Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is an outright PP majority possible?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Puente de Vallecas among the safest districts in Madrid for the left?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Puente de Vallecas among the safest districts in Madrid for the left?

Indeed, in fact the right is only taking 36% of the vote with 85% of the district in.

Problem is the PSOE and MM are taking almost the same % each, which allows a plurality win for the PP.

Feeling sorry for Ángel Gabilondo. He never stood a chance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't Puente de Vallecas among the safest districts in Madrid for the left?

Indeed, in fact the right is only taking 36% of the vote with 85% of the district in.

Problem is the PSOE and MM are taking almost the same % each, which allows a plurality win for the PP.

Feeling sorry for Ángel Gabilondo. He never stood a chance.

Ángel Gabilondo is an excellent person and he 's not responsible for this catastrophe.The PSOE campaign was directed by Iván Redondo et alii from La Moncloa

 

Even if he was directing the campaign, I wouldn't blame him for this, given it was pretty much out of his control. Ayuso was always in the drivers seat, and the battlefield was tilted decisively in her favor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how exactly did the Murcia no-confidence motion lead to Madrid getting a revote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how exactly did the Murcia no-confidence motion lead to Madrid getting a revote?

The motion gave a pretext to Isabel Diaz Ayuso, who was looking forward to break the coalition government and get rid of her partners. Just remember the PP got its worst historical result in the 2019 elections, but remained in power thanks to a coalition agreement with Cs and the outside support from Vox. The relationship between Ayuso and her coalition partners was strained since the beginning, pretty much like the trlationship between pro-independence parties in Catalonia. Tensions aggravated with the pandemic and the state of alarm, both fue to personal antipathy and the different strategies adopted by PP and Cs. Isabel Diaz Ayuso championed the most belligerent and confrontational stance against the central government, while Cs was seeking a more centrist and constructive approach. Madrid PP and Cs have also serious differences on specific health measures to fight the pandemic, as well there were serious issues with the management of the tragic situation in the nursing homes for old people. Cs managed rhe latter through the Social Affairs department, while the PP managed Healthcare. Apparently the protocol approved by the Healthcare department was rejecting the admisión in hospitals of patients coming from nursing homes, which had thousands of dead due to the coronavirus. The issue is that Isabel Diaz Ayuso was performing well in the polls thanks to her policy of confrontation,  while Cs was in a situation of extreme weakness after the November 2019 catastrophic elections. Ayuso had the intent to call a snap election in 2020,  but Casado did not allow her to do so.

The motion of no-confidence in Murcia was a serious miscalculation for two reasons:

a) Because it didn't take into account the serious division existing within Cs on the centrist and cooperative approach of Inés Arrimadas,  nor the even more serious structural weakness of the orange organization. The PP had no problems in buying half of the Cs parliamentary group in Murcia's regional assembly.

b) Because neither PSOE nor Cs didn'tvtake into account that Isabel Diaz Ayuso was looking for a pretext to call a snap rlection, break the coakutuon government and destroy Cs. The surprise and perplexity of Ignacio Aguado when Ayuso announced dissolution were simply pathetic.

On a side note, I always remind you yhat Iñigo Errejón offered a way out of the block politics. Imagine that Cs had accepted the offer to govern in coalition with the PSOE,  propped up by Más Madrid.  The story would have been very different. When PSOE and Csxattempted to break the block politics in Murcia it was simply too late and too poorly planned

Thank you very much for the rundown. It explained everything I wanted to know more about, and more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

They hate each other? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

I mean, in a Spanish context there are quite a few historical reasons the two would have disagreements.

I wasn't surprised they disagreed - indeed often the bitterest rivalries are within the same camp...factionalists.

Narcissism of small differences.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Andalucia, Vox has removed their support for the PP-C's government because of the regional government approval to receive refugees from Ceuta. What's the likelihood of an early election, again, in this region?

I don't know, but in a big upset yesterday, Vox abstained against a big project to make a zoning reform in Andalucia, which ended with the law failing. So depending on how agressive Vox is with them voting down everything, there might be an election relatively soon, perhaps after the sumer?

