Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Elections in Catalonia mark the end of the electoral cycle and the Spanish elections thread was getting too long. So I locked the old thread and start a new one in order to continue discussing recent election results, polls or political developments. Here are some links that might be of interest:

Catalan elections precinct map from eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html

Interactive graphs explaining the demographics of the February 14 vote, by bloc (pro-independence vs rest of parties) and party

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/demografia-14f-vota-grupo-social-elecciones-catalanas_1_7218718.html#click=https://t.co/PVSniqliOP

Election analysis with turnout and party interactive maps from ctxt (context and action)

https://ctxt.es/es/20210201/Politica/35074/Mario-Rios-Fernandez-Julian-Claramunt-analisis-votos-elecciones-Catalunya.htm

[palandio]

Link to the old thread for those who want to read the old posts:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313463.2200

[Zinneke]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

[Estrella]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

I at least commend Valls for not being so dumb as to say that by "Catalan Mario Draghi" he means himself. Of course, that's almost certainly what he was insunating, but he didn't make himself look quite as stupid.

[Velasco]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Manuel Valls says that he doesn't know who could be the "Catalan Mario Draghi" and I fail to see a candidate. I would concede that Catalan nationalists have not proven to be very competent in government, but that's my personal opinion and I wouldn't go as far Mr. Valls. I don't think they are unable to govern, but certainly they have been focused on other things. As for the claim that being nationalist and left-wing are incompatible, I would argue that even a left-wing Spanish nationalism is possible in spite of the Franco's legacy.

For the record, there exist advocates of a concentration government in Madrid (I get it'd be a PSOE-PP-Cs coalition, excluding UP and Vox), but I would argue the outcome of the Catalan elections does not favor that alternative. Also, the people supporting that idea have a strong desire to get rid of Pedro Sánchez (aka Mr Resilience). While there is not an apparent alternative to the current government, coalition partners PSOE and UP and embarked in a suicidal game (meanwhile Vox is on the rise)

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-02-22/spains-governing-coalition-partners-it-cant-go-on-like-this.html

After just one year of life, Spain’s governing coalition is showing clear signs of fatigue. The Socialist Party (PSOE) is accusing its junior partner Unidas Podemos of behaving simultaneously like the government and the opposition. And the leftist group is charging the Socialists with failing to honor signed agreements on issues like capping the price of rent.

While there is no shared vision, ministers and political leaders from both groups agree on one thing: “It can’t go on like this.”

Last week was especially tough. It began with a clash over equal rights policy involving the PSOE unilaterally registering initiatives for congressional debate on a subject that falls under the purview of the Equality Ministry, run by Unidas Podemos. Meanwhile, the PSOE is upset that its partner reached out to other parties in a bid to prevent its own “Ley Zerolo” equality project from even being admitted for discussion in the Congress of Deputies.

The week ended with a heated argument over statements made by some Unidas Podemos leaders expressing support for the rapper Pablo Hasél, who was recently jailed for social media posts praising terrorism. His arrest triggered several nights of protests and street violence in Catalonia and elsewhere.

But the deeper trouble lies above all in housing, pension reform and other decisions of an economic nature that require decisions on how to spend the €72 billion from the European recovery fund. This includes deciding whether the bulk of the funds should go towards large projects that would benefit big Spanish multinationals, or towards sectors with smaller companies.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE and his deputy Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Unidas Podemos, are due to meet in the coming days to try to reduce the tension, which is affecting all ongoing negotiations and interfering with the government’s day-to-day operations, as several ministers have admitted.  

In other news, today is the  anniversary of the 1981 failing coup attempt. Remember that king Juan Carlos has ¡fled' (or has been 'banished' because of his sins) and currently lives in the United Arab Emirates  

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-02-23/spains-king-felipe-vi-pays-tribute-to-juan-carlos-i-for-role-in-foiling-1981-coup-attempt.html

 Speaking at a ceremony to commemorate the 40th anniversary of an attempted coup d’état in Spain, King Felipe VI paid tribute to the “resolve and authority” of his father, emeritus king Juan Carlos I during the night of February 23, 1981. The then-monarch’s actions, Felipe said, were “decisive for the defense and triumph of democracy.”

