Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

[Zinneke]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

[Zinneke]

Nothing good can come out of this.

Ayuso's downfall.

Eh, not really, she should be the favourite to win the election for all intents and purposes. I can think of scenarios where Ayuso loses but there aren't that mamy of them.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.

[Zinneke]

Maybe the problem is the existence of a legal vacuum concerning the autonomous communities ruled by the "general regime". Let's say there exist two kinds of autonomous communities, the "historical nationalities " (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) and those ruled by the "general regime" (rest of regions). In other words, those regions that back in the day followed the "fast track" to autonomy (article 151 of the constitution) and the ones following the "slow track" (article 143). Some of the latter have reformed their statutes of autonomy (case of Valencia, which called a snap election in April 2019 in coincidence with general elections), but it seems Madrid is lacking a clear procedure to call snap elections. In case Ayuso wins the legal dispute, Madrid will have to call elections again in 2023 alongside the other regions that haven't amended their statutes

7

 https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html  

"Jurists believe dissolution prevails over no confidence motion, as it has effects since the decree is issued"

 Just heard to other jurist with the same argument and it makes sense, since otherwise the regional premier couldn't call elections without the consent of the opposition. The problem is that the legislation says literally the decree comes into effect when it's released in the Official Bulletin. That's why the High Court or the Constitutional Court will rule in one way or another.  They could rule in favour of Ayuso (or not)

It isn't really a legal vacuum that concerns the "general regime" communities; but rather a legal vacuum concerning the exact specifics of how a snap election gets called.

Madrid's legislation (and I think that of all regions?) specifies that when a snap election gets called, parliament gets dissolved when the dissolution order is published (which takes roughly 24 hours in most cases). However, the legislation also establishes that no snap elections may occur while a no confidence vote is pending. Therefore, there is the legal vacuum of what happens if someone puts in place a no confidence vote during that brief 24 hour period in order to avoid the snap election.

To be honest on this particular debate I lean towards the arguments put in place by Ayuso and PP. I think that quickly tabling a no confidence vote goes against at least the spirit of the norm; and is certainly a dirty play by PSOE/MM. Madrid's premier wanted elections and so elections can and should happen. There is also your argument that if this was the case, theoretically snap elections would require the consent of the opposition.

I do agree that this will 100% end up in court which will have to decide what happens now.

Why should elections be based on the whim of one intellectually challenged, yet insane figure's desire to boost her majority on the back of having less tight restrictions and some rancid instrumentalisation of the pandemic for political gain?

It shouldn't be up to the premier to call early elections, it should be up to the legislative body to have the opportunity to form a new majority. Can you imagine if Sanchez had handled the pandemic well, seen a wave of popularity because of his Covid policy (whether strict or not) and then opportunistically called an early election? The right-wing press would of course slaughter him. And rightly so. But its only a putsch or a coup if the Left do it.

Once the Bureau of the Regional Assembly admitted the motions of no confidence, it's not clear the elections are going to take place. The left and Cs claim the decree is not in force until it's released by the Official Gazette, while the PP argues it's in force since Ayuso signed it this morning. Possibly the Supreme Court will have to rule on this dispute,

In case there is a snap election, Ayuso seems to be the favourite. In case there's a no confidence motion and some consensus between PSOE, Cs and MM, Ayuso will be ousted. In that case, she and her supporters will go in full Trumpist mode. The rightwing outlets are already claiming there's a coup attempt

The right-wing outlets actually deserve Chavismo.

Ironically there is a bit of a "Boy who cried wolf" effect in this case.

While calling it a coup is still a vast hyperbole, in this case there are genuine legal arguments that can be made that would unambiguously put the maneouver by PSOE and MM in Madrid as a dirty play that undermines democracy slightly and even as a mild regional coup.

However, when Sanchez first came into power, the opposition also spared no time calling the no confidence vote against Rajoy a coup as well, when in that case the accusation was 100% nonsense

(there is also the whole debate about whether Catalonia 2017 qualifies as a coup or not which I won't get into; but there Spanish right certainly also spares no time calling the Catalan secessionists putschists)

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Again, I actually blame Rivera for starting this, for turning an entire spectrum into a competition as to who can come out with the most hardline extreme stances to steal headlines, initially about Catalonia, then about the illegitimacy of the Sanchez government (voted in by majority). But there's no "both sides" about this : the people playing with fire with the democratic institutions and importing the worst aspects of Latin American democracy are the Spanish Right.

[Zinneke]

But that's the point : the spanish press are turning Spain into a latin american democracy. They are constantly baying for blood and whipping up tensions, by saying that the Transition is at risk, that Bolshevism is back in Spain (that intellectually sub-par book by Frederico Jimenez Losantos is a best seller), that they're gonna run out of toilet paper and then of course playing to the diasporas of latin americans too by equating Podemos with Chavismo. But the only actors acting like Latin American populists are PP and Vox figures, sky high in the polls.

