Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[mileslunn]

Pretty sure PP wins, real question is do they have a formal coalition with Vox or just rely on them to pass legislation.  Interesting question is will PP be able to get their tax cuts by 0.5% through?  That will make Madrid a low tax autonomous community by even more.  No doubt some autonomous communities with higher taxes might be worried more well to do will move there although not sure if Spain is like US where well to do leave higher taxed areas (i.e. New York to Florida or California to Texas) for lower taxed or are they more like Canadians where you don't get nearly as much movement (Alberta much lower than Ontario, yet large numbers move when oil prices high thus economy, not when low suggesting lower tax rate not a big determinant there).  My understanding is if tax cut goes through top rate will be 45% in Madrid which is a full 5% below Catalonia which is 50%, and 9% below Valencian Community which is now up to 54% so will this increase tensions with national government who has accused Madrid of fiscal dumping and favor fiscal harmonization?

[mileslunn]

Looks like right wins as expected, but seems PP and Vox underperformed polls although still likely form government.

[mileslunn]

How much of role did lockdowns play as I've heard Madrid has unlike other Spanish Autonomous communities chose to keep things open, sort of Swedish approach.  I know most medical experts are against such thing but what is public's attitude.  I know here in Canada where I live, lockdowns very popular (no one likes them but people feel necessary) and politicians who have re-opened too soon have paid a price in polling numbers.  By contrast in parts of US like Texas and Florida, they have re-opened even when cases still high and their governor's have seen strong approval ratings and quite popular so are a lot in Spain more like Americans than Canadians on this, otherwise want to go back to normal even with risks and happy PP is for re-opening?

[mileslunn]

Speaking of which, yesterday Sanchez unveiled his Economic Recovery plan to get the EU funds. And it is one of the first government measures where I am radically against something (the plan as a whole is already meh, but the toll roads measure in particular annoys me a lot). It is basically a bunch of tax hikes all bundled together. The main measures seem to be:

>Tax increase on workers earning over 4000€ a month (before taxes, equivalent to 2400€ after tax); by removing the cap on Social Security contributions
>Harmonization of the various taxes on inheritances or wealth
>Removal of the joint filing option for married couples (ends up as a tax hike on couples where one member is a high earner and the other one does not pay or has a very low salary)
> Increase of the vehicle taxes
> Diesel taxes will now be the same as gas
> All highways in Spain to become toll roads

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4687330/0/cotizaciones-irpf-patrimonio-las-subidas-de-impuestos-que-el-gobierno-propone-a-bruselas-en-los-proximos-anos/

Personally I am ok with some measures. Particularly the 1st, 3rd and 4th are decently good measures (not amazing by any means but whatever). However I am against everything else with the plan.

I am actually in favour of inheritance and wealth taxes; but my issue here is that it deeply infringes on the rights of the regions. If Madrid wants to have no inheritance or wealth taxes, that is their problem. (I think Spain should advance towards more federalism, not less)

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

What about the earlier promise of income tax hike of 2% on those over 130,000 Euros and 4% over 300K?  They only raised over 300K by 4% and while won't raise a lot of revenue, that might seem an easier sell although I believe Valencian community is popular with British tourists and this would put top rate at 56% so could backfire.  VAT increases I know are political suicide in North America, but in Europe seems public is less opposed to them and they are good revenue raisers.

[mileslunn]

What about the earlier promise of income tax hike of 2% on those over 130,000 Euros and 4% over 300K?  They only raised over 300K by 4% and while won't raise a lot of revenue, that might seem an easier sell although I believe Valencian community is popular with British tourists and this would put top rate at 56% so could backfire.  VAT increases I know are political suicide in North America, but in Europe seems public is less opposed to them and they are good revenue raisers.

I mean, I guess both would happen. To be precise, the new tax hike is a payroll tax increase while what you are describing seems to be an earlier promise of an income tax hike (IRPF)

A VAT rise, while it would raise a ton of money, would definitely be very unpopular since it would be seen as a "tax hike on everyone" (since everyone pays VAT), while at least these measures can be sold as "tax hikes only on the rich"

I guess we'll see the exact new taxes when the next budget gets passed, if it ever does get passed of course.

