OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R at best, but it would be even harder to beat Portman than to win an open seat. Good news for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

I expect this to be like KS-SEN 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

There's literally no way this flips. Even against Donald Trump in 2020, in the best possible national environment for Democrats thanks to COVID, Dems couldn't even come close. Mandel (or the eventual R nominee) might be trailing in the polls, but they'll still win by at least 10 points in the general election.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't care what polling says, it's not happening.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1379059064680894468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

It would seem as though Republicans have the momentum for 2022. Of course, that's to be expected.

[SnowLabrador]

He would probably be the weakest possible candidate and likely the only one who would have a decent chance of losing the seat
https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382707919867809792?s=20

Don't give me hope.

[SnowLabrador]

This tweet doesn't matter, if anything it helps him. This isn't 2006 anymore. Mandel, if nominated, could be caught on camera assaulting a minor and still win by double digits. Scandals no longer matter electorally when Republicans are involved.

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully he wins the primary and blows the general.

I'd love that. Sadly, Ohio is just too red.

[SnowLabrador]

Primary polling is even worse than general election polling. Throw it in the trash.

[SnowLabrador]

Sure Racism this open has gotta hurt him.
https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1433786223596871685

Nope, it's gonna help him. This is what Ohioans want.

[SnowLabrador]

Recently, I caught up with a friend who is a native Ohioan and works for a Republican member from Ohio. FWIW, he's convinced that Ryan would beat either Mandel or Vance.

I call BS on that. Ohio voted 12% to the right of the nation in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1466512403269521409

It sucks that Tim Ryan's gonna lose by like 8+ points, he's really great.

What sucks even more is that Mandel, who's basically just a right-wing Twitter troll at this point, is going to win easily.

[SnowLabrador]

That probably means something; Portman won by 21 points in 2016.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

[SnowLabrador]

Perhaps Indiana 2012?

[SnowLabrador]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

I don't like Vance, but I have to agree with this.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

It's Vance+3

Vance 45%, Ryan 42%

Safe R. It's not getting any better for Ryan from here on out.

[SnowLabrador]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

[SnowLabrador]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

This is a legitimate point, but it's hard for me to imagine anyone saying, "I don't like Trump, but I'm going to vote for him because he's currently President." It wasn't just incumbency that caused Trump to win Ohio by 8 points.

[SnowLabrador]

If there's one thing that restrains any optimism I may have for this race, it is the relative competence of the Ohio Republican Party. They know how to win as much as the Florida Democratic Party knows how to lose.

I mean, they lost to Sherrod Brown in 2018. They're likely to beat him in 2024, admittedly. But I think a better analogy is the Florida Republicans, who organize like there's an election every week.

Back to this race, while Vance's responses are horrific, they're not going to cost him politically. Nobody who supported abortion rights or gay marriage was ever going to vote for Vance. He'll still win comfortably because it's Ohio and we can't have nice things.

[SnowLabrador]

Ryan lost by 7 points. That doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2024.