OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stivers probably runs and wins easily unless he loses to some random whacko in the primary like Jim Renacci or John Becker (the latter of whom is basically Ohio's version of MTG).  The real significance of this is that it likely means Stivers won't end up running against Brown as many had assumed which increases the chances of Brown facing someone like Jim Jordan or Troy Balderson who is actually capable of blowing a statewide race in Ohio against Brown.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gomez also says she's being encouraged by the local Dem establishment, so bad news for Tim Ryan. Meanwhile on the GOP side...

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1354910436337061892

anyone have insights on timken?

OH GOP chair, Harvard and American University Law, well connected and well liked by all factions of the party. I think she's the front runner for the seat.

I think it's between her and Mandel since Jordan isn't running. The latter was admittedly a big surprise to me , but I suppose he understands he has more capacity for inflicting the maximum amount of evil in the world likely taking over as house Judiciary chair in 2 years.

Eh, I’m admittedly not as in the loop as I used to be, but Timken seems like a generic Trumpist imo.  I doubt she gets very far if Davison runs (although she could be a spoiler).  Regardless of whether Timken runs or not, I think Mandel’s main competition will be from one of the House members still considering the race.  The nomination is probably still Stivers’ if he wants it and I could also see Warren Davison (a.k.a. bargain basement Jim Jordan) being a strong contender in the primary if he runs b/c without Jordan, he’s probably the best-positioned to out-Trumpist the other candidates.  I don’t see a path to the nomination for Dolan, especially if Mandel runs.

David Joyce is definitely interested although he might (rightly imo) decide he needs a more fractured primary field to win.  Bill Johnson is apparently also considering a run, but he has the Joyce problem of needing a clown-car primary field (although his path is a little less narrow than Joyce’s).  And that’s assuming LaRose, Yost, Faber (ROTFL) sit things out.

I do wonder what happens if Mandel doesn’t run.  He probably will, but I wonder if folks aren’t sleeping on that possibility a bit. 

As for the Dems, I think Tim Ryan missed his shot.  We’re better off running Dr. Acton or Nan Whaley for Senate (assuming Cordray is done with elected politics, if not then we should obviously run him) and then run John Cranley for Governor.  Cranley would be a great wave insurance candidate here, but IIRC he’s pretty set on running for Governor.

Tim Ryan could be LG (Whaley would be a better choice imo), but even then, his whole thing was supposed to be unique appeal to WWC voters in places like Trumbull, Mahoning, Portage, and to a lesser degree Summit counties.  He had an embarrassingly weak showing in 2020 against an unheralded C-list Trump cultist former state representative, so I don’t think he has any special appeal with those folks. 

Plus, IIRC, Ryan doesn’t have much money in his campaign accounts, so he doesn’t help there either.  At least Whaley is fairly popular in the biggest city of a competitive region.  At this point, Tim Ryan should probably be our nominee for Auditor since Faber is the weak link of the Republican row officers and if he’ll over-perform against anyone in NE Ohio, it’ll be against Faber. 

TL; DR: This starts off Likely R with the potential to shift to Lean R if the Republicans nominate a clown like Warren Davison.  Honestly, the Democrats probably need Jim Renacci or John Becker (LOL) to somehow win the Republican nomination to actually have a real chance of flipping, but I suppose it’s not impossible to imagine Warren Davison at least giving Republicans a scare if he’s the nominee (I doubt he’d actually lose though).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My guess is Dr. Acton didn’t want to run.  Even so, Ryan is the wrong guy.  We’d be better off either running a rising star to raise their profile or running someone like Nan Whaley who will over-perform in a region or demographic that is actually open to voting for us (even if you think we can stop the bleeding with WWC voters, Tim Ryan won’t over-perform with them the way Zack Space* did in 2018* Ryan only beat frigging Christina Hagen by single-digits). 

I suppose it could be worse, at least this means we’re probably not running Michael Coleman (great Mayor, terrible statewide candidate, also hasn’t run for anything since 2006).

*Space definitely has some real crossover over appeal in Appalachia - at least to a point - but even that wasn’t enough to beat Keith Faber in a D wave and IIRC Faber was about as weak as you can get while still being generic R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think Dr. Acton's decision making would influence Ryan's here. Acton could still run, but Ryan would beat her in a primary.

I meant, Dr. Acton probably won’t run either way b/c from what I’ve heard through the grapevine, she doesn’t like the spotlight and was very resistant to the idea when the DSCC reached out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I've always liked Mandel (and his 2012 Senate campaign was the first one I ever volunteered for), so he tentatively has my vote, in spite of my generally anti-Trump valence.

I suppose someone somewhere has to like Mandel.  You must be that person

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still don’t understand why a state chair is a good candidate for a U.S. Senate seat? What about the several congresspeople and row officers with elected experience and a more front-and-center role in politics?

She’s basically Generic Trumpist, nothing special

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still don’t understand why a state chair is a good candidate for a U.S. Senate seat? What about the several congresspeople and row officers with elected experience and a more front-and-center role in politics?

She’s basically Generic Trumpist, nothing special

So is Mandel.

No, Mandel’s basically the Ohio version of Josh Hawley except with the “likability” of Ted Cruz.  He’s weaker than generic Trumpist.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Forgive me if he has and I've missed it, but I'm surprised Warren Davidson isn't considering a bid.

He is, as are Stivers, Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose, Bill Johnson, Mike Turner, Brad Weinstrup, and David Joyce last I checked.  It could turn out to be just Mandel and Timken, but I doubt it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who cares, Tim Ryan can compete with anyone

Safe R, whether Ryan runs or not..