If they do both that might make Spain uncompetitive but probably won't hurt in short term.  My understanding though is cap just raised not eliminated unless misreading.  If that is case, Madrid will have top rate of 53.85% while Valencian community will be 62.35% which is pretty high although Portugal doesn't cap their social security contributions and has similar #'s.

Road tolls on all though I think could be bad politically as while smart policy, never an easy sell.  Higher gas taxes you might be to sell on idea of encouraging action on climate change and hope more switch to electric cars, but only a revenue raiser in the transition part.

[mileslunn]

Another one:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391027366139506688

It seems collapse of C's really helping right.  Still there is time for things to change nonetheless wouldn't be shocked if right wins in 2023 or sooner if there is an election.  Big problem for right is regionalist parties more likely to support left so may not need to hit 176, but need to be close to it to form government.

Madrid avoided lockdowns and so wondering is that popular?  I know in some countries lockdowns are not popular, but others quite popular and those who push re-opening highly frowned upon as seen as anti-science.

[mileslunn]

Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).

[mileslunn]

If we are to assume the government lasts until 2023 (which imo is generous, I expect an election some time in early 2022), pretty much anything can change.

Remember this was polling just 1 year before the April 2019 election (April 2018)



I agree with Velasco that trying to predict the next general election now is doomed to fail. But this is not a good indicator for Sanchez (it is already a decent comeback that he won in 2019 at all; most were predicting a right wing government through much of 2018 iirc)

Why would it go early though?  PSOE and UP have no reason to and other smaller parties aren't either as regionalist may have issues with government, but idea of a PP-Vox probably scares them.  Never mind C's may want current government gone, but they are on track to get wiped out and lose almost all their seats so yes could be an election next year, but I don't think lasting until 2023 is quite as far fetched as some think considering only PP and Vox have strong incentives for early ones.

[mileslunn]

I

Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).

I might be a bit cynical, but in my view Spain (and in particular the Spanish sociological right) has a fairly strong element of American-style "muh freedom", not as political doctrine but as socially respectable sociopathy.

Ayuso cunningly made regional identity politics out of that streak.

She also spent the pandemic accusing the central government of discriminating against Madrid, even accusing them of "giving away Madrid's vaccines to Andorra".

I could aay say the model implemented by the right during the last 26 years in Madrid favors exacerbated individualism over social responsibility, but maybe I'm speaking like a tertuliano or an amateur sociologist. The fact is that Ayuso campaigned on a peculiar identity associated to Madrid,  based on the idea that freedom consists in low taxes (for the rich), go shopping whenever you please and drink beer in terraces. The Ayuso's slogan "communism or freedom" was incredibly simple and childish, but results prove it was extremely effective. I heard to some analysts and tertulianos that replying that slogan with "fascism or democracy" was a mistake,  because in doing so the left entered in the conceptual mark established by the right.  In the same way, the campaign of Ángel Gabilondo promised not to raise taxes, onstead of campaigning on a fair tax system that funds decent public services for the people of Madrid.  The disturbing events involving hate speech, mails with bullets or the far-right candidate Monasterio ordering Iglesias to leave Spain have not created social alarm on the danger posed by fascism or neofascism. The only strategy that worked to some degree was the Más Madrid campaign, which avoided explicitly these clashes and focused on public services and the idea of a community ruled by empathy and solidarity.

 But Ayuso's idea of freedom won in a landslide and one could reach some pessinistic conclusions about society looking at past weekend, when lockdown was lifted in Madrid and some drunken youngsters told the TV reporters they were celebrating "a la madrileña", because they live in Ayuso's freedom kingdom. Possibly that's an undesired consequence and I'm not demonizing all youngsters as irresponsible (I got drunk more than once and my favorite party is popular in that demographic group).  I just say there is a certain idea of freedom associated to selfishness that is getting popular. Also, it's undeniable that all of us are weary of lockdowns and restrictions and can no longer wait the return of a certain normalcy (including the freedom to get drunk). It seems that people in Madrid voted for normalcy at any cost, regardless pandemic figures are still bad.