Eh, Podemos is solely to blame for their comparisons to Chavismo.

As a Venezuelan, it irks me that they are in power, of course.

There's absolutely no comparison. Nor is there between Vox and the Latin American far right, even though, clearly, Vox is far more inspired by their model than Iglesias is by Chavez's.

Iglesias's cosying up to such regimes comes from profound anti-NATO, anti-Western hegemony views, belief in the revision of a world order, and that in order to revise such a world order, your enemy's enemy is your friend. He's not fundamentally comparable to Chavez as a political phenomenon in that Chavez was the head of the armed forces who used that institutional power to set up a rentier state, whereas Iglesias is, what, a university professor who engages in testimonial politics and whose height of power will be as a minor coalition partner to PSOE.  The entire political dynamics between Podemos and the Venezuelan coup are just incomparable, yet you genuinely meet a whole bunch of right-wing Spanish people who think Podemos could actually take over with an absolute majority and turn Spain into a rentier state.

[Zinneke]

But like you said, Iglesias "cozying up to such regimes" is precisely what drivers the comparisons, and at least among us Venezuelans, is why we don't look at Podemos with good eyes.

No, Podemos could denounce Chavismo all day and it wouldn't matter for the Spanish Press, and it also wouldn't matter for a lot of Venezuelans. Anything left wing will be automatically chavismo and "Así empezó Venezuela", that's how it works at both sides of the ocean.

ding ding ding
and you can replace Venezuelans with a lot of the South American diaspora in Spain, that is increasingly right-wing

meanwhile PP and Vox are actually engaging in behaviour much more similar to Chavismo, unironically.

But go look at the comments of FT articles with Spanish subscribers to the FT commetning, literally calling Sanchez are Latin American socialist and a golpista. This is the level of discourse that traverses large swathes of the Spanish Right, so called "educated" elite. That worships start up culture over the Atlantic but doesn't read a book that may broaden their horizons outside of Frederico's teachings.

[Zinneke]

Madrid Ens Roba redux

[Zinneke]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

You are surprised the same party that ordered the financing of GAL has right-wing figures embedded in it after it was the main opposition underground institution during the dictatorship and set up to be the party of government? I mean, I have no doubt of most PSOE high ranking figures social democratic credentials but let's not flatter some of the heavyweights that joined out of opportunism/entryism either.

(yes, yes you can point out the tinfoil hat)

[Zinneke]

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.

[Zinneke]

The PSOE is going to fall to third place anytime now. Más Madrid is less than 3000 votes away, and most of the vote that remains comes from the city of Madrid, MM’s stronghold. Truly disastrous results for the socialists.

But more importantly, great results for Mas Madrid, a mature sensible party that isn't a criminal protection site or full of unhinged people.

But still...VENEZUELA!

[Zinneke]

Any reason why that precinct in Aluche went for the PCOE-PCPE?

[Zinneke]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

[Zinneke]

Ángel Gabilondo, PSOE candidate, was rushed to Hospital this afternoon because of a heart problem. He got a Covid shot earlier today.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1390342661652066308

He has also resigned from his seat in the Madrid Assembly.

That's a shame, in the debates he was both charming and lacked the sensationalist posturing that even his own party members sometimes adopt.

Also, tack50, are we really comparing C's to the LibDems after everything that happened? I actually think C's in retrospect should be seen as the pet project of one man, Albert Rivera, and his intellectual and PR entourage, to try and make a right-wing "brand" more fresh, out of fear of the PP getting absolutely annihilated due to corruption scandals and outdated views on things like gay marriage. It was political entrepreuneurs trying to find any market available (including describing themselves as social democrats when it suited them), with the only value of conserving the worst aspects of Spanish institutions. They are not liberals in any measure, European or Anglo-Saxon. They were just a very modern phenomenon. There were always rumours that Rivera was a PP asset too, given he hid his activity in the party.

[Zinneke]

I guess I do agree with your statements, but I do think that Cs was at least in part a liberal party in the European sense of the word.

For me continental liberal parties have as their origin a general pillar of bourgeois (can be petit or haute bourgeoisie) interests. C's was much more heterogenous in that sense. It had a bunch on intellectual "liberals" (a lot of whom were ex-PP) sure but it never claimed to be an open representative of bourgeois and independent interests. Rivera was running ads of him in tavernas calling out the political class, as a man of the little people. Rutte, FDP, Clegg all never did that.

Is Rivera's turn to the right any more sharp than say, Macron's?

