OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Brittain33]

OMG, someone mentioned JD Vance as a Republican candidate. Please no.

I agree that is either Lean or Likely R depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to tolerate this far out, but is very likely to be Likely R by summer 2022.

[Brittain33]

Not even Nina Turner is delusional enough to think she should switch races.

[Brittain33]

Coming soon... “COME JOIN US TIM” featuring Cal, Sara, Steve, Jaime, Barbara...

[Brittain33]

This is obviously very likely R and the Republican replacing Portman will be worse.
But is there any chance Tim Ryan will run for this because of his district being unwinnable after redistricting?

It seems like the smartest move for him, doesn’t it? And if he loses, he can fall upward into a job with Biden.

[Brittain33]

OMG, someone mentioned JD Vance as a Republican candidate. Please no.

I agree that is either Lean or Likely R depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to tolerate this far out, but is very likely to be Likely R by summer 2022.

The more I think about it, the more Lean R feels like wishcasting given the track record of open senate seats in midterms where the President lost the state 2 years earlier. This is Likely R, full stop.

[Brittain33]

The more I think about it, the more Lean R feels like wishcasting given the track record of open senate seats in midterms where the President lost the state 2 years earlier. This is Likely R, full stop.

When are the last times this has happened for the Democrats? For the GOP I can think of Iowa 2014, Illinois and Pennsylvania 2010, Minnesota 2002.

Could the last occurrence be (slimeball) Evan Bayh in Indiana 1998?

We're totally screwed.

I should have been more precise - where the victorious President lost the state in the previous general election, i.e. a midterm for your own party's President. Parties win senate seats in midterms where they lost the state and the electoral college in the previous general election all the time.

So the only midterms to look at for Dems are 2014, 2010, 1998, and 1994, and the only positive examples are Indiana and NC in 1998. For Republicans, you have MN in 2002.

[Brittain33]

Likely R.

Likely R -> Likely R

[Brittain33]

It seems like a pandemic doctor’s experience might not be that relevant or compelling by November 2022.

[Brittain33]

If anyone has good suggestions for a thread title, I will update

[Brittain33]

Need to see polls

Works

[Brittain33]

Being Jewish, seeing a Jewish politician repeatedly say some version of the 14 words to try to fit in with white nationalists and become their leader makes me want to vomit.

[Brittain33]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fixated-on-ohio-senate-candidate-josh-mandels-sex-life
Rumors are Trump doesn't want Mandel to win the nomination, as he thinks he's weird, hates his personality and thinks he has no charisma.

This reminds me when rumors came out that Trump found Kimberly Guilfoyle annoying and was upset she was helping the wrong candidate in a primary. I don’t know about Mandel’s sex life but he’s absolutely right, he is a charisma-free weirdo who doesn’t look attractive.

[Brittain33]

Timken has an uphill battle for a Trump endorsement because she’s a woman competing with men, but it’s possible if her allies get in Trump’s ear.

[Brittain33]

I think when we compare Ryan to Dem disappointments for Senate in Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, and Kansas, it does matter that Ohio has voted Democratic for statewide federal elections in recent memory, for Brown and Obama, and none of those other states where Dems briefly had polling hopium had done so in ages. Yes, Trump won by a lot in 2020, and Ohio is huge in non-college white voters who have been swinging Republican, but it shouldn’t be unthinkable that a Democrat would be competitive in the right circumstances.

[Brittain33]

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/j-d-vance-on-abortion-states-need-to-figure-this-stuff-out-143672389727

That's the correct answer for him to give but I'm curious how much of the pro-life base is as pragmatic as he is.

[Brittain33]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

So Elliott County is a tossup in 2024?

When was the last time Kentucky went Democratic in a statewide federal election? 1996 for President and 1992 for Senate, vs.  2012 and 2018 for Ohio.

[Brittain33]

What is the precedent for Tim Ryan winning? Would it be Heidi Heitkamp in 2012? Open seat, but demographics and Presidential votes are fatal to Dems? ND at least had a stronger track record of Democratic senators than Ohio, although Ohio has one which is better than zero.

2012 was clearly a better Dem year than 2022 can ever hope to be but ND then was redder than Ohio now.

[Brittain33]

Vance is a fake Appalachian, not a fake Ohioan.

[Brittain33]

Buried in this WaPo article about the NRSC - Vance's internal polling is worse than public polling showing Ryan ahead.

Several public polls recently showed Ryan leading, and internal Republican surveys found Vance with an even bigger deficit, according to people familiar with the findings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/

[Brittain33]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

It’s been consistently Likely R for several months, and will never be Safe R unless Ryan has a thermonuclear scandal.

[Brittain33]

I really have Indiana 2012 vibes. An above average democrat candidate who decided to run because they destroyed his district with a ing bad republican candidate.

I don't think that should be enough but After all Donnelly overperformed Obama by 15 points sooooo

538 said a Democrat may be able to overperform baseline by 10 points, but 15 points is much harder. That’s why there’s a path for Ryan if it’s an average year.

[Brittain33]

Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

Yes, but that's a Trafalgar poll, which also gave Tiffany Smilie in Washington a significantly higher percentage of the vote than she earned from real votes in her state's combined primary. Vance is favored on the fundamentals, but he hasn't "hit 50".

[Brittain33]

especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favored.

Is there anyone who thinks that? There are several of us who have controversially suggested the race might be Lean R, not Likely R (or "Safe R, nothing to see here.") But even a Lean R race means Vance is favored.

[Brittain33]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

[Brittain33]

The incumbency vote for Trump is “I don’t like Trump, but he’s focused on keeping my employer open when I need a paycheck and I don’t want to take a chance with Biden shutting things down or bringing socialism in.”