Canada Federal Representation 2024

[toaster]

When I use Regular Population, I'm referring to population sizes that don't have to go beyond the 25% deviation below quota. This is not a lie, perhaps you misunderstood what I was saying.  Who is to say that Labrador is more important of a community that must stay together than, say, the Francophones along Highway 11 in Northern Ontario, or the James Bay coast Indigenous community?  Making a value judgement on choosing one community to be more deserving of receiving special treatment than others is the main concern for me.  We should want to be consistent. And if we grant any community of interest to be their own riding, we get to a place where we would have thousands of MPs and districts - but perhaps that's something to be considered if we want to continue to ensure a fair system.

As for gerrymandering, I do think it plays a part.  There is a reason the NDP (the party I usually support as a Northern Ontario labour guy) tries so hard to keep Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing in tact, but isn't interested in fighting as hard for the changes happening in York Region and Simcoe in Ontario.

[JohnAMacdonald]

When I use Regular Population, I'm referring to population sizes that don't have to go beyond the 25% deviation below quota. This is not a lie, perhaps you misunderstood what I was saying.  Who is to say that Labrador is more important of a community that must stay together than, say, the Francophones along Highway 11 in Northern Ontario, or the James Bay coast Indigenous community?  Making a value judgement on choosing one community to be more deserving of receiving special treatment than others is the main concern for me.  We should want to be consistent. And if we grant any community of interest to be their own riding, we get to a place where we would have thousands of MPs and districts - but perhaps that's something to be considered if we want to continue to ensure a fair system.

As for gerrymandering, I do think it plays a part.  There is a reason the NDP (the party I usually support as a Northern Ontario labour guy) tries so hard to keep Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing in tact, but isn't interested in fighting as hard for the changes happening in York Region and Simcoe in Ontario.

The average population in Ontario's 121 ridings is 117,553*, Timmins—James Bay has a population of 80,785*, that's ((117,553-80,785)/117,553) 31% deviation below quota, if what you said isn't a lie, then 31% is smaller than 25%, in other words, 2+2=5.
*as of 2021, it was similar in 2011 from what I could find...

You are attacking a weaker version of my argument, indeed you are claiming that if we follow Labrador's logic (a historically politically separate entity from the rest of NL), then we should grant the same request for any and all community of similar size. Who is to say that Labrador is more important of a community that must stay together than, say, the Francophones along Highway 11 in Northern Ontario, or the James Bay coast Indigenous community? Well, history and geography do. In both cases, these groups are either spread out in such a way as to create a really weird riding or already grouped together in a number of quite logical ridings where they have a major say on the winner. So your whole argument is a little silly...

There is indeed a reason the NDP focuses more on the ridings they represent: because that's where they get requests to MP's offices from citizens asking them to preserve the riding, or are you saying that the NDP in a suburban Toronto seat where they got 5% of the vote will receive as many requests to their local office for preserving that seat as the NDP in a northern seat where the (NDP) MP's office receives a bunch of messages from concerned residents and groups about the riding's future? Because if you truly believe that, and on top of that believe that 31% is smaller than 25%, well then we have a problem...

[toaster]

Again, you are incorrect.  At the last redistribution, Timmins James bay was only 21.87% below the average, so within the 25% threshold, see below from the 2011 Redistribution report. You seem to be sharing fake information. Now, at redistribution time, Northern Ontario hasn't grown like the rest of Ontario, which is why Kapuskasing, Hearst, and other areas are being added to the former Timmins-James Bay to keep it within the 25% deviation allowed - which is the way it should be, you change depending on changes in the province, you shouldn't just get to stay at 25k forever.  Anyway, I'm going to stop arguing with you because you seem to be making up numbers and are a new member without any posts, but I encourage you do to som research on the redistribution process.

[JohnAMacdonald]

Again, you are incorrect.  At the last redistribution, Timmins James bay was only 21.87% below the average, so within the 25% threshold, see below from the 2011 Redistribution report. You seem to be sharing fake information. Now, at redistribution time, Northern Ontario hasn't grown like the rest of Ontario, which is why Kapuskasing, Hearst, and other areas are being added to the former Timmins-James Bay to keep it within the 25% deviation allowed - which is the way it should be, you change depending on changes in the province, you shouldn't just get to stay at 25k forever.  Anyway, I'm going to stop arguing with you because you seem to be making up numbers and are a new member without any posts, but I encourage you do to som research on the redistribution process.

*some research.

I looked up the 2011 numbers (83 104 and 106 213), but the 2021 numbers I gave you were accurate, so I demand you apologise for claiming I made things up, because I clearly said those were the 2021 numbers (or did you not read my reply?)

Anyway, I'm going to stop arguing with you because you seem to be claiming I lie even though I clearly made it clear where I got my numbers from...
Also, new member or not, I can't see the report you claim to have added below your post, care to point out where you put it?

[trebor204]

Do we know when we'll be getting the census profiles for the new redistributed ridings?

From the Stats Canada website, they will be available on (Wednesday) November 15th

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/ref/upcomingreleases-diffusionsavenir-eng.cfm

[trebor204]

Link for the Profiles for the 2023 Representation Order

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/download-telecharger.cfm?Lang=E