Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

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Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.

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Ayuso is an very lucky politician, isn't she? First it was Cifuentes' plagiarism and shoplifting scandal which opened the path to her presidency. Then a botched deal in Murcia gave her an excuse to ditch Cs and send them to near extinction. Now a misstep by Casado and her intra party opponents could finally hand her the leadership of PP.

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Most interesting thing to watch for today is whether PSOE will not finish first in the province of Seville for the first time ever.

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Behold, Cs new logo. Political party or software developer?

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Podemos will cry, scream and drag their feet until the end but the reality of the electoral system and pressure from PSOE and leftist organisations will eventually force them to run together.

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So far PSOE is stable or slightly down compared to 2019, which was a good year for them. Maybe handsome Pedro isn't as DOA as I believe.

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PSOE falls below majority in C-LM

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How does the PSOE mayor of Vigo keep winning by these Assad margins?

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I have to imagine disunity and lack of a clear leader has been fatal for forces left of PSOE? Changing names every election can't have been helpful either. Perhaps they will learn their lesson before December but then again it is the Spanish left.

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Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

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I think this is basically an ultimatum to the left. Unite or we will eat you alive.

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Podemos seems to have a death wish is threatening to walk away from negotiations. They even registered a shell party "in error".

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Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

The Spanish left agrees on 99% of things but the 1% they disagree on happen to be each other. It's a cesspit of inflated egos and horrible personalities.

[Logical]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

[Logical]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

Possible, as regional parties do worse in a general election. But with the right wing vote divided it's still a likely gain for PSOE.

[Logical]

While most likely outcome is PP + Vox get majority, what happens if they fall short?  Since PSOE + Sumar probably more likely to get regional support save perhaps a few, what is minimum PP + Vox need in seats to form government realistically.  If relying on regional ones, does it mean new elections or will enough swing behind one group to ensure a government forms?

It's a good question. The only regional parties who could plausibly win seats and support a PP-Vox government are UPN and CC. Since UPN and CC will win 2-3 seats, PP and Vox needs to obtain at least 174 seats to be assured of government (in the worst case scenario where UPN + CC wins just 1 seat they need 175). Below that threshold and it starts getting complicated. The Catalan nationalists and left wing regionalists will never support a government with Vox, a far cry from the days when the Convergencia would happily lend their support to Aznar's PP. This leaves us with PNV, who are under great electoral pressure from Bildu. It's very difficult to see them voting for a PP-Vox government but they may be persuaded to abstain with large bribes and assurances that Basque autonomy will not be touched, nonetheless this is still a very tough ask from PNV. If they somehow manage to convince PNV to abstain the threshold is lowered to 171 seats as PNV will win 5-6 seats. If they fall short of that threshold then a repeat election is almost certain.

There is another way however. PSOE could abstain from the investiture vote if PP promises to keeps Vox out of government. But I do not see this happening under Sanchez.

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There appears to be some mishap with the Vox party list in Santa Cruz de Tenerife province.

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Something extremely cursed to begin your day with.

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Predictions time

PP              133 - 33%
PSOE         110 - 29%
SUMAR        37 - 14%
VOX              36 - 13%
ERC                 8
JUNTS            8
EH                   6
PNV                5
BNG                2
CC                   2
CUP                 1
EV                    1
UPN                 1

[Logical]

What is EV, pls?

Empty Spain. Rural protest movement that grew out from Teruel Existe's success in the November 2019 election. They are running in several small provinces but it looks like will only win a seat in Teruel, although there is an outside chance they could snatch a seat in Soria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty_Spain

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PP cannibalized the hell out of Vox, but it may not be enough.

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Sociometrica final poll

PP  134-40
PSOE 109-115
VOX 35-39
SMR 32-35

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Important to remember that these polls aren't exit polls. They are polls taken the day before with all the biases and leans of each polling company.

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Someone asked if there is a counting bias in Spain and the answer is yes. The right bloc usually gains about 10 seats in the final results compared to the first results.


http://www.malaprensa.com/2023/07/pistas-para-entender-los-resultados.html?m=1

[Logical]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.