2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not forget AK it's a 3 person race, Murkowski is favored but we have to see what happens on 8/16, but Mary Peltola was beating Palin but losing to Begich, once 8/16 the is resolved we will kñow about AK

No polling most of our primaries will be over and FL 13 in September anyways

[GALeftist]

WRT Youngkin winning/Murphy almost losing when the generic ballot was ~D+3, it's worth noting that polling at the time had, on average:

- Youngkin 48.2, McAuliffe 46.9, undecided/other 5.0, Youngkin+1.4
- Murphy 50.5, Ciattarelli 42.7, undecided/other 6.8, Murphy+7.8

Final results were:

- Youngkin 50.6, McAuliffe 48.6, other 0.8, Youngkin+2.0
- Murphy 51.2, Ciattarelli 48.0, other 0.8, Murphy+3.2

These were the same polls that were showing Democrats leading the GCB and they were not horrible misses. VA was obviously very close, but even NJ wasn't that bad; taking the polls at face value, A. Ciattarelli did better with the undecideds than Youngkin, and B. there were more undecideds in NJ than VA. It's not like the polls had Murphy at 55 or something like that. So, if the polls are consistent with both reality and with a D+3 GCB, why are we using 2021 as evidence that they are faulty? I can think of a number of reasons why there might be a split between the numbers. For one thing, both these states are trending left, so it's unsurprising that they'd have some residual strength for opposite party gubernatorial candidates, same as Kentucky or whatever. For another, voters might prioritize things in Congress that wouldn't make sense to prioritize in gubernatorial races or vice-versa. Honestly, if these states had had Senate races in 2021, I think Democrats would have won both and NJ would not have been close. Thirdly, a LV screen probably makes the GCB about even. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the GCB had a much higher number of other/undecideds – 15.6% – than either set of gubernatorial polls did. If the midterms had been held then, my guess is that undecideds would have broken for Republicans and they would have won the house popular vote by maybe 3 points or so.

All this is to say that I do not think there is any good evidence in favor of there having been a big polling miss in 2021 gubernatorial races.

[Brittain33]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs don't want to pass things they want to keep taxes low that's all they want to do, McConnell said if Rs in charge no new programs and Trump said he's gonna cut Govt employees

[Young Conservative]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

The economy is worsening, and GOP small dollar donors are more working class than the college educated wine moms who dominate ActBlue. This makes sense to me.

[Brittain33]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

The economy is worsening, and GOP small dollar donors are more working class than the college educated wine moms who dominate ActBlue. This makes sense to me.

Maybe they feel they don’t need to donate because after 40 years of fighting they won on Roe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

The economy is worsening, and GOP small dollar donors are more working class than the college educated wine moms who dominate ActBlue. This makes sense to me.

Maybe they feel they don’t need to donate because after 40 years of fighting they won on Roe.

Lol did you hear what McConnell said out of his own mouth if Rs get control NO NEW PROGRAMS and Trump said he is gonna cut employees, who is gonna DONATE FOR THAT EXCEPT THE PARTISAN

Rs gave us Stimulus checks under 9 percent unemployment in 2020, there are no more stimulus checks, voters are gonna see should Rs get in control nothing is gonna change and we're gonna have to start paying Paygo for Students Loans

We haven't had a Stimulus check since March 2021

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied now at 47-47.

Their last poll in mid-June had R+4, 49-45.

https://www.cygn.al/july-national-voter-trends-panel/

[President Johnson]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied now at 47-47.

Their last poll in mid-June had R+4, 49-45.

https://www.cygn.al/july-national-voter-trends-panel/

Somehow it feels like Democrats have gained around across the board in recent weeks. Of course, doesn't matter much as the election is months away.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552097132156522497

Poll is from a Republican partisan org, and has Biden's approval at 36/54.

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult GCB steady at D+4, 45-41

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/07/26150218/2207127_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_07-27-22_SH.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker moves to D+6 this week (44/38) after being at D+3 for the last couple weeks.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ldb835m1bk/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1552306482934419459

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1552361352978542592

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552097132156522497

Poll is from a Republican partisan org, and has Biden's approval at 36/54.

Was 45-44 R+1 in May. Democrats have also gained a few points in "Confidence to handle issues" though the R's still lead.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Suffolk now at D+4 on the GCB, 44-40.

They were one of the most bullish pollsters on Rs this year.

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/7_28_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=4F682989707021DD87FA56D227603197F8E43228

[wbrocks67]

and two more GCBs added to 538:

Newsnation: D+1, 44-43
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: D+2, 48-46

538 average down to R+0.2.

[Sir Mohamed]

and two more GCBs added to 538:

Newsnation: D+1, 44-43
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: D+2, 48-46

538 average down to R+0.2.

A tied NPV would still lead to a GOP majority in the House. That said, they would be kept way below 230 seats.

[Devils30]

A 50.5-48 Dem popular vote win would give them a chance to keep the House. This is why the DCCC can't listen to the bedwetting against pro impeachment Rs. Dems have to win the MI-3, OH-1, CA 22,27 and NM-2 places to offset any losses.

[wesmoorenerd]

A tied NPV could easily still result in a D majority. There are 215 seats that lean to the left of the national average, you really don't think they could pick off three more with good incumbents?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

FWIW, 538 is currently predicting almost no PVI advantage for either party.  See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/ and scroll down to the section "How the popular vote for the House translates into seats".

[Person Man]

Who knew trying to install a theocracy wouldn’t be that popular?

[Devils30]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

[Cyrusman]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?