Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[jaichind]

I don't think we'll have polls from Andorra (GESOP was spotted on in the last Catalan elections, ftr), but El Periódico has its own panel of experts predicting the result for us

Today's prediction

PP 59 (40.5%)
PSOE 32 (22%)
MM 22 (15.7%)
UP 13 (9.4%)
VOX 10 (7.4%)
CS 0 (3.4%)

Not very different from other polls or 'panels' , aside that Vox and UP exchange places with regards polling average. The result predicted for the left is 2% above polling average,  similar to the 2019 result

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20210428/quien-ganara-elecciones-comunidad-madrid-2021-predicciones-11638576

If these are the results for UP is this not a complete failure for Pablo Iglesias given the fact he gave up his DPM role to lead UP in this election.

[jaichind]

Results and turnout page: https://elecciones2022ccyl.es/avances/0/castilla-y-leon

I wonder what will happen in the PP leadership if the party fails to poll first, if Casado will be in danger of being removed from office. But, we should take polls with a grain of salt.

I assume PP not finishing first would be because of a VOX surge?

[jaichind]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Any link to results?

[jaichind]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

[jaichind]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

Only TVE is saying this, but these poll are not real "exit polls" but rather tracking polls in the last few days, I believe. We'll have to wait for the results.

Nonetheless, a massive win for PP.

Yeah, looking at exit polls I see how.  Significant underperformance of VOX which I mentally ruled out.

[jaichind]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/21/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-pedro-sanchez-of-spain/

"Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Pedro Sánchez of Spain"

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and President Pedro Sánchez of Spain spoke today about preparations for the NATO Summit, which will be held in Madrid on June 29-30, 2022.  The leaders welcomed the opportunity to see each other on the upcoming trip. President Biden thanked President Sánchez for Spain’s hosting of the summit, at which Allies will continue to chart the course of NATO’s transformation over the next decade.  President Biden expressed appreciation for Spain’s close cooperation in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, including its provision of security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its support for strong sanctions on Russia.

White House readout refers to Pedro Sánchez as President of Spain.  Biden did not know he was speaking to PM and not the President of Spain

[jaichind]

Anshually Pedro Sánchez's official title is "Presidente del Gobierno" so he isn't really wrong

Ah ... did not know that.  Thanks for this info.

[jaichind]

Good post but I think one thing needs to be added: PP+VOX would still be on track for government even if Podemos and Sumar were one. its only been six weeks since the spit started being polled, and the Right was still leading by more than enough back then. If anything, the split seems to have drawn previously apathetic voters to one of the two, in a classic example of the phenomenon where the whole not does not equal the sum of its parts in multiparty parliamentary system.

Now obviously things can change in the upcoming months before the vote, but I think this expectation of defeat also feeds into the infighting. Cause a truly fierce internal political rivalry only can occur when there is no pressures to set aside ones differences, even temporarily, in the name of political power.

I have to imagine even if they net some extra votes the way the D'Hondt method allocates seats with thresholds will for sure hurt them from a total net seat point of view.

[jaichind]

How come Sumar did not run any list/candidates in these elections? Or perhaps they did and I just missed it.

[jaichind]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

[jaichind]

Any news on if Sumar and Podemos will run on the same list or separately?  Don't they have to decide this week?

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/spain-far-left-not-enough-225605166.html

"Spain’s Far-Left Not Enough To Save PM Sanchez’s Job, Poll Finds"

refers to a Metroscopia poll

The People’s Party would win 154 seats in parliament and would be able to form a majority in the 350-member house by joining with far-right Vox, who stand to have 40 seats, according to a survey by polling firm Metroscopia. Sanchez’s Socialist party would win 97 seats.

The poll also shows that Sanchez would be unable to retain his job even if a group of far-left parties run on a single ticket on July 23. Sanchez needs support from the far-left to form a government because his Socialist party is unlikely to reach a majority by itself. Because Spain’s electoral system rewards larger parties more than smaller ones, the far-left groups can win more seats if they run together.

[jaichind]

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

[jaichind]

The Bloomberg average of polls has it at

PSOE       PP      Sumar      VOX       Junts  Bildu    ERC       PNV     Other
27.9%    34.2%   13.1%    13.1%   1.8%   1.3%    2.3%    1.3%    5.1%
106        142        33           35          7        6         9          5         7

[jaichind]

Bloomberg's current poll of polls.  PP-VOX at 177

PSOE         PP      Sumar      VOX   Junts    Bildu    ERC   PNV     Other
28.2%    34.2%  13.0%   13.1%    2.0%   1.3%   2.3%  1.3%   4.7%
108         142       38           35        8         6        9        6   

[jaichind]

What happens in case      176 >  (PP + VOX)  > (PSOE + Sumar)  ?

I always assumed that in such a case it will be PSOE + Sumar government with outside support from the anti-VOX regional parties.

[jaichind]

An important point: The turnout updates don't include the mail-in votes. These 2,5 million ballots will be added to the count when polls close.

How does this mail-in vote number compare to the 2019 elections?

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports: The PP believes that if it reaches 160 seats, it’ll be able to convince Vox to allow it govern alone rather than in coalition

[jaichind]

Will Sumar show up on the results wite (https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/inicio/0) as one list of multiple (like Podemos did in the last few elections) ?

[jaichind]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

[jaichind]

VOX spokesperson Ignacio Garriga said the party “won’t give away their votes” and that “they’ll do anything for a change of direction” in Spanish politics

Is it just me or do these seem like contradictory statements

I read it as VOX will join any government that will oust the PSOE government but will insist on being in said government as opposed to being on the outside.

[jaichind]

If PP + VOX are at 170 seats when the results are released in 5 minutes they will probably win a majority but the number of mail votes tripling compared to 2019 can make things unpredictable.

Will they count mail-in votes before, at the same time, or after the election ballots are counted?

[jaichind]

If PP + VOX  fail to win 176 seats one thing to watch later on will be whether Sanchez actually concedes defeat since failure to do so means he will do everything to try to continue in government.

[jaichind]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

[jaichind]

29.62% of precincts reporting:

32.7% PSOE, 133
30.0% PP, 127
11.9% Vox, 33
11.3% Sumar, 29

PSOE+Sumar= 162
PP+Vox= 160

Should we not add UPN to the PP+VOX bloc?