On a side note, some friends of mine who are sympathizers believe the intolerable harassment to Pablo Iglesias and his demonization by the right played a role in the modest UP results, downgrading the relative success of MM. I think the latter is unfair, while the former is true in what concerns harassment and hope that haters leave Iglesias alone for once and all

Sort of reminds me of US where a lot take this mentality.  Where I live in Canada, a minority do but it is highly frowned upon and living right next door to US there is a general view here unlimited freedom just creates more problems.  Interesting PSOE opposed tax hikes on rich as Madrid's top rate is still lower so raising it from 45.5% to say 47% would still keep it quite competitive.  I could see maybe in higher taxed autonomous communities like Catalonia or Valencian Community PSOE being against tax hikes on rich as they do risk becoming uncompetitive if moved any higher but Madrid could easily raise a few points on top earners and still remain quite competitive.  In some places soak the rich sells well, but Madrid considering the benefit from many live there maybe doesn't, not familiar.  

Most countries have more conservative areas but just looking across G7, not sure South of England outside London or Bavaria this attitude is common.  Maybe Lombardy and Veneto in Italy, they seem a lot like Madrid.  In US, too many places I won't bother naming them have this mentality.  In Canada, Alberta does in some ways although signs that is beginning to change, but certainly in rural parts the mentality of freedom ahead of everything else still very prevalent.  

[mileslunn]

Last budget was 188-154 in votes so have some margin of error, not a lot but some.  But it may mean more controversial ideas like road tolls get ditched.  I think road tolls are a good idea but if Spain is anything like North America, I suspect won't be politically popular.  Perhaps though maybe should move to vignette system whereby putting tolls at the borders and charge anyone who enters Spain.

Other tax increases seem mostly focused on upper income which will anger them, but I am guessing most of those impacted probably vote PP anyways.  Only question is not sure if that will satisfy EU as rich tend to have more options in changing how they earn their income, say through pass through corporations, as dividends, or capital gains to pay a lower rate so higher rates could push more to switch how they earn income.  There is also risk of re-locating.  That being said even if government raises top rates another 2%, it would still in most of country be below both France and Portugal for top rates while higher than Germany although Madrid would be below Germany (off course if Greens win and get their plan through, German top rates will go up) so some would leave but probably have to raise by more before enough leave for it to cost government money. 

Bigger issue is if deficits don't improve, it will then require either tax hikes on middle class or spending cuts and as we've seen elsewhere in Europe, parties on right can get away with latter as you expect that from them, but for parties on left it is fatal.  PASOK in Greece good example of this.  But at least EU probably won't start coming down hard until 2023 budget so more might jeopardize re-election, not next year's budget.  Off course if Greens win in Germany and heaven forbid LePen wins in France, expect both countries to push hard for looser fiscal rules and usually whatever those two want EU agrees to.

[mileslunn]

Well, a 2nd part of the poll I mentioned yesterday dropped. The most interesting part is the part where they polled people on all of the prospective tax increases from Sanchez's government. And all of them are varying degrees of unpopular with the only exception of taxes on alcohol and tobacco.

If anything they are more unpopular than I thought! Hereis the full poll in Spanish; but for people who don't speak it here it goes

Tolls on highways: Disapprove+72
Eliminating reduced VAT on certain products: Disapprove+28
Gas tax hike: Disapprove+65
Alcohol and Tobacco tax hike: Approve+13
Coroprate tax hike: Disapprove+33
Income tax hike: Disapprove+75
Wealth tax hike: Disapprove+42
Inheritance tax hike: Disapprove+64
Self employed quota hike: Disapprove+78

The methodology is a bit weird since they didn't count "algo de acuerdo" as part of the approve group, but even if you include them many of Sanchez's tax hikes poll on the order of 25-75


They also polled the approvals of all the party leaders. None are good but surprisingly Sanchez no longer leads

