2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

NBC News Generic Ballot Poll : D+5

D : 47% (-1 vs October 2020)
R : 42% (-1 vs October 2020)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20690434-210098-nbc-news-april-poll-4-25-21-release

(By the way they have Biden approval at +8 among RVs and the sample is D+8)

The sample is a bit D friendly, isn't it? Anyways, so far out that pretty much tells us nothing. Biden isn't even prez for 100 days.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1388158440430788611

[Sir Mohamed]

Even if the Quinnipiac poll doesn't have a GOP bias, it's for sure nowhere near we'd like to see it. Dems must get better at messaging: Do they really want to have a party back in power that still embraces an orange buffoon who wanted to overturn American democracy and a party that is filled anti-intellectual, conspiracy loving hacks that have no real policy priorities to help average Americans? A party that has been absolutely ignorant when it comes to upholding basic norms and the rule of law?

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting report about Afghanistan and the midterms I'd like to share here:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429591518017429505

Republican efforts to saddle the Democrats with fallout from the fall of Kabul won't necessarily fly with voters — or instill fears in midterm candidates.

Why it matters: Axios traveled to Virginia’s 7th District last week, where Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for re-election in a bellwether district. She focused solely on selling President Biden’s stimulus package and the bipartisan infrastructure deal still working its way through Congress.

    In conversations the congresswoman had with her Richmond-area constituents, Afghanistan didn't come up.
    She drew greater reaction for her efforts to bring broadband to rural areas.
    “We might not have a Taliban, but with the Capitol insurrection and the partisanship, we don’t have a government that functions,” said Carena Ives, a 53-year-old restaurant owner. “We need to focus on home.”

What they're saying: It’s just one piece of evidence, albeit anecdotal, that Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal may not be the political cudgel Republicans hope for the midterms.

    “I don’t blame Trump. I don’t blame Biden, because he continued the withdrawal. We can’t perfect the world,” said Annie Tobey, 61.
    Elyse Shoenig, 75, whose late husband was a Vietnam veteran, said when she saw the images from the fall of Kabul, she was immediately reminded of Saigon.
    Asked whether it will affect the way she votes, she replied, “Not yet. But I will need to see the situation play out.”

...

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1434993713219055621

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt GOP is really ahead in the GCB by 7 or 8.  A lot of this are marginal Dems not saying they will vote Dem due to the most recent drubbing in elections due to the embarrassment factor.  They will still mostly turnout in 2022 and vote Dem.

Yup, especially with such a high number of undecided. A 44-37% for example is a different lead than polls showing a race at 52-45%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1458077857683591175

[Sir Mohamed]

Disaster poll. The only saving grace for Democrats at this point may be gerrymandering CA and NY as much as possible. This poll would be something like a 60-70 seat gain for Republicans regardless. This is the "Pascrell in danger" scenario.

This would likely be more like R+50.  Something like that would pretty much relegate the Democratic Party to the minor party Republicans were from 1932-1938.

Democrats would have to lose at least a 100 seats for that and even then they wouldn’t be as bad as a position as the GOP were from 1932-1938.

Well you have to remember that in 1932-1938 Dems about 20-30 very conservative members from the south.  So really, you should add 20-30 to the Republican number to get the true level of conservative strength in congress then.

Even then republicans still would have to get to 280-290 seats to get to that level . I’d say 1958-1966 is a better comparison if you make that adjustment than 1932-1938.

There aren't enough competitive or semi-competitive seats today for either party get below 170-175 seats. The GOP in 2014 at 247 seats was pretty much maxed out.

If HRC was elected in 2016 and 2018 ended up an R wave, I don't think the GOP would have made more than 10-15 seats net gain.

[Sir Mohamed]

Q was discredited in 2018 and 2020 for heavy D-bias. Did they change to the opposite now? One way or the other, I won't take this pollster seriously until they get at least one election cycle straight.

[Sir Mohamed]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

It won't be this much, but if seriously believing Dems would be headed for 2002 or 1998 redux under Sanders and any other Dem POTUS, is just ludicrous. We might not even have a 50-50 senate now. So no BIF or Covid relief bill would have been passed at all.

[Sir Mohamed]

and now Rasmussen at 50-50

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1544349237571371015

LOL, GOP in disarray?

That said, it's still too early for hard predictions, overall the GOP remains the heavy favorite for the House majority. Senate is pretty much a 50-50 chance as we speak.

[Sir Mohamed]

and two more GCBs added to 538:

Newsnation: D+1, 44-43
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: D+2, 48-46

538 average down to R+0.2.

A tied NPV would still lead to a GOP majority in the House. That said, they would be kept way below 230 seats.

[Sir Mohamed]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

If that was just true and held up till November 8. Let's defy history and defeat the extremist GOP! I can still dream, can I?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1557063720987140098

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't James getting hit for being a carpetbagger in that district too? vs. someone who actually lives there?

The question is how much that will matter in the end. At some point, partisan leanings are just difficult to overcome.

[Sir Mohamed]

New CBS/YouGov poll of LVs has R+2 in GCB, 47-45.

Was R+2 in July, 45-43.

Interesting though that in July their poll indicated an R+4 LV turnout model. Now it indicates an R+2 turnout model, which aligns with what we've been seeing with Dems closing the enthusiasm gap.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I1kCPBeysGALnPoddxMP_Ch6Ki9WApf0/view

Tbh, if this accurate, it may actually be close to a tie in terms of seats. If Dems could gain at least another point and win the NPV by 3, we might hold the House. It's within reach, but I don't get my hopes up. At least not yet. If this picture holds into October, I'd be more optimistic.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems this a general pattern, especially in presidential cycles. W Bush, Obama and Trump all looked more vulnerable than they ended up being. Important factor this midterm cycles is also the GOP seems to have screwed up with their candidates.

Momentum is for sure on the Dem side in recent weeks. If we can just keep it going till November and into the 2024 cycle.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/

I think Arizona is pre-mature. For some reason I don’t trust the polls there.

Kelly's leads have all been pretty much outside the MoE.

Yup, I'd consider AZ-Sen Lean D as well. At least as we speak. May change between now and early November.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

Most early voters vote Democratic though. Republicans need to work on the election day turnout.

Yup, this. The last 2 months were also different since Labor Day weekend is usually considered the (un)official begin of the campaign.

I'm just cautious because I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed again. I've just been fooled by the polls too often. Especially earlier polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1567871569787064320

[Sir Mohamed]

If there were just less undecideds in these polls.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570051543604383744

[Sir Mohamed]

Numbers keep getting better? Really encouraging. Question remains whether that holds, though the GOP is starting to run out of time to turn the tide. I think that's increasingly unlikely; we just need to keep in mind that a small shift would already be enough for them to at least win the House.

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

I wouldn't take it too seriously, but gives at least some orientation where things are standing. After all, elections are still decided in individual districts. That said, I'm sure your posts would look different with a R+5 GCB polling average.