Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[jeron]

Looks like Teruel no Existe 😔

Yes, i do feel sorry for them. I wonder why their voters turned their backs on them

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

That is false and delirious. The only reason why the Psoe won in Catalonia is precisely because there was a huge abstention of more than ten points, that abstention did a lot of damage to the separatists.

I have spent over a decade of my life following and studying election results in Spain. Anyone who is actually interested in Spanish psephology can see that the massive shifts in support in rural Catalonia cannot be explained by a rise in abstention.

As an example, here are results from some town in Catalonia (Avinyo):
Junts - 27% (no change)
PSOE - 26% (+19%)
ERC - 21% (-14%)
Sumar - 7% (+2%)
CUP - 5% (-10%)


Virtually no one backed non-nationalist parties last time -  these parties combined for far less than 20% of the vote. Now, summing over Sumar and PSOE alone gets you to 33%. No, this cannot be explained by abstention, it's obvious.

[DavidB.]

Sanchez (Spain's smartest political actor, verry Rutteian in many ways) should be favored in a second election. To reverse this, Feijoo should immediately resign and let Diaz Ayuso do the job.

[Storr]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

Where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Teruel no Existe 😔

Yes, i do feel sorry for them. I wonder why their voters turned their backs on them

Most likely their voter base just isn't enough for a seat at least not yet.

[BigSerg]

I think that, if the right is really desperate to govern, they could grant all possible privileges to the PNV, perhaps a referendum for more autonomy. In fact the PNV has supported the PP in some cases even with Vox already present in the Cortes. Of course this would provoke the implosion of the right wing in the next elections.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties.

Will this trust be regained by Catalonian parties sabotaging a government that is preferred to the Spanish right (maybe we can debate the popularity of Sanchez but not the preference for him over Feijoo)? Maybe if you endorse magical thinking. Catalonian nationalists are magical thinkers, in love with delusions and danger, so I don't discount the possibility they do something stupid. But I don't think it would work out for them...

[kaoras]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

But where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

From no one, that's why the right HAD to get to at least 174

[jaichind]

Sanchez has just arrived tat the PSOE headquarters in Madrid.  Supporters broke into a chant of “presidente, presidente, presidente.”

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

Where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

And frankly, where would they get CC from?

[PSOL]

Sanchez (Spain's smartest political actor, verry Rutteian in many ways) should be favored in a second election. To reverse this, Feijoo should immediately resign and let Diaz Ayuso do the job.

Think PP just blew their only chance at winning, which means an Ayuso leadership would mean deadlock but with PP cannibalizing more of the VOX vote. Please let it be, this is the best timeline

[jaichind]

In a cruel irony it seems the future of Spanish politics might come down to Puigdemont

[BigSerg]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

Where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

PNV, but they would have to sacrifice a lot and practically resign themselves to die in the next elections.

[Red Velvet]

I think that, if the right is really desperate to govern, they could grant all possible privileges to the PNV, perhaps a referendum for more autonomy. In fact the PNV has supported the PP in some cases even with Vox already present in the Cortes. Of course this would provoke the implosion of the right wing in the next elections.

Yup. Dream scenario.

Right destroyed for next elections while only getting a minimal and exact 176 with the centrist Basque Independists muahahahaha. Humiliating for Vox.

That won’t happen though. I bet they don’t even try to form a government - which they could, by reaching to PNV - so that there will be new elections in six months or so.

[kaoras]

We still need to see if the CERA vote changes anything but this seems like total gridlock.

[Battista Minola 1616]

PP-Vox choking... you love to see it! I have a question, are we certain CC would vote for Feijóo? Could they get bribed by the Left? They don't strike me as particularly committed to one side.

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties.

Will this trust be regained by Catalonian parties sabotaging a government that is preferred to the Spanish right (maybe we can debate the popularity of Sanchez but not the preference for him over Feijoo)? Maybe if you endorse magical thinking. Catalonian nationalists are magical thinkers, in love with delusions and danger, so I don't discount the possibility they do something stupid. But I don't think it would work out for them...

Well their main priority will be Catalan regional elections, not currying favour with PSC/PSOE voters, I would also say quietly that they believe that they do not care about Vox getting in and some even want it for reasons I elaborated.

This is also something I do not understand and would not endorse, but the idea that the Catalan parties will look at these results and not think about changing strategy, especially as they are also losing badly in the polls in the regionals, is absurd. They are stuck between fresh elections and voter tiredness in their ranks increasing or backing a Sanchez goverment with no drama. The third option is escalate and ask for a referendum and get that issue back into the salience it needs to be for them to gain back credibility amongst the civil society in particular. THey know its fantasist, but what matters for them is that after Corona and Ukraine the Catalan national quesiton is salient again, not necessarily their demands being filled or Vox in the corridors of Moncloa.

[jaichind]

Looks like PP has won a majority in the Senate.

[Former President tack50]

PP-Vox choking... you love to see it! I have a question, are we certain CC would vote for Feijóo? Could they get bribed by the Left? They don't strike me as particularly committed to one side.

No, it is far from certain (and IMO depends on whether Vox gets cabinet ministers or not); but CC is the only regionalist party that even has a slim chance of supporting a PP-Vox government.

PNV has a 0% chance and call me crazy, but I do not think that the party of a certain Carles Puigdemont will support a PP-Vox government

[Logical]

We still need to see if the CERA vote changes anything but this seems like total gridlock.

There are only about 2-3 seats that could flip between the blocs. Second elections is still the most likely outcome.

[Oryxslayer]

In a cruel irony it seems the future of Spanish politics might come down to Puigdemont

Well then there's only two options:

Keep forcing new elections to bring the government to your (from their perspective) unreasonable demands, or maybe the voters overall will change their mind without you.

Let PP and Vox in without actually voting in their favor, and play towards accelerationism.

[Vosem]

PP-Vox choking... you love to see it! I have a question, are we certain CC would vote for Feijóo? Could they get bribed by the Left? They don't strike me as particularly committed to one side.

No, they could very easily go for either side. At the state level they've backed both sides, although the right more commonly; at the national level over the past few elections they've backed the right (against Sanchez in 2019, abstained in 2018, for Rajoy in 2016) but they are winnable for both.

[Vosem]

In a cruel irony it seems the future of Spanish politics might come down to Puigdemont

Well then there's only two options:

Keep forcing new elections to bring the government to your (from their perspective) unreasonable demands, or maybe the voters overall will change their mind without you.

Let PP and Vox in without actually voting in their favor, and play towards accelerationism.

Surely "let PSOE in without actually voting in their favor" is also an option here; mathematically it looks slightly easier than letting in PP/Vox? Though I'm assuming that ERC would be willing to vote for Sanchez explicitly. If I'm wrong, then those are indeed the two options; PP/Vox and all the Catalan parties together are a very solid 'blocking majority' if both groups are committed to forcing new elections.

[jeron]

PP-Vox choking... you love to see it! I have a question, are we certain CC would vote for Feijóo? Could they get bribed by the Left? They don't strike me as particularly committed to one side.

No, it is far from certain (and IMO depends on whether Vox gets cabinet ministers or not); but CC is the only regionalist party that even has a slim chance of supporting a PP-Vox government.

PNV has a 0% chance and call me crazy, but I do not think that the party of a certain Carles Puigdemont will support a PP-Vox government

https://www.canarias7.es/politica/votara-investidura-vox-bildu-valorara-iniciativas-20230624180252-nt.html