Yolanda Díaz: 3.6/10
Pablo Casado: 3.6/10
Pedro Sánchez: 3.4/10
Inés Arrimadas: 3.3/10
Santiago Abascal: 2.8/10

Surprisingly close between all of them

Interesting, thought wealth taxes would be popular.  In Canada where I live they are super popular while income tax hikes, aren't they only on those making over 130,000 Euros and I know in the English speaking world tax hikes on rich quite popular.  Trudeau won in big part on taxing those with incomes over 200K Canadian which is around 130,000 Euros while in US, Biden's plan to raise taxes on those making over 400K US dollars quite popular too.  Off course raising income taxes on middle class very unpopular and in order to fund most things you have to do that thus challenge.

[mileslunn]

Interesting, thought wealth taxes would be popular.  In Canada where I live they are super popular while income tax hikes, aren't they only on those making over 130,000 Euros and I know in the English speaking world tax hikes on rich quite popular.  Trudeau won in big part on taxing those with incomes over 200K Canadian which is around 130,000 Euros while in US, Biden's plan to raise taxes on those making over 400K US dollars quite popular too.  Off course raising income taxes on middle class very unpopular and in order to fund most things you have to do that thus challenge.

Yeah, for whatever reason, the right's propaganda campaign against any and all tax increases has surprisingly worked extremely well. While I definitely think the toll roads propsal or the VAT increase are extremely stupid and bad, I am surprised to see so many people against increases to income tax or especially hiking the wealth tax.

I definitely know about the #StopSucesiones campaign led by Vox in Andalucia was a total success and indeed almost the first thing the right did when they got into power there was repeal the inheritance tax.

The income tax increase isn't an increase per se, but rather Sánchez getting rid of the joint filing option. Not that many people do joint filing in Spain but it's basically an increase on families where one member has a lot of income and the other member very little.

(there might also be an increase on those making over 300k € but I am not sure)

I think plan was originally a 2 point hike on incomes over 130,000 Euros and 4 points over 300,000 Euros, but so far only raised by 2 points on over 300K.  That being said GOP always attacked Democrats over this, but Biden's promise to not raise taxes on anyone making less than 400K helped a lot so wouldn't PSOE be smart to do that?  Problem is Spain has a lot fewer rich people than US does never mind as an EU member, they can easily re-locate to countries with lower top rates thus probably wouldn't come close to EU targets.  But besides once EU brings back deficit rules, tax hikes or spending cuts will be required no matter who is in power.

[mileslunn]

Don't follow Spanish politics as closely as some do, but my guess is Sanchez probably figured odds of winning were very low so better to go early before PP and Vox had time to plan everything and catch them off guard.  Likely won't save him from defeat though.  This year in Europe has definitely been good for right gaining Finland, likely majority in Greece, and probably soon Spain as well as Sweden last fall.  Actually seems left outside English speaking countries doing horrible in Europe with UK & Ireland only two seem to be looking good.

[mileslunn]

While most likely outcome is PP + Vox get majority, what happens if they fall short?  Since PSOE + Sumar probably more likely to get regional support save perhaps a few, what is minimum PP + Vox need in seats to form government realistically.  If relying on regional ones, does it mean new elections or will enough swing behind one group to ensure a government forms?

[mileslunn]

In return what would PSOE + Sumar need to form government?  My guess is regionalist parties might abstain but unlikely to endorse them.  So what would they need for that as I suspect at 160 not enough but 165 potentially enough for PSOE + Sumar?

[mileslunn]

Gordon Brown: Spain's elections are a key battle in the struggle against neofascism in Europe

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/14/spain-election-europe-neo-fascism-vox-germany-finland

A PP-Vox government would shift EU politics to the right, reinforcing the strategic alliance between Manfred Weber and Giorgia Meloni

Feijóo was confronted by a RTVE journalist when he assured past PP governments increased pensions indexed to the inflation rates,  which is false. Even though Feijóo said he would apologize in case he was wrong, the PP candidate didn't do it and claims he didn't tell lies, for he was just "incorrect".or "imprecise". The problem is that Feijóo is never correct or precise with data and he's neither good with numbers  

 I think Feijóo is a liar and a mediocre unworthy of the post,  but he's the man with the best chances to be the next Spanish PM.  

