Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[jaichind]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

[LAB-LIB]

I mean if there is a new election, there would probably be more infighting in the PP than before right? So it could benefit the PSOE?

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

A universe where since Corona the issue of independence has been put in a freezer in terms of salience and these parties know that making it an issue again by demanding a vote on sovereignty would increase its salience., even if it means sabotaging Sanchez.

[Zinneke]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Reckon PP and Vox could just about make it with Communidad de Madrid

[BigSerg]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

[kaoras]

The right got the low end of the polls in term of seat, is not really that bad. What is really criminal is the polling in Navarre.

[Epaminondas]

Hopefully this means the right isn’t able to do anything, while Vox in power contaminates their popularity soooo much that the left wins BIG in the next elections.

Weird. How does it work to be left-wing but pro-Putin? Doesn't compute.

[Red Velvet]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Great. I don’t want PSOE to “win” and have to form a government if it it’s dead from the start. Let the right self-destroy by having Vox in government but also needing Independist parties from the Basque Country + One Liberal from Canary Islands lmao

[BigSerg]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

In fact, it is possible, although highly unlikely, that they could still reach 176

[kaoras]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Reckon PP and Vox could just about make it with Communidad de Madrid

Make what? Madrid is at 63% Proportional seat allocation is not going to vary that much in such a big district.

[Logical]

Unless Sanchez can get Junts to bend the knee it's new elections in December or early next year.

[kaoras]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

In fact, it is possible, although highly unlikely, that they could still reach 176

Lmao, keep coping

[BigSerg]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

In fact, it is possible, although highly unlikely, that they could still reach 176

Lmao, keep coping

I mean, they're currently at 171, only five seats to go, it's likely that with only four they can form a government and there's still the vote of some cities left. If you think that's coping, that's fine.

[PSOL]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Great. I don’t want PSOE to “win” and have to form a government if it it’s dead from the start. Let the right self-destroy by having Vox in government but also needing Independist parties from the Basque Country + One Liberal from Canary Islands lmao

Velvet Derangement Syndrome is very caustic

Perhaps the best result is inevitable, new elections delaying the right from power and forcing the non-PSOE left to get its act together.

[jaichind]

I do not see why anyone would want to be PM under these circumstances. 

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

176 seems marginally impossible but very unlikely at this point.
We shall see soon enough of course.

[jeron]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

In fact, it is possible, although highly unlikely, that they could still reach 176

Lmao, keep coping

Yes and cc already said they won't support a government that includes vox. So, no

[Logical]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

[BigSerg]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

That is false and delirious. The only reason why the Psoe won in Catalonia is precisely because there was a huge abstention of more than ten points, that abstention did a lot of damage to the separatists.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Looks like Teruel no Existe 😔

and this result is a win for nobody. The only way the separatists would go with Sanchez is if he gave them an inconceivably good deal and guaranteed his future defeat whenever some essential microparty decides to pull support. He'd be better off if the right won by one seat. As it stands another election seems imminent.

[BigSerg]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I think you mistakenly believe that separatist voters voted en masse for Psoe, they did not, they just abstained.

[Red Velvet]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

[Vosem]

Junts' ancestor parties have backed the left before (explicitly voting for Rodriguez in 1993, and tacitly abstaining for Zapatero in 2008), but have more commonly backed the right (including an explicit vote for Aznar in 1996). Their leader, Puigdemont, was arrested by Pedro Sanchez for essentially political reasons, and I think it's really difficult to imagine them voting for Sanchez, but at the same time they would never join Vox.

If they decide to vote against any kind of government, then I think new elections are totally inevitable. If one side or the other can get them to strategically abstain...then it still seems quite unclear which side would even be 'larger'; this would only be an option for one side or the other.

EDIT: PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG are at 172; PP/Vox/CCA/UPN at 171. (CCA could join either side, for the record.) Right now Junts abstaining would reelect Sanchez. I don't think ERC would truly force new elections at which PP might well win if they can take a course of action which would restore Sanchez -- although I might be wrong, and there probably exist currents within the party which would want this. But such an action wouldn't even be particularly strange from Junts, although it's tough to say that it's guaranteed.