2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Fox has GCB at R+3, 44-41.

They had it at R+3 in June as well, 47-44.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-say-economy-bad-expect-get-worse?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&mibextid=CqRI5M&fs=e&s=cl

The sample is a little high on "abortion should be illegal" at 46% based on national polls in the past but Fox is a solid pollster.

That sounds about right, since it's close to the percentage Trump got in both 2016 and 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Are Republicans even trying?

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1548692194030194689

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1548728935118041088

[It’s so Joever]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

[UncleSam]

Are Republicans even trying?

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1548692194030194689

Please pin this for November when Rs win 2 or 3 of these races. Fundraising barely matters statewide, having a 2-1 spending advantage means almost nothing in a house district when your opponent is running a real campaign. There’s just not that much to do with all that extra money.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is losing in every poll Rs don't own the Ref states gas prices are going way down, for the last time Biden isn't Hillary 2=o

Have you looked at the state by state polls you guys are losing in every one of them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dobbs just like the war in Ukraine is effecting polls the Dobbs decision has hurt Rs, but the Ukraine war helps Rs, Rs need to realize it's not 2004, it's still a 303 map we're gonna win MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, CO and NV we will see about the others but all this talk about an R sweep isn't gonna happen

Even before Dobbs it still was a 303 map

[wbrocks67]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

Of course it doesn't. But people really trying to pull this "money doesn't matter!" narrative are just being incredibly naive. Of course it matters, and it especially matters in competitive races.

So funny now that Rs are doing badly in the money race and all of a sudden fundraising makes no difference.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

Of course it doesn't. But people really trying to pull this "money doesn't matter!" narrative are just being incredibly naive. Of course it matters, and it especially matters in competitive races.

So funny now that Rs are doing badly in the money race and all of a sudden fundraising makes no difference.

There seems to be a misunderstanding on this board.

Republicans like polls but simultaneous realize that they are generally too favorable to Dems. It’s not about disliking polls that don’t fit the narrative and it’s not unique to this cycle.

Republicans don’t think fundraising means anything and it’s not unique to this cycle. And yes it is becoming apparent that fundraising has been traditionally overrated, as Nate silver just reduced the amount of weight it has in his model

[UncleSam]

Fundraising numbers used to be a good publicly-accessible metric for how much support various candidates have amongst their own partys’ establishment. The problem is that as Democrats have garnered more and more of the college white vote, they’ve also begun massively outspending Rs on the campaign trail (especially since 2016), particularly at the senate level. We have seen the results amongst a more partisan, online-oriented electorate (where it is cheaper than ever before to get your message out), and they’ve been…not great.

Dems lit hundreds of millions on fire in senate races they didn’t come within even eight points of winning in 2020 (see: SC, ME, KY, etc.).

The reality is that while in-state dollars matter a little, out-of-state fundraising can often be actively counterproductive due to opening up an easy new line of attack for your opponent. And Dems have way more mega donors than Rs do these days, which is not translating to results in many places.

So no, the fundraising numbers don’t really matter all that much - we’ve seen this show before. If you could dig up in-state fundraising dollars though, that would be way more interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Fundraising numbers used to be a good publicly-accessible metric for how much support various candidates have amongst their own partys’ establishment. The problem is that as Democrats have garnered more and more of the college white vote, they’ve also begun massively outspending Rs on the campaign trail (especially since 2016), particularly at the senate level. We have seen the results amongst a more partisan, online-oriented electorate (where it is cheaper than ever before to get your message out), and they’ve been…not great.

Dems lit hundreds of millions on fire in senate races they didn’t come within even eight points of winning in 2020 (see: SC, ME, KY, etc.).

The reality is that while in-state dollars matter a little, out-of-state fundraising can often be actively counterproductive due to opening up an easy new line of attack for your opponent. And Dems have way more mega donors than Rs do these days, which is not translating to results in many places.

So no, the fundraising numbers don’t really matter all that much - we’ve seen this show before. If you could dig up in-state fundraising dollars though, that would be way more interesting.

I think metrics like the Fetterman/Oz race are definitely points that stand out, as in you have one candidate raising $5M worth of contributions <$200 and the other... $150K.

I think the point here is that even as Dems get more of the upper middle class/college+ vote, you'd still expect Rs to be doing well since this should be an incredibly easy environment for them to raise $$$. If they can't raise it during a midterm where Bidens approval is <40%, then that is a terrible look for them imo.

And it's not like Rs cant raise money. Look at Louisiana - Kennedy raised $8M+. Scott raised $4M+ in SC. Johnson raised $6-7M in WI. It's not like it's not possible - so to me, it's rightfully a bad look when others in competitive swing races are barely doing anything.

[wesmoorenerd]

Fundraising numbers used to be a good publicly-accessible metric for how much support various candidates have amongst their own partys’ establishment. The problem is that as Democrats have garnered more and more of the college white vote, they’ve also begun massively outspending Rs on the campaign trail (especially since 2016), particularly at the senate level. We have seen the results amongst a more partisan, online-oriented electorate (where it is cheaper than ever before to get your message out), and they’ve been…not great.

Dems lit hundreds of millions on fire in senate races they didn’t come within even eight points of winning in 2020 (see: SC, ME, KY, etc.).

