Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

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The butterfly effect

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-03-10/madrid-region-faces-early-election-after-infighting-triggers-political-earthquake-in-spain.html

Spain’s butterfly effect began in the southeastern region of Murcia. The precarious balance between the country’s two main political blocs has been broken by what started out as a local move that quickly snowballed into an event with national repercussions.

In just a few hours on Wednesday, a no-confidence motion filed in Murcia against the conservative Popular Party (PP) by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the liberal Ciudadanos (Citizens) led to the fall of the regional government of Madrid, and threatened to destabilize other regions such as Andalusia and Castilla y León.

As a result of the initiative to push the PP out of power in Murcia, the Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, also of the PP, said she was dissolving her own legislature and calling an early election on May 4. Díaz Ayuso’s move, announced at midday on Wednesday, aimed to prevent a no-confidence vote against her own executive in Madrid (...)

Reacting to her announcement, the PSOE and the leftist Más Madrid registered two no-confidence motions against Díaz Ayuso in an effort to stop the snap election from taking place. At around 4.30pm, it emerged that the Madrid regional assembly’s governing board had accepted the motions. These were registered on the legal basis that the election announcement is not official until it is published in the regional gazette on Thursday. Once this happens, it cannot be reversed and any subsequent motions would fail to stop the vote.

If Madrileños do get called to a vote on May 4, the election is likely to change the political landscape, especially on the right end of the spectrum, where the far-right Vox has been making significant gains, most recently at the Catalan election in February. Ciudadanos, which stands to gain its first regional premiership in Spain if the Murcia motion prospers, now faces the unexpected prospect of losing its hold on the powerful Madrid region. 

https://www.europapress.es/madrid/noticia-juristas-creen-prima-voluntad-disolucion-mociones-tener-efectos-dicta-decreto-20210310161030.html

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Habemus Elections!!!!!!
https://issuu.com/prisarevistas/docs/05900

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Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

Murcia, 2019 general election
PP+Vox = 55%
Psoe + Up = 35%
Cs = 7,5 %




https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/15/

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https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1371565169692794880?s=20

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e.e
https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1371890020085293062?s=20

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"We're worried.
In the Madrid elections, home to most Jews in Spain, anti-Semitic parties aspire to form government.
His success would jeopardize the normality of Jewish life"
https://twitter.com/ACOM_es/status/1380432789020016640?s=20

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Chaos in the debate held this morning, triggered by the provications of the far-right candidate Rocío Monasterio.

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-04-23/chaos-reigns-at-madrid-electoral-debate-as-pablo-iglesias-walks-out-and-program-cut-short-after-clashes-with-far-right-vox-candidate.html

A pre-election debate held at the Cadena SER radio network descended into chaos on Friday morning, with the Unidas Podemos candidate for the upcoming Madrid regional polls, Pablo Iglesias, walking out of the studio almost as soon as the program had begun. The left-wing politician, who recently left his role as deputy prime minister in the national government to contest the May 4 elections, opted to leave given the refusal of far-right Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio to retract doubts she had expressed over whether death threats he had received were genuine.

“I condemn all kinds of violence, but I would have liked for them to have condemned what we suffered in Vallecas,” Monasterio had stated earlier on Friday during an interview with state radio broadcaster RNE, in reference to clashes between Vox supporters, police and protestors at a recent rally held by the far-right group in that Madrid neighborhood. “And well, I believe little of what Pablo Iglesias says, and I think that all Spaniards, every time that we hear Pablo Iglesias say something, we call it into question because he has deceived us vilely over this last year.”

When it came his turn to speak at the Cadena SER debate, Iglesias called on Monasterio to rectify her words about an incident that has just came to light, whereby Iglesias, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska and the head of the Civil Guard were sent threatening letters accompanied by bullets. Monasterio refused to back down, but she did repeat her condemnation of all violence, saying to Iglesias: “If you are so brave, get up and leave.” As the presenter and mediator of the debate, Àngels Barceló, and the other politicians present protested and argued, Iglesias did just that and headed for the exit.

Rocio Monasterio tweeted later that she fulfulled her electoral promise to kick out Iglesias, in the bullying and boastful style of a true fascist.

At least the PP condemned the death threats, although the Madrid's PP posted a tweet mocking Iglesias after the incidents this morning. Later the tweet was deleted.  Ayuso was not oresent at the debate, for she decided it was not in her onterest to participate. The regional president tweted a short message saying she condemns "any violence", without mentioning Iglesias, Montero, Grande-Marlaska or Gámez.

TV network La Sexta cancelled its debate due to the refusal of UP and MM to participate with Monasterio present.

https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1385602709689143296?s=20

"The Automated Postal Processing Centers scan all packages and letters that are sent in Spain to detect, among other things, possible explosive loads inside"

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/2583193/11/10/Correos-escanea-todas-las-cartas-y-paquetes-enviados-en-espana.html

"Post officials assure us that it has also not been received by the Ministry of the Interior, since it has no entry stamp. Interior has refused to provide images of the other letters to journalists".

