2023 Malagasy presidential "election"

[Electric Circus]

Rough going so far. A couple of articles from today:

https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/09/madagascar-at-least-16-injured-in-opposition-protests-as-tensions-rise-ahead-presidential/ [Warning: This article borders on gibberish.]

Last month the Constitutional Court dismissed appeals to have President Andry Rajoelina's candidacy declared void over his dual French nationality, sparking opposition anger. [...] The 11 opposition candidates have since led almost daily, unauthorized marches in the capital, which have been met with a heavy police presence and tear gas.

https://www.barrons.com/news/madagascar-s-parliamentary-chief-calls-for-suspension-of-presidential-election-19450b13

The head of Madagascar's lower house of parliament [...] said conditions to hold a "transparent" and "inclusive" vote on November 16 were not right and the "electoral process must be suspended".

This article from earlier this week has more detail:

The Collectif des Candidats started mass street protests on 2 October. They’ve generally been peaceful, but the authorities have used all means, including violence, to suppress them. The coalition aims to continue these protests until its demands are met. But it doesn’t look like they will be.

For one, forcing Rajoelina to participate in a negotiation that would result in his own disqualification as a candidate is not likely to happen.

Secondly, it’s unlikely that the current government, electoral commission and constitutional court will enter into negotiations regarding their reshuffle or dissolution.

[Electric Circus]

AP: 10 out of 12 challengers boycott election:

A collective of 10 candidates on Monday said they would not take part, claiming the electoral process is full of flaws. They encouraged people to stay away from polling booths.

They argue that Rajoelina's French citizenship, obtained in 2014, disqualifies him from seeking re-election. Madagascar's High Constitutional Court decided last month that Rajoelina's dual citizenship does not disqualify him, a ruling that provoked enough of a response that the election was delayed by a week from its original date of November 9.

Rajoelina first assumed office after a 2009 coup. He did not run for re-election in 2013, but returned in 2018, defeating Marc Ravalomanana in the second round. Ravalomanana had been running again, but is now among the candidates boycotting this year's election.

Two challengers remain in the presidential race: (1) Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, mayor of Tuléar, (a city of ~170k in Madagascar's far south), a dissenting member of Rajoelina's own party, president of the African Judo Union, and vice-president of the International Judo Federation (an organization that claimed Vladimir Putin as honorary president until suspending him in 2022); and (2) Sendrison Daniela Raderanirina, a poorly funded "outsider" who works in IT in France.

As of today, Antananarivo is under a 9:00 curfew. Polls for the first round of voting will be open from 6:00 am to 5:00 pm on Thursday.

Other recent articles:

Al Jazeera: Madagascar's polls open on Thursday following weeks of protests over alleged electoral irregularities.
France 24: Madagascar faces deadlock after presidential candidates call boycott
Brookings: Madagascar's polarizing presidential elections

[Electric Circus]

Polls have closed. No major incidents have been reported since the curfew was imposed.

Early reports claim extremely low turnout, barely reaching 30% of registered voters even in Rajoelina's strongest precincts. (The official figure in the first round in 2018 was 54%.)

[icc]

6% of polling stations counted and the official turnout is hovering just under 40%.

Rajoelina is going to be re-elected (currently on 73%). Randrianasoloniaiko is just over 10%, with Ravalomanana just under. The polling stations counted are currently hugely skewed towards the central Merina provinces at the moment though, so Ravalomanana will likely fall and the other two rise.


I'm not sure what the endgame of the 'collective of 10' is, but it's hard to imagine that protests won't continue for a while.

[icc]

With 85% Rajoelina has (against my expectations) trended downward, and we’re at:
Rajoelina - 60%
Ravalomananana - 13%
Randrianasoloniakio - 13%
Rajaonarimampianina - 5%

We don’t have properly local results yet, but what we do have indicates that the calls to boycott only had an impact in the capital and surrounding areas (i.e. Ravalomananana voting Merino areas). In the old Antananarivo region turnout has nearly halved, and Rajoelina has surged (i.e. has retained his vote whilst others stay at home) whilst elsewhere turnout has basically stayed the same.

This makes sense given the call to boycott was fairly late, and Madagascar has terrible connectivity. If not for the boycott, Rajoelina would almost certainly be facing a second round, but would be a heavy favourite for victory.

As for the integrity of the vote: it doesn’t look as though there was any ballot stuffing or doctoring of the results, but there are widespread and credible reports of bribery from the Rajoelina campaign.

[PSOL]

There’s currently a nasty drought going on in the country leading (led?) to famine.