The reality is that while in-state dollars matter a little, out-of-state fundraising can often be actively counterproductive due to opening up an easy new line of attack for your opponent. And Dems have way more mega donors than Rs do these days, which is not translating to results in many places.

So no, the fundraising numbers don’t really matter all that much - we’ve seen this show before. If you could dig up in-state fundraising dollars though, that would be way more interesting.

I think metrics like the Fetterman/Oz race are definitely points that stand out, as in you have one candidate raising $5M worth of contributions <$200 and the other... $150K.

I think the point here is that even as Dems get more of the upper middle class/college+ vote, you'd still expect Rs to be doing well since this should be an incredibly easy environment for them to raise $$$. If they can't raise it during a midterm where Bidens approval is <40%, then that is a terrible look for them imo.

And it's not like Rs cant raise money. Look at Louisiana - Kennedy raised $8M+. Scott raised $4M+ in SC. Johnson raised $6-7M in WI. It's not like it's not possible - so to me, it's rightfully a bad look when others in competitive swing races are barely doing anything.

I can definitely buy fundraising being a bigger deal in races with a D incumbent or no incumbent at all and an R candidate who's running a lazy campaign. Oz and Vance seem like perfect examples -- they're blowing their chances at defining themselves and they won't have the money to make much of a dent in the narrative later on in the campaign.

[Gracile]

The NRCC has added 10 more candidates to their "Young Guns" program:

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1549368903310131203

They have also identified multiple candidates as part of their "On the Radar" list - which as far as I can tell includes candidates who haven't officially been nominated (FL-15, NH-02, the NY seats) and various reach seats (CO-07, IL-08, PA-12):

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1547938901607608323

[wbrocks67]

The GOP thinking it has a chance in PA-06 and PA-12 is... a lot.

But the NRSC also tried to say they would aim for Dean in PA-04 too, so.

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS has GCB at 46-46 (same poll has Biden 38/62 approval)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

This is pertinent too:

The overwhelming majority (88%) of voters who approve of Biden plan to vote Democratic in this year’s midterms; among voters who disapprove, 70% plan to vote Republican and 19% to vote Democratic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS has GCB at 46-46 (same poll has Biden 38/62 approval)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

This is pertinent too:

The overwhelming majority (88%) of voters who approve of Biden plan to vote Democratic in this year’s midterms; among voters who disapprove, 70% plan to vote Republican and 19% to vote Democratic.

This is yet another poll that supports the theory that a chunk of Biden's disapproval is coming from Democrats who will nevertheless support the party in the midterms.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

[wbrocks67]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

[UncleSam]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

You’re missing the biggest problem with this poll, which is that it is RV rather than LV, which is near-inexcusable at this point. Enthusiasm gap matters at this point. It’s also weighted to a presidential general electorate in terms of race, which is ludicrous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

You’re missing the biggest problem with this poll, which is that it is RV rather than LV, which is near-inexcusable at this point. Enthusiasm gap matters at this point. It’s also weighted to a presidential general electorate in terms of race, which is ludicrous.

The polls just goofed up the MD Gov race and most polls had FRANCHOT winning Rs are so much believe in polls and we still have to Vote

The MD poll just proved that you can't trust POLLS don't Rs ever learn about Poll

[wbrocks67]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

You’re missing the biggest problem with this poll, which is that it is RV rather than LV, which is near-inexcusable at this point. Enthusiasm gap matters at this point. It’s also weighted to a presidential general electorate in terms of race, which is ludicrous.

I don't think LV would change much here, maybe a pt or two. They have GOP and Dem "motivated to vote" at nearly the same level

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult has GCB at D+4, 45-41, similar to last week

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/07/19133716/2207093_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_07-20-22_SH.pdf

YouGov/Economist has it D+3, 43-40

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1549746177981251586

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uncle Sam and many Rs like to cherry pick Biden Approvals and not look at the state by state polls if Biden Approvaks are so bad Murray wouldn't be winning 51/33%

Rs, BUT, BUT THE POLLS, YEAH THE POLLS LIKE PA R PRIMARY WERE WRONG THEY PICKED FRANCHOT instead of Perez and Perez had the momentum and thus Moore won

[UncleSam]

Uncle Sam and many Rs like to cherry pick Biden Approvals and not look at the state by state polls if Biden Approvaks are so bad Murray wouldn't be winning 51/33%

Rs, BUT, BUT THE POLLS, YEAH THE POLLS LIKE PA R PRIMARY WERE WRONG THEY PICKED FRANCHOT instead of Perez and Perez had the momentum and thus Moore won

Can you point to literally a single time in any thread anywhere on this board where I have referred to Bidens’ approvals as being indicative of Dem vote share or in any way predictive of the future outside of the broadest ‘Biden isn’t super popular = tough midterm environment’ takes?

Yes I agree that many Rs on this forum keep saying stuff like ‘Biden is at X so Dems won’t get more than Y’ and there are obviously many more Biden disapprovers who will nevertheless vote D this November than there typically would be.

The rest of your post is nonsense and I’m only 69% sure I’m not replying to a bot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am an optimist when it comes to voting until the last vote is counted didn't the models say D's were gonna net gain H seats and win ME and NC in 2020 they were wrong then and they are wrong in WI all the pundits had Walker fav in 2018 and like Johnson,  they have him as the clear Fav, Walker lost and so will Johnson