OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have neither seen nor heard a single Vance ad since the primary. I don't think I've heard of him stumping anywhere either. Even going by the conventional wisdom that summer is a sleepy time for campaigns/voters aren't paying attention yet, it's kinda bizarre how quiet he's been. I do hope it continues though; I literally can't stand hearing his voice.

Seconded

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Who would have thought someone who has ran 11 successful campaigns would be better at campaigning than someone who has never run any campaign and had polar opposite policy positions five years ago?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown won in 2018 and that was not a Prez yr

[Brittain33]

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

[SnowLabrador]

Perhaps Indiana 2012?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

Sherrod Brown 2018, 2018 wasn't that much a banner yr we won 41 H seats but we lost MO, IN, FL and ND

Tester and Manchin won in 2018, the reason why Trump won OH in 2016, Rob Portman and there wasn't a Senate race in 2o20 but Blks are 12 percent of the population, OH is a swing state Obama and Biden won twice it's not that red, it's purple too

If Ryan wins he will instantly join the ranks with Harris and NEWSOM for Prez in 2028, he ran in 2020 but endorsed Biden

Just like users think WI and IA are red you see the polls in IA every IA CONGRESS district except 4 has D's within MOE but let's not forget Rs are cheating with Voting Suppression laws and Gerrymandering by this right wing CRT, Rs aren't winning this Election by themselves

[Xing]

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

Had Kander won, it would’ve been MO-SEN 2016, due to the environment being less than ideal (I realize some have already made the comparison.) I still don’t buy this being at all winnable for Ryan, though a single-digit Vance win might be more likely now.

[Pollster]

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

Maybe Nevada 2006? Party in power wins a Senate race in a midterm in a state trending away from them? Even then, though, Ensign was the incumbent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And now JD Vance is essentially arguing that women should stay in "violent" marriages instead of getting divorced because children are better off in an abusive household than they are in a non-abusive household where one of the parents divorced the other to escape domestic violence.  Vance also said that he was "skeptical" about whether victims of domestic violence were better off divorcing their abuser to escape said domestic violence than they would be if they were unable divorce to their abuser.  

https://politicalwire.com/2022/07/25/j-d-vance-says-people-should-stay-in-violent-marriages/

Here is the full quote:

“This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'  And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages."

I don't know if it matters in today's hyper-partisan political environment, but this sort of thing is probably about as close as you can get to a Todd Akin "legitimate rape" or a Richard Mourdock-level gaffe these days.  

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

Maybe Donnelly beating Mourdock in 2012?  2012 was obviously a less Republican year than 2022, but (IIRC) Indiana was also a significantly more Republican than than Ohio is today.

[wbrocks67]

These R senate candidates really seem to be doing everything they can to possibly lose.

[Storr]

And now JD Vance is essentially arguing that women should stay in "violent" marriages instead of getting divorced because children are better off in an abusive household than they are in a non-abusive household where one of the parents divorced the other to escape domestic violence.  Vance also said that he was "skeptical" about whether victims of domestic violence were better off divorcing their abuser to escape said domestic violence than they would be if they were unable divorce to their abuser.  

https://politicalwire.com/2022/07/25/j-d-vance-says-people-should-stay-in-violent-marriages/

Here is the full quote:

“This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'  And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages."

I don't know if it matters in today's hyper-partisan political environment, but this sort of thing is probably about as close as you can get to a Todd Akin "legitimate rape" or a Richard Mourdock-level gaffe these days.  

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

Maybe Donnelly beating Mourdock in 2012?  2012 was obviously a less Republican year than 2022, but (IIRC) Indiana was also a significantly more Republican than than Ohio is today.

Top voted comment on politicalwire.com: "Pro tip: staying in a violent marriage does not work for the kids, either."

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m as beaten down and cynical about the double standards republicans get but these comments by JD are getting a lot of traction

[Nyvin]

And now JD Vance is essentially arguing that women should stay in "violent" marriages instead of getting divorced because children are better off in an abusive household than they are in a non-abusive household where one of the parents divorced the other to escape domestic violence.  Vance also said that he was "skeptical" about whether victims of domestic violence were better off divorcing their abuser to escape said domestic violence than they would be if they were unable divorce to their abuser.  

https://politicalwire.com/2022/07/25/j-d-vance-says-people-should-stay-in-violent-marriages/

Here is the full quote:

“This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'  And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages."

I don't know if it matters in today's hyper-partisan political environment, but this sort of thing is probably about as close as you can get to a Todd Akin "legitimate rape" or a Richard Mourdock-level gaffe these days.  

It's almost like he's trying to lose at this point.   

[ꙮ]

And now JD Vance is essentially arguing that women should stay in "violent" marriages instead of getting divorced because children are better off in an abusive household than they are in a non-abusive household where one of the parents divorced the other to escape domestic violence.  Vance also said that he was "skeptical" about whether victims of domestic violence were better off divorcing their abuser to escape said domestic violence than they would be if they were unable divorce to their abuser.  

https://politicalwire.com/2022/07/25/j-d-vance-says-people-should-stay-in-violent-marriages/

Here is the full quote:

“This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'  And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages."

I don't know if it matters in today's hyper-partisan political environment, but this sort of thing is probably about as close as you can get to a Todd Akin "legitimate rape" or a Richard Mourdock-level gaffe these days.  

It's almost like he's trying to lose at this point.  

Despite his best efforts he's likely going to win against his will.

[Roll Roons]

I honestly wonder if Vance doesn't even want to be a Senator at this point. I'm not even sure why he ran in the first place.

[Blair]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I honestly wonder if Vance doesn't even want to be a Senator at this point. I'm not even sure why he ran in the first place.

Isn't his long-term goal simply to tout Peter Thiel and his foundation (along with Blake Masters)?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan and the OH dems seem to be doing fine on fundraising though ? Think Tim Ryan has pretty much reached the limit of what money can buy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I honestly wonder if Vance doesn't even want to be a Senator at this point. I'm not even sure why he ran in the first place.

Rs assumes like MT Treasure that it would be a 245 RH and 54 S Eric Trump got on Fox news and Hannity and quoted that number and Vance was gonna walk in as Senator but gas prices and Airline tickets are going way down, the airlines are begging for passenger now

It's always a 303 map since 2016 and we won OH and KS in 2018 with a 303 Map

Just like Trump assumes he is gonna be Prez and all our incumbent Govs in MI, WI, PA are gonna be reelected, even EVERS

Look at MT Treasure R nut map now he still in thinks Mills and Whitmer Grisham are we gonna loose

That's why the compiled map which predicted Bevin to win KY will be wrong if it stays that way

[wbrocks67]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

[Blair]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

You’ll see I specified that money needs to go to the state party or people who know how to organise rather than just the campaigns or random super Pacs!

[wbrocks67]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

You’ll see I specified that money needs to go to the state party or people who know how to organise rather than just the campaigns or random super Pacs!

... and Tim Ryan has served in congress for what, two decades or something? I think his team probably knows how to organize.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

You’ll see I specified that money needs to go to the state party or people who know how to organise rather than just the campaigns or random super Pacs!

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00016899/1618498/
The parties fundraising seems pretty ok ?

[MillennialModerate]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

[Ferguson97]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.