Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[mileslunn]

Any reason why PSOE doing well so far?  Is it mostly more left wing areas coming in so far and based on results so far, what is most likely outcome?  I noticed Madrid hasn't reported which I suspect helps PP.

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

Rest assured there are seperatists and especially senior figures of the Procès who are hoping for a PP-Vox majority. It would be the resurrection they need after a shambolic few years since 2017 and divisions between ERC and Junts. The morale of civil society orgs like Omnium and ANC is at rock bottom too. They know Sanchez is destroying them through a trench warfare tactic.

[Mike88]

29.62% of precincts reporting:

32.7% PSOE, 133
30.0% PP, 127
11.9% Vox, 33
11.3% Sumar, 29

PSOE+Sumar= 162
PP+Vox= 160

[Mike88]

The likelihood of a second election this year is growing by the minute.

[Lumine]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power? It's really much different from Germany or Austria.

It bears reminding that Sanchez has made a career of opposing any sort of collaboration or cooperation with PP - once leading to his original ouster by the PSOE regional barons after he kept blocking Rajoy in 2016 -, a policy which isn't necessarily shared by all of his party, but which he's been successful in maintaining.

One might argue that said attitude only empowers extreme parties and contributes to government deadlock, but from a cynical point of view, one could argue that stance by Sanchez may have spared the PSOE from undergoing "Pasokification" and being surpassed by Podemos when they were at their strongest.

[kaoras]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

[Zinneke]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power?

Funny how this talking point is only ever used when the right win. PSOE could have entered a coalition with PP instead of radical left Podemos after the last election too.

Obviously you are trolling but it was Albert Rivera who forced Pedro Sanchez to turn towards his left and find Podemos as an ally.

Also, PSOE and PP cannot be seen to be collaborating with each other, the last 10 years have been about the narrative of the "threat to bipartidismo". It would be terminal for them with the competition to their Left and Right.

[Oryxslayer]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power? It's really much different from Germany or Austria.

Funny how this talking point is only ever used when the right win. PSOE could have entered a coalition with PP instead of radical left Podemos after the last election too.

Said talk was actually more common a few years back when C's, PP, and PSOE were all polling more or less the same amount of votes. But the C's handlers didn't like that, among many other reasons, and so they tried to become the new PP. And when that failed, the dominos fell one by one quite rapidly.


On another note, PSOE currently leads the vote in Madrid Commune and City for a moment there, albeit with <2% of the vote in.

[President Johnson]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

[BigSerg]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

[jaichind]

29.62% of precincts reporting:

32.7% PSOE, 133
30.0% PP, 127
11.9% Vox, 33
11.3% Sumar, 29

PSOE+Sumar= 162
PP+Vox= 160

Should we not add UPN to the PP+VOX bloc?

[Oryxslayer]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

Rest assured there are seperatists and especially senior figures of the Procès who are hoping for a PP-Vox majority. It would be the resurrection they need after a shambolic few years since 2017 and divisions between ERC and Junts. The morale of civil society orgs like Omnium and ANC is at rock bottom too. They know Sanchez is destroying them through a trench warfare tactic.

If I was a separatist I would want as many seats as possible. Not to enter government,  but to keep forcing as many repeat elections.  But I'm not, so I can't comment with any determination.

[kaoras]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

42% and the right is at 161. Madrid, urban Andalucía, Ceuta and Melilla will get them to 170-172 and that's it.

Edit: 160 now lol

[Logical]

I've seen enough.
PP + VOX + UPN will not win a majority (176 seats)

[jeron]

29.62% of precincts reporting:

32.7% PSOE, 133
30.0% PP, 127
11.9% Vox, 33
11.3% Sumar, 29

PSOE+Sumar= 162
PP+Vox= 160

Should we not add UPN to the PP+VOX bloc?

You could but it is only one seat. And some parties could be added to the psoe/sumar bloc

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

Rest assured there are seperatists and especially senior figures of the Procès who are hoping for a PP-Vox majority. It would be the resurrection they need after a shambolic few years since 2017 and divisions between ERC and Junts. The morale of civil society orgs like Omnium and ANC is at rock bottom too. They know Sanchez is destroying them through a trench warfare tactic.

If I was a separatist I would want as many seats as possible. Not to enter government,  but to keep forcing as many repeat elections.  But I'm not, so I can't comment with any determination.

No to the idea of repeat elections, because that's not taking into account voter tiredness in Catalonia in particular. I'm sure the average separatist that abstained, abstained out of being fed up with the Moncloa system and disillusionment in general, but certain senior figures of the Catalan nationalist movement knew that a PP-VOx government was the only way to reinvigorate a secessionist movement. Junts are taking a more hard-line stance vs Sanchez and their vote vs ERC might have indicated a shift in attitude of both but both have under-performed, many probably stayed home thinking this wasn't their fight. It inadvertently may have helped Sanchez and PSOE a lot.


EDIT : Looks like there is for the first time in a while, a non-independentist majority of seats allocated in Catalonia.

[jaichind]

If the  Catalonia regionalist parties do lose a bunch of seats then post-election I suspect they are less likely to back a PSOE government as they look to regain lost ground for the next election.

[Red Velvet]

I've seen enough.
PP + VOX + UPN will not win a majority (176 seats)

Yeah, likely will finish closer to 170.

That kinda worries me though, because no one reaching 176 means chaos and a new election very soon where the right will likely expand.

Ideal scenario would be PP+Vox+UPN finishing with 175 and depending of, idk, CC to form a majority? They wouldn’t get anything done and Vox in power would be toxic for PP.

[kaoras]

At 58% PP finally passes PSOE 131-130, but the right is still stuck at 162.

Also, serious possibility that PSOE remains the most voted party.

[jaichind]

PP finally overtakes PSOE in terms of seats.  Of course, the chances of a Right-wing majority are out.  I doubt the Right win bloc even makes it even to 170

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Right is now climbing. It's at 164 with 62% in.
But, likely, too little too late.

[Logical]

CIS will be the most accurate pollster lmao. Incredible. After being poo pooed by everyone.

[Mike88]

Alliances so far:

PSOE+Sumar+ERC+Bildu+PNV+BNG = 177
PP+Vox+UPN+CC = 166

Junts = 7

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the political differences between Ceuta and Melilla? What explains the former going PSOE and the latter going PP?

[jeron]

Alliances so far:

PSOE+Sumar+ERC+Bildu+PNV+BNG = 177
PP+Vox+UPN+CC = 166

Junts = 7

But CC said they weren't supporting a government that includes Vox, didn't they?