Today marked the first time that the Spanish king has expressly made reference to Juan Carlos since the latter left Spain last August in the midst of a growing scandal over his private finances. The speech was given by King Felipe at a solemn event in the Congress of Deputies, the lower house of parliament and the location where the coup attempt played out four decades ago.

I think the most obvious candidate to be the  "Spanish Mario Draghi" would be our Economy minister Nadia Calviño, who is a well-respected technocrat with a vast experience in EU institutions

(Maybe Estrella is right about Manuel Valls' intentions, lol)

[njwes]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

[Former President tack50]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Can't wait for Manuel Valls to run for mayor of Milano or something whenever Italy has local elections

[Velasco]

Profile of the abstentionists in the last Catalan elections with clickable maps

https://stories.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210225/36039/el-perfil-del-abstencionista-elecciones-catalanas

Nearly 2.5 million of Catalans didn't show up in the February 14 elections. The pandemic and the sovereigntist process weariness are reported as major factors. 41% of the 947 Catalan municipalities had record abstention and 79% recorded the highest levels in the last 15 years. Abstention has increased everywhere, but there are remarkable diferences between geographical areas.

Cross-checking of precinct results with socodemographic data permits a first approximation to the abstentionist's profile, pending post-election surveys.

The case of el Montmell, a municipality located in Tarragona province (Baix Penedès), is aradigmatic. Turnout in el Montmell decreased by 40%, from 72.59% in 2017 to 32.54% in 2021 (the lowest in all Catalonia)

Election results in el Montmell. Notice the sharp Cs decline

2021                           2017

PSC 104 (25.55%)        Cs 309 (38.87%)
ERC 82 (20.15%)          ERC 147 (19.49%)
Vox 67 (16.46%)          PSC 128 (16.1%)
JxCAT 60 (14.74%)       JxCAT 83 (10.44%)
ECP 30 (7.37%)            ECP 47 (5.91%)
CUP 24 (5.9%)              PP 44 (5.53%)
Cs 20 (4.91%)              CUP 27 (3.4%)
PP 9 (2.21%)

Demographic indicators from this municipality tell that per capita income is below average (22,000 Euros), 30% of the workforce is employed in construction and unemployment exceeds 40%

On the opposite extreme we have the municipality of Sant Pere Sallavinera, a tiny village (155 inhabitants) located in Barcelona province (l'Anoia). Turnout decreased only by 1%, from 85.48% in 2017 to 84.55% in 2021

2021                           2017

JxCAT 37 (36.63%)        JxCAT 60 (56.6%)
ERC 27 (26.73%)           ERC 27 (25.47%)
PDeCAT 16 (15.84%)          
CUP 10 (9,9%)               CUP 4 (3.77%)
PSC 3 (2.97%)               PSC 4 (3.77%)
PP 2 (1.9%)                   PP 4 (3.77%)
ECP 2 (1.98%)              ECP 3 (2.83%)
Cs 1 (0.99%)                 Cs 2 (1.89%)
Vox 1 (0.99%)

Per capita income: 41,000 euros

These extreme cases are not anecdotal, rather they reflect a general pattern. As a general rule abstention peaked in low income precincts, which tend to support parties opposed to Catalan independence. Turnout also decreased in areas with higher income and those with a stronger pro-independence vote, albeit to a lesser degree. Extreme cases in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region can be found in precincts of Badalona )el Pomar neighbourhood) and Sant Cugat (Eixample). Abstention in el Pomar (per capita income: 23,000) peaked to nearly 70% in 2021, while in 2017 it was between 15% and 22% (dependng on precinct). In Sant Cugat Eixample (per capita income: 80,000) abstention reached 24% in 2021, which is 14% higher than previous election.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Can't wait for Manuel Valls to run for mayor of Milano or something whenever Italy has local elections

All of the four largest Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin) have mayoral elections this year, although the date is still unclear. Bologna, which is the seventh-largest city and is notoriously a stronghold for the centre-left, also goes to the polls this year.