On the other hand, Feijoo's ally Santiago Abascal says tensions will inevitably rise in Catalonia when PP and Vox reach power. The Vox leader was crystal clear saying the situation in Catalonia will be even worse than 2017

It does seem non-English speaking European countries really are drifting to right quite a bit, any reason for that?  UK & Ireland seem only good news in polls for left at moment but in both cases probably more fatigue with present government and in case of Ireland not sure Sinn Fein would enter government anyways.  UK sort of had their fill with right wing populism over Brexit so maybe one bright light how it doesn't last, but also none of the right wing populist parties proposing anything as economically damaging as Brexit.  And I think economic damage shifts people more than culture wars does against hard right.

[mileslunn]

Any reason why PSOE doing well so far?  Is it mostly more left wing areas coming in so far and based on results so far, what is most likely outcome?  I noticed Madrid hasn't reported which I suspect helps PP.

[mileslunn]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

[mileslunn]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

[mileslunn]

Feijóo has said he has talked with the leaders of UPN, CC, PNV, and Vox. UPN will support him, while CC "left the door open", according to him. PNV supporting a Feijóo government would be something... well...let's say weird. Not sure how would Vox even support this, they are agaist regional parties, but, who knows, power can make people do inconcebible things.

But, I just don't know what will happen. It's very messy and confusing. Never has the Portuguese saying been so true: "De Espanha, nem bom vento, nem bom casamento." ("From Spain, neither good wind, nor good marriage.")

Only way he gets CC let alone PNV would be to govern alone but get those to vote for him on investiture.  Vox probably would only agree to that if he agrees to incorporate some of their policies.

That would be the equivalent of doing the pirouette, the somersault and the handstand all at the same time.

So I am guessing in end new elections are a strong likelihood?  While PP + Vox close to majority I don't see them getting over line unless can get some abstentions.  With PSOE + Sumar even more daunting.  Yes regionalist allies get them a lot closer but not sure enough to get over line either.

[mileslunn]

Did CC rule out supporting PP?  In Canary Islands they are in coalition together although that excludes Vox and I believe CC made clear they would not support one with them.

[mileslunn]

To add onto the “BigSerg is a bumbling idiot” takes, removing Catalonia from Spain would obviously change the politics of the country itself to an extent that old coalitions may just completely fall apart. There are probably plenty who have formed entire political identities around a perceived attack on “Spanish culture” and opposition to secessionism, and removing a key thing fueling that anger could very well cause a massive shift in their voting patterns. For the record this also would mean that Catalonia would not be a uniformly left leaning country even if it votes close to it right now.

Often linguistically and cultural minorities more left wing.  No different than Scotland vs. England or Quebec vs. rest of Canada and probably also some if gained statehood of Puerto Rico vs. current 50 states.  Even in Belgium Wallonia is pretty left wing but offset by Flanders which is at least on economic and cultural issues (not social though) quite right wing.

True unlike other examples, Catalonia is wealthier than most of Spain whereas others poorer than respective countries so that is one difference.

Agreed, but for the last statement. Yes there is a rather nativist current in Catalan nationalism, but nothing like Flemish nationalism or even the Vox brand of nationalism (which isn't racial because the Empire for them is a big deal, but is exclusionary).

I would bet by bottom dollar Catalonia would be a remarkably more progressive society than Spain, which already has admirable social attitudes towards LGBT, etc. Catalonia already has legalised weed, banned bullfighting, and a host of other progressive measures. The whole "Convergencia is comparable to PP" doesn't stand up either. Yes Convergents were the kind of people to care about low taxes, but they were still markedly more progressive than any Spanish right wing entity.

