Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

B-but muh global south solidarity!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The Orcs clearly have a demented obsession with Ukraine that they don't have with any of the other former republics (the Belarus puppet state notwithstanding), and as other posters have mentioned, they've talked from the beginning about regime change in Kyiv.

Even before Putin, the Ruscists had been inciting hatred for Chechnya and Caucasians in general, which they then had to quickly extinguish by killing outright neo-Nazis, when a civil war almost started from a pogrom at the Cherkizovsky market. Also, since the nineties and still the Ruscists hate the Baltic States even more than Ukraine.

And since the tenth years, the Ruscists have picked up the song of the neo-Nazi Limonov about the need to occupy Northern Kazakhstan and Almaty, which for them is a symbol of the Cossacks under the old name Verny. By the way, this is the reason why I was able to escape from the brainwashing that Russian propagandists are intensively conducting in Kazakhstan, including through the neo-Eurasian societies of the fascist Dugin.

And recently, the Chinese ambassador in France veiledly stated that the PRC believes Russia has the right to seize all the post-Soviet republics, and also supposedly Crimea should belong to Russia. Obviously, if the attack on Ukraine had not failed, then Russia, under the wise leadership of Xi, would immediately attack Moldova, or Georgia, or my native Kazakhstan.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1653169425749508100?s=20

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1653169429461467136?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Interestingly Kazakhstan also voted in favor of the resolution. The Central Asian countries had all abstained or were/voted absent in previous UN votes related to the war in Ukraine (iirc).

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1653036142520856584?s=20

B-but muh global south solidarity!

tbf.... Kazakhstan are also returning Russian draft dodgers back home when they caught sneaking across the border, to which they might meet a less than favorable resolution now that Russia has effectively banned military aged men from leaving the country.

There are many former Soviet Republics who are sitting on the wings a bit, waiting to see how this whole Ukraine thing plays out, and certainly not wanting to be the next in line for a Russian "Invasion", "Peace Keeping Operation", let alone a "Special Operation".

The sins of the Czars and later on in the form of Soviet "Czar" in the form of Stalin still indicate that the "chickens are coming home to roost", in the words of the great late Malcom X.

Internal colonization sometimes takes many decades before resolution, as surely the Irish might attest.

[rc18]

The UK is procuring missiles for Ukraine with ranges up to 300km, on behalf of the IFU states.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1652991835936112641?s=20

[Woody]

(POTENIALLY) MAJOR NEWS: Prigozhin/Wagner claims the head Commander of the Territorial Defenese Force of Ukraine might have been killed today (General Ihor Tantsyura), during an artillery bombing of a convoy to Bakhmut.

If true, this would be by far the highest ranking KIA in this war.
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1653392558322597889?cxt=HHwWgoC-kbLxg_ItA...

[Torie]

Back to Bakhmut again, both sides are claiming that they gained ground in the past few days, none of which can be verified.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/world/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-russia.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(POTENIALLY) MAJOR NEWS: Prigozhin/Wagner claims the head Commander of the Territorial Defenese Force of Ukraine might have been killed today (General Ihor Tantsyura), during an artillery bombing of a convoy to Bakhmut.

If true, this would be by far the highest ranking KIA in this war.
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1653392558322597889?cxt=HHwWgoC-kbLxg_ItA...

One wonders, if this is true, how much impact it would actually have on the Ukrainian war effort.

[Woody]

(POTENIALLY) MAJOR NEWS: Prigozhin/Wagner claims the head Commander of the Territorial Defenese Force of Ukraine might have been killed today (General Ihor Tantsyura), during an artillery bombing of a convoy to Bakhmut.

If true, this would be by far the highest ranking KIA in this war.
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1653392558322597889?cxt=HHwWgoC-kbLxg_ItAAAA

One wonders, if this is true, how much impact it would actually have on the Ukrainian war effort.

TBF I don't think he's dead. I know Syrsky visited Bakhmut, but it's been worsening since then. So it seems very risky sending a guy like that to the city. We'll find out soon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(POTENIALLY) MAJOR NEWS: Prigozhin/Wagner claims the head Commander of the Territorial Defenese Force of Ukraine might have been killed today (General Ihor Tantsyura), during an artillery bombing of a convoy to Bakhmut.