What is the big reform about and why did Vox vote against it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.

Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.

Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.

Hence "Empty Spain".  It had nearly twice that in the mid 20th century.

What sort of people are voting for the Leonese regionalists and for Por Ávila?  I note the former got very high shares in some parts of León province, quite widely over 30% in areas around León city and in the north-east, and locally over 40%.  El Bierzo doesn't seem very interested in them, on the other hand, and nor do Zamora or Salamanca provinces.

Soria's population density is slightly lower than that of the territory of the Highlands Council in Scotland.
So yes, Empty Spain indeed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can’t believe Casado’s managed to take down both major PP leaders at the same time.

What do you mean exactly? Casado has surrendered already and right now he must be negotiating the terms of the armistice to hand power over the Galician 'baron'. Ayuso remains in place

I think he means that, even though Casado comitted political suicide, he also killed the "aura" of Ayuso, as it seems clear, right now, that there was a clear conflict of interest, at least, between her and the dealings with her brother.

Yes, all right.  The thing is, I am afraid, Ayuso resembles Trump a little and her "populist aura" is rather strong. I mean, many people here is in the opinion that Ayuso's fans care little about conflicts if interest. By the moment this affair prevents her from taking over national leadership, but she is young and the memory of public opinion is weak.  Also, it's up to see how Feijoo will manage to cope with Vox. This is the elephant in the room for the PP leadership, because there are no other choices available. Ayuso would have no problem in signing coalition deals with Vox, but the case of Feijoo is different. He has been governing Galicia with comfortable majorities since 2009, but parliamentary majorities are not possible in Spain with the current fragmentation. In order to regain power the PP will have to engage in coalitions, either with Vox or with the PSOE

Could a PSOE-PP coalition even work?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These will be the second elections where 70 deputies will be elected and they will also be the second to be held with the new electoral law approved in 2018 through the reform of the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands (Organic Law 1/2018, of November 5, reform of the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands 1 ​). Until 2018, the electoral system was known as the "triple parity" system since three rules were met: the sum of the deputies from the capital islands had to be the same as the non-capital islands; the sum of deputies from the province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife should be the same as that of the province of Las Palmas and the sum of deputies from the two capital islands ( Gran Canaria andTenerife ) should be the same between them. Therefore, until 2019, Gran Canaria and Tenerife would be represented by 15 deputies each; Lanzarote and La Palma with 8; Fuerteventura with 7; La Gomera with 4 and El Hierro with 3. This caused paradoxes in the distribution of deputies in parliament, since La Palma had one more seat than Fuerteventura despite the latter having a larger population than the palm island at least since the 2000s .. On the other hand, the islands had great differences in terms of the representation ratio of deputies in the insular constituencies: Tenerife has one deputy for every 62,109 people while El Hierro has one for every 3,807 inhabitants). 2

For this reason, this system has been altered and the problems that this system may present in terms of the representation of each island corrected. With the addition of one more deputy for Fuerteventura , two of the three triple parity criteria have been broken, since the non-capital islands have one more seat than the capital ones and the province of Las Palmas has one more than that of Santa tenerife cross. On the other hand, an autonomous constituency was created made up of nine deputies elected from among all the islands and thus neutralize the differences in representation between the capital and peripheral islands. Finally, the island electoral barriers have dropped from 30% of valid votes to 15%, and from 6% at the regional level to 4%. Therefore, if a formation obtains at least 4% of the vote obtained in the autonomous constituency, it will also be able to opt for a seat.

From Spanish Wikipedia, describing the Canary Islands system. (google translate from Spanish to English)
Weird system.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

That was not on my bingo card.

That wasn't in anyone's card

No doubt Pedro Sánchez is an audacious man. Jesus Christ

Perhaps he's betting that the left will get its act together if this is how urgent the situation is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if no candidate gets a majority Trias becomes Mayor of Barcelona automatically?

Yes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

Bring back the Spanish flags and the Spanish language to Valencia. With the Frankenstein government, the Esteladas (Catalan flags) and the Catalan language completely dominated the Valencian courts.