Yes, absolutely. But that isn't the crucial difference. The difference is that Macron went right out of opportunism, whereas Rivera swung rightwards (although I always maintain that he has always been a right-winger) because he launched an insane bidding war with the two other parties to his right, to the extent that he was literally capable of saying anything to justify some pretty extreme behavior on the Catalan issue and pretty much abandoned his whole social democrat schtick in favour of naked populism.

Rutte actually has values. They are sh**tty ones imo, but he conforms to a more broader set of interests and values of his political family. Put it this way : Rutte is still predictable. Rivera was just waiting to see where the wind blew on a bunch of issue, while pressing hard on the line that Catalanists were "golpistas" (of course because Venezuela is the Godwin's Law of Spanish politics too) because he knew that was the issue that propelled him to center stage in the first place.

Being "tough on Catalonia" isn't really a social issue in that same way)

But wanting to punish Catalonia and have their dissidents jailed through political means if they were found innocent isn't very liberal either. Rivera was questioning the independence of the judiciary. That isn't very liberal.

[Zinneke]

those well known Chavistas at the OCDE are now calling out Ayuso's Reaganite pipe dream as a tax haven :

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/macroeconomia/2021/05/11/609a9f86fc6c83f75f8b45a3.html


Spain is going turn itself into a city state where the capital acts as a vortex to the rest of its communities, while it preaches a hard stance towards Catalonia and Euzkadi.

The political implications of this aren't as good for the PP as they think.

[Zinneke]

Nothing like weaponizing your own people to show what a caring ruler you are.

A lot of the border crossers are not Morroccan.

[Zinneke]

Today Spain's supreme court announced their non-binding decision on whether the Catalan prisoners should be pardoned or not (which is a requirement to issue a pardon under Spain's rules). The answer, as we all expected was a very easy no because they have not expressed an ounce of regret and in fact they pledge they would do it again if they had the chance, so juridically it is a very easy case.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4708958/0/el-tribunal-supremo-se-opone-a-la-concesion-del-indulto-a-los-12-condenados-causa-proces/?autoref=true

However it is still a possibility that Sánchez will issue a pardon regardless, possibly as some sort of deal with Catalan secessionists.

Today a new poll dropped about pardons. They have 63% support in Catalonia, but only 22% nationwide.



Personally I think a pardon would be a bad idea because of the reason the courts said (they haven't expressed any regret whatsoever). However it is not an issue that ranks all that high in my list of priorities even when it certainly does for other people.

(sidenote: I want to know who the hell are the 10% of Vox supporters in favour of a pardon lmao)

Libertarians who think government shouldn't be locking up people for organising the sliding of paper ballots into boxes?

[Zinneke]

The Spanish Right know full well internments without fair trials and excessive punishments only make the crisis worse. That is what they want though. They want people to believe Spain is on the brink of dissolution and communist revolution because its a much simpler message than reconciliation, and it wins them votes.

[Zinneke]

The Spanish Right know full well internments without fair trials and excessive punishments only make the crisis worse. That is what they want though. They want people to believe Spain is on the brink of dissolution and communist revolution because its a much simpler message than reconciliation, and it wins them votes.

Why is pure nihilistic cynicism maybe *the* defining characteristic of so much of the right these days?

From my conversations with them : because you feel like society works against you, so why should you feel any kind of optimism or empathy? Oh, and because you at least like to feel you have the power to live seperately from society, and that society depends on you rather than the other way round, even though its not the case.

Of course, much of it is exaggerated, but the anecdote from a right-winger here on the self-employed in Spain having to go through mountains of tax code when the regular employee has it done for them, that's actually a very good way to alienate people that otherwise wouldn't mind paying their fair share for quality public services.

[Zinneke]

Shows you a deeper discrimination against Eastern Europe in the EU. Spain has amassed enough diplomatic capital to be able to get away with a politicised justice system, but when Poland and Hungary attempt similar, its... ThE eNd Of Da rUlE oF LaW

[Zinneke]

https://www.twitter.com/MarianaSeMendes/status/1447860843606122501

[Zinneke]

What's this new Centrem party in Catalunya

[Zinneke]

Casado has gone up in my estimation after this episode. He seemed like a perennial loser and a cuck waiting to be displaced but he took initiative in urquhartian fashion and has desecrated Saint Ayuso's polished cranky far right libertarian image. I would like to see what our resident cani thinks of this but he might be on the front line in Ukraine somewhere, testing the landmines.

[Zinneke]

There are too many people who stand to lose from a PP dissolution for it to happen. Deep state is a strong term but there are enough people who will crack some skulls together to make the PP continue.

[Zinneke]

It's amazing how nepotism is basically an open part of the PP ideology now.