians are desperately trying to take Bakhmut before the May 9th Victory Day Parade. The tankies are going to have another parade without any victory.

[Upper Canada Tory]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1653511507458641923?s=46

The Russians are desperately trying to take Bakhmut before the May 9th Victory Day Parade. The tankies are going to have another parade without any victory.

If there's any testament to the incompetence of the Russian army, it is Bakhmut. They have been trying to take the town since August 2022 and it has been the main point of battle of the war since November, they still haven't taken it despite claims from the Russian Ministry of Defence that they control x percentage of Bakhmut's territory and while all this was taking place Russia also just happened to accidentally bomb one of its own cities. Not only that, but Bakhmut has next to zero strategic value.
It would be funny if it weren't so depressing and didn't result in so many deaths.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

Yes. Having a free press ensures less graft and corruption within the armed forces. Putin learned this last year when he discovered the truth of just how ineffective his military is.

Ukraine probably has a more transparent officer corp within the military but they absolutely do make up random propaganda for the media which are obvious lies. Nothing wrong but ots whats happening

Sure. The fact remains that they're less likely to make things up than Russia.

How would you know, you're a guy from California.

How would you know, you're a guy from Berlin Moscow Virginia

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

"Ukraine is required by the Americans only as an object of merciless exploitation of existing natural resources without a traditional population. Following such a neo-Nazi line, Washington has already turned it into a territory that millions of people are leaving en masse, seeking protection abroad from socio-economic problems and pro-fascist oppression. 30 years of upheavals organized by Washington in Ukraine have led to a halving of the population. And today the White House easily goes to continue the war with Russia to the last Ukrainian. At the same time, the preservation of Ukraine as a state is not included in the plans of the United States."

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653838878858420255?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653839371177435148?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653839950536757249?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653840994964590593?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653841767463092224?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653842577743912965?s=20

Putin's mouths have become completely lazy in their propaganda and now they are just drawing a self-portrait.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

How would you know, you're a guy from California.

How would you know, you're a guy from Berlin Moscow Virginia

Maybe from Wumao City.

[Storr]

"Ukraine is required by the Americans only as an object of merciless exploitation of existing natural resources without a traditional population. Following such a neo-Nazi line, Washington has already turned it into a territory that millions of people are leaving en masse, seeking protection abroad from socio-economic problems and pro-fascist oppression. 30 years of upheavals organized by Washington in Ukraine have led to a halving of the population. And today the White House easily goes to continue the war with Russia to the last Ukrainian. At the same time, the preservation of Ukraine as a state is not included in the plans of the United States."

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653838878858420255?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653839371177435148?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653839950536757249?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653840994964590593?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653841767463092224?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653842577743912965?s=20

Putin's mouths have become completely lazy in their propaganda and now they are just drawing a self-portrait.

It was definitely lazy propaganda. I'd seen all the points he made in other Russian media before. That's except for the Yellowstone Caldera's impending eruption leading the US to wanting to control Russia's heartland so that Americans had somewhere to migrate to after North America was made uninhabitable. That claim was so insane, I decided to share it here. The google translated quote:

"Do you remember the Yellowstone Volcano? If he wakes up, it will be an unprecedented disaster. It is capable of eruptions thousands of times greater than those known to mankind. Observations show that over the years the activity of the volcano increases, the magma in it approaches the surface at a high speed. The number of earthquakes in the surrounding caldera is also growing, reaching 2 thousand per year.

The conducted studies made it possible to simulate the course of the alleged eruption and its consequences. It is believed that the death of all life in North America is inevitable. From a chain of eruptions of other volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis and acid rains, most of the world's population will suffer. But this worries the population of America, not its politicians."

...[I didn't bother including a boring paragraph where he talks about "the problem of protecting the population population and economic infrastructure from the destructive power of volcanoes".]

"At the same time, I would like to wish the American authorities with their Yellowstone to recall folk wisdom more often. An English proverb says: "People who live in glass houses should not throw stones." Washington, which decides the fate of other states and peoples, should remember that in Pompeii the ancient Romans also lived well and were not averse to debauchery.

By the way, some in America argue that with a possible eruption, Eastern Europe and Siberia will become the safest places. Apparently, here lies the answer to the question why the Anglo-Saxon elites are so eager to take possession of the same Heartland."

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How would you know, you're a guy from California.

How would you know, you're a guy from Berlin Moscow Virginia

Maybe from Wumao City.

Wumao City is Belo Horizonte, actually.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1654032745616613376?cxt=HHwWgIC9lZmBp_QtAAAA

[DavidB.]

Last night, Ukrainian president Zelensky flew to the Netherlands with the Dutch government airplane for a trip that had been carefully kept secret until the moment he was on his way. He spoke in a closed-off joint session to both Houses of Parliament this morning and afterwards visited the International Court of Justice. I am not sure what the remainder of his program looks like, but a meeting with Prime Minister Rutte (VVD), Foreign Minister Hoekstra (CDA) and Defense Minister Ollongren (D66) - likely with a shopping list - is most definitely part of it.

Today is also the Dutch National Day of Remembrance, dedicated to WWII victims and Dutch military that died in WWII and other wars to protect freedom. Zelensky's timing has been criticized; the subject is the appropriateness of mixing up National Remembrance Day with the Ukraine war. Proponents say Zelensky is fighting for the freedom we cherish in our own country and so the subjects are intrinsically linked; opponents say this is not the right timing. There was also speculation about Zelensky delivering a speech during the main Remembrance Day ceremony at 8 PM at Dam Square in Amsterdam, which would probably be the most "controversial" in this regard.