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I am extremely disappointed at Vox for finally going full fascist and not even bother to hide it. Like the meme says "Our expectations were low, but holy F***". Extremely disappointed at PP for not being more forceful against it though they corrected quickly at least.

I don't even know what to say. This has to be the most disappointed I've been at Spanish politics that I can think of. Somehow this regional Madrid election has been extremely polarizing, even more so than infamously polarizing campaigns like the 2008 General Election or even the 2017 Catalan election, right after article 155!

Section 151 needs to be triggered against any community that has Vox in a coalition.

I think you mean Section 155 (the one that allows the central government to temporarily take over). Section 151 is a relatively boring and almost irrelevant nowadays section about how the "historical" autonomous communities can be created.

I will also note section 155 is a "last resort" option against a region that is openly rebelling against an important bill passed by the central government and it has only been discussed twice and fully applied just once.

It is definitely not an appropiate tool for this.

Show me the evidence. You and Velasco are spreading lies

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The second state of alarm is unconstitutional
https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-segundo-estado-alarma-tambien-inconstitucional-202109082329_noticia.html#vca=rrss&vmc=abc-es&vso=tw&vli=cm-general&_tcode=a2hpYzkx

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Former PM Zapatero (PSOE) allegedly obtained an illegal gold mine in Venezuela. This should be of concern to the left since it is not an unfounded accusation by Vox like the allegations that have been made (and dismissed), but comes from a former high-ranking Venezuelan government official.
 
https://twitter.com/elconfidencial/status/1449226227055693831?s=20

"In 2020 Colombian Congresswoman Piedad Cordoba informed in an interview that former PM of Spain Rodriguez Zapatero had a gold mine in Venezuela"

https://twitter.com/venezolanoenpie/status/1449356470957576193?s=20

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Vox and Chega have a good relationship, except in the occassions Vox is tweeting maps pf the Spanish Empire including Portugal  and its former colonies

https://twitter.com/ivanedlm/status/1447839605974306816?t=ATHrAaR5BM8awfh2tzxupg...

CHEGA and Vox becoming closer now is mystery, to be honest. They had a very estranged relationship, almost ignoring each other, but recently they become closer. I suspect that Ventura may be, like I wrote in the Portuguese thread, seeing the colapse of Le Pen and Salvini and wants new "friendships" to remain relevant in the European far-right movement. That's my hunch. Also, the map is just ridiculous and Ventura's hails to Spain in that rally were also mocked, but it's not getting a lot of coverage because of the current "political tension/crisis" in the country.

Actually I think Vox has plans to create its own group in the European parliament some kind of "Mediterranean alliance".

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The polls continue to be disastrous for the left, this one in particular is horrible. Andalusia has practically become Madrid.2

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1450041903001571328?s=20

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1449104174805884938?s=20

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The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

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The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

While PNV is slightly unhappy with the budget and the electricity prices decree, there is no way they vote down the budget. If the budget gets voted down, ERC will be the most likely party to do so; but I think Sanchez will manage to pass the budget

I think Otegi's move has scared them a lot. It is a real possibility that they will lose the government of Euskadi. The rhetoric against Bildu is very harsh and shows that they are worried about a left tripartite.

[BigSerg]

The PNV is clearly worried about the normalization of Bildu. They see it as a threat to their control of the Basque government.  


https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/pais-vasco/2021-10-20/el-pnv-pone-en-duda-el-discurso-de-otegi-es-un-instrumento-para-conseguir-sus-fines_3309621/

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-sobre-palabras-otegi-cara-declaracion-sobre-victimas-202110201211_noticia.html

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RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Despite the media circus, the reality is that Diaz has not improved her party's electoral expectations.
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1461815568206639111?s=20

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RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

Can you show us these polls?

[BigSerg]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

Can you show us these polls?

This is the big poll that the media was talking about all last week in the various discussion shows.

Specifically this question:


Source: http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3340marMT_A.pdf

However when it comes to a head-to-head-to-head-to-etc she comes in 3rd behind Pedro Sanchez & NOTA.

CIS... Everything the CIS says is bullsh**t, it is easily the worst pollster in Spain.

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https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1462709703159472131?s=20

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Vox votes no to the Andalusian budget. There will probably be elections in spring.
https://twitter.com/EFEnoticias/status/1463627632977793025?s=20

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Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

Andalusia and Castilla y León are safe (all polls say so). Talking about "treason" is good to make Ciudadanos disappear.

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https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1472886932384346118?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1473945995759206408?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1474863978019008513?s=20