So that's it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Working with Australian magazines to evade Spanish polling regulations"
They can't be accused of lacking creativity...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

los liberales

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6,4% de la población
Movilización electoral: alta
Intención de voto: 87% PP, 8% Vox
El 96% se opone a un referéndum pactado sobre la independencia de Cataluña.
El 95% se opone a prohibir las corridas de toros.
El 94% se opone a reducir el consumo de carne para limitar el sufrimiento de los animales.
El 92% está a favor de la apertura de centrales nucleares en España.
El 91% se opone a abolir la monarquía e instaurar una república.
El 90% se opone a instaurar la pena de muerte para los asesinos de niños.
Son uno de los grupos con mayor nivel educativo y económico en España, donde los ejecutivos y las profesiones intelectuales están claramente sobrerrepresentados. Están especialmente presentes en Madrid y en menor medida en Andalucía y Murcia, mientras que apenas tienen peso en Catalunya. Son un grupo politizado, con opiniones firmes sobre la mayoría de temas. Son favorables al cambio de sexo, a la adopción por parte de parejas homosexuales y a la inmigración, y se oponen a la instauración de la pena de muerte. Son defensores de las libertades individuales y, en general, se oponen a medidas restrictivas, incluso por motivos ecológicos. En términos económicos, quieren aumentar el apoyo a las empresas, privatizar y reducir impuestos. Se oponen ferozmente al empleo público.

Están comprometidos con la monarquía y la Iglesia, aunque tengan opiniones divididas sobre la idea de ampliar los poderes del rey o fortalecer la educación católica en las escuelas. Están muy movilizados en las elecciones y todo indica que votarán abrumadoramente al PP después de la desaparición de Ciudadanos.

It seems they weighed my strongly anti-getting rid of the monarchy and firmly unionist (but still pro-autonomous community) responses quite heavily. This is not surprising of a response. But in fact, based on what Velasco has said, the union is in safe hands under PSOE, and they are a very good party for me.

EDIT: took quiz again and got the following.

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8,1% de la población
Movilización electoral: baja
Intención de voto: 54% PSOE, 22% PP, 16% Sumar
El 90% se opone a la introducción de un test intelectual para conceder el derecho de voto.
El 88% se opone al restablecimiento de la pena de muerte para los asesinos de niños.
El 88% se opone a prohibir la enseñanza en lenguas cooficiales.
El 87% se opone al bloqueo de los barcos de inmigrantes.
El 85% se opone al derecho de los policías a disparar a las personas que les amenacen.
El 77% se opone a un referéndum pactado sobre la independencia de Catalunya.
Son un grupo intergeneracional, mayoritariamente de clase media-baja, compuesto por empleados, obreros y jubilados. A diferencia de otros grupos de izquierda, la mayoría son creyentes, pero poco practicantes. Destacan principalmente por tener posiciones poco marcadas en la mayoría de las principales divisiones que estructuran la sociedad española, incluyendo la relación con la Iglesia o la monarquía. Sin embargo, son progresistas en términos de valores: rechazan la pena de muerte, defienden los derechos LGBT y son favorables a los inmigrantes. Moderados y poco politizados, forman parte de los votantes menos predispuestos para ir a votar en las próximas elecciones.

Sin embargo, cuando votan, generalmente lo hacen mayoritariamente por el PSOE. Para el 23-J, Sumar y PP parecen atraer a una pequeña parte de este grupo sin amenazar la hegemonía del PSOE.

It seems I am on the border between social democrat and liberal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

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Apparently these people also made this.
Deeply disturbing, to say the least.
I think it's saying that Abascal will make anime real? And telling people their waifus want them to vote for VOX?
The sad thing is that I could see this working on some people...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How soon does vote counting start?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Heading to bed now. Expecting a de-facto PSOE victory, but we'll see when the votes get counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Right is now climbing. It's at 164 with 62% in.
But, likely, too little too late.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the political differences between Ceuta and Melilla? What explains the former going PSOE and the latter going PP?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Amazing feat by Sanchez.

When's the last time any EU election did not underestimate the right-wing? Corbyn?

Probably sooner than that, surely?