[Velasco]

Leading party by municipality in the 2021 Catalan elections

[Velasco]

Turnout including voters abroad (CERA) falls to 51.3% (79.1% in 2017)

https://resultats.parlament2021.cat/resultados/0/catalunya

Gains and losses in raw votes

PSC +48,107
ERC -330.280
JxCAT+PDeCAT -300,645 (JUNTSxCAT in 2017)
VOX +218,121 (new)
CUP -5,322
ECP -131,015
Cs -951,126
PP -76,217

Pro-independence parties: 51.3%
Rest of parties: 47.9%
Blank votes: 0.8%

[Velasco]

Nació Digutal: "The ANC (Catalan National Assrmbly, grassroots pro-independence organization) calls for a concentration government that doesn't 'waste' the 52% of the votes (actually 51 %)"

Lluis Orriols (Pol Sci professor): "The 'concentration' government is actually the minimum winning coalition"

Orriols makes an pbvious remark. The question is that the ANC regarding the pro-independence coalition a concentration government reflects a mentality. For these people there exist two different nations in Catalonia,  depending on which parties you vote and which is your first language (Catalan or Spanish). I heard to Orriols recently that the divide between Catalan and Spanish speakers (most Catalans are bilingual, so it's more accurate to talk about primary languages) resembles that of Belgium in today's Catalonia


https://twitter.com/LluisOrriols/status/1366118813473927168?s=19

[Former President tack50]

I am still surprised that despite getting only like 3% of the vote, PDeCat still managed to win in several municipalities, even if those were all very small ones

[Velasco]

Comarcas ('counties') and municipalities won by party

JxCAT: 24 comarcas and 561 municipalities
ERC: 10 comarcas and 264 municipalities
PSC: 8 comarcas and 106 municipalities
PDeCAT: 7 municipalities
CUP: 6 municipalities
VOX: 2 municipalities
PP: 1 municipality

Population density by municipality (2009)




-There are 11 municipaities above 100,000 inhabitants, including Barcelona (this municipality exceeds 1 million). The PSC won pluralities in 8, ERC in 2 and JxCAT in 1. In 2017 Cs came first in 10 and JxCAT in 1

The PSC won pluralities in Barcelona, l'Hospitalet, Terrassa, Badalona, Sabadell, Tarragona, Mataro and Santa Coloma de Gramenet

ERC  came first in Lleida and Reus.

Junts came first in Girona

-There are 12 municipalities with populations between 50 001 and 100,000. All of them are located in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region except Manresa, which is in Barcelona province but located inland. The PSC came first in 10 and JxCAT in 2 (Sant Cugat and Manresa)

Additionally there are 41 municioalities with populations between 20,001 and 50,000. All municipalities exceeding 20,000 inhabitatnts are regarded "urban" in Spain, This group includes metropolitan and coastal municipalities (mostly tourist resorts, some industrial towns), as well as certain inland regional centers l. ERC and JxCAT won more pluralities in this group of municipalities, but I feel lazy to tally the exact amount

-The PDeCAT came first in 7 municipalities, 6 in Lleida province and 1 in Tareagona. The largest of these municipalities is Aitona; its population amounts some 2,530 and it's located not far from the town of Lleida

-The CUP came first in 6 municipalities, even smaller in population size, scattered through the four provinces

-Vox came first in Vilamalla (Girona province, near Figueres) and la Pobla de Mafumet (near Tarragona). The populations are 1150 and 3430 respectively

-The PP came first in the municipality of Gimenells i el Pla de la Font, located in Lleida province next to the Aragonese border. It has a population of 1170 and a PP mayor which was formerly a PSC one

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so events out of nowhere are moving very quickly, but there is going to be a PSOE-Cs led no confidence vote in the Region of Murcia (as well as its capital of Murcia city), allegedly because of PP being very corrupt there.

PSOE-Cs do add up to a majority in both places but I think there might be defections from Cs; though UP might support it anyways.

If this no confidence vote is successful, a PSOE-Cs government will be assembled, for the first time since 1995 PP will be in opposition. It is going to be a 2 year rental though as Murcia is the best region for the Spanish right in general and for Vox in particular.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4611578/0/ciudadanos-rompe-pp-murcia-presentara-mocion-censura-con-psoe-ayuntamiento-region/


In response to this, premier of Madrid Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP) has decided to dissolve the regional assembly and call for a snap election for an unnamed day in May; a suprising move imo as I don't think a no confidence vote in Madrid was likely but whatever.