[mileslunn]

It seems like the gay is a wedge issue everywhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/26/pedro-sanchez-spain-general-election-hard-right

“In this most recent campaign he skillfully played the anti-fascist card, harnessing the shock of the far-right Vox party’s entry into a series of municipal and regional coalition governments to mobilise progressive voters. As pride flags were being removed from city halls across the country and gender equality initiatives suppressed, Sánchez framed the vote as a binary choice between a similar hard-right coalition at a national level and his own brand of moderate social democracy.”

Unless it’s Russia or Serbia or Hungary, messing with the gay is bad for your political health it seems (here’s looking at you, DeSantis). Praise Jesus.

Gay marriage is largely a settled issue in most Western countries and trying to roll it back is not a vote winner.  Yes running on anti-LGBT stuff is a vote winner in many parts of world, not just Eastern Europe, but Africa, Caribbean, Middle East etc.  However, Spain has allowed gay marriage for 18 years and was one of first countries to do so, thus it is status quo and all the negative predictions never materialized so most fine with it.

[mileslunn]

This discussion about how the Spanish right would benefit from Catalonia seceding reminds me of how many conservatives in Canada were secretly hoping Quebec would vote to separate since the extreme unpopularity of the Conservatives in Quebec always made it almost impossible for them to win power nationally.   

Was it that secret? It's never been the stance of the CPC, or any party that truly fought for national power in Canada, but Reform was openly agnostic on the question of Quebec independence, and I think "better apart" is a pretty common sentiment among the Western Canadian non-fringe far-right (here meaning things like the right half of conservative parties, not random people on the Internet).

It's maybe not relevant to a thread on Spain, but it's interesting to consider why the Canadian right is such an outlier here, compared to the Spanish PP or British Tories which are horrified by the prospects of Catalan or Scottish independence. (Note that, as BK has documented, Catalonia isn't actually all that much of a problem for the Spanish right -- and in the pre-Vox days CiU had been a partner in at least one PP-led government -- but certainly Scotland is a very real problem for the British Tories. Quebec seems somewhere in between; BQ does not seem as hostile to the CPC as the SNP is to the Tories.) Part of the story here might be that Catalonia is much wealthier than the rest of Spain, so it receives population growth from the remainder of the country, creating a demographic which is very invested in Catalonia remaining Spanish, while Quebec has the opposite pattern, with English speakers tending to move out. This doesn't explain Scotland, though.

It might be explained by "Canadian" being a much younger identity than "British" or "Spanish", I guess. It seems like relatively more Canadians tend to identify with their particular province rather than the federal Canadian project as a whole.

Catalonia is wealthier is big reason since if separated Spain would likely have to raise taxes, something right generally opposes whereas if Quebec left, Canada could likely cut taxes as they cost more to taxpayers than pay in.  Although I think in Europe in general economics is not a big issue on this and its more nationalism.  Countries there go back centuries so I think reason British Tories and right in Spain favour keeping Catalonia and Scotland is both are about nationalism and pride in country and losing part is seen as weakening of nation.

In Canada its mostly Conservatives in Prairies and West, few in Ontario or Atlantic Canada would be happy to see Quebec go.  It is partly economics, but partly also see no connection due to geographical distance as well as Canada is a relatively young country so nationalist argument not as strong.  Also living in Canada, overwhelming majority on right who want Quebec to leave come from one province, Alberta.  Not sure Spain or UK have an equivalent of Alberta so that might be bigger reason.  In fact on economics Catalonia is probably closest to Alberta in Spain while in UK, it would be London which generally votes Labour.  In neither country do you have the richest sub national unit being quite right wing.  I guess Madrid is somewhat like Alberta in being right wing and better off, but also in its power more like Ontario.

[mileslunn]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

There’s that and the fact that she’ll energize PP voters generally

Unlike US, I think that is less case in Europe as turnout tends to be much higher so its more about persuading people to switch not energizing base.  That works more in US due to lower turnout.  For EU elections and regional may be case as they tend to have lower turnouts than national.  Not saying she couldn't win but elections generally fought over persuading those on fence, not on who you can turnout.