Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/meme_ec/status/1369661033409822723

Sums it up quite well, IMO. My opinion is that this could backfire spectacularly. If there are elections in May, what will be the pandemic situation during that time? There is already talk of a 4th wave. Also, Ayuso is the favourite, but how will voters react to this? Especially in a time of deep social/economic crisis. She could pretty much have surprise with a combination of a possible 4th wave, the economic crisis and low turnout and the Catalan elections showed us that the only party, on the right, that benefits from low turnout is Vox.

We'll see.

[Mike88]

So, it seems that the thing that started all of this, the Murcia no confidence vote, is likely to fail after all. At least that's what the PP is saying, that they have 3 C's Murcia MPs that will vote against.

Also, a national poll by Simple Lógica has Vox surpassing PP and becoming the 2nd largest party:

27.1% PSOE
18.5% Vox
17.5% PP
11.0% UP
  7.6% C's

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Honestly if this gets confirmed, it would be beyond hilarious. Vox is helping those on the left to STOP THE STEAL! Never thought I'd say that

https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2021/03/12/cs-propone-a-los-3-diputados-murcianos-expulsados-de-vox-apoyar-la-mociongobierno-murcia-1477268.html

What a total trainwreck this is becoming. These 3 MPs are now independent, right? Or are they still Vox party members?

Yeah, pretty sure they are basically independents. They certainly have nowhere to go inside Vox so I could see them being tempted with some good old corruption

Yes, normally when MPs are expelled from party caucuses, they are also expelled from the party itself. Curious they are willing to bring down the PP regional government and help prop up a C's-PSOE deal. But, honestly, right now C's is just doing the longest suicidal scene in history.

[Mike88]

A new Madrid poll from Metroscopia. I know the other polls we've gotten since Ayuso called for elections aren't exactly quality polls, but this is still an outlier since it has Ayuso basically winning in a landslide.

Plus, this poll is giving zero seats to C's. The only that had the same result was Electomania, but they aren't a "real" polling company. The others still gave C's some seats.

[Mike88]

Well, it gets better still. There is confirmation that Cs is in talk with 3 Vox MPs who were expelled from the party after losing some power struggle; to have the former Vox MPs support the no confidence vote. If they did do that, then there would be a majority again.

Well, that attempt also failed:

The three critical MPs of Vox in Murcia will support López Miras and vote against the motion.

[Mike88]

Another poll:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1370504792754257927

[Mike88]

Weird move by Iglesias. Don't know his real motives, but my hunch is that he wanted to leave the government, for a long time now, as the relation between him and Sanchéz is going from bad to worse, not to mention between PSOE and UP. Plus, after the PSOE and C's disastrous attempt to remove the Murcia premier and failed attempt to avoid an election in Madrid, Iglesias may think that he can wound Sanchéz in this election by weakening the PSOE candidate and dividing the left vote, as he has no chance of winning. However, like Tack said, Iglesias isn't that popular within UP and outside of it, thus this move by Iglesias could backfire.

[Mike88]

So, the second Investiture vote for Pere Aragonès failed. New negotiations will start. The main clash between ERC and Junts seems to be Puigdemont role in the future government. Parties now have until May 26 to avoid new elections.

[Mike88]

So, the second Investiture vote for Pere Aragonès failed. New negotiations will start. The main clash between ERC and Junts seems to be Puigdemont role in the future government. Parties now have until May 26 to avoid new elections.

The role of Puigdemont through an instrument called "Council of the Republic". Yet another episode of the perennial struggle within the ñro-independence bloc. In the end ERC and JxCAT will reach an agreement, in order to prevent that Salvador Illa and the PSC get more votes and seats in a new election

Maybe, but I'm not going to underestimate the incompetence of parties, especially in Spain, that go against their own interests.

[Mike88]

I know everybody is talking about the Madrid elections, but what's the likelihood of a second election in Catalonia this year, right now? The last election was more than 2 months ago and there's no government yet, and if in a month there's no deal, an election is called again.

[Mike88]

The trends on the left are benefiting Más Madrid and hurting the PSOE. Could there be a political crisis, in the country, if PSOE polls third and Podemos also disappoints?

[Mike88]

So, now Ayuso almost, also, received bullets in her mail. The postal services in Barcelona intercepted a package with bullets addressed to her.

[Mike88]

Former PM Zapatero has also been sent a letter with two bullets. Ominous trend...

Spain, get ahold of yourself!!

[Mike88]

Turnout update 1pm:

2021: 28.44% (+2.26%)
2019: 26.18%

[Mike88]

RTVE says that with the mail ballots, turnout could reach 80%.

About the exit polls/predictions, the results are fairly what was expected, IMO.

[Mike88]

PSOE has only won in El Atazar. Everything else, so far, is a sea of PP blue.

[Mike88]

Ángel Gabilondo, PSOE candidate, was rushed to Hospital this afternoon because of a heart problem. He got a Covid shot earlier today.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1390342661652066308

He has also resigned from his seat in the Madrid Assembly.

[Mike88]

First poll after the Madrid elections:

Demoscopia y Servicios poll for ESdiario newspaper:

Vote share %:

26.3% PP, 115 seats
25.3% PSOE, 107
16.9% Vox, 61
10.5% UP, 19
  5.1% Más País, 8
  3.4% ERC, 12
  2.7% JxCat, 10
  2.3% C's, 1
  7.5% Others, 17

43.2% PP+Vox, 176 seats (Majority)
40.9% PSOE+UP+Más País, 134

Poll conducted between 5 and 6 May 2021. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

[Mike88]

This must be the first poll that has the PP in the lead since forever.

First PP lead in a poll since January 2019.

[Mike88]

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

Welcome to the club, my friend. We have that since 2010 and you're still lucky because, from what I read, you will pay only 1 cent per Km. A highway trip between Porto and Viana do Castelo, in the area I live, costs 3,85 euros. Using the Spanish proposal, it would cost just 0,62 euros. I wish we had these prices here.

[Mike88]

Another one:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391027366139506688

[Mike88]

And another one:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1391644376170958853

It's basically clear that the Madrid election results had a national impact.

[Mike88]

Catalonia: At the last minute, ERC and Junts finally agreed in forming a coalition. However, I don't understand why did ERC gave more ministerial posts to Junts rather than to them, as Junts is the junior partner. This could backfire in the near future. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Apparently the CUP was instrumental in this last minute agreement. I don't even try to understand why Junts gets more portfolios. This is Catalonia and Convergents always win, even when they have changed their name and pretend to have broken the links to their past. More than once ERC people reached the conclusion that Junts folks are untrustworthy and still cave in

Exactly, all of this is very strange not to mention that the most important portfolios are all given to Junts. Like I said in my post above, this government will probably not be a stable one.