BBB leader Caroline van der Plas (whose party is pro-Ukrainian) and PVV leader Geert Wilders decided not to attend the parliamentary session with Zelensky this morning.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1654097328284872712?s=12
Further proof it was a false flag as now Russia has quickly moved on from blaming Ukraine to blaming US

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1654097328284872712?s=12
Further proof it was a false flag as now Russia has quickly moved on from blaming Ukraine to blaming US

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1653838878858420255?s=20
*snip*

Most of the article reads like the result of the usual chauvinist brainworms, but I love how the ending suddenly pivots into "...and this is happening because America plans to evacuate to an occupied Russia when Yellowstone erupts."

Hey Vlad it’s too late to blame the US. Tucker is off the air.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1654149692186320900?s=12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1654149692186320900?s=12

I'd be mildly surprised if those 39 countries includes the US. I certainly would not be against a law allowing for us to use the military to stop it from punishing Americans (and other figures as the United States president sees fit).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1654149692186320900?s=12

I'd be mildly surprised if those 39 countries includes the US. I certainly would not be against a law allowing for us to use the military to stop it from punishing Americans (and other figures as the United States president sees fit).

Why would you be against that?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1654149692186320900?s=12

I'd be mildly surprised if those 39 countries includes the US. I certainly would not be against a law allowing for us to use the military to stop it from punishing Americans (and other figures as the United States president sees fit).

Why would you be against that?

First of all, it seems silly that it would be "illegal" to start a war, in and of itself. No, Bush invading Iraq was not and of itself a crime. It feels not only myopic, but also wasteful and unenforceable in anything resembling consistent manner.
Secondly, I refuse to accept the idea of an American president or official anyone who, in context, the helping of which would assist American interests, being held before an international court in that sort of circumstance at the very least. I'm a globalist, but I won't take it that far. Hell no.
Perhaps they can set up this "court", but the United States ought to reserve the right to stop it in its tracks the minute it treads on what is good for America's global influence. Of course, military force should not be the first option, merely the second...

[Torie]

The only real impact of  these courts is to let bad rulers know that if and when they "retire," their retirement years might not be as comfortable as otherwise.

[Woody]

Reverse Belgorod.

Ukrainians apparently sent a TB2 (Bayraktar) to their own capital. They lost connection with the drone and their own air defense shot it down.

https://twitter.com/LanguageIearner/status/1654207532242436101?cxt=HHwWioCwgY-_9...
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654197524658368512

[Woody]

Damage on the ground:

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1654205468661755906?cxt=HHwWhMC9kYDH9fQt...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1654224318673620993?s=12
https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1654181225307807744?s=12

[Pericles]

There absolutely should be a crime of aggression. Starting a war unnecessarily is an evil action and all the other crimes pale in comparison to it-they are just flow on effects from the crime. International law is clear that states should not be going to war to conquer or bully each other, and we should all agree that wars are not a good way to resolve disputes.

[Damocles]

There absolutely should be a crime of aggression. Starting a war unnecessarily is an evil action and all the other crimes pale in comparison to it-they are just flow on effects from the crime. International law is clear that states should not be going to war to conquer or bully each other, and we should all agree that wars are not a good way to resolve disputes.

Generally speaking, when you press the "Justify War" button from the Diplomacy menu, there's a non-zero chance you'll accrue enough Infamy to give the other Great Powers a free "Cut down to size" CB. This is especially true when there's a Crisis war that spawns as a direct result of you using the "Increase tensions" National Focus in a border region.

[Virginiá]

[...]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1654181225307807744?s=12

I wonder if this might be giving too much credit to Russia, tbh. A lot of Russia's military right now is drawing on extensive stocks of old heavy weapons kept in long-term storage from the Soviet days. And every day that goes by, those stocks get smaller and smaller, and they lose more and more of their best samples from those inventories. Russia doesn't have the money to mass-build tanks and other systems like the USSR. T-90Ms, their most modern tank that isn't the wunderwaffen T-14 Armata, reportedly costs >4 - 5 million each. How are they going to afford that while stilll likely under sanctions? They probably won't be able to rely on their arms exports subsidizing their own domestic purchases anymore as their credibility is shot with foreign customers and right now they are failing to fulfill existing contracts.

And this says nothing about the immense price tag of replacing all those artillery shells and multi-million dollar cruise / ballistic missiles. I think the future Russian military is probably going to be a shell of itself pre-2022.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

[...]

https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1654181225307807744?s=12

I wonder if this might be giving too much credit to Russia, tbh. A lot of Russia's military right now is drawing on extensive stocks of old heavy weapons kept in long-term storage from the Soviet days. And every day that goes by, those stocks get smaller and smaller, and they lose more and more of their best samples from those inventories. Russia doesn't have the money to mass-build tanks and other systems like the USSR. T-90Ms, their most modern tank that isn't the wunderwaffen T-14 Armata, reportedly costs >4 - 5 million each. How are they going to afford that while stilll likely under sanctions? They probably won't be able to rely on their arms exports subsidizing their own domestic purchases anymore as their credibility is shot with foreign customers and right now they are failing to fulfill existing contracts.

And this says nothing about the immense price tag of replacing all those artillery shells and multi-million dollar cruise / ballistic missiles. I think the future Russian military is probably going to be a shell of itself pre-2022.

They're not going to commit the entire Soviet reserve to Ukraine because their repair depots can only work so quickly. If and when they rebuild, they will do so with Soviet gear. Supposedly, there are a lot of "broken" USSR shells lying around which could be repaired, and we know this is true for heavier weapons like tanks etc.

If they want to recreate mass after the war, they'll be able to do this on a much faster timeline than most large countries, which would have to rely on new-build or imports. Will such a military be modern? In many respects, no, but it's not as if Russia was taking full advantage of their more modern platforms to begin with.

[Storr]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

Then for this to happen only a few days later...

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1654189235904172035?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1654173973309976576?s=20