OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1353771453146165248

No surprise

[Nyvin]

Ahem...

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/lebron-james-us-senate-calls-ramp-up-portman-decision

Yes I know it's Fox News but still, would be an interesting primary if LeBron ends up running. He's arguably the most popular current NBA star at the moment.

Realistically though I think it's probably gonna be Jim Jordan vs Tim Ryan in the general.

Jordan vs Ryan is probably the best bet for Democrats to win

[Nyvin]

It's Amy Acton

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1379503137552281600

So Tim Ryan is pretty much going to be unopposed in the primary now,  maybe that raises his chances in the general from 10% to 11%.

[Nyvin]

So... how's that Dolan surge looking?

Very real, he went from single digits to >20% support in the span of like a week. What kind of comment is that?

All he did was receiving votes from democrats who crossed to the GOP primary to stop Vance/Mandel. His early voting heavy pattern screams democrats hijacking the primary just like how Thad Cochran survived in 2014.

He's not a Trump fanatic, but he seems pretty conservative when I read about him.   He's definitely not a moderate in the same accord as Collins or Murkowski.

[Nyvin]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

The Democrats actually did win 3 State Supreme Court races since 2006.

[Nyvin]

And now JD Vance is essentially arguing that women should stay in "violent" marriages instead of getting divorced because children are better off in an abusive household than they are in a non-abusive household where one of the parents divorced the other to escape domestic violence.  Vance also said that he was "skeptical" about whether victims of domestic violence were better off divorcing their abuser to escape said domestic violence than they would be if they were unable divorce to their abuser.  

https://politicalwire.com/2022/07/25/j-d-vance-says-people-should-stay-in-violent-marriages/

Here is the full quote:

“This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'  And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages."

I don't know if it matters in today's hyper-partisan political environment, but this sort of thing is probably about as close as you can get to a Todd Akin "legitimate rape" or a Richard Mourdock-level gaffe these days.  

It's almost like he's trying to lose at this point.   

[Nyvin]

The ONE THING that might actually cause Ryan to win this would be low turnout Trump voters not showing up to vote in a midterm in large enough numbers.   Probably the single key factor to Ryan's chances.