Vance is one actually someone I could easily see blowing it, actually.  That said, I doubt he runs and if he does then he won’t be the nominee.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What do people think about the effort to draft Jimmy Dore for Senate in Ohio?

The Cincinnati Enquirer has already pretty much anointed Amy Acton as the Democratic nominee, even though she's a Republican who worked for Mike DeWine. Who are real progressives supposed to vote for if Acton is the nominee?

Dr. Acton.  You know, the one who isn't a Trump supporter.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dr. Acton.  You know, the one who isn't a Trump supporter.

I'm not either.

Jimmy Dore is

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dr. Acton.  You know, the one who isn't a Trump supporter.

I'm not either.

Jimmy Dore is

Actually he isn't.

Actually he is a Trump supporter in much the same way that Jfern, Glenn Greenwald, and any Bernie or Bust voters who voted for the Get Republicans Elected Every November in so-called “protest” were/are Trump supporters for all meaningful purposes.  Dore also has a history of deliberately peddling false rape accusations as a calculated political tactic.  

Fortunately, no one here has heard of him nor would Ohio Democrats want anything to do with him even if they had heard of him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If it's Timken Vs Ryan, I could see a path towards a D Win. If it's Vance vs Ryan or Mandel vs Ryan, Ds won't win.

I see it as the opposite, Timken would beat Ryan easily while Mandel and Vance would both struggle.

Vance would struggle and is capable of blowing the race.  Mandel might win by an underwhelming margin (or not ) and Republicans might get tricked into wasting some money, but he’d almost certainly beat Ryan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Ryan outperformed Biden in his district by 5.2% (winning by 8.6% vs Biden's 3.4%). If we carry that through the entire state (which is generous) he would've lost to a generic Republican opponent by 2.8% statewide in 2020. Not to mention, this race was thought to be "Safe D" so the Republican didn't receive any national attention. Why does anybody believe with that set of facts that Mandel or anybody would "struggle" against him?

Define “struggle.”  Mandel is an awful and pretty widely despised candidate.  There’s every reason to think he *might* win by an underwhelming margin if Ryan runs a strong campaign.  Now, if you mean “will Mandel lose to Ryan absent a ginormous Democratic wave and/or career-ending scandal,” then of course not.  However, I’d argue the latter is way too narrow a definition of “struggle” and it’s easy to imagine Republicans wasting some money here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Spicy hot take: This senate race will be much closer than expected (although the GOPer will win in the end) and will trick Atlas into thinking Ohio is still a swing state in 2024.

Quote this in a year and a half.

This.  Right now, Brown has about a 40% chance of winning.  However, that could easily go up or down quite a bit depending on several factors:

1) What does the national mood/Biden’s popularity look like? 

2) Who do Republicans nominate?  If it’s someone like Jordan, Davidson, Faber, or (albeit to a somewhat lesser degree) Bill Johnson then Brown is probably slightly favored all things being equal.  Someone like Dolan, Yost, Turner, Stivers, or LaRose would be a much tougher opponent.  Weinstrup, Joyce, Gibbs, or Sprague would probably be a wash.

3) Who is the Republican POTUS nominee?  If it’s Trump, then that’s bad for Brown.  If not then Brown may actually benefit from a less energized GOP base. 

4) What, if any, reversion to the norm is there w/o Trump in 2022 in places like Trumbull County if Tim Ryan is the Democratic nominee?

5) Does Brown’s campaign realize that he needs a new winning coalition compared to even 2018?  This one, at least, is probably a yes, so that’s good.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

Boccieri couldn’t even win his own state senate district in 2018, his career in elected office is over.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

Boccieri couldn’t even win his own state senate district in 2018, his career in elected office is over.

Man, Ohio Democrats are in sorry shape.  It's hard to even identify promising up-and-comers.  Yech!

Zach Klein and Kristen Boggs come to mind, but what you say is true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

Nan Whaley is so much better than John Cranley, it's not even funny.

Why?  On paper Cranley seems like a much stronger candidate, but I’d be curious to know your thoughts.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH-22: The Buckeye is a Toxic Nut

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/PunchbowlNews/status/1384141066102738950

Great news if he’s done with elected office, but I still worry about him running in 2024.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Good, Vance is one of the few people genuinely capable of blowing the GE if Tim Ryan runs a strong campaign and 2022 isn't a Republican wave election.  Doesn't mean he will, but it's at least possible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959

Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

Mandel, Timkin, and Vance is a pretty divided Trumpist field.  I’d say if at least one of Davidson, Johnson, or maybe even Mike Turner (for geographic politics reasons, especially if he runs a Trumpy campaign) jumps in too and Joyce stays out then he has a very real shot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959
Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

Mandel, Timkin, and Vance is a pretty divided Trumpist field.  I’d say if at least one of Davidson, Johnson, or maybe even Mike Turner (for geographic politics reasons, especially if he runs a Trumpy campaign) jumps in too and Joyce stays out then he has a very real shot.

Mike Turner has a pretty moderate reputation, so I think he'd actually take that lane, agreed on the other two.

Yeah, but his base (especially once you get outside of Dayton proper and it’s immediate suburbs) is the sort of area where Dolan would get killed.  Turner being a regional favorite son who goes nowhere in the rest of the state could easily be a net positive for Dolan.  That said, Davidson or Johnson jumping in would obviously be better than Turner for Dolan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Appalachian Congressman Bill Johnson will not be running for Senate next year. I’d wager the Republican field is probably set at this point.

Edit: Assuming Vance and/or Dolan make it official.

You don’t think Turner might jump in?