Still Madrid's alleged new regional election will be a fun one to watch and one that is theoretically winnable by the left or by a weird PSOE-Cs-MM coalition.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4611986/0/comunidad-madrid-rueda-prensa-posterior-consejo-gobierno/

Vox has also expressed that they want snap elections in all PP controlled regions but I doubt any other regions go for it. Never let a crisis go to waste though

Either way my rating for the new Madrid election would be Likely PP. It is loseable for Ayuso, but she should be the favourite.

[Skye]

Nothing good can come out of this.

[Velasco]

PSOE and Más Madrid submit motions of no confidence,  in order to prevent that Ayuso calls a snap election. Both claim the decree for a snap election is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1369624347644674050?s=19

[Zinneke]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

[Velasco]

Public appearance of Ayuso, announcing her resignation and the snap elections. Apparently the regional Chief of Staff Miguel Ángel Rodríguez was faster than PSOE and MM. Ayuso will campaign on the "Madrid way of life". She will go in full populist mode, low taxes and cultural battles. The Cs regional leader and former deputy premier Ignacio Aguado is very angry.  Cs had no plans to ally with the PSOE in Madrid,  apparently. But Ayuso has found a pretext and her chance to throw her hat in the contest for the leadership of the Spanish Right. In case she succeeds, I assume it's going to be PP+Vox

Election date is still unknown

Cs leadership deems stable the coalitions with the PP in Andalusia and Castilla y León

The Mayor of Madrid says the coalition with Cs will continue. Unlike Ayuso  Almeida can't dissolve the City Council. The relationship between PP and Cs in the Madrid local government is much better than the relationship between the two parties in the regional government

[Velasco]

The Bureau* of the Madrid Regional Assembly, chaired by a Cs member, admits the no confidence motions submitted by PSOE and Más Madrid. On paper, according to PSOE sources, this move paralyzes the snap elections, in the assumption the decree to call elections is not in force until it's released tomorrow by the Official Gazette. Chaos

*PSOE, PP, Cs and Vox have presence in the Bureau. MM was deprived of tepresentation by a trick of the rightwing parties.  PSOE and Cs voted in favour of both motions; Vox voted against the PSOE motion and backed the admission of one submitted by MM

In case elections take place, the date would be Tuesday May 4, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

[Velasco]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

[Velasco]

The butterfly effect

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-03-10/madrid-region-faces-early-election-after-infighting-triggers-political-earthquake-in-spain.html

Spain’s butterfly effect began in the southeastern region of Murcia. The precarious balance between the country’s two main political blocs has been broken by what started out as a local move that quickly snowballed into an event with national repercussions.

In just a few hours on Wednesday, a no-confidence motion filed in Murcia against the conservative Popular Party (PP) by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the liberal Ciudadanos (Citizens) led to the fall of the regional government of Madrid, and threatened to destabilize other regions such as Andalusia and Castilla y León.

As a result of the initiative to push the PP out of power in Murcia, the Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, also of the PP, said she was dissolving her own legislature and calling an early election on May 4. Díaz Ayuso’s move, announced at midday on Wednesday, aimed to prevent a no-confidence vote against her own executive in Madrid (...)

Reacting to her announcement, the PSOE and the leftist Más Madrid registered two no-confidence motions against Díaz Ayuso in an effort to stop the snap election from taking place. At around 4.30pm, it emerged that the Madrid regional assembly’s governing board had accepted the motions. These were registered on the legal basis that the election announcement is not official until it is published in the regional gazette on Thursday. Once this happens, it cannot be reversed and any subsequent motions would fail to stop the vote.

If Madrileños do get called to a vote on May 4, the election is likely to change the political landscape, especially on the right end of the spectrum, where the far-right Vox has been making significant gains, most recently at the Catalan election in February. Ciudadanos, which stands to gain its first regional premiership in Spain if the Murcia motion prospers, now faces the unexpected prospect of losing its hold on the powerful Madrid region. 

[Zinneke]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.