If true, this would be by far the highest ranking KIA in this war.
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1653392558322597889?cxt=HHwWgoC-kbLxg_ItAAAA

One wonders, if this is true, how much impact it would actually have on the Ukrainian war effort.

TBF I don't think he's dead. I know Syrsky visited Bakhmut, but it's been worsening since then. So it seems very risky sending a guy like that to the city. We'll find out soon.

It feels like Russia sending in Shoigu to "cheer up the troops in Bakhmut" would end just as well.

[Woody]

AFU is denying his death - “We officially refute this claim. We do not comment on any stuffing of enemy propaganda. Everyone is alive and well"

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/05/2/7400344/index.amp

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It feels quite possible Wagner shelled the convoy and wounded the general and said he might have died, and then he recovered fully and UA denied the claim publicly.

[CumbrianLefty]

I do wish people would stop mis-using the word "refute" though.

(unless the Ukrainian side has cast-iron *proof* he is still alive, in which case its usage is correct)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I do wish people would stop mis-using the word "refute" though.

(unless the Ukrainian side has cast-iron *proof* he is still alive, in which case its usage is correct)

Perhaps using the word in this way should be called a "half-refutation".

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

[Woody]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

[Torie]

I do wish people would stop mis-using the word "refute" though.

(unless the Ukrainian side has cast-iron *proof* he is still alive, in which case its usage is correct)

The writer meant dispute. English is not the writer's first language.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

A country is democratic when it has elections, a free press, and freedom of speech. Wagner is a PMC last seen executing one of their own convict soldiers with a sledgehammer. Yes, I do think the Ukrainian government is more trustworthy than Wagner.

That doesn't mean we should trust whatever the Ukrainian government says, but I believe them over Wagner.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

A country is democratic when it has elections, a free press, and freedom of speech. Wagner is a PMC last seen executing one of their own convict soldiers with a sledgehammer. Yes, I do think the Ukrainian government is more trustworthy than Wagner.

That doesn't mean we should trust whatever the Ukrainian government says, but I believe them over Wagner.

None of what you just postulated, even if it was true, is any modicum of proof for your claims here.
If there is any difference, if anything it would be the opposite of how you are putting it; if you can't censor in a total way and you can't stop people from saying anything through direct means, then the solution is to flood the space with untrue things so that you don't lose credibility. You have more incentive to lie, not less.

[2952-0-0]

None of what you just postulated, even if it was true, is any modicum of proof for your claims here.
If there is any difference, if anything it would be the opposite of how you are putting it; if you can't censor in a total way and you can't stop people from saying anything through direct means, then the solution is to flood the space with untrue things so that you don't lose credibility. You have more incentive to lie, not less.

But, in a democracy, you are free to investigate and question official claims. Hence, Ukraine had to officially walk back some of its more absurd claims, such as the improbable deaths of Russian generals (remember then?). Becoming known as a liar would also open the door for the enemy to spread disinformation without consequence. On the other hand, questioning official Russian claims means you will be "discrediting the Russian army" or "spreading fake news" (best), or your bullet-strewn body will be found on the ground under an open window (worst). It also means that enemy disinformation (such as rumours about Putin's health) cannot be credibly refuted even when they are actually false.

[John Dule]

I’m shocked Wagner isn’t a reliable source of information

You sure? Because not long ago you were quoting the same man like crazy when he was fearmongering.

Yes, I'm completely sure Wagner PMC is not a reliable source for a conflict that Wagner PMC is fighting in.

This logic is not inherently wrong, but it needs to be applied equally.

Ukraine is a democratic country, Wagner is a PMC staffed by convicts.

You think militaries in countries arbitrarily labelled as "democratic" are suddenly less likely to make things up or deny things?
You sweet, summer child...

Yes. Having a free press ensures less graft and corruption within the armed forces. Putin learned this last year when he discovered the truth of just how ineffective his military is.